November 2, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Day of the Dead, Mexico.
All Souls Day, Roman Catholic calendar.

November 2, 1936: The British Broadcasting Corporation begins the BBC Television Service, the world’s first regular “high definition” channel.  We now know it as BBC1, as it was named in 1964.
November 2, 1947: Howard Hughes piloted his huge wooden airplane, the Spruce Goose, on its only flight, which lasted about a minute over Long Beach Harbor in California.  Go to article »

Marie Antoinette, Queen Consort of Louis XVI of France, b.1755.
Daniel Boone, frontiersman, b. 1734.

This dashcam video is cracking up cops.  A man’s unusual behavior during a traffic stop has officers comparing him to Forrest Gump. Watch the video here.

Five women help doctors crack the mystery of long Covid.

$50,000 Japanese turntable is what your vinyl’s been waiting for.

Wreck of 17th-century warship discovered in Sweden: The wreck of a 17th-century Swedish warship called Äpplet — a sister ship of the famous Vasa, which sank only an hour into its maiden voyage in 1628 — has been discovered in the intricate waterways that lead to Stockholm, where it was deliberately sunk to protect the city from seaborne attacks in 1659.  The wreck is near the island of Vaxholm, but its exact location and depth are being kept secret; access to the site is controlled by the Swedish navy because the wreck is in a militarily sensitive area near the Swedish capital. Full Story: Live Science (10/31)

Enormous river discovered beneath Antarctica is nearly 300 miles long:  A river longer than England’s Thames flows beneath the Antarctic ice sheet, draining an area the size of France and Germany combined, new research reveals.  This under-ice river was discovered using ice-penetrating radar mounted on aircraft. In a series of aerial surveys, researchers discovered a river system snaking 285 miles (460 kilometers) and draining into the Weddell Sea.
Full Story: Live Science (11/2)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Two costumed participants at France’s largest video game fair, Paris Games Week, which was held after the cancellation of two editions due to the pandemic
Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

New York, US
Dancers of the Paul Taylor dance company perform Scrudorama during a rehearsal at the Lincoln Center’s David H Koch Theater
Photograph: Sarah Yenesel/EPA

Michoac
án, MexicoA Day of the Dead celebration held by the Purépecha indigenous community of Cucuchucho, on the shores of Lake Pátzcuaro. People adorn the tombs of the dead and remain in the pantheon throughout the night waiting for their relatives. Tradition says that on the night of 1 November, the souls of the dead return to the world of the living
Photograph: Enrique Castro/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 2nd, 2022

Market
Index
Close Change
Dow
Jones
32147.76 -505.44
-1.55%
S&P 500 3759.69 -96.41
-2.50%
NASDAQ  10524.80 -366.05
-3.36%
TSX 19277.01 -240.70
-1.23%

International Markets

Market
Index
Close Change
NIKKEI 27663.39 -15.53
-0.06%
HANG
SENG
15827.17 +371.90
+2.41%
SENSEX 60906.09 -215.26
-0.35%
FTSE 100* 7144.14 -42.02
-0.58%

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond
3.332 3.242
CND.
30 Year
Bond
3.344 3.251
U.S.   
10 Year Bond
4.1005 4.0502
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.1405 4.1066

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.7288 0.7335
US
$
1.3721 1.3633
 
Euro Rate
1 Euro=
Inverse
Canadian $ 1.3464 0.7427
US 
0.9813 1.0191

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold
Fix 
1645.25 1639.00
Oil    
WTI Crude Future  90.00 88.37

Market Commentary:
📻 On this day in 1920, the first widespread commercial radio broadcast hit the air as station KDKA in Pittsburgh sent out bulletins on the Presidential election to an audience of hundreds of ham radio operators. The broadcast was made by Leo Rosenberg, speaking through a retooled telephone mouthpiece from a wooden shack on the roof of a Westinghouse factory. His first words were, “We shall now broadcast the election returns.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.2% at 19,277.01 in Toronto.

The move was the biggest since falling 1.5% on Oct. 14 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 7.1%.

Ero Copper Corp. had the largest drop, falling 17.8%.
Today, 194 of 236 shares fell, while 39 rose; all sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index fell 9.2%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* The index declined 8.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 13.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is unchanged in the past 5 days and rose 4.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.11t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 22.54% compared with 22.40% in the previous session and the average of 22.47% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -95.3828| -4.3| 3/47
Financials | -47.8755| -0.8| 3/25
Industrials | -30.6109| -1.2| 1/26
Information Technology | -26.7662| -2.5| 0/14
Consumer Discretionary | -12.1748| -1.7| 4/10
Energy | -10.6066| -0.3| 14/24
Consumer Staples | -7.0651| -0.9| 1/10
Real Estate | -4.0936| -0.9| 7/14
Health Care | -3.5446| -4.2| 0/7
Communication Services | -1.5290| -0.2| 1/6
Utilities | -1.0474| -0.1| 5/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines | -13.9100| -7.1| 105.3| -13.8
Brookfield Asset Management | -13.5700| -2.5| 26.8| -30.4
Barrick Gold | -11.9500| -4.8| 170.5| -18.5
Pembina Pipeline | 1.3380| 0.8| 33.1| 17.0
Tourmaline Oil | 2.2830| 1.4| -12.3| 107.8
TC Energy | 5.1550| 1.2| -6.7| 2.6

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks sold off as Jerome Powell continued to sound unequivocally hawkish as the Federal Reserve pushes ahead with it most-aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s to thwart inflation.
In a session of several ups and downs, the S&P 500 suffered its worst rout on a Fed decision day since January 2021.

Stocks moved decidedly lower after Powell said the Fed still has “some ways to go” in its policy cycle, adding that it’s premature to think about a pause as rates could peak at higher levels than previously thought.
Equities briefly rose when he said that a slower pace of hikes could come as soon as December.
Mega cap tech bore the brunt of the selling, with giants like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. tumbling more than 3.5%.

In late trading, Qualcomm Inc., the biggest maker of smartphone processors, slumped on a weak forecast.
Two-year US yields — which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves – reversed course and pushed higher. T
the dollar gained.
“When Powell made his comments regarding nothing pivot-related, or no shot of that, I think that was the ‘dagger’ for the market,” said Alon Rosin, head of institutional equity derivatives at Oppenheimer & Co.
The Federal Open Market Committee said that “ongoing increases” will still likely be needed to bring rates to a level that are “sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time,” in fresh language added to their statement.
Officials unanimously decided to lift the target for the benchmark rate by another 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its highest level since 2008.

Comments:
Ronald Temple, head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management: “This is not an environment in which the Fed will pivot or signal a pivot. To do so would be malpractice, and the Fed knows that. In December, the Fed will have two more inflation reports and two more jobs reports. Then, perhaps, the FOMC can signal a deceleration in tightening, but not before.”
Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery, strategists at BMO Capital Markets: “One thing is obvious from the Fed’s tone; ‘Santa Pause’ ain’t coming to town.”
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda: “Stocks might struggle here as the risk of the Fed taking rates above 5.00% are clearly still on the table.”
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA: “Of course data will largely determine the policy path going forward. Our best guess is that the Fed continues to take the more hawkish path.”
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial: “Factoring in the bond market’s assessment, markets are becoming increasingly convinced that the path towards the terminal rate will include a recession.”

Data Wednesday showed hiring at US companies rose in October by more than forecast, underscoring resilient labor demand despite the Fed’s efforts to cool the economy.
A strong job market has fueled fast wage growth, contributing to rapid inflation and putting pressure on the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy.
The Treasury halted the longest string of cutbacks to its quarterly sales of longer-term debt in about eight years, showcasing the end of a period of historic reduction in the fiscal deficit.
In corporate news, Boeing Co.’s chief said the plane maker could generate $10 billion in cash annually by mid-decade, once it turns around its operations after years of setbacks and miscues.

China has ordered a seven-day lockdown of the area around Foxconn Technology Group’s main plant in Zhengzhou, a move that will severely curtail shipments in and out of the world’s largest iPhone factory.
Key events this week:
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks

* The S&P 500 fell 2.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.7%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $0.9830
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.1395
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 147.77 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $20,245.42
* Ether fell 2.5% to $1,536.43

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.08%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.14%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 3.40%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $89.23 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.6% to $1,640 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang, Vildana Hajric and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Never does a person portray his own character more vividly than in his manner of portraying another.  -Jean Paul Richter, 1763-1825.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

November 1, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
All Saints Day, Christian calendar.

November 1, 1348: The Black Death pandemic reaches London, and goes on to kill approximately one third of the world’s population.
November 1, 1993: European Union established.
On Nov. 1, 1952, the United States exploded the first hydrogen bomb, in a test at Eniwetok in the Marshall Islands.  Go to article »

Astronomers spotted a ‘planet killer’ asteroid hiding in the sun’s glare.  While it may sound like a new movie plot, a massive near-Earth asteroid has actually been lurking undetected within the glare of the sun.

Actress Julia Roberts reveals Martin Luther King Jr. and Coretta Scott King paid the hospital bill for her birth.  Find out why the civil rights leaders paid for the birth of the woman who would become an international star.

Archaeologists in Sweden have unearthed two Viking swords in neighboring graves that were buried upright, as if they were standing on their points.  Whoever installed the iron swords perpendicular to the surface about 1,200 years ago clearly did so on purpose, as it would have taken a lot of effort — possibly involving a rock or hammer — to wedge the weapons roughly 16 inches (40 centimeters) into the ground, archaeologists told Live Science.
Full Story: Live Science (10/31)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Srinagar, India
People walk through the maple trees at Nishat Garden
Photograph: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty Images

London, England
Harbour of Dieppe: Changement de Domicile and Cologne, and The Arrival of a Packet-Boat: Evening, on view at the National Gallery as part of the Turner on Tour exhibition
Photograph: Guy Bell/REX/Shutterstock

San Cristobal de las Casas, Mexico
Women dressed as Catrinas parade through the city to celebrate the traditional Day of the Dead and Halloween
Photograph: Carlos López/EPA
Market Closes for November 1st, 2022

Market
Index
Close Change
Dow
Jones
32653.20 -79.75
-0.24%
S&P 500 3856.10 -15.88
-0.41%
NASDAQ  10890.85 -97.30
-0.89%
TSX 19517.71 +91.57
+0.47%

International Markets

Market
Index
Close Change
NIKKEI 27678.92 +91.46
+0.33%
HANG
SENG
15455.27 +768.25
+5.23%
SENSEX 61121.35 +374.76
+0.62%
FTSE 100* 7186.16 +91.63
+1.29%

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond
3.242 3.252
CND.
30 Year
Bond
3.251 3.287
U.S.   
10 Year Bond
4.0502 4.0478
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.1066 4.1596

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.7335 0.7340
US
$
1.3633 1.3624
 
Euro Rate
1 Euro=
Inverse
Canadian $ 1.3472 0.7423
US 
0.9881 1.0120

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold
Fix 
1639.00 1648.05
Oil    
WTI Crude Future  88.37 86.53

Market Commentary:
🔀 On this day in 1999, shortly after its 103rd birthday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average replaced four old companies—Chevron (a Dow member since 1984), Goodyear (a member since 1930), Sears (since 1924) and Union Carbide (since 1928) with four hot growth stocks—Home Depot, Intel, Microsoft and SBC Communications.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 19,517.71 in Toronto.

The index advanced to the highest closing level since Sept. 19 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 9.0%.

Hudbay Minerals Inc. had the largest increase, rising 12.0%.
Today, 156 of 236 shares rose, while 78 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index fell 8%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* The index declined 8.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.1% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 9.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 12.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.11t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.40% compared with 22.56% in the previous session and the average of 22.47% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 52.7926| 2.4| 46/5
Energy | 22.3719| 0.6| 27/11
Financials | 14.1184| 0.2| 16/13
Consumer Staples | 7.6040| 0.9| 9/2
Information Technology | 7.5653| 0.7| 8/6
Communication Services | 4.2693| 0.5| 6/1
Real Estate | 1.4996| 0.3| 17/5
Health Care | -1.2814| -1.5| 1/5
Consumer Discretionary | -1.7224| -0.2| 7/7
Utilities | -4.8180| -0.5| 4/11
Industrials | -10.8513| -0.4| 15/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
First Quantum Minerals | 8.2940| 9.0| -6.2| -13.5
Suncor Energy | 8.2660| 1.9| 10.3| 50.8
Agnico Eagle Mines | 7.5690| 4.0| -10.7| -7.2
WSP Global | -2.4420| -1.8| -16.8| -10.5
Canadian National | -2.7140| -0.4| -46.2| 3.5
Thomson Reuters | -5.0400| -3.2| 107.3| -7.3

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks finished lower as data showing a solid US labor market bolstered speculation that Federal Reserve policy could remain aggressively tight even with the threat of a recession.
At a time when good news is considered bad news when it comes to policy conjectures, the S&P 500 wiped out a rally as the figures highlighted an unexpected rebound in US job openings, which may keep the pressure on the Fed.

It was the 26th time in 2022 that the equity gauge erased a gain or loss of at least 1% in one session — the most for any year since the financial crisis.
“Hopes for a Fed dovish pivot are misplaced if today’s job openings are any guide,” said Ronald Temple, head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management. “Despite other signs of economic deceleration, the job openings data taken together with nonfarm payroll growth indicate the Fed is far from the point where it can declare victory over inflation and lift its foot off the economic brake.”
Friday’s jobs report is currently forecast to show US employers added about 196,000 workers to payrolls in October.
Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to edge up to 3.6%, and for average hourly earnings to post another solid advance.
After the closing bell, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. topped earnings estimates, but gave a downbeat forecast for the current period.

Airbnb Inc. slumped as demand weakened for pricey pandemic-era bookings.
Electronic Arts Inc., the video game publisher behind franchises such as Madden NFL, cut its forecast for net bookings, citing the strength of the US dollar.
Big tech weighed on equities Tuesday, with Apple Inc. down almost 2% and Amazon.com Inc. hitting its lowest since 2020.
Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. jumped.

After notching its best month in 46 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near a resistance level that saw the index halt a few rally attempts in the past few months.
Two-year US yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, rose.
Also weighing on market sentiment was a separate report showing US manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the fourth time in five months, while an index of prices paid fell to a more than two-year low. The figures added to evidence of recession concerns as central banks step up the fight to get inflation under control.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., a lot of what will take place in markets over the next few weeks will hinge upon Powell’s signals on Wednesday as well as the subsequent Fedspeak.

Tom Porcelli at RBC Capital Markets says that if the Fed’s boss really wants to transition to shallower hikes, he should maintain some element of hawkishness as there’s a “decent risk of creating confusion.”
“As we have not yet reached the peak for Fed rate hikes, it’s highly unlikely that we’ve already seen the bottom of this bear market, especially given the history of Fed rate hikes peaking before the market troughs,” noted Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

She anticipates the market floor for this cycle will most likely be reached in the first or second quarters of 2023.
For now, Shah sees both market and inflation volatility persisting alongside further Fed rate hikes in the last few months of 2002 and into early next year.
Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments says she believes the Fed may pause its rate hikes soon even amid strong inflation.

Financial conditions have tightened substantially, and recession should be considered a base case, she added.
“Let me be clear — a Fed pause is not the same as a pivot,” Goodwin added. “Certainly, deteriorating economic and credit conditions could cause the Fed to pivot modestly at some point, but a full pivot into accommodative territory is highly unlikely in the next year.”

Earlier in the day, speculation that China is preparing to gradually exit the stringent Covid Zero stance helped boost equities.
A gauge of the nation’s stocks listed in Hong Kong surged almost 7% intraday.
Shares pared gains after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said he’s “not aware” of a committee on ending the policy.

Key events this week:
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment, Wednesday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $0.9878
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.1483
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 148.19 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $20,445.94
* Ether rose 0.7% to $1,576.28

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.05%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.13%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.47%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $88.27 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,651.30 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Elaine Chen, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

The great enemy of the truth is very often not he lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.  – John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com