Month: October 2022

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

Just back today from an investment conference in New York – lots of worthwhile insights presented by many illustrious money managers and financial sorts, including Ben Bernanke, former US treasury Secretary, who was lauded for his work with the Nobel Prize in economics earlier in the week.  Larry summers was also a presenter.  Lots if information to organize and sort through this weekend…

On Oct. 14, 1964, civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. was named winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.  Go to article »
October 14, 1968: Apollo program: The first live television broadcast by American astronauts form a manned, orbiting American spacecraft is carried out by the Apollo 7 crew.

The European capital of cool that keeps getting cooler.  Affordable rent. Great nightlife. Gorgeous streets. Tourists from around the globe are flocking to this city in droves

Fancy watches are about to get cheaper.

Superhighway of ancient human and animal footprints in England provides an ‘amazing snapshot of the past’:  Thousands of years ago, a swath of land along what is now the western coast of England served as a superhighway for humans and animals alike. Today, the ebb and flow of each passing tide reveals more of the ancient footprints that these long-gone travelers stamped into the once mud-caked route.  Reminders of their travels can be seen along a nearly 2-mile-long (3 kilometers) stretch of coastline near Formby, England. The footprint beds show how, as glaciers melted and sea levels rose after the last ice age ended around 11,700 years ago, humans and animals were forced inland, thus forming a hub of human and animal activity seen in the commingled footprints.  Full Story: Live Science (10/14)

Anglo-Saxon hall where kings and warriors dined discovered in England:  Archaeologists in the east of England have unearthed the remains of an elaborate hall that Anglo-Saxon monarchs and warriors feasted in roughly 1,400 years ago.   The remains of the royal hall — near the village of Rendlesham in Suffolk, about 70 miles (110 kilometers) northeast of London — are only a few miles north of the famous Anglo-Saxon ship burial at Sutton Hoo and a few miles south of another ship burial near the village of Snape.  Full Story: Live Science (10/14)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The start of the swimming section of the Ironman World Championships
Photograph: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Elephant keeper Kiapi Lakupanai plays with calves at the Reteti elephant sanctuary in the Namunyak wildlife conservancy. The sanctuary has been overwhelmed with orphaned and abandoned calves due to drought
Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

Drummers from Spark! perform as part of Light Night Leeds, the country’s largest annual arts and light festival
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
Market Closes for October 14, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29634.83	-403.89
		-1.34%
S&P 500	3583.07	-86.84
		-2.37%
NASDAQ	10321.39	-327.76
		-3.08%
TSX	18326.35	-287.28
		-1.54%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27090.76	+853.34
		+3.25%
HANG SENG	16587.69	+198.58
		+1.21%
SENSEX	57919.97	+684.64
		+1.20%
FTSE 100*	6858.79	+8.52
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.488		3.422
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.416		3.338
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.0204		3.9435
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.9936		3.9164

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7196	0.7273
US $	1.3896	1.3750
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3507	0.7404
US  $	0.9720	1.0288

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1648.10	1670.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.61	89.11

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1980, the IPO boom of the 1980s got off to a roaring start as Genentech went public at an initial offering price of $35.00. It closed the day’s trading at $71.25, a 103.6% gain, one of the highest first-day returns for a stock in history.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.5% at 18,326.35 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 2.2%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 9.1%.
Today, 201 of 236 shares fell, while 33 rose; all sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 16 times. The next day, it declined 13 times for an average 0.8% and advanced three times for an average 0.3%
* This year, the index fell 14%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index fell 1.4%
* The index declined 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 2.5% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 on a trailing basis and 11.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 23.23% compared with 22.97% in the previous session and the average of 18.37% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -99.0339| -2.8| 1/37
Materials | -89.1791| -4.0| 4/47
Industrials | -43.0257| -1.8| 4/23
Utilities | -14.6557| -1.7| 0/16
Financials | -13.7754| -0.2| 9/20
Communication Services | -11.0427| -1.2| 1/6
Information Technology | -5.3093| -0.6| 3/11
Real Estate | -4.1799| -0.9| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -4.0900| -0.5| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8535| -0.3| 7/6
Health Care | -1.1518| -1.5| 0/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -40.0800| -9.1| 24.1| 13.8
Enbridge | -16.1700| -2.3| 48.8| 1.1
Cenovus Energy | -13.6000| -5.8| -15.1| 48.4
Magna Intl | 1.1290| 0.9| -29.1| -33.7
Intact Financial | 1.6800| 0.7| 5.2| 17.7
TD Bank | 7.4650| 0.7| -7.2| -12.4
US
By Stephen Kirkland and Lu Wang
(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell after a report showed US year-ahead inflation expectations rose for the first time in seven months.
The dollar gained and Treasuries fell.
The S&P 500 closed near lows of the day, falling more than 2%.
The growth-sensitive Nasdaq 100 posted the steepest losses, dropping just over 3% as Treasury yields climbed, with the two-year rate rising back to 4.5%.
Both indexes posted their first weekly declines this month.
Equity markets turned sharply lower after a University of Michigan survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations rose in early October and the long-term outlook also crept up.
The uptick is potentially worrisome for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep views anchored.
It also follows data a day earlier that showed a key measure of consumer prices accelerated in September to a 40-year high.
On Thursday, however, stocks roared back from early losses in one of the biggest reversals on record.
“Yesterday you had this amazing, powerful intraday rally that was completely wrong,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes. “Then you look at the Michigan numbers this morning that’s consistent with what we’re seeing in the economy, and the stock market now is down to reflect that number. That’s correct.”
Corporate America offered some bright spots, with big banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. rising after reporting results, while Morgan Stanley fell as equity trading revenue disappointed.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. shares gained after the health-care giant beat profit forecasts in the third quarter and raised its outlook for the year.
Earnings next week will provide clues on the strength of a swathe of companies, including Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Netflix Inc., Tesla Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc.
In the latest Fed comments, officials suggested they’re ready to hike rates higher than previously planned.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George said the terminal rate may need to be higher to cool prices.
San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly said she’s “very supportive” raising to restrictive levels and to between 4.5% and 5% “is the most likely outcome.”
Forecasts they released last month showed rates reaching 4.4% by year end and 4.6% next year, from a current target range of 3% to 3.25.
Swaps traders have boosted wagers for rate hikes over the past week following strong payrolls and hot inflation readings, with the market leaning toward back-to-back jumbo hikes at the next two meetings and a high above 4.9% next year.
“A lot of investors are looking at inflation to get guidance on what the Fed is going to do, to find the bottom in the market once the Fed pivots,” Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer and president of First American Trust, said in an interview. “But looking at CPI, unemployment, there’s obviously a lot of heat in the economy. Inflation is going to take some time to come down.”
In the UK, bonds and the pound fell to end another tumultuous week.
Gilts slid as Prime Minister Liz Truss confirmed speculation she will U-turn on a planned freeze on corporation tax.
The Bank of England ended its emergency bond purchases on Friday, buying £1.45 billion of long-dated and inflation-linked gilts.
In the wake of that, 30-year yields rose 23 basis points at 4.78%, after swinging from a drop of over 30 basis points earlier.
Elsewhere, oil posted a weekly loss as inflation-fighting measures and muted Chinese demand soured the market’s outlook, blunting some of the sting from OPEC’s upcoming supply curtailments.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.4% as of 4:06 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $0.9729
* The British pound fell 1.2% to $1.1186
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 148.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $19,177.75
* Ether rose 0.4% to $1,298.58
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.35%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 4.34%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.7% to $85.82 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.7% to $1,648.80 an ounce
–With assistance from John Cheng, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao and Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Now, now my good man, this is no time for making enemies.
-Voltaire , on his deathbed in response to a priest asking that he renounce Satan.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Forged Galileo manuscript leads experts to controversial book he secretly wrote The revelation in August that a manuscript attributed to Galileo Galilei was a forgery has led to the discovery of a different book that the celebrated Italian astronomer actually did write, but under a pseudonym, a new investigation finds. Previously unpublished notes by Galileo that were checked in the aftermath of the forgery’s discovery indicate that he was the true author of a treatise titled the “Considerazioni Astronomiche di Alimberto Mauri” — Italian for the “Astronomical Considerations of Alimberto Mauri” — which was published in 1604.

‘I think your dog is broken’: Labrador’s reaction goes viral. This dog hilariously froze when he saw Halloween cat decorations in his front yard. Watch the video here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Deer forage in Dunham Massey as low temperatures bring on an early morning fog
Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

An aerial view of Sigiriya, an ancient rock fortress. The site sits on a massive column of rock approximately 180 metres high, and dates back to the reign of King Kasyapa (477-495 AD), who chose it as his new capital. He decorated the walls with frescoes and built an impressive palace right on top of the rock column, accessible only through the mouth of an enormous carved lion
Photograph: Thilina Kaluthotage/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock
Just your everyday fox on a hedge with a hotdog. I’ve seen foxes cache their food in some innovative places, but this was a first. Taken in my local cemetery in east London.’
Photograph: Callum Church
Market Closes for October 13, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30038.72	+827.87
		+2.83%
S&P 500	3669.91	+92.88
		+2.60%
NASDAQ	10649.15	+232.05
		+2.23%
TSX	18613.63	+407.35
		+2.24%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26237.42	-159.41
		-0.60%
HANG SENG	16389.11	-311.92
		-1.87%
SENSEX	57235.33	-390.58
		-0.68%
FTSE 100*	6850.27	+24.12
		+0.35%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.422		3.423
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.338		3.327
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.9435		3.8962
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.9164		3.8744

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7273	0.7235
US $	1.3750	1.3822
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3443	0.7439
US  $	0.9775	1.0230

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1670.65	1664.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	89.11	87.27

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1691, Sir Stephen Evance incorporated the Company for Making Hollow Sword Blades in the North of England, one of the earliest companies to issue stock—and the predecessor of the South Sea Co., whose own stock caused a speculative fever that overheated and nearly destroyed the British financial system in 1720.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 2.2% at 18,613.63 in Toronto. The move was the biggest since rising 2.6% on Oct. 4 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 193 of 236 shares rose, while 42 fell.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.1%. Converge Technology Solutions Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.9%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain two times. The next day, it declined 0.7% once and advanced 2.6% once
* This year, the index fell 12%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index declined 9.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week low and 16.2% below its high on April 5, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.2% in the past 5 days and fell 5.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 11.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.91t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 22.97% compared with 21.90% in the previous session and the average of 17.98% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 152.5014| 2.7| 29/0
Energy | 114.8877| 3.4| 37/1
Industrials | 43.4619| 1.8| 24/3
Communication Services | 28.1084| 3.2| 7/0
Utilities | 22.0245| 2.6| 16/0
Consumer Discretionary | 11.6793| 1.8| 11/3
Materials | 10.1110| 0.5| 22/29
Consumer Staples | 9.8382| 1.3| 10/1
Real Estate | 7.1756| 1.6| 22/0
Information Technology | 6.9676| 0.7| 11/2
Health Care | 0.6042| 0.8| 4/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 41.4300| 4.1| 17.7| -13.1
RBC | 32.1700| 2.8| 109.1| -9.1
Enbridge | 25.6600| 3.7| 106.0| 3.4
Kinross Gold | -1.3430| -3.0| 5.3| -33.4
Agnico Eagle Mines | -1.5080| -0.8| -35.0| -14.4
Barrick Gold | -7.9250| -3.1| -6.8| -16.0
US
By Stephen Kirkland and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — US stocks roared back from losses sparked by a hot inflation reading on speculation the yearlong selloff had potentially reached a bottom.
The S&P 500 closed up 2.6% after swinging more than 5% during a wild trading day. The benchmark clawed back more than 40% of the losses over a six-day selloff that took it to a two- year low.
Technical levels factored into the bounce. At one point, the benchmark S&P 500 had given back 50% of its post-pandemic rally, triggering programmed buying. A wave of put options bought to protect against such a rout moved into the money, and as profits were booked, that prompted dealers to buy stocks to remain market neutral.
A gauge of consumer price growth rose to a 40-year high last month, sealing the case for the Fed to deliver a large rate hike in November. Stocks plunged 25% this year before Thursday’s rebound, as the central bank tightened policy to curb inflation, leaving investors to weigh how much damage is left for share prices.
“There may be some short covering going on, but also, a lot was priced in,” said Michael Contopoulos, director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “There has likely been a fair amount of defensive positioning lately in equities and on the rates side, higher policy rates means higher probability of a hard landing.”
Risk assets have been under pressure all year as central banks around the world attempt to tame runaway inflation. The latest data added to evidence the harsh monetary medicine has yet to take hold and comes on the heels of last week’s payrolls figures that showed unemployment rate at a five-decade low in September.
The Treasury curve flattened, with the yield on policy- sensitive two-year notes up 18 basis points at 4.47%. Market bets on rates now lean toward back-to-back 75 basis-point hikes at the next two Fed meetings and expect the central bank to push rates past 4.85% before the tightening cycle ends. The current rate is 3.25%.
On the earnings front, Delta Air Lines Inc., Domino’s Pizza Inc. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. gained on better-than- expected results. Big banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are due to report on Friday.
More market commentary
* “If you had some levered CTA who had a big buy program set to start around 3,505 and then another levered short who doubled down on the CPI print that could have created this snowball where market just ripped as other levered technical systematic traders piled in,” Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI, said. “Or someone just got a fat margin call. We may find out after the dust settles.”
* “There’s so much uncertainty in the market and so many data points are conflicting that the market responds to whatever is the most recent data point,” said Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at F.L.Putnam Investment Management. “So this morning with the reversal in the UK the market was up pre-open, then we got CPI and then it was down.
And then we look at the fact that we bounced off of this support level and that becomes self-fulfilling.”
* “This isn’t the CPI report markets or the Fed were hoping for,” said James Athey, investment director at abrdn. “Inflation pressures remain stubbornly high. The reality is that for the foreseeable future the Fed is locked into a stance of unequivocal hawkishness. This will support bond yields and the US dollar but its yet more bad news for equities.”
* “After today’s inflation report, there can’t be anyone left in the market who believes the Fed can raise rates by anything less than 75bps at the November meeting,” Seema Shah, strategist at Principal Global Investors wrote. “In fact, if this kind of upside surprise is repeated next month, we could be facing a fifth consecutive 0.75% hike in December with policy rates blowing through the Fed’s peak rate forecast before this year is over.”
* Given the latest CPI report, “any continued pick-up in energy prices can get us to a new high” in headline inflation, said Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. That “could very well spook markets as it pushes back any expectation of peak inflation, peak Fed hawkishness and could force the market to contemplate a terminal fed funds rate above 5%. All that would raise the risks of more bond pain, more equity pain, and a greater risk of financial accident.”

Meanwhile, UK markets remained in turmoil almost two weeks after the government unveiled a plan to drastically cut taxes.
The pound surged back above $1.13, buoyed by reports that government officials are working on a U-turn of tax cuts. Gilts also rallied, with the yield on 30-year debt dropping as much as 46 basis points.
The yen sank to its lowest level in more than 30 years after the US inflation report, before reversing the move in a whiplash trade that raised market chatter of potential intervention
Elsewhere, oil gained for the first time this week, with crude in New York rising back above $89 a barrel after a US crude report flagged potential bullish drivers, shrugging off inflation data. The International Energy Agency earlier warned production cuts agreed by OPEC+ risked causing oil prices to spike and tipping the global economy into recession.

Key events this week:
* Earnings on Friday: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth Group Inc., U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo & Co.
* G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet, Thursday
* China CPI, PPI, trade, Friday
* US retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* BOE emergency bond buying is set to end, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $0.9776
* The British pound rose 2% to $1.1317
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 147.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1% to $19,369.94
* Ether fell 0.9% to $1,287.49
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.96%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 24 basis points to 4.20%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to $89.15 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,671 an ounce

–With assistance from Tassia Sipahutar, Richard Henderson, Farah Elbahrawy, Denitsa Tsekova, Sujata Rao, Vildana Hajric and Peyton Forte.
Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent.
As ever,

Isabel

Mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself, but talent instantly recognizes genius.

– Sir Arthur Conan Dolye,1859 – 1930

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 12, 2000, the Navy destroyer Cole was attacked in an al-Qaeda suicide bombing while in port in Aden, Yemen, killing 17 sailors and injuring dozens more. Go to article »

Actor William Shatner shares what it’s like traveling to space. “Everything I had expected to see was wrong,” Shatner wrote in a new biography. Learn about the actor’s life-changing experience aboard a suborbital space tourism flight.

Video shows volcano eruption in Italy. Watch the moment a volcano erupted on the Italian island of Stromboli. Thankfully, no injuries were reported.

In ‘bizarre behavior,’ New Zealand penguins lay one egg, reject it, and then lay another. Now, scientists know why. Researchers have cracked the case of why erect-crested penguins in New Zealand reject their first-laid eggs. These penguins, which mate in monogamous pairs, lay an egg only to abandon it in favor of a second egg, which they then incubate until it hatches. Laying eggs is energy intensive, and so this behavior is highly unusual in birds, but a study published Oct. 12 in the journal PLOS One offers new insight into the odd practice.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Liceu Grand theatre filled with balloons as part of an art installation by the Brazilian artist Flavia Junqueira
Photograph: Josep Lago/AFP/Getty Images

Members of the Zebras programme, an initiative of volunteers who help educate drivers and pedestrians on road safety, head off to work
Photograph: Luis Gandarillas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Ekaterina watches as two Alpine ibex spar for supremacy. It was near the end of a spring day trip with her family that she spotted the fight. The two ibex clashed horns and continued to trade blows while standing on their hind legs like boxers in a ring. In the early 1800s, after centuries of hunting, fewer than 100 Alpine ibex survived in the mountains on the Italy–France border. Successful conservation measures mean that, today, there are more than 50,000. Pian della Mussa, Piedmont, Italy
Photograph: Ekaterina Bee/Wildlife Photographer of the Year
Market Closes for October 12, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29210.85	-28.34
		-0.10%
S&P 500	3577.03	-11.81
		-0.33%
NASDAQ	10417.10	-9.09
		-0.09%
TSX	18206.28	-10.40
		-0.06%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26396.83	-4.42
		-0.02%
HANG SENG	16701.03	-131.33
		-0.78%
SENSEX	57625.91	+478.59
		+0.84%
FTSE 100*	6826.15	-59.08
		-0.86%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.423		3.475
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.327		3.343
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.8962		3.9470
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.8744		3.9223

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7235	0.7250
US $	1.3822	1.3793
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3413	0.7455
US  $	0.9705	1.0304

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.70	1676.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	87.27	89.35

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1990, the great bull market of the 1990s began, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 9.90 points to close at 2407.92. Stocks would more than quadruple over the next ten years.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 18,206.28 in Toronto.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 4 of 11 sectors lost; 82 of 236 shares fell, while 150 rose.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 13.5%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 14%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* The index declined 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week low and 18% below its high on April 5, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 6% in the past 5 days and fell 8.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 on a trailing basis and 11.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.91t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 21.90% compared with 22.29% in the previous session and the average of 17.57% over the past mont
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -28.2078| -0.8| 13/24
Utilities | -21.7843| -2.5| 0/16
Industrials | -14.0977| -0.6| 15/12
Communication Services | -10.4373| -1.2| 1/6
Health Care | 2.2467| 3.0| 7/0
Consumer Discretionary | 4.5107| 0.7| 10/4
Information Technology | 4.8526| 0.5| 9/5
Real Estate | 6.0054| 1.3| 22/0
Consumer Staples | 11.0798| 1.5| 11/0
Financials | 11.9064| 0.2| 20/9
Materials | 23.5312| 1.1| 42/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Cameco | -13.1700| -13.5| 246.3| 11.7
Enbridge | -6.2750| -0.9| 41.0| -0.3
Canadian Pacific | -5.9550| -1.0| -20.1| 1.9
Shopify | 4.5750| 1.6| -35.1| -79.4
RBC | 5.6660| 0.5| -12.5| -11.6
Bank of Montreal | 6.2710| 1.2| -12.4| -14.7
US
By Stephen Kirkland and Peyton Forte
(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell with investors bracing for Thursday’s reading on consumer prices. Treasuries gained, while UK markets were roiled once again by confusion over the country’s policies.
The S&P 500 slipped into the red in the final minutes of trading, capping six days of losses to close at the lowest level since November 2020 and surpassing the previous low on Sept. 30.
Equities faded a brief rally after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting suggested some officials may consider calibrating the pace of rate increases. The consumer price reading will be the last major data point before the central bankers meet next month.
“The market is waiting for the CPI print tomorrow more than it was waiting for minutes,” according to Sarah Hunt of Alpine Woods Capital Investors. “There may be a little hint of relief on the ‘calibrate’ statement, but I think that with the speed of hikes so far it would be irresponsible not to have some sort of possible slowdown coming in hikes, even if it isn’t a cessation in hikes.”
Data Wednesday showed prices paid to US producers rose in September by more than expected ahead of a key measure of consumer inflation due Thursday that’s set to return to a four-decade high.
Comments by Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari earlier Wednesday reaffirmed policy makers’ commitment to the current rate-hike path, saying the bar for a pivot away from monetary policy tightening is “very high.”

More market comments
* “Should tomorrow’s CPI print come in above what the market is expecting, today’s somewhat blasé reaction to the minutes, and the PPI report, could be tested, particularly by bond yields,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “If rates on the 10-year Treasury inches closer to 4%, and the 2-Year Treasury follows suit, the market could have a rough day before the market turns its focus towards a broad reading of bank earnings and guidance.”
* “There was a lot of negativity and worry out there. I think the minutes allow investors to walk back their fears a bit,” said Mike Zigmont, head of trading and research at Harvest Volatility Management.
* “The silver lining was that some Fed participants did acknowledge that further tightening would have to be monitored in the context of the uncertain global environment, which is a nod to the bulls,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management.
* “Prices remain elevated so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see producer goods and services rise,” Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office, wrote. “No doubt the Fed still has its work cut out for them, and if tomorrow’s CPI read is hot, don’t be surprised to see some investors come to grips with how long the road to tamer inflation may be.”
On the corporate front, PepsiCo Inc. jumped the most in more than two years after lifting its forecast for the year on the back of better-than-estimated third-quarter profit as drink and snack sales buck inflation. Moderna Inc. surged after Merck & Co. said it would exercise an option to work in partnership with the biotech on a messenger RNA cancer vaccine. The reporting season will kick off in earnest Friday with results from banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc.
A selloff in long-maturity UK debt gathered pace after the Bank of England damped hopes it would extend its bond-buying support into next week. The yield on 30-year gilts surged above 5%, nearing levels that just last month drew the central bank’s intervention, before easing again after the BOE snapped up billions in its daily operations.
Elsewhere,  oil in New York dropped below $88 a barrel on slowdown fears. OPEC trimmed projections for the amount of crude it will need to pump this quarter, while Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said any energy infrastructure in the world is at risk after the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged alliance members to step up supplies of air defense systems to Ukraine, condemning Russian strikes. In China, Shanghai is quietly shutting down schools and a raft of other venues as officials try to rein in a flareup that’s hit the financial hub.
Key events this week:
* Earnings this week include: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, BlackRock Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., UnitedHealth Group Inc., U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo & Co.
* FOMC minutes for September meeting, Wednesday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari speak
* ECB’s Christine Lagarde speaks
* US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet, Thursday
* China CPI, PPI, trade, Friday
* US retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* BOE emergency bond buying is set to end, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $0.9702
* The British pound rose 1.1% to $1.1093
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 146.84 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $19,145.69
* Ether rose 1.2% to $1,297.45
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.89%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.31%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.44%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.5% to $87.11 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,681.30 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang, Richard Henderson, Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, Michael Msika, Abigail Moses, Vildana Hajric and Emily Graffeo.
Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent.
As ever,

Isabel

Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise; seek what they sought. -Matsuo Chuemon Munefusa, 1644 –1694

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A plaster cast of a battle scene from the temple at Karnak is displayed during the Hieroglyphs: unlocking ancient Egypt exhibition at the British Museum. The exhibition, which marks 200 years since the decipherment of ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs, explores the inscriptions and objects that helped academics unlock an ancient civilisation.
Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

The Royal Liver Building is illuminated in yellow for World Mental Health Day.
Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA

Bluewater, golden sand, white foam mixed with bright sunlight paints gorgeous design under the Sea Cliff bridge in New South Wales.
Photograph: Dasun Nirmala Malaarachchi/Courtesy TNC Photo Contest 2022
Market Closes for October 11, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29239.19	+36.31
		+0.12%
S&P 500	3588.84	-23.55
		-0.65%
NASDAQ	10426.19	-115.91
		-1.10%
TSX	18216.68	-366.45
		-1.97%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26401.25	-714.86
		-2.64%
HANG SENG	16832.36	-384.30
		-2.23%
SENSEX	57147.32	-843.79
		-1.46%
FTSE 100*	6885.23	-74.08
		-1.06%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.475		3.386
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.343		3.247
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.9470		3.8814
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.9223		3.8417

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7250	0.7280
US $	1.3793	1.3736
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3399	0.7463
US  $	0.9715	1.0293

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1676.55	1714.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	89.35	92.64

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1817, the New York Stock Exchange formally banned negotiated fees, compelling all its members to charge fixed commission rates to the investing public—including members of the brokers’ own families. Commissions would remain non-negotiable for the next 158 years.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth day, dropping 2%, or 366.45 to 18,216.68 in Toronto. The index dropped to the lowest closing level in at least a year.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%. Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 14.4%.
Today, 202 of 236 shares fell, while 32 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 10 times. The next day, it declined nine times for an average 0.8% and advanced 0.1% once
* This year, the index fell 14%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* The index declined 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 18% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 0.3% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.5% in the past 5 days and fell 7.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 on a trailing basis and 11.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 22.29% compared with 21.66% in the previous session and the average of 17.36% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -131.0826| -2.3| 2/27
Energy | -117.9369| -3.3| 3/35
Materials | -30.9601| -1.4| 10/40
Information Technology| -30.7596| -3.2| 1/13
Industrials | -18.8262| -0.8| 5/22
Utilities | -15.9930| -1.8| 0/16
Communication Services| -10.6405| -1.2| 0/7
Real Estate | -5.6943| -1.2| 1/21
Consumer Discretionary| -5.6807| -0.9| 3/11
Health Care | -4.1068| -5.2| 0/6
Consumer Staples | 5.2040| 0.7| 7/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -28.1400| -2.4| 70.5| -12.0
Brookfield Asset Management | -19.4700| -3.6| -1.1| -29.9
Canadian Natural Resources | -19.3400| -3.3| 112.0| 39.2
West Fraser Timber | 1.7540| 4.2| -23.4| -14.7
Intact Financial | 2.2720| 1.0| -11.1| 17.3
Couche-Tard | 2.6570| 0.9| -15.2| 6.2
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — US stocks turned sharply lower in late trading after comments by the Bank of England chief on removing market support rattled investor sentiment. Benchmark Treasury yields rose and the dollar gained.
The S&P 500 slid amid renewed selling in tech shares that sent the Nasdaq 100 down more than 1%. Long-end Treasuries bore the brunt of losses and the pound tumbled after BOE Governor Andrew Bailey urged investors to finish winding up positions that they can’t maintain, saying the central bank will halt intervention in the market as planned at the end of this week.
“When Andrew Bailey makes a comment that he will stop QE on Friday, this is going to be an interesting test,” Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office, said on Bloomberg TV. “It’s a very interesting line in the sand. Will the market push back? How much higher will the yields run? We’ll see.”
Risk sentiment remained fragile after a four-day losing streak wiped $1.6 trillion off the value of the S&P 500 Index ahead of US inflation readings. Data Thursday may seal the case for another 75-basis-point interest-rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting in the absence of a major shortfall.
Nor have officials given any inclination to pause their rate-hiking cycle in the near future, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying Tuesday officials need to keep raising interest rates and cannot get complacent.
More market comments:
* “The gilt market is one of the more fragile elements of global finance right now,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “The BOE rescued global markets in the last week of September when they stabilized gilts, so it’s a big risk if they’re going to let them potentially drift lower.”
* “Tuesday’s price action was heavily reliant on the influence of the gilt market; selling off in sympathy with British yields overnight and stabilizing once London left for the day until governor Bailey’s hawkish remarks drove a partial reversal,” Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery at BMO Capital Markets wrote in a note.

In addition to inflation data, big US banks kick off the third-quarter earnings season in earnest later this week, with strategists braced for weak profits against a drumbeat of warnings over the rising risk of a global recession. The International Monetary Fund joined the refrain, warning of a worsening outlook as efforts to curb inflation may add to damage from the war in Ukraine and China’s slowdown.
“We have not seen the impact of tightening,” Michael Kelly, head of the multi-asset team at PineBridge Investments told Bloomberg TV. “That lies ahead and when we see that, it’s another leg down for risk assets.”
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened further missile attacks on Ukraine after hitting Kyiv and other cities in the most intense barrage of strikes since the first days of its invasion.
“It’s little wonder investors enter the week in a dreary mood, especially with headlines from Ukraine signaling a further escalation in geopolitical tensions,” Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings, said in a note.
With world growth under pressure, US oil futures tumbled more than 2%, giving up more of last week’s 17% rally.

Key events this week:
* Earnings this week include: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, BlackRock Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., UnitedHealth Group Inc., U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo & Co.
* FOMC minutes for September meeting, Wednesday
* US PPI, mortgage applications, Wednesday
* OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Wednesday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari speak
* ECB’s Christine Lagarde speaks
* US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet, Thursday
* China CPI, PPI, trade, Friday
* US retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* BOE emergency bond buying is set to end, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $0.9711
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.0986
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 145.82 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $18,996.28
* Ether fell 1.9% to $1,282.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.94%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.44%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.9% to $88.52 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,673.40 an ounce

–With assistance from Naoto Hosoda, Abhishek Vishnoi, Sujata Rao, Peyton Forte, Vildana Hajric, Emily Graffeo and Elaine Chen.

Have a great evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel 

If a little dreaming is dangerous, the cure for it is not to dream less, but to dream more, to dream all the time.

– Marcel Proust, 1871-1922

Isabel Luo
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Don’t forget to look  for  the full moon on Sunday night.

On Oct. 7, 1985 Palestinian gunmen hijacked the Italian cruise ship Achille Lauro in the Mediterranean with more than 400 people aboard.  Go to article »

October 7, 1949: A constitution went into effect in the Soviet occupation zone of Germany that formed the country of /east Germany, which existed alongside West Germany until 1990, when the two Germanys reunited.

Pet sitter is no match for rambunctious puppies.  Watch this dog sitter faceplant while trying to wrangle some adorable puppies. Clearly, he was having a ruff day.

Yayoi Kusama’s yellow pumpkin sculpture is back on Naoshima Island.  Japan’s famous yellow pumpkin has been reinstalled after it was swept into the sea during a typhoon last summer. And the timing couldn’t be better.

Michelin gives — and takes — stars 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Waves break on a misty morning in Scarborough, UK
Photograph: Michael Spencer/Ocean Photographer of the Year 2022

A school of weedy seadragons – an extremely rare sight for these typically solitary animals, Australia
Photograph: Steve Walsh/Ocean Photographer of the Year 2022

Anemone fish in their colourful home
Photograph: Matty Smith/Ocean Photographer of the Year 2022
Market Closes for October 7, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29296.79	-630.15
		-2.11%
S&P 500	3639.84	-104.68
		-2.80%
NASDAQ	10652.41	-420.90
		-3.80%
TSX	18573.08	-405.93
		-2.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27116.11	-195.19
		-0.71%
HANG SENG	17740.05	-272.10
		-1.51%
SENSEX	58191.29	-30.81
		-0.05%
FTSE 100*	6991.09	-6.18
		-0.09%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.386		3.303
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.247		3.196
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.8814		3.8236
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.8417		3.7838

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7280	0.7275
US $	1.3736	1.3746
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3376	0.7476
US  $	0.9738	1.0269

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1714.20	1700.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	92.64	88.45

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average began continuous daily publication. Its 12 members were the great industrial giants of the time: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, American Spirits Manufacturing, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, U.S. Cordage, Tennessee Coal & Iron, U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 2.1%, or 395.88 to 18,583.13 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.7% on Sept. 23.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 209 of 236 shares fell, while 25 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.9%.
Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 25.8%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss eight times. The next day, it declined seven times for an average 0.7% and advanced 0.1% once * This year, the index fell 12%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index declined 9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 16.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 2.3% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 11.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 21.66% compared with 21.24% in the previous session and the average of 16.68% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -137.7037| -2.4| 0/29
Materials | -87.6220| -3.8| 3/48
Industrials | -59.4156| -2.4| 1/26
Information Technology| -49.8923| -4.9| 0/14
Consumer Discretionary| -17.4565| -2.6| 0/14
Utilities | -13.3387| -1.5| 2/14
Real Estate | -11.0865| -2.4| 2/20
Health Care | -10.4344| -11.6| 0/7
Consumer Staples | -7.3111| -1.0| 3/8
Communication Services| -6.0356| -0.7| 1/6
Energy | 4.4162| 0.1| 13/23
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -34.0900| -2.9| 51.7| -9.9
Shopify | -32.4400| -9.6| 6.1| -78.6
Brookfield Asset Management | -22.7200| -4.0| -13.7| -27.3
Tourmaline Oil | 1.1960| 0.7| -2.7| 105.9
TC Energy | 4.3900| 1.1| -48.0| -3.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 8.6660| 1.5| -27.2| 44.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street got a reality check, with data showing a hot labor market that will likely keep the Federal Reserve on its aggressive hiking trail.
Those bets sent stocks tumbling, driving benchmark Treasury yields to their longest weekly up streak since 1984.
To David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US, the report puts an “an exclamation point” on the idea that the market-bottoming process is going to be “a long one”.
In this “bizarro world” of big hikes, traders may see the solid data as a reason to brace for turmoil, says Callie Cox of eToro.
The conclusion for Brown Brothers Harriman’s Win Thin is that a 75-basis-point Fed boost in November is a “done deal,” with another increase of that size in December becoming a “real possibility.”
Almost 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 fell.
The slide came just a few days after the gauge notched its biggest back-to-back rally since the onset of the pandemic amid a debate on whether the Fed would be closer to “peak hawkishness.”
Those gains gave the measure its best week in a month – despite Friday’s plunge.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sank nearly 4% Friday.
Ten-year yields approached 3.9% amid their 10th consecutive weekly rise.
The dollar advanced.
The swap contract for the November Fed meeting priced in nearly 75 basis points of tightening.
Market-implied expectations for where the rate will peak also increased, with the derivative contract for the March gathering trading around 4.66%.
The current range for the benchmark rate stands between 3% and 3.25%.
Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said rates need to rise to around 4.5% over time, but the pace and ultimate peak of the tightening campaign will hinge on how the economy performs.
Several officials, in separate remarks this week, delivered a resolutely hawkish message that price pressures remain elevated and they won’t be deterred from raising rates by volatility in financial markets.
All eyes will now be on next week’s US inflation data after a hotter-than-expected reading in August tempered hopes of a nascent slowdown.
Separately, minutes from the Fed’s September meeting will give clues into the central bank’s tolerance for economic pain.
Amid fears of a looming recession, investors poured the most money into cash since April 2020, but stocks could see further declines as they don’t fully reflect that risk, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
Their report cited EPFR Global data showing cash funds received nearly $89 billion in the week through Oct. 5 — while investors withdrew $3.3 billion from global stock funds.
Wall Street is “rebelling against” policy tightening, the strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote before the labor-market report.
“The data being reported alongside our proprietary cycle work to date gives us confidence that we are on the right track in anticipating more of a ‘U’-shaped market bottom and recovery in the months ahead (into 2023),” he added. “We believe the floor will be established at some point in the weeks/months ahead — but for now, investors should continue to expect a very choppy glide path due to significant macro overhang.”

More comments on jobs:

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial: “In a word: ‘frustrating.’ As long as job gains are strong, the markets should expect aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.”
Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management: “This report should keep expectations of any ‘dovish pivot’ at bay, and underlines our concerns that any shift in policy is much more likely to be provoked by much worse financial market conditions than a soft landing in the underlying US economy.”
Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade:  “The market has been in a ‘bad-news-is-good-news’ mentality and there’s really no bad news in this report. It’s a solid jobs report, but it’s not what the market wants to see because it doesn’t give the Fed a reason to pause or shift away from its hawkish intentions.”
Ronald Temple, managing director at Lazard Asset Management:  “While job growth is slowing, the US economy remains far too hot for the Fed to achieve its inflation target. The path to a soft landing keeps getting more challenging. If there are any doves left on the FOMC, today’s report might have further thinned their ranks.”
Seema Shah, strategist at Principal Global Investors:  “Today’s job number is a hawkish reading. With the Fed’s dot plot pointing to policy rates closer to 5% than 4% next year, we have a market that is wishing for the economy to slow quickly. That’s when you know there is only one path ahead: risk assets have further to fall.”
Ian Lyngen, head of US rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets:  “On net, it was a strong enough read to keep a 75 bp Nov hike as the path of least resistance, but the deceleration in wage growth YoY adds to the case for a slowed hiking pace to 50 bp in December, and we still expect the final 25 bp hike in February to reach terminal.”

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 2.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $0.9739
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.1080
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 145.36 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.9% to $19,461.43
* Ether fell 2.7% to $1,327.55
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.89%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 2.19%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.6% to $92.48 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1% to $1,703 an ounce
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Cecile Gutscher and Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent.
As ever,

Carolann

Ill habits gather by unseen degrees – as brooks make rivers, rivers run to seas. –John Dryden, 1631-1700.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

1951 Joseph Stalin proclaims the Soviet Union has the atomic bomb.  Go to article »

Vladimir Putin, b. 1952.
Yo-Yo Ma, b. 1955.

A universal cancer treatment may be within reach.

Scientists are figuring out why we hallucinate.

Classical statue of Hercules nearly 2,000 years old found in Greece.  Archaeologists unearthed a stunning artifact after digging on a main street in Greece. Take a look at the classical statue here.

The rise of sleep tourism.  Soundproof walls. Pillow menus. Bedtime teas. A growing number of sleep-focused rooms are popping up in hotels and resorts across the world.

How did the moon form? A supercomputer may have just found the answer:  The moon could have formed immediately after a cataclysmic impact that tore off a chunk of Earth and hurled it into space, a new study has suggested.  Since the mid-1970s, astronomers have thought that the moon could have been made by a collision between Earth and an ancient Mars-size protoplanet called Theia; the colossal impact would have created an enormous debris field from which our lunar companion slowly formed over thousands of years.  Full Story: Live Science (10/5)

How old is ancient Egypt?  To many, Egypt’s history seems to stretch back into time immemorial. But how old exactly is ancient Egypt?  It depends how you define ancient Egypt, said Aidan Dodson, an Egyptology professor at the University of Bristol in the U.K.

WWI German U-boat discovered off US coast 100 years after it sank: A team of shipwreck hunters has discovered an extraordinary sunken vessel off the East Coast of the United States: the wreck of a World War I German U-boat sunk by U.S. warplanes a century ago for target practice.   According to an exclusive report by National Geographic, the team confirmed the identity of the wreck in early September as that of SM U-111, a submarine that served in the Imperial German Navy. After Germany agreed to an armistice in 1918, the U-boat surrendered to the British, who saved a handful of the early submarines to the U.S. to study and reverse engineer. In 1922, the U.S. Navy deliberately sank the vessel, but its exact location was not disclosed. Full Story: Live Science (10/6)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Gwendolyn Boevé-Jones, the founder and director of the art conservation and restoration specialist Studio Redivivus, speaks next to Fernand Léger’s painting Smoke Over the Rooftops. Art experts said they had discovered a masterpiece by the French cubist painter that was hidden on the back of another canvas for more than a century. Smoke Over the Rooftops, dating from 1911 to 1912, was on the flip side of Bastille Day, painted a year later
Photograph: François Walschaerts/AFP/Getty Images
A southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) is photographed near Puerto Madryn in Chubut province, Argentina. Despite the recent deaths of at least 13 southern right whales, authorities have recorded more than 1,400 whales in the Nuevo and San José gulfs, the largest number in more than 50 years
Photograph: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

A jute worker carries a 50kg load. Bangladesh is the world’s second largest producer of jute
Photograph: Syed Mahabubul Kader/Zuma Press Wire/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 6, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29926.94	-346.93
		-1.15%
S&P 500	3744.52	-38.76
		-1.02%
NASDAQ	11073.31	-75.33
		-0.68%
TSX	18979.01	-256.08
		-1.33%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27311.30	+190.77
		+0.70%
HANG SENG	18012.15	-75.82
		-0.42%
SENSEX	58222.10	+156.63
		+0.27%
FTSE 100*	6997.27	-55.35
		-0.78%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.303		3.279
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.196		3.220
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.8236		3.7488
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.7838		3.7509

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7275	0.7345
US $	1.3746	1.3615
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3461	0.7429
US  $	0.9793	1.0211

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1700.50	1714.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	88.45	87.76

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1979, Paul Volcker, who became chairman of the Federal Reserve only two months earlier, said the Fed was raising interest rates a full percentage point, to 12%, and would take tough measures to control the money supply. Mr. Volcker’s announcement, made on a Saturday night, became known as “the Saturday Night Massacre” for its murderous effect on bond prices—but it also broke the back of inflation.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.3%, or 256.08 to 18,979.01 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.7% on Sept. 23.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 147 of 236 shares fell, while 85 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.8%.
Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 19 times. The next day, it declined 13 times for an average 0.9% and advanced six times for an average 0.6%
* This year, the index fell 11%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* So far this week, the index rose 2.9%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended July 29
* The index declined 6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 14.6% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 4.5% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.9% in the past 5 days and fell 0.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 on a trailing basis and 11.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.06t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 21.24% compared with 21.13% in the previous session and the average of 16.34% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -157.2221| -2.6| 2/27
Industrials | -31.3055| -1.2| 7/20
Utilities | -29.9480| -3.2| 0/16
Communication Services| -22.0019| -2.4| 1/5
Consumer Staples | -18.5975| -2.4| 2/9
Information Technology| -13.9734| -1.3| 5/9
Energy | -10.2877| -0.3| 26/12
Real Estate | -6.9050| -1.5| 2/20
Consumer Discretionary| -6.2483| -0.9| 5/8
Health Care | 7.2246| 8.8| 3/4
Materials | 33.1732| 1.5| 32/17
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -34.4800| -2.8| 269.3| -7.2
Enbridge | -26.0700| -3.5| 24.5| 3.5
Bank of Montreal | -16.5400| -2.9| 13.0| -11.0
Suncor Energy | 8.3640| 2.0| 6.7| 42.5
Cenovus Energy | 10.3400| 4.4| -5.6| 65.0
Nutrien | 11.3600| 2.7| -20.2| 23.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market found little encouragement to sustain any rebound attempt on the eve of the all-important US jobs report, with major benchmarks finishing solidly lower on Thursday.
Aside from the anxiety that usually precedes those numbers, traders had to digest remarks from a raft of Federal Reserve speakers who sounded unequivocally committed to crushing inflation with rate hikes.
The hawkish rhetoric helped push the S&P 500 to its second straight day of losses while lifting the dollar and Treasury yields. Oil topped $88 a barrel.
In the run-up to the payrolls data, Wall Street braced for a mixed picture of a labor market that’s showing some signs of moderation while still remaining robust.
With that in mind, several economists believe it may be just too early to think about concepts like “peak hawkishness” or “Fed pivot” as debated earlier in the week.
And officials are making that clear.
The central bank is “quite a ways away” from pausing its tightening campaign, according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
His Chicago counterpart Charles Evans noted the benchmark rate will probably be at 4.5% to 4.75% by next spring — from the current 3% to 3.25% range. Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester said the US is in an unacceptably high inflation environment.
“I don’t think the Fed is going to be ready to pivot so quickly,” said Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at The Colony Group. “We’re going to be in this kind of tug of war between good news, bad news. There’s going to still be a lot of volatility to this market.”
As a result, retail investors are stepping up their exodus after bailing on equities during the September rout.
They have kept selling this week even as the S&P 500 posted its biggest two-day rally since April 2020, according to an estimate by JPMorgan Chase & Co. based on public data on exchanges.
The degree of anguish among individual investors and traders has been so pronounced that a sentiment gauge by Sundial Capital Research that measures the group’s conviction on a stock rally — the so-called dumb-money confidence — plunged to around 20% last week.
That’s among the lowest levels since the firm started tracking the data in 1998.
From a contrarian perspective, the pessimism among retail investors is welcome news for market observers looking for signs of flushed-out sentiment that often signal the selloff has reached its trough.
With the economy likely to slow down next year, tech stocks and US equities are looking more attractive, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Robert Buckland.
They expect 18% returns for global stocks by the end of 2023 but warn “it will likely be a volatile ride.”
“US stocks are likely to stay volatile for the foreseeable future as the market continues to face worries related to high inflation, tightening monetary policy, supply chain issues, economic growth, and geopolitical uncertainty,” said Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
As rising interest rates rattle investors and threaten businesses’ profits, the US corporate-bond market will likely come under increased pressure, according to Arvind Narayanan at Vanguard Group Inc., who said the finances of corporations are “weakening incrementally” from very strong levels, which he anticipates will continue through the rest of 2022.
Mortgage rates in the US fell, shifting direction after a six-week streak of gains that sent borrowing costs to a 15-year high.
Even with the latest decline, mortgage costs have more than doubled since starting the year around 3% — a steep climb that has slammed the brakes on the pandemic housing rally, highlighting one of the Fed’s goals in its effort to cool inflation.
Elsewhere, Canada two-year yields hit the highest level since 2007 after the nation’s central bank Governor Tiff Macklem said he remains firmly on an interest-rate hiking path, quashing hopes for an imminent end to a tightening cycle that’s choking indebted households and threatening the economy with recession.
Key events this week:
* US unemployment, wholesale inventories, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks at event, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams speaks at event, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $0.9797
* The British pound fell 1.5% to $1.1157
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 145.11 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $20,010.03
* Ether rose 1% to $1,358.75
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.82%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.08%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 13 basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $89.01 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,722.70 an ounce
–With assistance from Srinivasan Sivabalan, Sujata Rao, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Engrave this upon thy heart: There isn’t anyone you couldn’t love once you’ve heard their story. –Mary Lou Kownacki, b. 1941.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1993, Daimler-Benz became the first German company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

On October 5, 1947, in the first televised White House address, President Truman asked Americans to refrain from eating meat on Tuesdays and poultry on Thursdays to help stockpile grain for starving people in Europe.  Go to article »

Earth may be hiding an ocean.

The world’s best bars for 2022 have been revealed.  Move over London. Step aside New York. There’s a new cosmopolitan cocktail capital.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Racehorse Alligator Blood is seen during a recovery session at Altona Beach, before races this weekend
Photograph: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

A new immersive space exhibition called Science Fiction: Voyage into the Unknown opens at the Science Museum
Photograph: Graeme Robertson/The Guardian

A man walks up the steep steps at the Diamond Hill cemetery during the Chung Yeung festival, where relatives clean the graves of loved ones and leave offerings and flowers
Photograph: Miguel Candela/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 5, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30273.87	-42.45
		-0.14%
S&P 500	3783.28	-7.65
		-0.20%
NASDAQ	11148.64	-27.77
		-0.25%
TSX	19235.09	-135.90
		-0.70%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27120.53	+128.32
		+0.48%
HANG SENG	18087.97	+1008.46
		+5.90%
SENSEX	58065.47	+1276.66
		+2.25%
FTSE 100*	7052.62	-33.84
		-0.48%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.279		3.127
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.220		3.124
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.7488		3.6349
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.7509		3.7011

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7345	0.7403
US $	1.3615	1.3508
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3457	0.7431
US  $	0.9884	1.0117

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1714.85	1668.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	87.76	86.52

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.7% at 19,235.09 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 2.6%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.9%. Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.6%.
Today, 165 of 236 shares fell, while 67 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 9.4%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* The index declined 4.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 13.4% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 5.9% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3.1% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 11.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year * The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.08t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 21.13% compared with 21.07% in the previous session and the average of 16.12% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -48.9120| -0.8| 4/25
Materials | -30.1634| -1.3| 12/38
Industrials | -22.3817| -0.9| 6/20
Utilities | -17.8901| -1.9| 0/16
Information Technology | -16.4418| -1.6| 5/9
Communication Services | -13.0216| -1.4| 1/6
Real Estate | -7.8992| -1.6| 1/21
Consumer Staples | -5.8969| -0.8| 2/9
Health Care | -0.8301| -1.0| 1/5
Consumer Discretionary | 0.3977| 0.1| 7/7
Energy | 27.1492| 0.8| 28/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -17.3300| -3.9| -30.4| 20.4
Constellation Software | -10.3500| -3.8| -21.7| -17.0
Brookfield Asset Management | -8.0650| -1.4| -30.0| -22.7
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.8090| 1.2| -30.4| 39.9
Suncor Energy | 8.9340| 2.2| -31.7| 39.7
Cenovus Energy | 10.4400| 4.7| 20.0| 58.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — For many stock traders, it felt just about right that the market would take a breather after the dramatic rally of the past couple of days.
After a bounce that started around noon in New York and was attributed to a big options trade, the S&P 500 came back lower again.
For a market plagued by fears about a recession and the Federal Reserve’s struggles to tame high inflation, the rebound from this year’s bottom has maybe gone too far, too fast.
Fundamentally speaking, nothing has changed that much to make the US central bank tilt toward a more moderate bias to prevent a hard landing.
In fact, what Wall Street got on Wednesday was a renewal of the unflinching resolve from Fed officials to crush inflation.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he favors lifting rates to between 4% and 4.5% by the end of this year, and then keeping the tightening in place.
He also echoed comments from his San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly, who downplayed speculation about rate cuts in 2023.
To Win Thin at Brown Brothers Harriman, the notion of any Fed pivot is just “wishful thinking” as Fed officials remain hawkish.
He says another 75-basis-point hike next month is a “done deal.”
“Over the last few sessions, the market was too quick price in the ‘peak rate’ story in markets,” said Bipan Rai, head of North America currency strategy at CIBC.
“Price pressures are set to remain sticky for some time and while the Fed might be closer to smaller incremental hikes than not, playing this via a ‘peak rate’ view is fairly dicey.”
Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, the extreme positive breadth of the recent rebound in stocks is likely something that tells us the rally will take a “breather” for a day or two, but it might not mean that the bounce is over.
“Yes, ‘bear-market rallies’ can see sharp advances that reverse almost immediately, so what we’ve seen over the last two days could be the ultimate head fake,” Maley added. “However, if the stock market can digest its gains of the last two days without a major reversal over the next few days, it’s likely that we’ll see a bit more upside follow-through to this week’s bounce before long.”
All eyes will now be on the government’s payrolls report Friday that’s forecast to show another month of robust job creation and the unemployment rate holding near a 50-year low.
To Charlie McElligot at Nomura Securities, Wednesday’s ADP employment print helped mitigate some of that “dovish vibe” that followed data showing a slide in US job openings, which lent credibility to the idea that the labor market could be moderating.
As the Fed intensifies its inflation fight, a report released Wednesday illustrated the abrupt swing in borrowing costs.
US mortgage rates jumped to a 16-year high of 6.75%, marking the seventh-straight weekly increase and spurring the worst slump in home loan applications since the depths of the pandemic.
If history is any guide, “markets will need to experience more stress” before a pivot in monetary policy and an equity bottom, Wells Fargo & Co. strategists led by Christopher Harvey wrote.
The Cboe Volatility Index is still trading below 40 – a threshold that in the past signaled a shift to monetary easing.
US stocks just posted a rare streak of quarterly declines and are in a bear market, but Citigroup Inc. quantitative strategists say they’re only just starting to reflect the risks of a recession.
A team led by Hong Li said equities could come under further pressure as they continue to be “heavily driven” by heightened bond market volatility as well as concerns around persistent inflation and hawkish Fed.
There’s “more downside risk for the market and the earnings season,” they wrote.
Retail investors, who helped push stocks to all-time highs, are now trying a different tactic: Betting against the market.
From January to August this year, even before the most recent slump in stocks, the number of newly opened short positions on trading platform eToro was 61% higher than in 2021 and 41% higher than in 2020.
Meanwhile, some of the biggest US exchange-traded funds that bet against popular indexes are raking in record amounts of cash.
Investors’ uncertainty toward the health of US companies is rising — and their leaders haven’t done much to help.
The lack of an accurate road map for the crucial earnings season is setting the stage for a slew of potential surprises when the reporting season kicks off in coming weeks.
Aside from those few providing cold, hard numbers, executives at the 1,000 largest US firms have spent the past three months voicing a similar message in their public remarks:
They’re unsure about what’s ahead. They’ve mentioned “uncertainty” or its synonyms when describing the outlook 484 times during that time, the highest tally since the quarter ending March 2021, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
BofA Strategist Says US Stock Rally Has Set Off a Bullish Signal
Key events this week:
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Charles Evans, Lisa Cook, Loretta Mester speak at events, Thursday
* US unemployment, wholesale inventories, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks at event, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams speaks at event, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 1% to $0.9884
* The British pound fell 1.3% to $1.1327
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 144.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1% to $20,130.68
* Ether fell 0.8% to $1,350.92
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 3.75%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 16 basis points to 2.03%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 16 basis points to 4.04%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $87.87 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,725.30 an ounce
–With assistance from Peyton Forte, Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee, Emily Graffeo and Farah Elbahrawy.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As always,

Carolann

In the realm of ideas everything depends on enthusiasm.  In the real world,
all rests on perseverance. -Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1749-1832.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

Just returned from an investment conference in NYC, first time in three years that it hasn’t been held virtually.  All eyes will be on third quarter earnings (quarter ending September 30^th) which will start to trickle in during the coming week and then flood the financial news next month.  War does change everything and the sabotaging of the Nord Stream pipeline last week will result in further disruption to energy supplies to Europe, hence until this war comes to an end or there is a regime change in Moscow, expect monetary policy by central bankers aimed at curbing the inflation that is the consequence of high energy prices as well as zero Covid policies in China, which are exacerbating supply chain shortages and further contributing to inflation.

On Oct. 3, 1990, West Germany and East Germany ended 45 years of postwar division, declaring the creation of a new unified country.  Go to article »
October 3, 1952: The United Kingdom successfully tests a nuclear weapon in the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, to become the world’s third nuclear power.

See what’s streaming in October:  There’s a plethora of fantastic shows and movies to stream this month on Netflix, Amazon, Disney+ and Hulu. Check out the list here (and yes, it includes some spooky offerings).

Tesla debuts a robot that can dance and water plants.  The robot, dubbed Optimus, walked on stage at Tesla’s AI Day, slowly waved at the crowd and gestured with its hands for about one minute. Watch the reveal here.

Nobel prize in medicine awarded to geneticist who sequenced Neanderthal genome.   The 2022 Nobel prize in physiology or medicine has been awarded to a Swedish geneticist who traced the evolution of modern day humans from the DNA of our close extinct relatives.  Svante Pääbo, a director at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany and one of the founders of the field of paleogenomics, is set to receive the 10 million Swedish krona ($900,500) prize for his pioneering work on the evolution of hominins, relatives of humans more closely related to us than chimpanzees, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm announced Monday (Oct. 3).  Full Story: Live Science (10/3) 
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The aurora borealis, more commonly known as the northern lights, illuminate the morning sky over Whitley Bay, North Tyneside
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Hikers ascend through clouds as they head to the summit in New Hampshire. A high-pressure system brought pleasant conditions to climbers on the first weekend of October
Photograph: Robert F Bukaty/AP

Bavarian mountain farmers bring their cattle down from summer pastures
Photograph: Matthias Schräder/AP
Market Closes for October 3, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29490.89	+765.38
		+2.66%
S&P 500	3678.43	+92.81
		+2.59%
NASDAQ	10815.43	+239.81
		+2.27%
TSX	18885.08	+440.86
		+2.39%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26215.79	+278.58
		+1.07%
HANG SENG	17079.51	-143.32
		-0.83%
SENSEX	56788.81	-638.11
		-1.11%
FTSE 100*	6908.76	+14.95
		+0.22%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.133		3.173
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.132		3.095
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.6486		3.8206
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.6849		3.7711

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7341	0.7238
US $	1.3622	1.3816
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3383	0.7472
US  $	0.9824	1.0179

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1671.75	1654.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.63	79.49

 Market Commentary:
On this day in 1913, less than 20 years after federal income tax was declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court, it came back from the dead as the Underwood-Simons bill (later known as the Income Tax Act of 1913) was enshrined into law by President Woodrow Wilson.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 2.4%, or 436.97 to 18,881.19 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2.9% on April 29, 2020.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 226 of 236 shares rose, while 9 fell.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.3%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the
largest increase, rising 12.7%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 11%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* The index declined 6.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 15% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 3.9% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3% in the past 5 days and fell 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 on a trailing basis and 11.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.94t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 19.40% compared with 17.77% in the previous session and the average of 15.62% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 149.3533| 4.6| 38/0
Financials | 83.7392| 1.4| 28/1
Industrials | 66.1268| 2.7| 25/2
Materials | 46.6920| 2.1| 50/0
Communication Services | 25.3281| 2.8| 7/0
Information Technology | 19.0104| 2.0| 13/1
Utilities | 14.2988| 1.5| 16/0
Consumer Staples | 12.2649| 1.6| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 11.7081| 1.8| 12/2
Real Estate | 7.0887| 1.5| 21/1
Health Care | 1.3607| 1.7| 6/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 31.2600| 6.3| -64.2| 30.6
Suncor Energy | 27.1800| 7.4| -30.5| 31.9
Canadian Pacific | 22.0300| 3.7| -0.7| 5.1
FirstService | -0.3130| -0.7| 1.9| -34.3
Boyd Group Services| -0.5860| -2.3| 77.9| -14.8
Saputo | -1.7020| -3.1| 92.4| 12.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks kicked off the week with big gains after suffering their worst September in two decades as Treasury yields halted a seemingly endless surge, with weak US manufacturing data soothing concern the Federal Reserve will overtighten monetary policy.
As a sign of exhaustion of the recent selling, about 95% of the S&P 500’s shares flashed green, with the gauge having its best day since July.
Aside from being oversold from a technical perspective, extreme pessimism and low fund positioning also fueled a rebound that followed its third-worst performance during the first nine months of a year since 1931.
In a bad-news-is-good-news world as far as Fed policy goes, a drop in the Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity suggested the economy may be faltering, reducing the urgency for more aggressive rate hikes. Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said the central bank still has more work to do to curb inflation, warning the process will take time.
Equities also managed to gain even in the face of Credit Suisse Group AG’s market turmoil and disappointing deliveries from electric-vehicle giant Tesla Inc.
“The market is oversold, and sentiment is extremely negative, so a bounce…even a sharp one…could happen at any time,” wrote Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “However, we see lower-lows before the ultimate bottom is reached for this bear market…as the stock market has not fully priced-in a recession.”
As equities snapped back, the Cboe Volatility Index dropped to around 30.
The VIX closed above that threshold every day last week. Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research said Friday he’d like to see the gauge closing over that mark for several more days before believing on a “tradeable low.”
Key technicals will likely need to capitulate before the S&P 500 can truly bottom, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Stephen Suttmeier.
Although the US equity market typically turns bullish in the fourth quarter of midterm election years, capitulation remains elusive in equity put-call ratios and S&P 500 selling volume.
Treasuries surged across the curve, with the five-year yield at one point plummeting over 30 basis points.
The 10-year rate sank to 3.65% after recently topping 4% and climbing for nine straight weeks. Swaps tied to Fed policy meeting dates fell sharply for early 2023.
The March meeting contract’s rate currently suggests a peak policy rate of 4.46% next year, down from recent highs above 4.60%.
The dollar slipped, yet the latest MLIV Pulse survey showed the greenback is expected to hit new highs over the next month.
Gold surged.
US coal prices surged past $200 for the first time as a global energy crunch drives up demand for the dirtiest fossil fuel.
Oil saw its biggest rally since July as potential OPEC+ output cuts heighten fears of supply tightness on the horizon.
Despite the rebound in risk assets, markets are bracing for more turbulence later this week as a crucial reading on the still-tight US labor market is set to give traders a chance to reassess the Fed’s commitment to its aggressive path of rate hikes.
Friday’s release of September job figures looms as a test of the central bank’s plan to rein in inflation by tightening policy further and unwinding its mammoth balance sheet.
The Fed should consider stopping its tightening campaign  after one more rate hike in November, according to Ed Yardeni, who coined terms like “Fed Model” and “bond vigilantes.”
The stress in financial markets from big rate increases, a surging dollar and quantitative tightening has reached the point that officials should make financial stability the top priority, he added.
“Investors are starting to doubt central banks globally will remain aggressive with fighting inflation as financial stability risks are growing,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. “It is too early to call for a Fed pivot, but it seems the action in Treasury markets suggests traders are growing confident that the global growth slowdown is starting to drag down pricing pressures.”
Brazilian assets soared after President Jair Bolsonaro secured his way to a runoff election against Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as investors cheered on the incumbent’s better-than-expected showing and bet his leftist challenger will be forced to moderate his stances in the second stretch of the race.
The real was the best-performing among the world’s major currencies Monday.
After two consecutive months of declines, Bitcoin advocates are hoping that the largest cryptocurrency reverts to form in October, which has typically been one of its best months for gains.
The virtual currency tends to rise roughly 25% in October and has, since 2015, advanced more than 85% of the time during it, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Traders are betting it will take a bigger UK government policy U-turn to restore credibility with markets.
Wagers against the pound over the next year have climbed to a record high in the options market, even after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng said he will scrap a proposed tax cut for the country’s highest earners.
Key events this week:
* Eurozone PPI, Tuesday
* US factory orders, durable goods, Tuesday
* Fed’s John Williams, Lorie Logan, Loretta Mester, Mary Daly speak at events, Tuesday
* Eurozone services PMIs, Wednesday
* OPEC+ meeting begins, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Wednesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Charles Evans, Lisa Cook, Loretta Mester speak at events, Thursday
* US unemployment, wholesale inventories, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks at event, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams speaks at event, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $0.9828
* The British pound rose 1.4% to $1.1325
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 144.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $19,556.6
* Ether rose 1.2% to $1,319.21
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 17 basis points to 3.65%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 19 basis points to 1.92%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 3.96%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.7% to $83.26 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 2.2% to $1,709.20 an ounce
–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Srinivasan Sivabalan, Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

We have taken a different course in our society.  We decided that we can separate private and public morality,
and thus we have, again rejected the lessons of history and of the past.  We have also, as a society, decided
that truth is not an absolute value.  Again, for the Greeks, truth and liberty were one and the same, and that there
were enduring truths like justice and honor ordained by the gods, and whatever the laws or the attitudes of the majority
might be, as Antigone tells us, “These laws of truth endure forever.” -Dr. Rufus J. Fears, 1945-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com