Month: October 2022

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Halloween!

According to the National Confectioners Association, sweets-makers reap 8% of their annual sales during Halloween, making it candy’s biggest holiday – $10.14 billion, up from $8.05 billion in 2020.

Boy’s family transforms wheelchair into creative Halloween costume.  If you’re in the mood for wholesome content, watch this family transform their 5-year-old boy’s wheelchair into an epic costume.

October 31, 2011: The global population of humans reaches seven billion.  This day is now recognized by the United Nations as the Day of Seven Billion.
On Oct. 31, 1984, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated near her residence by two Sikh security guards.  Go to article »

John Keats, poet, b. 1795.
Harry Houdini, magician, b. 1926.
Dan Rather, TV journalist, b.1931.

Officials say the ivory-billed woodpecker is extinct…But one man has made it his life’s mission to prove the bird is still alive. Check out this interactive story on his efforts.

The 100 best horror movies of all time.

Egyptians helped discover King Tut’s tomb. Now, they’re finally being recognized. British archaeologist Howard Carter is often credited with finding Tutankhamun’s tomb, but the names and identities of the Egyptians who did much of the work are largely unknown.  Now, in the exhibition “Tutankhamun: Excavating the Archive” at the University of Oxford’s Bodleian libraries, which runs through Feb. 5, 2023, photos of the Egyptians who uncovered King Tutankhamun’s tomb are displayed in an attempt to recognize them.  Full Story: Live Science (10/31)

The Day of the Dead isn’t Halloween. Here are its roots, from Aztec goddess worship to modern Mexican celebration: The Day of the Dead might sound like a solemn affair, but Mexico’s famous holiday is actually a lively commemoration of the departed.  The nationwide festivities, which include a massive parade in Mexico City, typically begin the night of Oct. 31 with families sitting vigil at grave sites. Mexican tradition holds that on Nov. 1 and 2, the dead awaken to reconnect and celebrate with their living family and friends. Given the timing, it may be tempting to equate Day of the Dead with Halloween, a ghost-themed U.S. holiday. But the two holidays express fundamentally different beliefs.  Full Story: Live Science (10/30)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Seoul, South Korea
A memorial in front of City Hall for victims of the Halloween celebration crush in the Itaewon district in which at least 153 people died
Photograph: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty

Noida, India
Hindus perform rituals to the Sun god in the Yamuna during Chhath Parva festival on the outskirts of Delhi
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty

Mangroves & Landscape – Winner | Walakiri Dancing Trees by Loïc Dupuis, Indonesia
The sun rises along the peaceful beaches of East Sumba in Indonesia. “I wanted to capture the beauty and fragility of this unique wonder. We need to protect and visit places like this with great care, so future generations can also enjoy them.”
Photograph: Loïc Dupuis/Mangrove Photographer of the Year
Market Closes for October 31, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	32732.95	-128.85
		-0.39%
S&P 500	3871.98	-29.08
		-0.75%
NASDAQ	10988.14	-114.31
		-1.03%
TSX	19426.14	-45.05
		-0.23%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27587.46	+482.26
		+1.78%
HANG SENG	14687.02	-176.04
		-1.18%
SENSEX	60746.59	+786.74
		+1.31%
FTSE 100*	7094.53	+46.86
		+0.66%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.252		3.234
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.287		3.317
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.0478		4.0081
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.1596		4.1351

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7340	0.7338
US $	1.3624	1.3628
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3463	0.7428
US  $	0.9883	1.0118

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1648.05	1659.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	86.53	87.90

Market Commentary:
🎃 On this day in 1933, in one of Wall Street’s nastiest Halloween surprises, Albert H. Wiggin, former president of the Chase National Bank, testified that his personal investment companies had borrowed money from Chase to short-sell $8 million worth of Chase’s own stock as it crumbled in the Crash of 1929. The revelation inspired Congress to add a provision to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 banning corporate officers from short-selling their own shares.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 19,426.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.5% on Oct. 20 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
NFI Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.6%.
Today, 153 of 236 shares fell, while 82 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.5%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 5.3%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2020
* The index declined 7.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.7% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.7% in the past 5 days and rose 5.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.56% compared with 22.72% in the previous session and the average of 22.25% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -25.9432| -0.4| 9/20
Materials | -19.8724| -0.9| 11/40
Information Technology | -12.0887| -1.1| 4/10
Consumer Staples | -9.0615| -1.1| 1/10
Real Estate | -6.1691| -1.3| 2/20
Consumer Discretionary | -5.4169| -0.8| 5/9
Communication Services | -3.6953| -0.4| 1/6
Utilities | -3.1478| -0.3| 6/10
Industrials | 2.3150| 0.1| 12/15
Health Care | 3.5008| 4.3| 3/4
Energy | 34.5227| 0.9| 28/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Asset Management | -7.2760| -1.4| 29.8| -29.4
Constellation Software | -6.7340| -2.5| 17.2| -16.1
TD Bank | -6.4680| -0.6| -39.4| -10.1
Canadian Pacific | 6.5940| 1.0| 79.2| 11.6
Suncor Energy | 9.5010| 2.2| 31.1| 48.1
Nutrien | 11.2000| 2.7| 36.8| 21.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks pared their monthly surge as bond yields climbed, with investors awaiting Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision for clues on whether officials will dial back the pace of rate hikes as early as December.
Big tech weighed heavily on the S&P 500, while energy shares whipsawed on news that President Joe Biden will call on Congress to consider tax penalties for producers accruing record profits.
Equities may also have come under pressure as pension funds that rebalance on a monthly basis potentially dumped shares amid an 8% rally for the US benchmark gauge in October.
A selloff in bonds across the curve sent two-year US yields to around 4.5%. Swap markets are pricing in a 75-basis-point hike this week amid the Fed’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in four decades.
The outlook for the following meetings is less certain, with traders seeing a “coin toss” between an increase of that size and a 50-basis-point boost in the final month of 2022.
“This week will be loaded with scary stuff, from the Fed meeting and press conference to employment data on Friday,” wrote Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management. “Market expectations are for the Fed to begin signaling that their very aggressive rate hiking cycle will begin slowing down.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic is joining strategists who believe the aggressive hiking is nearing an end.
The US will likely raise rates by 50 basis points in December and pause after one more 25-basis-point hike in the first quarter, he said. Indicators such as the inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and three-month Treasuries “all support a Fed pivot sooner rather than later,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Although October can evoke fear on Wall Street following stock market crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008, it’s living up to its reputation as the best month in US midterm election years.
Now traders are holding out hope this October will follow a historical pattern of being a “bear-market killer” following a turbulent year for equities.
When it comes to elections, the fourth quarter of midterm years and the following first quarter historically have been the two strongest of the 16-quarter presidential cycle, delivering average gains of 6.4% and 6.9% respectively for the S&P 500, according to investment research firm CFRA.
November has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for US stocks, said Bespoke Investment Group.
The S&P 500 has experienced an average gain of 0.82% with positive returns 69% of the time, according to data going back to 1983.
Over the last 10 years, the gauge saw a median advance of 1.26% and gains nine out of 10 times.
To Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management, while the recent rally in stocks didn’t really look sustainable, that doesn’t mean markets can’t keep grinding higher in coming weeks, “provided that the Fed and labor and inflation data don’t disappoint.”
Global economic reports didn’t help sentiment on Monday.
Euro-area inflation surged to a fresh all-time high, while the bloc’s economy lost momentum — reinforcing fears that a recession is now all-but unavoidable.
China’s factory and services activity contracted in October, with signs that things could worsen in the coming months.
Wheat prices soared after Russia suspended a deal guaranteeing safe passage of Ukrainian exports, with Moscow warning that shipments become “much riskier” without its participation even as new vessels loaded with crops set sail
from Ukraine. 
Key events this week:
* Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision, Tuesday
* US construction spending, ISM manufacturing index, Tuesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment, Wednesday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.8% to $0.9883
* The British pound fell 1.3% to $1.1468
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 148.68 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $20,374.98
* Ether fell 2% to $1,563.92
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.05%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.14%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $86.16 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,636.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Singleness of purpose is one of the chief essentials for success in life, no matter what may be one’s aim. –John D. Rockefeller Sr., 1839-1937.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
St Jude’s Day

October 28,1636: Harvard University founded.

On Oct. 28, 1886, the Statue of Liberty, a gift from the people of France, was dedicated in New York Harbor by President Grover Cleveland.  Go to article »

Erasmus, writer, b. 1467
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, b. 1955.
Julia Roberts, actress, b. 1967.

8-year-old boy is over halfway to reaching the summit of El Capitan.  The Colorado boy who set out this week to become the youngest person to climb one of the most difficult rock formations in the world is more than halfway to reaching the summit.

Photo of coal miner dad goes viral.  We have another contender for father of the year! This coal miner didn’t want to miss his son’s first basketball experience, so he rushed straight from work to the game — covered in black coal dust. See the photo here.

Brain scans can now reveal what your dog is staring at.  Does your dog really love you? Or does it only behave because it wants food and treats? Watch this short video to see what researchers are saying.

Game 1 of the World Series is today.  The Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros will face off today for a place in MLB history. Here’s how to watch.

This Piet Mondrian panting has been hanging upside down for 75 years.

If the truth is out there, America’s space experts may soon find it. On Monday (Oct. 24), NASA officially launched an independent study into UFOs — or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) — the agency announced in a statement.

UFOs are finally getting the big NASA study they deserve: The study will run for the next nine months, with a team of 16 leading experts — including astrophysicists, aerospace industry executives and former astronauts — digging into as much data as possible about reported UAP sightings.  Full Story: Live Science (10/28)

Gigantic radiation storms have been pummeling Earth for at least 10,000 years and could strike again, tree ring analysis reveals: A series of sudden and colossal spikes in radiation levels across Earth’s history could have come from a series of unknown, unpredictable and potentially catastrophic cosmic events, a new study has revealed.
Named Miyake events after the lead author of the first study to describe them, the spikes occur roughly once every 1,000 years or so and are recorded as sudden increases in the radiocarbon levels of ancient tree rings.
Full Story: Live Science (10/27)

Meet the very richest families in the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York City, US
A man walks on the Coney Island boardwalk during a foggy morning in the Brooklyn borough of New York City
Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Vaila, Shetland
There is an 18th century watchtower on the Isle of Vaila from which the new owner can survey their small empire and keep an eye out for any intruders. Sir John Betjeman was a big fan of this islet in the west of Shetland now used as an organic farm. As well as 306 hectares (757 acres), it comes with a 17th century castellated mansion with six bedrooms, a farmhouse, a caretaker’s cottage and 57 hectares (142 acres) suitable for grazing. In total it has 6.5 miles of craggy coastline with sheltered bays and hidden caves.
Photograph: Savills
A tractor ploughing a field in Kars, Turkey, is surrounded by a flock of birds
Photograph: Ismail Kaplan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 28, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	32861.80	+828.52
		+2.59%
S&P 500	3901.06	+93.76
		+2.46%
NASDAQ	11102.45	+309.78
		+2.87%
TSX	19471.19	+119.08
		+0.62%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27105.20	-240.04
		-0.88%
HANG SENG	14863.06	-564.88
		-3.66%
SENSEX	59959.85	+203.01
		+0.34%
FTSE 100*	7047.67	-26.02
		-0.37%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.234		3.192
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.317		3.321
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.0081		3.9105
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.1351		4.0759

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7338	0.7370
US $	1.3628	1.3569
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3578	0.7365
US  $	0.9962	1.0038

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1659.75	1666.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	87.90	89.08

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1929, on what would forever be called “Black Monday,” the Great Crash began in earnest. Packard Motor Car plunged 50.7%, RCA dropped 31.3% and Montgomery Ward lost 20.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 13.5%, then a record loss. In a single day, more than an eighth of the U.S. stock market’s value was erased
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 0.6%, or 119.08 to 19,471.19 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Sept. 19.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
Imperial Oil Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 9.1%.
Today, 151 of 236 shares rose, while 85 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.3%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 5.6%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2020
* So far this week, the index rose 3.2%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended July 29
* The index declined 8.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 12.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.09t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.72% compared with 22.80% in the previous session and the average of 21.83% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 57.7638| 1.0| 26/3
Industrials | 23.1641| 0.9| 20/7
Information Technology | 19.5404| 1.8| 12/2
Consumer Staples | 12.1253| 1.5| 9/2
Consumer Discretionary | 10.9827| 1.6| 12/2
Utilities | 9.7114| 1.1| 13/3
Communication Services | 3.4595| 0.4| 5/2
Health Care | 1.0959| 1.4| 5/2
Real Estate | 0.9275| 0.2| 16/6
Energy | 0.4874| 0.0| 16/22
Materials | -20.1845| -0.9| 17/34
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | 8.6090| 1.3| -45.7| 4.3
RBC | 8.3530| 0.7| -48.1| -6.5
Imperial Oil | 8.3030| 9.1| 126.9| 61.4
TC Energy | -5.0160| -1.2| -52.5| 1.2
Shaw Communications | -7.1000| -6.3| 118.4| -11.6
Teck Resources | -11.4100| -7.8| 93.4| 17.5
US
By Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended a turbulent week with a sizable gain as Apple Inc.’s earnings report buoyed technology shares and a smattering of economic data suggested a modicum of progress is being made in the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation.
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notched their longest weekly rising streaks since August.
Gains in big-tech companies including Microsoft Corp. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. helped both indexes snap a two-day decline.
Treasuries turned weaker on Friday, breaking a three-day rally after hopes of a Fed pivot fizzled.
The dollar rose for the second straight session.
Stocks, bonds and the dollar whipsawed this week as investors attempted to make sense of conflicting earnings reports and economic data.
Quarterly reports from mega-cap technology firms underscored the impact of the Fed’s tightening regime, and consequently the surging dollar.
But overall, earnings still largely beat estimates, with Caterpillar Inc., which is considered a bellwether firm, highlighting strong buyer demand.
Meanwhile, a core gauge of US inflation accelerated in September, bolstering the Fed’s case for another jumbo rate hike next week.
But a contraction in manufacturing and services, and lower-than-expected US home sales, indicated that the Fed’s actions are already hitting the economy.
Gross domestic product data, which came in on Thursday, briefly assuaged concerns of an imminent recession.
Economists are still expecting the Fed to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the fourth time in a row next week.
Rates are projected to rise another half point in December, then by quarter points the following two meetings.
“It is too early to expect the Fed to signal a more dovish stance,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We maintain our view for economic growth to bottom out in the middle of 2023 and for the Fed to stop hiking in 1Q23.”

US investors also closely watched the actions of other central banks.
While the European Central Bank delivered a second straight 75 basis-point hike on Thursday, it dropped a prior reference to rate increases continuing for “several meetings,” an outcome that was considered dovish.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada announced a smaller-than-expected rate hike, which briefly stoked speculation that the Fed could follow suit.
The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, stood by its ultra-low interest rates at the end of a two-day long policy meeting on Friday.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $0.9965
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.1617
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 147.44 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $20,620.71
* Ether rose 2% to $1,558.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.99%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 2.10%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 3.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $88.13 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1% to $1,648.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Reade Pickert and Tassia Sipahutar.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

All men age, as all men die. The thing is not to die too soon, Se҄ῇora, and to live wisely.  To live a long time is nothing,
to live a long time wisely is something. –Louis L’Amour, 1908-1988.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

October 27, 1904: The first underground New York City Subway line opens, later designated as the IRT Broadway–Seventh Avenue Line.  While London boasts the world’s oldest underground train network (opened in 1863) and Boston built the first subway in the United States in 1897, the New York City subway soon became the largest American system.
2005: Surgeons in France performed the world’s first partial face transplant on a woman who was mauled by a dog.  Go to article »
1787: Federalist Papers published.
Theodore Roosevelt, 26^th president, b. 1858.
Dylan Thomas, poet, b. 1914.
Sylvia Plath, poet, b.1932

Why haunted houses and horror movies make us happy.

Welcome to the age of cacio e pepe. (h/t Mike Nizza)

Blue jeans from the 1800s found in an abandoned mine shaft.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
Maya Renard, six, gives a poppy to the 98-year-old D-day veteran Bernard Morgan, whose story is among those featured on a wall of poppies, at the launch of the Royal British Legion’s 2022 poppy appeal
Photograph: Victoria Jones/PA

Sydney, Australia
Oleksii Kniazkov and Vladyslava Ihnatenko of the United Ukrainian Ballet perform during rehearsals of Swan Lake at the ICC Sydney theatre
Photograph: Don Arnold/WireImage
Skye high
‘A break in the weather looking down the Trotternish Ridge, Isle of Skye, from the Quiraing.’
Photograph: Mike Williamson
Market Closes for October 27, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	32033.28	+194.17
		+0.61%
S&P 500	3807.30	-23.30
		-0.61%
NASDAQ	10792.68	-178.31
		-1.63%
TSX	19352.11	+72.35
		+0.38%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27345.24	-86.60
		-0.32%
HANG SENG	15427.94	+110.27
		+0.72%
SENSEX	59756.84	+212.88
		+0.36%
FTSE 100*	7073.69	+17.62
		+0.25%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.192		3.277
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.321		3.421
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.9105		4.0090
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.0759		4.1476

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7370	0.7379
US $	1.3569	1.3552
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3518	0.7398
US  $	0.9964	1.0036

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1666.75	1659.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	89.08	87.91

Market Commentary:
🐂 On this day in 1923, the greatest bull market of the 20th century began after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day at 85.76. It lasted nearly 6 years and lifted stocks by 344.5% until the Dow hit 381.17. Then, beginning in 1929, the Great Crash pulled stocks down by 89%, erasing nearly all those gains.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.4%, or 72.35 to 19,352.11 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Oct. 4.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 6 of 11 sectors gained; 106 of 236 shares rose, while 126 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 17.1%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.8%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 4.9%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2020
* So far this week, the index rose 2.6%
* The index declined 7.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.3% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.08t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.80% compared with 22.89% in the previous session and the average of 21.55% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 54.1296| 5.3| 6/8
Financials | 29.2102| 0.5| 22/7
Energy | 5.0075| 0.1| 15/21
Communication Services | 4.4565| 0.5| 4/3
Utilities | 4.0357| 0.5| 13/3
Consumer Staples | 0.6347| 0.1| 4/6
Industrials | -0.1665| 0.0| 19/8
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3938| -0.1| 5/9
Health Care | -3.0238| -3.6| 0/7
Real Estate | -5.5575| -1.1| 9/13
Materials | -15.9689| -0.7| 9/41
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 55.2100| 17.1| 87.9| -73.5
TC Energy | 8.6380| 2.1| -33.9| 2.4
Enbridge | 7.2480| 1.0| -49.3| 7.2
Teck Resources | -7.9590| -5.1| 107.8| 27.4
Suncor Energy | -8.1710| -1.9| -18.4| 43.4
Canadian National | -8.3550| -1.2| 19.3| 3.0
US
By Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street contended with another volatile session as investors mulled the Federal Reserve’s path of interest-rate hikes while assessing mixed economic data and a slew of earnings reports.
Amazon.com Inc. plunged after hours as its sales forecast trailed estimates.
Shares of Apple Inc. also fell post market despite largely beating expectations.
The S&P 500 closed lower, after swinging between gains and losses for most of the session
The Nasdaq 100 fell more than 1%. Lackluster earnings from several mega-cap firms this week dampened sentiment and underscored the impact of the Fed’s tightening regime.
Meta Platforms Inc. suffered its worst one-day drop since February on Thursday, triggered by burgeoning metaverse costs and a decline in revenue.
Markets were also mixed on US gross domestic product data.
The report showed the US economy rebounded after two quarterly contractions, which briefly assuaged concerns of an imminent recession.
But it also highlighted that consumer spending remains under pressure because of inflation.
Treasuries gained, with the 10-year yield pushing below 4% on speculation of a Fed pivot.
The dollar snapped a two-day drop.
The stock and currency markets digested the GDP data differently because it’s difficult to tell what the Fed is planning to do next, said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index.
“The US dollar is reading into this that perhaps it’s going to keep the Fed on that hawkish path for longer,” Cincotta said by phone. “Whereas the stock market seems to be reading it completely differently, almost as if it’s expecting the Fed to be sort of moving toward that less hawkish stuff.”

Economists still expect the Fed to hike by three-quarters of a percentage point for the fourth time in a row when it meets next week.
But with recent data highlighting the effects of the Fed’s sharp rate hikes on the economy, investors expect the central bank to slow its pace of tightening after November’s meeting.
“It’s not about a pivot and cutting interest rates,” Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MAPsignals, said in an interview. “It’s just about the Fed becoming more data-dependent and acknowledging there’s already a lot of tightening in the pipeline from all the rate hikes they’ve put through so far.”
Earlier, the European Central Bank lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points — in line with expectations — and signaled more tightening ahead.
But ECB officials weren’t unanimous about the size of the interest-rate hike and sought to avoid giving a specific signal on their next move in December, according to people familiar with the matter.
Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan policy decision, Friday
* US personal income, personal spending, pending home sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 1.1% to $0.9971
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.1575
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 146.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $20,630.98
* Ether rose 0.6% to $1,562.65
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 3.93%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 15 basis points to 1.96%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 17 basis points to 3.40%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $89.01 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,665.50 an ounce
–With assistance from Elaine Chen, Emily Graffeo and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Never give in – never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty,
never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense.  Never yield to force;
never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy. -Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Hello, “Big Dark.” Today, the sun will set after 6 p.m. for the last time of the year, ushering in our gloomy season (or cozy season, depending on how you look at it). The darkening accelerates as we head for the winter solstice …

October 26, 1825: The Erie Canal opened, connecting Lake Erie and the Hudson River in upstate New York.  Go to article »

The search for habitable planets may have just gotten narrower.  Scientists have long theorized a certain type of star could support life beyond Earth… but now, that idea is looking unlikely.

Coke products might look a little different next year.  You may have heard about Coke’s bizarre, limited-time flavors. Well, now the company is also experimenting with its packaging.

9 incredible treasures discovered in King Tut’s tomb:  Tutankhamun’s tomb, discovered by archaeologists in the Valley of the Kings on Nov. 4, 1922, was found loaded with treasures. Some of those artifacts, like his death mask, are widely known. But others, such as a mannequin that may have helped the boy king choose what to wear, are less famous but offer insight into King Tut’s life.
Here are nine fascinating treasures from Tutankhamun’s tomb and what they reveal about the iconic ancient Egyptian pharaoh 100 years after the discovery of his remains.  Full Story: Live Science (10/26)

Stunning (and spooky) photos of the final solar eclipse of 2022:  On Tuesday (Oct. 25), the moon’s shadow appeared to creep over the face of the sun during the last solar eclipse of 2022.
Though the eclipse was just partial, with most viewers seeing between 40% and 60% of the sun’s surface obscured by the moon at the eclipse’s peak, the event nonetheless drew out sky-watchers with cameras, telescopes and paper eclipse viewers around the world. The eclipse was visible from most of Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and the western parts of Asia, beginning in the U.K. around 10 a.m. BST (9:00 a.m. UTC).  Full Story: Live Science (10/25)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dubai, UAE
A general view of Dubai Miracle Garden, which is the largest flower garden in the world with millions of flowers in its 72,000 sq metres of land
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Fully Loaded, Kevin Williams – winner, urban life
The port of Felixstowe, Suffolk
Photograph: Kevin Williams/Landscape photographer of the year 2022

​​​​​​​Highlands, Jian Hui Mo – winner, youth classic view
Whilst climbing in Glencoe, Scotland, I noticed this blue haze in the distance, shrouding the landscape in mystery. I switched to my long lens and took this image over the loch
Photograph: Jian Hui Mo/Landscape photographer of the year 2022
Market Closes for October 26, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	31839.11	+2.37
		+0.01%
S&P 500	3830.60	-28.51
		-0.74%
NASDAQ	10970.99	-228.13
		-2.04%
TSX	19279.76	+182.75
		+0.96%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27431.84	+181.56
		+0.67%
HANG SENG	15317.67	+152.08
		+1.00%
SENSEX	59543.96	-287.70
		-0.48%
FTSE 100*	7056.07	+42.59
		+0.61%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.277		3.477
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.421		3.576
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.0090		4.0667
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.1476		4.2216

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7379	0.7350
US $	1.3552	1.3606
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3665	0.7318
US  $	1.0083	0.9918

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1659.25	1649.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	87.91	86.82

Market Commentary:
🚢 On this day in 1825, the Erie Canal was inaugurated as New York City hosted a flotilla of boats with a parade, banquet and fireworks after they traversed the 363-mile run from Lake Erie. Financed with $6 million in stock and bonds, the canal cut shipping time from New York to Buffalo from three weeks to eight days—and slashed the cost of transporting goods from $100 a ton to $15. Suddenly the American frontier was opened to a two-way flood of commerce.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1%, or 182.75 to 19,279.76 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Oct. 4.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Capstone Copper Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.3%.
Today, 177 of 236 shares rose, while 59 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 9.2%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 4.5%, heading for the biggest advance since October 2021
* The index declined 8.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 13.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.05t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 22.89% compared with 22.72% in the previous session and the average of 21.27% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 55.8061| 1.5| 36/2
Materials | 39.4510| 1.8| 41/10
Industrials | 32.9306| 1.3| 20/7
Communication Services | 19.1135| 2.1| 7/0
Financials | 17.3472| 0.3| 18/11
Real Estate | 7.1684| 1.5| 19/3
Consumer Staples | 6.9112| 0.9| 7/4
Consumer Discretionary | 3.8352| 0.6| 10/4
Utilities | 3.4161| 0.4| 8/8
Health Care | 2.0123| 2.5| 5/2
Information Technology | -5.2413| -0.5| 6/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | 20.0600| 3.0| 93.7| 4.2
Canadian Pacific | 9.9220| 1.6| 4.5| 9.1
Shaw Communications | 7.5940| 7.2| 551.9| -4.9
TD Bank | -2.2390| -0.2| -30.9| -10.2
Nutrien | -6.7520| -1.6| -21.4| 17.1
Shopify | -9.5560| -2.9| 11.8| -77.3
US
By Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — US stocks dropped as investors parsed fresh economic data and disappointing earnings while mulling the Federal Reserve’s path after the Bank of Canada announced a smaller-than-expected rate hike.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 pushed lower, dragged by losses in Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. after the firms reported earnings that highlighted the impact the Fed, and consequently the surging dollar, had on the economy. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s comments also dampened sentiment in the afternoon after he said he doesn’t see Iran nuclear talks advancing in the short term.
Treasuries rallied after data showed the US merchandise-trade deficit widening. Sales of new US homes fell in September, another indication that the economy is starting to see the effects of the Fed raising rates sharply.
A gauge of the dollar declined for a second day to its lowest level in three weeks.
Stocks had been buoyed in recent days by mostly solid earnings and speculation the Federal Reserve may curb the pace of rate increases.
While disappointing earnings from mega-cap firms subdued sentiment on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada unexpectedly slowing its pace of interest-rate hikes briefly boosted markets.
But that wore off as some investors decided that it doesn’t necessarily mean the Fed will follow suit.
In any case, it’ll be challenging for the Fed to announce that they’re going to be less hawkish, as they have to manage investors’ expectations along the way, according to Dustin Thackeray, chief investment officer at Crewe Advisors.
“They obviously don’t want to be too dovish and the market is obviously looking for any sort of a sign from the Fed that we’re hitting the break, so to speak, on rate increases,” he said by phone. “If they continue on their too hawkish stance, here is a risk that things kind of get out of hand on that end as well. So they’re definitely walking a very fine line.”
Key events this week:
* Earnings due this week include: Apple, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor, Credit Suisse, Airbus, Amazon, Bank of China, Boeing, Caterpillar, Cnooc, Intel, McDonald’s, Merck, Samsung Electronics, Shell, Vale, Volkswagen
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Bank of Japan policy decision, Friday
* US personal income, personal spending, pending home sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 3:34 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.9%
* The euro rose 1.1% to $1.0080
* The British pound rose 1.3% to $1.1626
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 146.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.7% to $20,743.2
* Ether rose 6% to $1,562.93
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.58%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.3% to $88.10 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,668.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Allegra Catelli, Abigail Moses, Robert Brand, Vildana Hajric and Peyton Forte.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule. –H. L. Mencken, 1880-1956.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
October 25, 1983: A U.S.-led force invaded Grenada at the order of President Ronald Reagan, who said the action was needed to protect U.S. citizens there.  Go to article »

October 25, 1955: Tappan Stove Company sells the first domestic microwave oven, a large, 220V wall unit priced at $1295 to low sales.  The technology was licensed from Raytheon who had filed a patent for the microwave cooking process in 1945.  The appliance was born of the radar systems used in World War II and the labs of what is ow one of the biggest U.S. defense companies.

Geoffrey Chaucer, author, d. 1400.
Pablo Picasso b.1881.

Hundreds of medieval skeletons, half of them children, discovered under Wales department store:  Archaeologists in Wales have unearthed the skeletal remains of more than 240 people — about half of which were children — in a cemetery that they believe was once part of a medieval friary.   Scientists made the discovery during an ongoing excavation of what was once St. Saviour’s Priory, a holy site founded in 1256 by a Dominican order of monks.  Full Story: Live Science (10/25)

The last solar eclipse of the year can be seen today.  But those in the US will have to miss out on this one… It will be visible in parts of Greenland, Iceland, most of Europe, northeast Africa, and parts of Asia.

Ancient Korean silk paintings get a mind-bending contemporary spin.  These artworks put a modern spin on historical painting styles. Take a look.

We’re all going to need to relearn how to use the internet once AI arrives. — Tyler Cowen.

The perfect avocado does not exis—.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

King Charles III welcomes Rishi Sunak during an audience at Buckingham Palace, where he invited the newly elected leader of the Conservative party to become prime minister and form a new government
Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

A partial solar eclipse is visible over Cullercoats Watch House
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA
I took this photo of the two gannets as they flew over our heads when we were on a boat just off the coast of Cornwall. A large number of gannets were diving around us – a spectacular sight!
Photograph: Thomas Easterbrook/Landscape photographer of the year 2022
Market Closes for October 25, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	31836.74	+337.12
		+1.07%
S&P 500	3859.11	+61.77
		+1.63%
NASDAQ	11199.12	+246.51
		+2.25%
TSX	19097.01	+178.61
		+0.94%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27250.28	+275.38
		+1.02%
HANG SENG	15165.59	-15.10
		-0.10%
SENSEX	59543.96	-287.70
		-0.48%
FTSE 100*	7013.48	-0.51
		-0.01%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.477		3.575
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.576		3.660
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.0667		4.2424
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.2216		4.3784

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7350	0.7294
US $	1.3606	1.3710
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3564	0.7372
US  $	0.9969	1.0031

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1649.15	1643.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	86.82	86.23

Market Commentary:
💸 On this day in 1907, as the Panic of 1907 continued, J.P. Morgan raised still more cash to prop up struggling brokerage firms, this time flushing up $10 million to lend at the New York Stock Exchange. Brokers shouted with joy as they saw the cigar-chomping Mr. Morgan barging back to his office to announce that he had raised the money.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.9%, or 178.61 to 19,097.01 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Oct. 5.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.4%.
Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest increase, rising 25.7%.
Today, 190 of 236 shares rose, while 42 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 10%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 3.5%
* The index declined 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 14% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 6.8% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.6% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.02t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.72% compared with 22.99% in the previous session and the average of 21.19% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 45.1119| 0.8| 27/2
Materials | 28.4895| 1.3| 34/17
Industrials | 22.7316| 0.9| 21/5
Information Technology | 18.8551| 1.9| 12/1
Utilities | 14.3152| 1.6| 15/0
Energy | 13.8123| 0.4| 25/12
Consumer Discretionary | 9.1042| 1.3| 13/1
Real Estate | 8.8482| 1.9| 22/0
Communication Services | 7.3645| 0.8| 7/0
Consumer Staples | 5.1632| 0.7| 7/4
Health Care | 4.8372| 6.3| 7/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | 17.8500| 4.4| 7.7| 19.0
Brookfield Asset Management | 11.1100| 2.2| 9.0| -30.1
Shopify | 9.3110| 2.9| -16.9| -76.7
Waste Connections | -0.9740| -0.3| -53.2| 4.6
CCL Industries | -1.0700| -1.6| -17.6| -2.4
Imperial Oil | -1.1460| -1.3| -22.8| 44.2
US
By Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rose on Tuesday after a fresh batch of corporate earnings largely beat estimates even as investors weighed risks to economic growth from the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to combat inflation.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose for a third straight session.
The Coca-Cola Co. and General Motors Co. closed the session in green after topping analysts’ earnings estimates.
Google parent Alphabet Inc. fell post market after missing estimates.
Microsoft Corp. which also reported earnings after markets closed, topped expectations but cited the impact the surging US dollar had on revenue growth.
Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield falling to around 4.08%.
The dollar dropped after data on Tuesday showed that home-price growth in the US slowed as high borrowing costs sapped demand.
Investors still expect the Fed to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point during its meeting next week.
But recent economic data is already showing that Fed tightening has started to weigh on the US economy, leading investors to speculate that the central bank may be approaching the end of its aggressive tightening campaign.
This renewed expectation of less hawkishness from the Fed, as well as a better-than-expected earnings season so far, have pushed stocks higher in recent days.
“The big thing is what we’re seeing from earnings, and as we get more and more, the market is coming around to this sense that the outlooks aren’t nearly as bad as some had feared,” Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade, said in an interview. “The market was actually bracing itself for more pessimistic tones from companies as we got through earnings and it’s not coming out that way right now. It’s mixed too, but even being mixed is ahead of expectations.”
Roughly 28% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with around 70% outperforming estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Analysts are also expecting a jumbo hike of 75 basis points from the ECB on Thursday, even as many economists now reckon a recession has begun in the euro region.
German business confidence improved in October, data showed Tuesday, though remained at depressed levels as Europe’s largest economy heads into a challenging winter.
Elsewhere in markets, the British pound gained as Rishi Sunak formally took over as UK prime minister on Tuesday, vowing to “fix” the mistakes made by his predecessor, Liz Truss. 
Key events this week:
* Earnings due this week include: Apple, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor, Credit Suisse, Airbus, Amazon, Bank of China, Boeing, Caterpillar, Cnooc, Intel, McDonald’s, Mercedes-Benz, Merck, Samsung Electronics, Shell, Vale, Visa, Volkswagen
* Bank of Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Bank of Japan policy decision, Friday
* US personal income, personal spending, pending home sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 0.9% to $0.9967
* The British pound rose 1.7% to $1.1471
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.93 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.6% to $20,274.81
* Ether rose 11% to $1,493.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 16 basis points to 4.08%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 16 basis points to 2.17%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 3.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $85.02 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,657.90 an ounce
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

We shall be judged more by what we do at home than what we preach abroad. –John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf. 

This photo gallery of animals doing hilarious things will make your day that much better. 

Falcon shrine with cryptic message unearthed in Egypt baffles archaeologist Archaeologists in Egypt have discovered a 1,700-year-old “falcon shrine,” complete with the remains of 15 headless falcons on a pedestal, as well as a stone monument depicting two unknown gods.

The shrine and monument — which were found in Berenike, an ancient Egyptian port on the Red Sea — were described in a paper that was published in the October issue of the American Journal of Archaeology. An iron harpoon that is about 13 inches (34 centimeters) long was found near the pedestal, researchers wrote in the study.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
The Pillars of Creation captured by the James Webb Space Telescope in near-infrared-light view
Photograph: NASA/ESA/CSA/STScI/AP

Titian’s Venus and Adonis (c1555-57) is unveiled at Sotheby’s where it will lead December’s old masters evening sale. With an estimate of between £8m and £12m, the painting is considered one of the very finest versions of Titian’s most popular composition and the most important work by the artist to come to the market this century
Photograph: Tristan Fewings/Getty Images for Sotheby’s

Competitors take part in the IQFoil World Championships. Designated an Olympic discipline in 2019, IQFoil, a type of windsurfing, will make its first Olympics appearance at the Paris 2024 Games
Photograph: Fred Tanneau/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 21, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	31082.56	+748.97
		+2.47%
S&P 500	3752.75	+86.97
		+2.37%
NASDAQ	10859.71	+244.87
		+2.31%
TSX	18860.95	+281.66
		+1.52%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26890.58	-116.38
		-0.43%
HANG SENG	16211.12	-69.10
		-0.42%
SENSEX	59307.15	+104.25
		+0.18%
FTSE 100*	6969.73	+25.82
		+0.37%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.616		3.666
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.695		3.666
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.2167		4.2367
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.3335		4.2289

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7317	0.7264
US $	1.3666	1.3766
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3466	0.7426
US  $	0.9853	1.0149

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1635.30	1631.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	86.65	85.98

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1929, William Peter Hamilton, editor of The Wall Street Journal and one of the leading advocates of the “Dow Theory” of technical analysis, predicted the coming demise of the bull market in a lead editorial entitled “The Turn in the Tide.” He turned out to be right, as the stock market crashed just three days later.   
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.5% at 18,860.95 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since Oct. 6 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 11.5%.
Today, 199 of 236 shares rose, while 34 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 16 times. The next day, it advanced 10 times for an average 0.9% and declined six times for an average 1.1%
* This year, the index fell 11%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 2.3%
* So far this week, the index rose 2.9%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended July 29
* The index declined 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 15.1% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 5.5% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 on a trailing basis and 11.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.97t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 23.26% compared with 23.50% in the previous session and the average of 20.27% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 77.5249| 1.4| 26/3
Materials | 68.7618| 3.2| 48/3
Energy | 54.1342| 1.5| 28/9
Industrials | 35.3564| 1.5| 24/3
Consumer Staples | 12.4849| 1.6| 8/3
Consumer Discretionary | 9.1606| 1.4| 13/1
Utilities | 6.8786| 0.8| 12/4
Communication Services | 5.6942| 0.6| 6/1
Real Estate | 5.4296| 1.2| 20/2
Information Technology | 4.8375| 0.5| 9/4
Health Care | 1.4194| 1.9| 5/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 19.2000| 1.6| -23.0| -7.8
TD Bank | 16.6700| 1.6| -40.4| -11.1
Suncor Energy | 14.8200| 3.6| -30.3| 43.8
ARC Resources | -2.3790| -2.8| -33.4| 58.2
Nutrien | -2.4860| -0.6| 1.0| 18.9
Shopify | -3.2670| -1.0| 49.3| -76.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw another day of big reversals, with stocks notching their best week since June after a Treasury rout sputtered. The yen jumped as Japan intervened again to prop up the currency.
At a time when traders have been fixated on the outlook for interest rates, it’s no surprise that all the drama in the world’s biggest bond market would dictate sentiment. After being all over the place in early trading, equities climbed strongly as US yields fell from multiyear highs.
“The story this week is all about the volatility in rates, huge volatility in Treasuries,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services. “But I would say, overall, relative to how much interest rates have moved up, I would say the market has held in there pretty well.”
Traders also kept a close eye on the latest Fedspeak.
US central bankers said the next phase in their campaign to curb inflation will be to debate how high to raise rates and when to slow the pace of increases. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and his San Francisco counterpart Mary  Daly made clear they expect the discussion to be on the table at the November gathering while stressing the need to keep tightening.
Equity funds are still seeing inflows, with “final capitulation” not yet here, said Bank of America Corp. strategists. Global stock funds had inflows of $9.2 billion in the week through Oct. 19, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data.
“The equity market is trying to form a bottom to get to the last leg of the bear market,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. “It feels like a two-way market right now. We have a tug of war going on between the skeptics and those who think it is time to own equities.”
He noted that the Fed is not done raising rates and valuations are still not as low as he would expect to see at the bottom of a bear market.
“We are just not there yet,” Donabedian added.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $0.9862
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.1301
* The Japanese yen rose 1.7% to 147.66 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $19,201.33
* Ether rose 1.7% to $1,304.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 4.05%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $85.17 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1.4% to $1,660.30 an ounce

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Emily Graffeo.
Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent.
As ever,

Isabel

Live daringly, boldly, fearlessly. Taste the relish to be found in competition – in having put forth the best within you. 

                                                                                                 – Henry J Kaiser, 1882-1967

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
October 20, 1973: The Sydney Opera House is opened by Elizabeth II after 14 years of construction.

October 20, 1992: The host Toronto Blue Jays beat the Atlanta Braves 3-2 in the first World Series game played outside the United States.  Go to article »

These are the most popular Halloween costumes this year.  Spider-Man snagged one of the top spots on the list. Check out which other costumes are super popular this year, according to Google’s rankings.

Latte art impresses actress Tilda Swinton.  Swinton was smitten after an artist carefully painted her face in a latte. Watch the video here.

James Webb Space Telescope captures iconic ‘Pillars of Creation’.  Check out this image of newly formed stars and interstellar dust about 6,500 light-years from Earth.

Motorcycles may soon get safer lighting.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Baker Lake is surrounded by autumn colours in Quebec
Photograph: Sébastien St-Jean/AFP/Getty Images

A duckling walks across a turtle-covered log at the Juanita wetlands, Washington, US
Photograph: Ryan Sims/Comedywildlifephoto.com

The cast of Cirque du Soleil performs Corteo at Utilita Arena
Photograph: Katja Ogrin/Redferns
Market Closes for October 20, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30333.59	-90.22
		-0.30%
S&P 500	3665.76	-29.40
		-0.80%
NASDAQ	10614.84	-65.67
		-0.61%
TSX	18583.29	-91.11
		-0.49%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27006.96	-250.42
		-0.92%
HANG SENG	16280.22	-231.06
		-1.40%
SENSEX	59202.90	+95.71
		+0.16%
FTSE 100*	6943.91	+18.92
		+0.27%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.666		3.545
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.666		3.537
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.2367		4.1356
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.2289		4.1270

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7264	0.7265
US $	1.3766	1.3765
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3471	0.7423
US  $	0.9787	1.0218

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1631.70	1653.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.98	85.55

Market Commentary:
🌄 On this day in 1803, the U.S. Senate ratified the Louisiana Purchase Treaty, under which the U.S. paid France less than 3 cents an acre for 828,000 square miles of territory stretching from the Mississippi River to the Rockies and from the Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian border. In the stroke of a pen, the United States nearly doubled in size. The U.S. financed the deal by borrowing $11.25 million in 6% bonds from European investors.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 95.11 to 18,579.29 in Toronto.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.8%.
Mullen Group Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 9.1%.
Today, 135 of 236 shares fell, while 97 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 12%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This month, the index rose 0.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.4%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Sept. 9
* The index declined 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 16.4% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 4.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 11.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.98t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 23.50% compared with 23.68% in the previous session and the average of 19.93% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -68.7225| -1.2| 3/25
Industrials | -53.5306| -2.2| 4/23
Utilities | -18.3472| -2.1| 0/16
Consumer Discretionary | -8.3319| -1.2| 2/12
Communication Services | -7.4971| -0.8| 0/7
Consumer Staples | -2.0022| -0.3| 3/8
Health Care | -0.1878| -0.2| 4/3
Real Estate | 3.6024| 0.8| 17/5
Materials | 16.2720| 0.8| 37/14
Information Technology | 17.6690| 1.8| 6/8
Energy | 25.9687| 0.7| 21/14
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | -18.6600| -2.8| 4.1| -2.7
Canadian Pacific | -16.6400| -2.7| 26.2| 4.4
RBC | -14.8800| -1.3| 40.5| -9.3
Cenovus Energy | 7.2750| 3.1| 3.4| 62.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 14.7700| 2.5| -26.2| 49.3
Shopify | 15.5200| 4.9| 8.4| -76.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — It was another down day for stocks, with Treasury yields climbing amid hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and swaps pricing in a 5% peak policy rate in 2023.
The pound wavered after Liz Truss resigned as UK prime minister.
The wariness around economic challenges has been so pronounced that it doesn’t take much to see the S&P 500 dropping at least 1% after posting a rally of the same magnitude earlier in the day.
It happened again Thursday, with the gauge seeing intraday swings of that size in both directions for the 16^th time in 2022 — the most for any year since the financial crisis.
Volatility is showing no signs of abating ahead of Friday’s $2 trillion options expiration and another raft of corporate earnings.
In late trading, Snap Inc. plummeted after reporting its slowest quarterly sales growth ever, saying that a decline in advertising spending on the platform continues to drag on results.
A tech-led advance in equities quickly fizzled out Thursday after Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker said policymakers are likely to raise rates to “well above” 4% this year and hold them at restrictive levels, while leaving the door open to doing more if needed.
The current benchmark sits between 3% and 3.25%.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook also spoke, noting that rates will need to keep rising to get inflation under control.
“Stocks are not out of the woods yet,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com. “Fears over further tightening of central bank policy amid an environment of high-inflation and low-growth means investors will avoid buying stocks aggressively. Even at these relatively-inexpensive levels.”
Traders also scoured a mixed bag of quarterly results, with Tesla Inc.’s sales disappointing and International Business Machines Corp. topping forecasts.
Several market observers said the bar has been lowered quite a bit ahead of the earnings season, boosting the odds of upside surprises.
It’s also worth noting that there’s been no shortage of warning signals about the economy from the corporate side.
Alcoa Corp. joined metals higher, but its quarterly loss indicated a worsening environment for a company that recently said it was being squeezed by higher costs and falling aluminum prices.
And that’s a dependable barometer of the health of sectors including construction, aerospace and consumer packaging.
Another worrisome signal came from Union Pacific Corp., which sees slowing freight demand.
As traders wade through corporate results, “with an extra eye on guidance, expect volatility to remain elevated,” said Mike Loewengart at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office.
The latest batch of economic reports didn’t provide much encouragement either, with sales of previously owned US homes down for an eighth straight month — underscoring how soaring mortgage rates are punishing the housing market.
The stretch of declines is the longest since 2007, when a housing market collapse swept the economy into the Great Recession.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $0.9784
* The British pound was little changed at $1.1227
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 150.15 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $19,066.28
* Ether fell 0.8% to $1,284.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.40%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.91%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $85.98 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,631.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Peyton Forte and Matt Turner.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Do we not realize that self-respect comes with self-reliance? –Abdul Kalam, 1931-2015.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
October 19, 1953: Dystopian novel “Fahrenheit 451” by Ray Bradbury is published in the US.  Fahrenheit 451  presented an  American society where books have been outlawed and “firemen” burn any that are found.  The novel’s subject matter led to its censorship in apartheid south Africa and various schools in the US.

On Oct. 19, 1987, the stock market crashed as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 508 points, or 22.6 percent in value – its second biggest percentage drop.  Go to article »

People will still pay up for chocolate.

New photos of the Pillars of Creation just dropped.

Exact burial spot of St. Nicholas, inspiration for Santa Claus, discovered in Turkish church:  Archaeologists in southern Turkey have just uncovered the original burial place of Father Christmas himself, formally known as St. Nicholas, but whose modern nicknames of Santa Claus, Saint Nick and Kris Kringle are known by children the world over.  While researchers already knew that the saint’s body was buried in the fourth century A.D. church in Turkey’s Antalya province, the holy man’s remains were stolen around 700 years after he died, so the specific spot where he was originally interred was a mystery.  Full Story: Live Science (10/19)

Energy jet traveling 7 times the speed of light appears to break the laws of physics:  Astronomers have detected a gargantuan blast of energy from space that appears to be doing the impossible: Traveling seven times faster than the speed of light.  This is, of course, an optical illusion — a rare and mind-boggling phenomenon called superluminal motion, which occurs when particles come very close to moving at the speed of light. In this case, scientists detected a jet of energy blasting out of a stellar collision site at a staggering 99.97% of the speed of light — about 670 million mph (1.07 billion km/h), according to a study published Oct. 12 in the journal Nature.
Full Story: Live Science (10/19)

Girl Scouts of America receive largest ever donation from single donor.  MacKenzie Scott, the ex-wife of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, has donated more than $80 million to the Girl Scouts of America.

After a nightmare year of losing subscribers, Netflix is back to growing.  Wildly popular shows like “Stranger Things” and “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” helped Netflix get back on track — in a big way.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Gardener Dan Bull works from a cherrypicker to trim a section of 14-metre-high yew hedge at the National Trust’s Powis Castle. The famous tumps are more than 300 years old and it takes one gardener 10 weeks each autumn to clip them
Photograph: Jacob King/PA

Baby sea turtles walk towards the waters of the Pacific Ocean after being released at sunset
Photograph: Alex Pena/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

A misty morning over fields near King’s Lynn
Photograph: Paul Marriott/REX/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 19, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30423.81	-99.99
		-0.33%
S&P 500	3695.16	-24.82
		-0.67%
NASDAQ	10680.51	-91.89
		-0.85%
TSX	18674.40	-123.78
		-0.66%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27257.38	+101.24
		+0.37%
HANG SENG	16511.28	-403.30
		-2.38%
SENSEX	59107.19	+146.59
		+0.25%
FTSE 100*	6924.99	-11.75
		-0.17%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.545		3.348
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.537		3.360
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.1356		3.9963
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.1270		4.0132

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7265	0.7280
US $	1.3765	1.3736
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3455	0.7432
US  $	0.9774	1.0231

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1653.00	1664.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.55	82.82

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1987, Wall Street took its worst plunge of the modern era, as the Dow lost 22.6%, on what became known as “Black Monday.” Traders on Wall Street’s equity desks watched the ticker in shocked, dead silence as it plunged faster and farther than anyone alive had ever seen. By day’s end, more than 500 million shares had changed hands and traumatized analysts were predicting a severe recession.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.7% at 18,674.40 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 1%.
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.8%.
Parkland Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.1%.
Today, 187 of 236 shares fell, while 48 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 12%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* The index declined 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 15.9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 4.5% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.6% in the past 5 days and fell 4.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 11.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 23.68% compared with 23.76% in the previous session and the average of 19.56% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -78.7332| -1.3| 1/28
Materials | -28.8363| -1.3| 6/45
Utilities | -16.5640| -1.8| 0/16
Information Technology | -15.6238| -1.6| 0/13
Real Estate | -13.4255| -2.8| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -9.0011| -1.2| 0/11
Industrials | -5.9837| -0.2| 5/22
Consumer Discretionary | -5.8114| -0.9| 3/11
Communication Services | -4.4853| -0.5| 2/5
Health Care | -3.7149| -4.6| 0/7
Energy | 58.3981| 1.7| 31/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Asset Management | -15.0400| -2.8| -40.5| -30.1
Bank of Nova Scotia| -13.5500| -2.5| -9.9| -27.5
TD Bank | -12.0600| -1.1| -30.6| -11.6
Suncor Energy | 7.0310| 1.7| -40.1| 37.4
Cenovus Energy | 9.0930| 4.1| -27.2| 57.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 23.4400| 4.1| -49.1| 45.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stock traders balked at any rebound attempt on Wednesday, with Treasury yields creeping back to multiyear highs and mounting concern that a hawkish Federal Reserve will raise the odds of a hard landing.
The day that marked the 35th anniversary of the equity crash saw the market halting a back-to-back rally, making any calls for a bottom look elusive.
Not even bright earnings spots like Netflix Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. were able to enthuse investors about more gains in the S&P 500.
A late day rout in Tesla Inc. on disappointing sales could further weigh on sentiment.
“Earnings are not allowing us to see that capitulation and resetting of 2023 earnings expectations yet,” Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett told Bloomberg Television. “It’s not yet a clearing event that sets up for a durable, viable bottom in this market.”
To Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research, a more sustainable advance would require a backdrop of stabilizing yields – which was the setup for the two-month surge in the US equity benchmark that started in mid-June.
That seems like a “tall order” given that Fed policy remains tight and bond rates are stuck at such high levels, he noted.
Treasuries saw a renewed wave of selling, spurred by firmer global inflation readings, corporate deal hedging flows and a poorly received US 20-year bond auction.
The two-year yield jumped to the highest since 2007 as traders pushed expectations for the peak policy rate closer to 5% — from a current range between 3% and 3.25%.
Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said it’s good news that markets are pricing in anticipated hikes by policymakers, making it important that officials “follow through” and implement those increases to curb high inflation.
In another sign of economic jitters, a Bank of America Corp. survey showed 60% of chief investment officers want companies to use cash reserves to improve their balance sheets – – rather than opting for capital expenditures or stock buybacks.
The economy will probably mostly slow in 2023, so companies have time to use “still strong cash flow generation this year to shore up their balance sheets before a potential recession hits next year,” wrote credit strategist Yuri Seliger.
As the third-quarter earnings season gets underway, a nightmare scenario for stock pickers is unfolding.
The S&P 500’s three-month realized correlation — a gauge of how closely the top weighted stocks in the benchmark move relative to each other — is at its highest level since July 2020.
As correlations rise, it becomes increasingly difficult for fund managers to outperform the broader market.
That means more turbulence may lie ahead since the S&P 500’s drop over the past six months looks tame when compared with the type of declines typically seen in the last half-year of major equity downturns, according
to Bespoke Investment Group.
“Oversold conditions coinciding with key support has recently underpinned a recovery in stocks, leaving many investors wondering if this will be another trick or a potential treat?” said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper
Sandler. “From our technical perspective, risk for another trick appears high as there is insufficient evidence to confirm the equity market has fully capitulated. This does not eliminate the probability of a sizable relief rally developing into year-end.”
Key events this week:
* US existing home sales, initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index, Thursday
* Euro area consumer confidence, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $0.9773
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.1223
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 149.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $19,226.67
* Ether fell 1.4% to $1,296.2
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 12 basis points to 4.13%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.38%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 3.88%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.5% to $85.69 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,634.30 an ounce.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay the most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promises only; pain we obey. -Marcel Proust, 1871-1922.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
October 18, 1892: The first long distance telephone line between Chicago and New York was opened.  Go to article ».
October 18, 1922:The British Broadcasting Company (later Corporation) is founded by a consortium, to establish a nationwide network of radio transmitters to provide a national broadcasting service.

Sri Lankan author Shehan Karunatilaka wins 2022 Booker Prize.  Looking for a good read? This novel just received one of the most prestigious literary awards.

Best Chinese food: 32 must-try dishes.  This photo gallery offers a sampling of China’s many different regions.

Bizarre near-Earth asteroid is spinning faster every year – and scientists aren’t sure why:  A potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid is spinning faster and faster every year, and researchers aren’t sure why.   The space rock, known as 3200 Phaethon, is around 3.4 miles (5.4 kilometers) wide, and its orbit through the solar system takes it closer to the sun than any other named asteroid, reaching a minimum distance of around 13 million miles (20.9 million km) from the sun — less than half the distance from Mercury to the sun.  Full Story: Live Science (10/18)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Horses on the gallops at Sam Drinkwater’s Granary Stables in Worcestershire
Photograph: David Davies/PA

Julia Roberts and George Clooney attend the premiere of the movie Ticket to Paradise at Regency Village Theatre
Photograph: Caroline Brehman/EPA

Visitors embrace by The Matter of Time by US artist Richard Serra at the Guggenheim Museum
Photograph: Ander Gillenea/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 18, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30523.80	+337.98
		+1.12%
S&P 500	3720.54	+42.59
		+1.16%
NASDAQ	10772.40	+96.60
		+0.90%
TSX	18771.27	+150.25
		+0.81%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27156.14	+380.35
		+1.42%
HANG SENG	16914.58	+301.68
		+1.82%
SENSEX	58960.60	+549.62
		+0.94%
FTSE 100*	6936.74	+16.50
		+0.24%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.348		3.422
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.360		3.404
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.9963		4.0104
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.0132		4.0183

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7280	0.7290
US $	1.3736	1.3718
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3542	0.7384
US  $	0.9858	1.0144

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.75	1649.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.82	85.46

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1931, President Herbert Hoover announced the creation of an unemployment-relief commission “to cast sunshine into the habitations of despair.” He also used the word “depression” to describe the U.S. economy, adding that its problems had been “deepened by events from abroad which are beyond the control of either our citizens or our government.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1%, or 177.16 to 18,798.18 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Oct. 6.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%.
Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 18.4%.
Today, 158 of 236 shares rose, while 76 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 11%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* The index declined 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 15.4% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 5.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3.2% in the past 5 days and fell 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 on a trailing basis and 11.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 23.76% compared with 23.70% in the previous session and the average of 19.36% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 56.1564| 1.0| 24/5
Industrials | 44.2889| 1.8| 21/6
Information Technology | 17.0893| 1.7| 13/1
Materials | 13.7962| 0.6| 27/24
Energy | 12.4709| 0.4| 19/19
Utilities | 12.2397| 1.4| 14/2
Communication Services | 10.5310| 1.2| 7/0
Consumer Discretionary | 8.4286| 1.3| 11/3
Consumer Staples | 1.1714| 0.2| 9/2
Real Estate | 1.0001| 0.2| 9/11
Health Care | -0.0121| 0.0| 4/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 16.1700| 1.5| -21.9| -10.6
Canadian National | 14.5000| 2.2| 7.0| 0.4
Canadian Pacific | 13.8900| 2.3| -10.0| 7.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -2.5530| -0.5| -63.1| 39.8
Suncor Energy | -3.5150| -0.9| -38.5| 35.1
First Quantum Minerals | -4.1660| -4.5| 19.2| -24.4
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — Stocks continued their rebound from nearly oversold levels as traders took solace from a solid start to the corporate-earnings season even as central banks remain on  hawkish footing.
After almost giving up all of its gains, the S&P 500 notched back-to-back gains to start the week.
Futures extended the advance in late trading after Neflix Inc. delivered a surge in subscribers.
Its shares jumped more than 13% as of 4:40 p.m. in New York.
The biggest ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 advanced more than 1%.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. climbed 7% after reporting its results.
During the cash session, the S&P 500 rose 1.1% and is now up 3.8% in two days.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. climbed on solid results.
Apple Inc. rebounded after briefly turning negative on a report it was cutting production of its iPhone 14 Plus.
“Earnings season offers investors the opportunity to focus more on the actual earnings power of corporate America, and less on the machinations of the backward-looking economic data stream,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley. “A better-than-feared earnings season may well be the catalyst the market needs to see a break in the steady grind lower.”
Upbeat company results, cheaper valuations and UK policy reversals have helped buoy risk sentiment.
The sentiment on stocks and global growth among fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp. shows full capitulation, opening the way for equities to bottom in the first half of 2023.
Still, with headwinds from inflation, risks to the economy and hawkish central banks continuing to confront investors, there’s debate over how durable the gains will prove.
Some regional Fed directors last month favored raising a key interest rate by a smaller or larger amount than the 75 basis points that policymakers ultimately decided was needed to curb persistent inflation, according to minutes of discount-rate meetings released Tuesday.
“There’s still a strong feeling of a bear-market rally about trading over the course of the last week,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Europe Ltd. “The economic landscape looks treacherous and we don’t even know if we’re at peak inflation and interest rate pricing yet. Those are substantial headwinds that will make any stock market rebound extremely challenging.”
Key events this week:
* Euro area CPI, Wednesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, Fed Beige Book, Wednesday
* Fed’s Neel Kashkari, Charles Evans, James Bullard speak, Wednesday
* US existing home sales, initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index, Thursday
* Euro area consumer confidence, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $0.9856
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.1323
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 149.23 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $19,227.77
* Ether fell 2.2% to $1,300.61
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.99%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.28%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.95%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.6% to $83.24 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,656.50 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Every human heartbeat, he’d said many times, is a  universe of possibilities.  And it seemed to me that I finally understood exactly what he’d meant.  He’d been trying to tell me that every human will has the power to transform its fate.  I’d always thought that fate was something unchangeable: fixed for every one of us at birth, and as constant as the circuit of the stars.  But I suddenly realized that life is stranger and more beautiful than that.  The truth is that, no matter what kind of game you find yourself in, no matter how good or bad the luck, you can change your life completely with a single thought or a single act of love. -Gregory David Roberts, b. 1952., Shantaram.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
On Oct. 17, 1931, mobster Al Capone was convicted of income tax evasion and sentenced to 11 years in prison. He was released in 1939.  Go to article »

25 creepy-cute dishes for a Halloween potluck.  Bone appétit! Who can resist goblin up these festive appetizers and snacks?

1,600-year-old mosaic of Hercules and Neptune’s 40 mistresses unearthed in war-torn Syria: Archaeologists in war-torn Syria have unearthed a stunning mosaic from the Roman era that features events from the Trojan War, the chiseled muscles of the Roman demigod Hercules and the powerful ancient Roman god Neptune alongside 40 of his mistresses.   The General Directorate of Antiquities and Museums, a Syrian government agency, discovered the 65.5-foot-long by 20-foot-wide (20 by 6 meters) mural in Rastan, a town in central Syria near Homs, a key battleground during the Syrian revolution, agency representatives announced on Wednesday (Oct. 12), according to the Associated Press (AP).  Full Story: Live Science (10/17)

Bizarre blue blobs hover in Earth’s atmosphere in stunning astronaut photo. But what are they?   An astronaut onboard the International Space Station (ISS) has snapped a peculiar image of Earth from space that contains two bizarre blue blobs of light glimmering in our planet’s atmosphere.   The dazzling pair may look otherworldly. But in reality, they are the result of two unrelated natural phenomena that just happened to occur at the same time.  Full Story: Live Science (10/17)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A person wears a horror costume. After a three-year absence, zombies and horrible creatures once again marched through the streets of Santiago for Zombie Walk Chile, a huge Halloween costume party, that attracts large numbers of people
Photograph: Claudio Abarca Sandoval/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock

People watch the world’s strongest maelstrom from a boat. The whirlpool phenomenon is governed by the rise and fall of currents. Every six hours almost 400m cubic metres of water have to pass through a 3 km-long and 150-metre wide strait between Saltenfjord and Skjerstadfjord
Photograph: Sergei Gapon/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

People visit Iguazu falls at the Iguazu national park
Photograph: Reuters
Market Closes for October 17, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30185.82	+550.99
		+1.86%
S&P 500	3677.95	+94.88
		+2.65%
NASDAQ	10675.80	+354.41
		+3.43%
TSX	18621.02	+294.67
		+1.61%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26775.79	-314.97
		-1.16%
HANG SENG	16612.90	+25.21
		+0.15%
SENSEX	58410.98	+491.01
		+0.85%
FTSE 100*	6920.24	+61.45
		+0.90%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.422		3.488
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.404		3.416
U.S.    10 Year Bond		4.0104		4.0204
U.S. 30 Year Bond		4.0183		3.9936

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7290	0.7196
US $	1.3718	1.3896
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3500	0.7407
US  $	0.9842	1.0161

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1649.30	1648.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.46	85.61

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1919, Radio Corporation of America was formed by General Electric lawyer Owen D. Young to control the “wireless” patents of GE, AT&T and Westinghouse and to outflank the companies founded by Guglielmo Marconi. By 1929 it was the greatest growth stock in America, peaking at just under $575 a share; but by the end of that year it had lost 77% of its value.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.6% at 18,621.02 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Oct. 6 after the previous session’s decrease of 1.5%.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 10.5%.
Today, 202 of 236 shares rose, while 33 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 13 times. The next day, it advanced eight times for an average 0.9% and declined five times for an average 1.1%
* This year, the index fell 12%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* The index declined 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 16.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 4.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 3.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 11.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.93t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 23.70% compared with 23.23% in the previous session and the average of 19.14% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 87.6484| 1.5| 28/1
Industrials | 57.0447| 2.4| 26/1
Information Technology | 31.7515| 3.3| 14/0
Energy | 30.0977| 0.9| 24/13
Materials | 24.8002| 1.2| 36/15
Utilities | 22.0647| 2.6| 16/0
Communication Services | 13.0963| 1.5| 7/0
Consumer Discretionary | 10.3604| 1.6| 13/1
Real Estate | 10.2758| 2.2| 22/0
Consumer Staples | 4.1152| 0.5| 9/2
Health Care | 3.4328| 4.5| 7/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | 17.1800| 2.7| 32.7| -1.8
RBC | 15.7500| 1.3| 64.1| -7.9
Shopify | 15.5200| 5.3| -15.8| -78.1
First Quantum Minerals | -1.3120| -1.4| -10.3| -20.8
ARC Resources | -1.5560| -1.9| -29.4| 53.5
Tourmaline Oil | -2.4140| -1.5| 98.1| 99.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw big gains Monday, with the S&P 500 closing above a key technical level and another giant bank coming out with solid results.
A reversal of the UK’s vast fiscal stimulus also bolstered trader sentiment.
The breadth of the rally was so strong that at one point over 99% of the companies in the US equity benchmark were up, with the gauge pushing away from its 200-week moving average.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notched its biggest gain since July.
A rout in the S&P 500 has left the index testing a “serious floor of support”, which could lead to a technical recovery, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson wrote.
The strategist, who’s one of Wall Street’s most-prominent bearish voices, said he “would not rule out” the measure rising to about 4,150.
That’s 13% above current levels.
“Stocks may be ripe for a near-term bounce,” wrote BCA Research strategists led by Roukaya Ibrahim. “While economic conditions have not changed — and therefore do not warrant a shift in the cyclical outlook — technical conditions are pointing to a potential rebound.”
The arrival of earnings has historically served as a remedy for ailing equities, lifting the S&P 500 roughly 76% of the time since 2013.
Cut-to-bone profit estimates — which have been slashed down by more than two-thirds in four months, the most since the first quarter of 2020 — are making the hurdles easy to clear.
To Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL Financial, while expectations are indeed very low for the current earnings season, forecasts for 2023 still remain elevated.
“The tough part is figuring out how far estimates need to fall and how much of a headwind that haircut will be for stocks as they try to dig their way out of this bear market,” he added.
Markets have historically bottomed out when investors began to contemplate materially looser policy over the next six to 12 months, when a trough for economic activity was in sight or when valuations reflected a “bear case” scenario, according to Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.  “We do not believe these conditions have been fulfilled,” Haefele added. “Despite the increased risks to growth and the rise in volatility, equity markets have neither become cheaper relative to bonds, nor yet priced in a material slowdown in growth and earnings.”
Some 86% of respondents in the latest MLIV Pulse survey expect US markets to recover first, with investors slightly favoring stocks over bonds.
The result suggests the longstanding premium for equities will remain in place — and as the Federal Reserve’s peak hawkishness becomes apparent, traders will be prepared to return to Treasury markets in droves.
The latest US recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher probability of such an event across all time frames — with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%.
That’s up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
Data Monday showed a measure of New York state manufacturing contracted for a third month in October, and a larger share of factories were more downbeat about business conditions in early 2023.
The prices-paid measure rose for the first time since June.
“This isn’t a Pollyanna moment,” said Robert Teeter, a managing director of Silvercrest Asset Management. “Inflation clearly remains a problem until proven otherwise, and disappointing earnings, particularly from consumer facing-companies, could trigger another rough stretch, with recession fears at the fore.”
Key events this week:
* US industrial production, NAHB housing market index, Tuesday
* Fed’s Neel Kashkari speaks, Tuesday
* Euro area CPI, Wednesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, Fed Beige Book, Wednesday
* Fed’s Neel Kashkari, Charles Evans, James Bullard speak, Wednesday
* US existing home sales, initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index, Thursday
* Euro area consumer confidence, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9%
* The MSCI World index rose 2.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 1.2% to $0.9837
* The British pound rose 1.6% to $1.1352
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 149.04 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1% to $19,527.35
* Ether rose 1.1% to $1,325.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.27%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 36 basis points to 3.98%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $85.40 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,653.70 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Michael Msika and Sagarika Jaisinghani.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Nothing in any life, no matter how well or poorly lived, is wiser than failure or clearer than sorrow. -Gregory David Roberts, b. 1952.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com