Month: September 2022

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

King Solomon’s mines were abandoned and became a desert wasteland. Copper mines in Israel’s Negev Desert — ancient sites that may have inspired the legend of King Solomon’s mines of gold — were abandoned 3,000 years ago, when people there used up all the plants to make charcoal for smelting, a new study finds. The researchers studied fragments of charcoal from ancient furnaces in the Timna Valley near Eilat, where a prosperous copper industry thrived from the 11th to ninth centuries B.C. Full Story: Live Science
The mighty Tyrannosaurus rex once stalked western North America, but now, in a first, the fossil remains of the dinosaur king are hitting an auction block in Asia, where the prehistoric beast’s bones might sell for as much as $25 million, according to Christie’s Hong Kong.  The 3,000-pound (1,400 kilogram) specimen — nicknamed Shen for now; whoever buys it gets exclusive naming rights — was uncovered in Montana’s Hell Creek Formation, a region renowned for its fossils dating to the late Cretaceous period, which ended about 66 million years ago. Shen measures about 40 feet (12.2 meters) long, 15 feet (4.6 m) tall and 6.8 feet (2.1 m) wide, according to Christie’s. Full Story: Live Science
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wild horses run on the grasslands of the remote Sable Island national park reserve, Nova Scotia, Canada
Photograph: Sarah Medill/Parks Canada/Reuters

An aerial view of the men’s cycling elite road race at the UCI Road World Championships 2022
Photograph: Rex/Shutterstock
A dragon dance is performed during the Vegetarian festival celebration at Joe Sue Kung Shrine Chinese temple. During the Vegetarian festival, which runs from 25 September to 4 October, worshippers refrain from eating animal products to coincide with the celebration of the nine Chinese emperor gods
Photograph: Anusak Laowilas/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for September 30, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	28725.51	-500.10
		-1.71%
S&P 500	3585.62	-54.85
		-1.51%
NASDAQ	10575.62	-161.89
		-1.51%
TSX	18444.22	+2.38
		+0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	25937.21	-484.84
		-1.84%
HANG SENG	17222.83	+56.96
		+0.33%
SENSEX	57426.92	+1016.96
		+1.80%
FTSE 100*	6893.81	+12.22
		+0.18%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.173		3.173
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.095		3.095
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.8206		3.7856
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.7711		3.7238

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7238	0.7314
US $	1.3816	1.3672
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3543	0.7384
US  $	0.9801	1.0203

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1654.80	1652.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.49	81.23

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1981, the U.S. government issued new 20-year Treasury bonds at a 15.78% yield, an all-time record-high interest rate for any U.S. government issue. Analysts said they expected that yields would have to go higher “to attract stronger demand.” Yields promptly began going down, and kept going down for the next twelve years.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 18,444.22 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.1%.
Barrick Gold Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%. Osisko Mining Inc. had the largest increase, rising 14.9%.
Today, 140 of 236 shares rose, while 94 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 13%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 2.2%
* This month, the index fell 4.6%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index declined 8.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 1.5% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 on a trailing basis and 11.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.95t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 17.77% compared with 17.80% in the previous session and the average of 15.05% over the past month

================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 47.9786| 2.2| 45/5
Information Technology | 3.0998| 0.3| 7/7
Utilities | 1.7266| 0.2| 9/7
Health Care | 0.1543| 0.2| 4/3
Real Estate | 0.0000| -2.2| 22/0
Financials | -0.6775| 0.0| 17/12
Consumer Discretionary | -4.4369| -0.7| 5/9
Communication Services | -7.7525| -0.9| 3/4
Consumer Staples | -9.8238| -1.3| 1/10
Energy | -15.4466| -0.5| 19/18
Industrials | -23.5815| -1.0| 8/19
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Barrick Gold | 8.9000| 3.5| -19.3| -11.0
Brookfield Asset Management | 7.4750| 1.4| -7.6| -26.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | 5.0580| 2.8| -15.3| -13.1
Canadian National | -6.0670| -1.0| 28.4| -4.0
Enbridge | -6.4140| -0.9| -18.0| 3.7
Canadian Pacific | -11.2100| -1.9| 19.9| 1.4
US
By Peyton Forte, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — US stocks suffered their worst monthly rout since March 2020 after markets were repeatedly pummeled by the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates until inflation is under control.
The S&P 500 closed a volatile session lower. The index posted its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2009. US Treasuries dropped Friday after a late selloff into the month-end, with the benchmark 10-year yield around 3.82%.
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard briefly assuaged concerns on Friday after she acknowledged the need to monitor the impact rising borrowing costs could have on global-market stability.
But markets continued to be on the edge as investors contended with continued strength in personal consumption expenditure, one of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges.
Risk assets have been in a tailspin since the central bank delivered a third jumbo hike last week and officials repeatedly warned of more pain to come. UK markets added to the stress this week, after the government unveiled sweeping tax cuts that threatened to exacerbate inflationary pressures, and the Bank of England attempted to manage the mayhem that ensued.
Investors are now awaiting jobs data next week for further clues about the Fed’s rate-hike trajectory. Upcoming inflation and GDP readings will also provide details on whether price pressures are easing meaningfully. All eyes will be on the earnings season, which starts next month, for insight into how companies are managing through headwinds that include a strong dollar, rising expenses and slowing demand. Fears of a global recession are still mounting as the threat of higher rates saps growth.
“Investors are eager and nervous to realize how dovish or hawkish global central banks become as tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates weaken economic performance and threaten financial stability,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.
Geopolitical tensions also continued to simmer as Vladimir Putin vowed his annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine is irreversible and President Joe Biden declared that a massive leak from the Nord Stream gas pipeline system in the Baltic Sea was an intentional act.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 4:07 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $0.9804
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.1156
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $19,470.55
* Ether rose 0.1% to $1,339.75
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.82%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.09%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $79.63 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed

–With assistance from Farah Elbahrawy

Have a great weekend.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel 

I am different, not less. – Temple Grandin, 1947—

Isabel Luo
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Thursday.

Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Amid widespread flooding and power outages, people are leaving Florida in droves as Ian pummels the state. But some brave individuals are intentionally traveling into the ferocious storm to gather data for research and forecasting. Watch these professional hurricane hunters — famous for enduring the world’s most dangerous weather — fly a plane directly in the turbulent eye of the storm.

On this day, 1978 Pope John Paul I was found dead in his Vatican apartment a little more than one month after becoming head of the Roman Catholic Church. Go to article »

Stunning discovery of 1,200-year-old shipwreck contradicts history books. An ancient shipwreck was found off the coast of Israel with artifacts from all over the Mediterranean, contradicting a major archaeological theory.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

An installation by the Mexican artist Betsabeé Romero at Kew Gardens’ Temperate House, the world’s largest Victorian glasshouse, for Kew’s Mexico festival
Photograph: Zac Goodwin/PA

A polar bear after it tried to catch a beluga whale, seen in the background, off the coast of Hudson Bay
Photograph: Olivier Morin/AFP/Getty Images
Vanessa Jones, an assistant curator at the Leeds Discovery Centre, surrounded by some of the more than 230 historic umbrellas and parasols that are being saved in a conservation project
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
Market Closes for September 29, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29225.61	-458.13
		-1.54%
S&P 500	3640.47	-78.57
		-2.11%
NASDAQ	10737.51	-314.13
		-2.84%
TSX	18441.84	-207.08
		-1.11%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26422.05	+248.07
		+0.95%
HANG SENG	17165.87	-85.01
		-0.49%
SENSEX	56409.96	-188.32
		-0.33%
FTSE 100*	6881.59	-123.80
		-1.77%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.173		3.081
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.095		2.970
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.7856		3.7312
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.7238		3.6990

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7345
US $	1.3672	1.3614
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3442	0.7439
US  $	0.9832	1.0171

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1652.15	1634.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.23	82.15

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1952, the New York Stock Exchange changed its trading hours: The market’s closing time was shifted to 3:30 p.m. Monday through Friday, instead of 3 p.m., and it would no longer be open at all on Saturday.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.1% at 18,441.84 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s increase of 1.9%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 175 of 236 shares fell, while 61 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 8.0%. Linamar Corp. had the largest drop, falling 11.6%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 13%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 2.2%
* This month, the index fell 4.6%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index declined 8.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 1.5% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3% in the past 5 days and fell 7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 on a trailing basis and 11.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.98t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 17.80% compared with 17.75% in the previous session and the average of 14.82% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -62.7147| -1.1| 1/28
Information Technology | -33.6541| -3.4| 1/13
Utilities | -24.9547| -2.6| 0/16
Industrials | -23.0690| -0.9| 2/25
Communication Services | -20.6023| -2.2| 3/4
Energy | -19.5342| -0.6| 16/22
Consumer Discretionary | -14.0761| -2.1| 1/13
Real Estate | -10.0572| -2.2| 0/22
Health Care | -4.2062| -5.1| 0/7
Consumer Staples | -0.3086| 0.0| 2/9
Materials | 6.0992| 0.3| 35/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -25.9800| -8.0| 13.9| -78.9
Brookfield Asset Management | -18.8800| -3.3| 45.7| -27.0
BCE | -12.5600| -3.3| -2.1| -10.8
Barrick Gold | 3.7800| 1.5| -30.2| -14.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | 3.9590| 2.3| -42.3| -15.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 4.6430| 0.9| -55.7| 22.5
US
By Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks plunged to the lowest since November 2020 as another group of Federal Reserve officials struck a hawkish tone, and turmoil in Europe continued to fray investor nerves.
The S&P 500 fell as much as 2.9% during Thursday’s session but trimmed losses as markets closed. Its decline wipes out an ill-timed attempt Wednesday to rebound from a six-day slide.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 4% during the session after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said investors have now understood that they can’t escape additional rate hikes in coming months. The index was dragged down by Apple Inc., which fell as much as 6.1% after a rare analyst downgrade from Bank of America warning of weaker consumer demand for its popular devices.
Signs of stress emerged in the interest-rate swaps market and a leveraged-buyout deal was shelved. US Treasuries pared earlier losses, with the 10-year yield hovering around 3.76%.
In Europe, UK gilt yields rose after Prime Minister Liz Truss’s defense of unfunded tax cuts that sent markets into turmoil failed to persuade investors. German inflation topped 10% and the country agreed to energy caps that could add to inflationary pressures.
Investors are grappling with threats posed by discordant moves from central banks over the past few days, with Fed officials adamant on further monetary tightening, the Bank of England unveiling a plan to support government debt and authorities in Asia trying to prop up weakening currencies.
“I was actually really surprised by the impact that the Bank of England had on the global market,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “Yet, it was short-lived, the relief rally. We sort of pushed past that quite quickly and it seems to be back to that narrative of inflation fears, higher-interest-rate fears.”
Fed officials haven’t shied away from warning that more rate-hike pain is yet to come, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoing the rhetoric that her colleagues reinforced this week. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, after US markets closed, said the central bank should curb inflation in a manner that avoids a difficult downturn.  Better-than-expected 2Q core PCE and personal consumption numbers on Thursday also paved the path for the Fed to stay aggressive. Weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest since April, showing a persistently tight labor market.
Recession concerns persisted as a gap in the government’s two primary measures of US economic activity during the first half of 2022 narrowed. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee uses this metric and other variables to make any recession call.
“The market is now coming to terms with the idea that a recession is almost a given at this point and it’s really making adjustments for that,” said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi US Wealth Management.
Separately, the European Commission announced an eighth package of sanctions that would include a price cap on Russia’s oil exports as Russia vowed to go ahead with the annexation of the parts of Ukraine that its troops currently control after UN- condemned votes, putting the Kremlin on a fresh collision course with the US and its allies.

Key events this week:
* Fed’s Mary Daly speak at an event, Thursday
* China PMI, Friday
* Euro zone CPI, unemployment, Friday
* US consumer income , University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Lael Brainard and John Williams speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $0.9801
* The British pound rose 1.7% to $1.1077
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.44 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $19,409.32
* Ether fell 1.2% to $1,334.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.76%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.18%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 13 basis points to 4.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $81.59 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed

–With assistance from Abigail Moses, Natalia Kniazhevich and Reade Pickert.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel 

A somebody was once a nobody who wanted to and did. – John Burroughs, 1837-1921

Isabel Luo
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Wednesday.

Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

The world’s first all-electric passenger aircraft has successfully taken to the sky with battery technology similar to that of an electric car or a cell phone. The zero-emission plane — named Alice — traveled at an altitude of 3,500 feet for eight minutes during its inaugural flight on Tuesday. Now, the company behind the plane is working on developing an FAA-certified aircraft.

Artificial islands surrounding British Isles were used for ancient parties, archaeologists find. Just as waterfront mansions are status symbols for today’s rich and famous, ancient artificial islands in the British Isles known as crannogs may have been used by elites to display their power and wealth through elaborate parties, a new study finds.

A crannog is “an artificial island within a lake, wetland, or estuary,” Antony Brown of UiT Arctic University of Norway and colleagues wrote in a study published online Wednesday (Sept. 28) in the journal Antiquity. Hundreds of crannogs were created in Scotland, Wales and Ireland, between 4,000 B.C. and the 16th century A.D.
Full Story: Live Science
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

SwitzerlandThe glaciologist Matthias Huss and his team at Gries glacier as a report shows three cubic kilometres of ice – three thousand billion litres of water – evaporated from Swiss glaciers in 2022 because of weather conditions
Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images

Lightning strikes in Nice, France, in August.
Photograph: Joshua James Pennell

‘Every September farmers collect their sheep from the mountains in order to separate the lambs from the ewes. They use some of the unique sheepfolds found in our area, some of which are over 200 years old. Sheep are driven into the centre of the fold. Each farm has its own cell round the outside and the sheep are moved from the centre (through holes in the walls) into each farm’s cell. The picture was taken in Snowdonia, Wales, after the sheep had been rounded up and one or two of the farmers were having a quick lunch before doing the sorting.’
Photograph: Nigel Beidas
Market Closes for September 28, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29683.74	+548.75
		+1.88%
S&P 500	3719.04	+71.75
		+1.97%
NASDAQ	11051.64	+222.14
		+2.05%
TSX	18648.92	+341.01
		+1.86%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26173.98	-397.89
		-1.50%
HANG SENG	17250.88	-609.43
		-3.41%
SENSEX	56598.28	-509.24
		-0.89%
FTSE 100*	7005.39	+20.80
		+0.30%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.081		3.320
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.970		3.179
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.7312		3.9451
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.6990		3.8254

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7345	0.7289
US $	1.3614	1.3719
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3242	0.7552
US  $	0.9726	1.0282

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1634.30	1643.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.15	78.50

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.9% at 18,648.92 in Toronto. The move was the biggest since rising 2% on May 13 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 208 of 236 shares rose, while 27 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.4%. Equinox Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 16.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain two times. The next day, it advanced after both occasions
* This year, the index fell 12%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 1.1%
* This month, the index fell 3.5%
* The index declined 7.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 16% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 2.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.8% in the past 5 days and fell 6.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 11.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.93t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 17.75% compared with 16.50% in the previous session and the average of 14.69% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 91.5140| 2.9| 38/0
Materials | 89.9598| 4.4| 47/4
Financials | 78.9026| 1.4| 28/1
Industrials | 32.8640| 1.4| 24/3
Information Technology | 29.0335| 3.0| 13/1
Consumer Discretionary | 9.5316| 1.4| 14/0
Real Estate | 6.9512| 1.5| 22/0
Communication Services | 5.2617| 0.6| 4/2
Health Care | 2.9998| 3.7| 7/0
Consumer Staples | 0.5344| 0.1| 6/5
Utilities | -6.5368| -0.7| 5/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 16.4200| 1.4| 0.3| -7.1
Suncor Energy | 15.7800| 4.5| -61.1| 22.5
Enbridge | 13.5300| 1.9| -36.0| 6.1
Sandstorm Gold | -1.2070| -10.0| 199.0| -12.6
Loblaw | -1.4100| -1.2| -11.3| 7.4
Brookfield Infrastructure | -3.7230| -2.3| 29.1| -2.9
US
By Vildana Hajric and Peyton Forte
(Bloomberg) — US stocks and Treasuries rallied on Wednesday after the Bank of England’s decision to stage a market +6 intervention boosted UK bonds and tentatively calmed markets.
The S&P 500 snapped a six-day rout. It rose the most since early last month, and for the first time since the Federal Reserve boosted rates and dialed up its hawkishness a week ago.
The index jumped more than 2% later in the session, bolstered by gains in Amazon.com Inc.’s shares after the company’s annual device event on Wednesday showed it pushing further into wellness, security and the auto industry.
The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped toward 3.72% after topping 4% earlier. The yield on 30-year UK gilts plunged more than one percentage point. Oil advanced with metals. Orange juice futures spiked as Hurricane Ian barreled ashore in Southwest Florida.
Global markets enjoyed a break from the brutal selling that has gripped them since the Fed embarked on the most aggressive path of interest-rate hikes by since the 1980s. The Bank of England soothed nerves after it said it would buy long-dated government bonds in whatever quantities were needed to end the chaos caused by the government’s plans to slash taxes.
Fed officials remained diligent in warning that more rate-hike pain is yet to come, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans reinforcing the hawkish stance their colleagues have been hammering home all week.
“All eyes are on inflation and interest rates, and this renewed hawkishness or more aggressive hawkishness from the Fed has certainly sent equity markets into a period of concern here,” said Josh Emanuel, chief investment officer of investment management at Wilshire. “From this point forward, equities are really going to take their cues from bond market. So if you see bond yields move lower, that is a good sign for equities.”
Stocks may also be rising because the markets have priced in the Fed’s hawkishness, according to Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at Westwood Holdings Group.
“It’s harder for the central bank and the speakers to say much more — short of saying that they’re going to start hiking by a hundred basis points for the next several meetings,” he said. “Maybe the market is at least now believing what the Fed is saying.”
But economists are still worried that the central bank is committing another error after being too slow to respond to inflation, since a series of jumbo hikes mean officials are not weighing the impact their actions are having on the economy.
Geopolitical tensions also continued to simmer. Natural gas prices in Europe surged after Russia said it may cut off supplies via Ukraine and the German Navy was deployed to investigate the suspected sabotage to the Nord Stream pipelines.
While the European Union proposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, the growing exodus of Russians fleeing President Vladimir Putin’s mobilization order is creating turmoil at the borders with neighboring states and stirring fears about potential instability.
Any rally in the face of these challenges “will likely be met with skepticism given the dual headwinds of rapidly slowing global growth, pressuring earnings, and increasingly tight
liquidity, pressuring valuations,” said Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at Newedge Wealth.
The dollar dropped on Wednesday. But its recent rally brought losses to other currencies, including the euro and onshore yuan, which tumbled to its weakest level since 2008. A regulatory body guided by the People’s Bank of China urged banks to protect the authority of the yuan fixing.
How much damage is a strong dollar causing? That’s the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. It’s brief and we don’t collect your name or any contact information. Please click here to share your views.

Key events this week:
* Euro zone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester, Mary Daly speak at events, Thursday
* China PMI, Friday
* Euro zone CPI, unemployment, Friday
* US consumer income , University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Lael Brainard and John Williams speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1%
* The euro rose 1.4% to $0.9731
* The British pound rose 1.4% to $1.0880
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 144.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $19,534.48
* Ether rose 0.8% to $1,335.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 23 basis points to 3.72%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 2.12%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 49 basis points to 4.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.4% to $81.96 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 2% to $1,669.60 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel 

All you need is the plan, the road map, and the courage to press on to your destination. – Earl Nightingale, 1921-1989

Isabel Luo
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.

Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Sept. 27, 1964, the Warren Commission issued a report concluding that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in assassinating President John F. Kennedy.

Halloween decorations perplex the internet in viral video. An Illinois family has the internet wondering how they created this levitating Halloween decoration inspired by the Netflix show “Stranger Things.”

Imagine the Milky Way’s 100 billion stars as a flat, tranquil pool of water. Now, picture someone dropping a stone the size of 400 million suns into that water. The tranquility is shattered. Wave after wave of energy ripples across the galaxy’s surface, jostling and bouncing its stars in a chaotic dance that takes eons to calm. Astronomers suspect that something like this may have really happened — not just once, but several times over the past several billion years.
Full Story: Live Science

A rare type of diamond may suggest that water can penetrate deeper into Earth’s interior than scientists previously thought. Though more than 70% of our planet is covered with water, there is also water in minerals more than 200 miles (322 kilometers) underground, including in the upper mantle, the semi malleable layer that the crust “floats” on top of. Scientists have long thought that as the upper mantle transitions into the hotter, denser lower mantle, minerals can hold far less water.
Full Story: Live Science
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cast members from Cirque du Soleil attend a photocall for their latest production, Kurios, at the Royal Albert Hall
Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

Scotland is home to about 80% of the puffin population of the British Isles, with colonies in places such as Shetland, Orkney, the Isle of May, Fair Isle and the Treshnish Isles. This image was captured at Hermaness national nature reserve
Credit to: The Guardian, Mon 26 Sep 2022

Spectators watch on from behind a protective barrier. The event captures the essence of early outback motor racing – rough, dusty and spectacular
Credit to: The Guardian, Tue 27 Sep 2022
Market Closes for September 27, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29134.99	-125.82
		-0.43%
S&P 500	3647.29	-7.75
		-0.21%
NASDAQ	10829.50	+26.58
		+0.25%
TSX	18307.91	-19.13
		-0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26571.87	+140.32
		+0.53%
HANG SENG	17860.31	+5.17
		+0.03%
SENSEX	57107.52	-37.70
		-0.07%
FTSE 100*	6984.59	-36.36
		-0.52%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.320		3.228
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.179		3.049
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.9451		3.9244
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.8254		3.7400

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7289	0.7282
US $	1.3719	1.3733
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3167	0.7595
US  $	0.9597	1.0420

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1643.35	1643.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.50	76.71

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1820, a train carried passengers for the first time as George Stephenson, a self-taught engineer in the coal mines of Newcastle, England, demonstrated his new steam-propelled locomotive on rails, “The Rocket.” The train hauls a huge cargo load from Brusselton to Stockton—a total of just under 21 miles—in four hours and 12 minutes, a blistering pace of 5 mph.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite is declining slightly to 18,326.42 in Toronto.
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%. Algoma Steel Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.2%.
In midday trading, 99 of 236 shares fell, while 137 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 14%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 2.8%
* This month, the index fell 5.2%
* The index declined 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 0.9% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 5.4% in the past 5 days and fell 7.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 on a trailing basis and 11.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.93t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 16.51% compared with 16.65% in the previous session and the average of 14.54% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -47.3546| -0.8| 8/21
Utilities | -11.5601| -1.2| 5/11
Industrials | -4.8420| -0.2| 13/14
Real Estate | -2.2974| -0.5| 3/19
Information Technology | -2.1237| -0.2| 8/6
Health Care | -0.0218| 0.0| 4/3
Consumer Discretionary | 0.1491| 0.0| 8/6
Communication Services | 1.2670| 0.1| 2/5
Consumer Staples | 5.2671| 0.7| 9/2
Materials | 28.4676| 1.4| 40/11
Energy | 31.7398| 1.0| 37/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Asset Management | -9.8350| -1.7| 61.6| -24.5
TD Bank | -7.5900| -0.7| -13.4| -13.1
RBC | -4.9940| -0.4| -10.8| -8.1
Enbridge | 4.0440| 0.6| 39.0| 4.1
Cameco | 4.1980| 4.4| -10.4| 30.7
Nutrien | 10.0400| 2.4| -17.9| 21.0
US
By Isabelle Lee, Vildana Hajric and Peyton Forte
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended a volatile session lower after a slew of Federal Reserve officials hammered home their resolve to remain aggressive in their fight against inflation.
The S&P 500 dropped for the sixth straight session, its longest losing streak since February 2020, sparked by harsh central bank tightening programs. The index swung between gains and losses throughout the session after the Federal Reserve’s James Bullard added to a chorus of officials saying more rate hikes are needed and the risks to the economy remain elevated.
Longer-dated Treasuries swung to a loss, erasing an earlier rebound. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index set a fresh record high as investors sought haven assets.
Risk assets have been in a tailspin since the Fed delivered a third jumbo hike and warned of more pain to come. An escalation of Russia’s energy conflict with Europe after three pipelines were wrecked in suspected sabotage pushed European natural gas prices higher, further bruising sentiment during the session.
Investors also digested a flurry of data on Tuesday, including core capital goods orders and consumer sentiment, that paint a picture of an economy that can likely withstand additional harsh central bank tightening.
“It is an unsettled market,” said Louise Goudy, partner at Crewe Advisors. “People aren’t sure what the direction and the terminal rate will be, and that’s until we get a better sense of where we’re really going. But the Fed knows that inflation is a genie that’s hard to get back in the bottle and they want to make sure that they take care of the problem at hand.”
Markets have been dealing with “one rolling shock after another,” and haven’t been able to fully recover, Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters.
“I think what’s driving the markets is they just aren’t comfortable with what’s the terminal rate that the Fed needs to get to — is it here, is it much higher, is it close?,” he said “That uncertainty creates interest-rate volatility and I think that’s what the market’s having a tough time digesting.”
Higher interest rates and the dollar are driving a lot of the recent selling, Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade, said in an interview.
“Right now there’s a lot of variables up in the air and we’re not going back and forth between optimism and pessimism — there’s a legitimate repricing and re-evaluation going on at the moment, so it makes sense that you probably aren’t going to see technical levels hold, per se,” he said.
But every tumultuous market day is a step closer to recovery, according to Julie Biel, portfolio manager for Kayne Anderson Rudnick.
“I think there’s more realism, there’s more understanding that a soft landing is just impossible to really navigate when you’ve let out this much fiscal and monetary policy,” she said. “It’s just not possible to engineer this with inflation this high. And so that realism is a positive thing. The thing is that we still kind of have a long way to go in terms of a possible correction.”
UK markets also remained in turmoil days after the new prime minister unveiled sweeping tax cuts that threaten to add to inflationary pressures. The 30-year UK government bond yield topped 5% for the first time in two decades and the pound held near $1.07.

Key events this week:
* Fed’s Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Charles Evans and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak at events, Wednesday
* Euro zone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester, Mary Daly speak at events, Thursday
* China PMI, Friday
* Euro zone CPI, unemployment, Friday
* US consumer income , University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Lael Brainard and John Williams speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $0.9592
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.0718
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 144.83 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $19,074.67
* Ether was little changed at $1,323.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.98%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 2.23%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 26 basis points to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $78.54 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,635.50 an ounce

–With assistance from Emily Graffeo.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel 

No one has ever become poor by giving. – Anne Frank, 1929-1945 

Isabel Luo
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

It’s Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year.  Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish holiday that has been celebrated for over a thousand years, began on Sunday with prayer, traditions, and special foods. You may get a little hungry after looking at this delicious challah bread!

September 26, 1904: Earl Grey is named British governor-general of Canada.  Go to article »

The world’s best airline for 2022 named.  It’s been a bumpy year for the aviation industry, but experts say this airline remained first class amid the travel chaos.

Elton John left ‘flabbergasted’ after Biden’s surprise.  Legendary singer Elton John recently performed a concert at the White House and was shocked to receive this special surprise from the President.

7 scenic drives across the US with picture-perfect autumn views.

If you need a fall foliage fix, these places will not disappoint.

Why did the Roman Empire split in two?   An old adage states that Rome wasn’t built in a day, meaning that big projects take time to complete. The Roman Empire, as an example, was established gradually and grew over hundreds of years from a city-state to a colossal empire stretching from Britain to Egypt.   And just as Rome and its empire wasn’t built in a day, it wasn’t destroyed in one either. For centuries, Rome was the center of the empire, but as Rome’s fortunes changed, the seat of power eventually shifted away from the city, and the empire permanently split into two separate states in A.D. 395 — one in the east, and one in the west. But why did the Roman Empire divide into the Western Roman Empire and Eastern Roman Empire? And did it happen quickly?  Full Story: Live Science (9/25)  P.S. I’m off to the Delivering Alpha investment conference in NYC for the remainder of the week.  I’ll be back next week with enlightened insight hopefully.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY -The Painters of Pompeii

In the words of exhibition curator Mario Grimaldi: ‘If classical Grecian painters were deemed “property of the universe” by Pliny the Elder, their Roman pictore contemporaries were skilled craftsmen. Painting was relegated to the work of freedmen, slaves, women and people incapable of political and military life.’
Credit to: The Guardian, Mon 26 Sep 2022

Visitors will gain insight into a wide selection of the most popular compositional schemes across the different periods of Roman art, observing how some artists were able to give an original vision of decorative models, which was continuously varied and updated in line with fashions and styles
Credit to: The Guardian, Mon 26 Sep 2022

Masterpieces from various domus (ancient Roman dwellings famous for the beautiful wall decorations from which they often take their name) are on show in Bologna
Credit to: The Guardian, Mon 26 Sep 2022
Market Closes for September 26, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29260.81	-329.60
		-1.11%
S&P 500	3655.04	-38.19
		-1.03%
NASDAQ	10802.92	-65.01
		-0.60%
TSX	18327.04	-153.94
		-0.83%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	26431.55	-722.28
		-2.66%
HANG SENG	17855.14	-78.13
		-0.44%
SENSEX	57145.22	-953.70
		-1.64%
FTSE 100*	7020.95	+2.35
		+0.03%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.228		3.072
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.049		2.966
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.9244		3.6846
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.7400		3.6059

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7282	0.7355
US $	1.3733	1.3596
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3193	0.7580
US  $	0.9606	1.0410

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1643.55	1671.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.71	79.24

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1955, President Dwight D. Eisenhower suffered a heart attack, and the stock market had a coronary right with him, plunging by 6.62%—which even today remains one of the worst daily losses of the past 100 years.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fifth day, dropping 0.8%, or 153.94 to 18,327.04 in Toronto. The index dropped to the lowest closing level in at least a year.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 7 of 11 sectors lost; 173 of 236 shares fell, while 60 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%. Athabasca Oil Corp. had the largest drop, falling 9.2%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 14%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 2.8%
* This month, the index fell 5.2%
* The index declined 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 0.9% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 6.3% in the past 5 days and fell 7.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 on a trailing basis and 11.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.95t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 16.65% compared with 16.61% in the previous session and the average of 14.37% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -77.7193| -2.4| 4/34
Materials | -26.5900| -1.3| 10/40
Utilities | -21.4550| -2.2| 0/16
Financials | -10.9569| -0.2| 9/19
Communication Services | -10.7751| -1.1| 0/7
Real Estate | -8.4243| -1.8| 2/20
Industrials | -3.6335| -0.1| 14/13
Information Technology | 0.5236| 0.1| 7/7
Health Care | 0.6725| 0.8| 3/3
Consumer Staples | 1.4782| 0.2| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary | 2.9591| 0.5| 7/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD |Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural | Resources | -16.8700| -3.4| 79.3| 17.6
Bank of Nova Scotia| -15.8500| -2.8| 141.3| -24.8
Cenovus Energy | -9.1920| -4.6| 42.5| 29.2
Magna Intl | 3.6090| 2.9| 16.8| -31.6
RBC | 4.7060| 0.4| 23.3| -7.7
TD Bank | 7.0920| 0.7| 139.5| -12.4
US
By Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell in a volatile session exacerbated by sharp moves in the UK currency and bond markets, as hawkish central banks across the globe continued to subdue sentiment.
The S&P 500 ended Monday’s session at its lowest level since December 2020. The Cboe Volatility Index spiked past 30, a level it hasn’t closed above since June. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year rate climbing as much as 21 basis points to 3.898%, its highest level since April 2010.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, a key gauge for raw materials prices, tumbled to the lowest in eight months as fears of a global recession intensified. The pound dropped after the Bank of England said it may not act before November to stem a rout that took the sterling to a record low. The dollar soared to yet another record high.
Markets are on the edge after a selloff of risk assets deepened last week as the UK’s plan to lift its economy fueled fears that heightened inflation would push rates higher and ignite a global recession. UK markets were in focus on Monday as the pound remained volatile after crashing to an all-time low, with the Bank of England’scomments doing little to reassure traders who were waiting for a broader policy response to the fallout from the government’s massive tax cuts.
Federal Reserve officials added to the hawkish rhetoric. On Monday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said additional tightening is needed to rein in stubbornly high inflation and cautioned the process will require some job losses. Her Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester echoed this. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said the central bank still has a ways to go to control inflation.
“On the macro front, it feels like a remake of West Side Story, with a gang of central bankers going after the job market, which refuses to let go,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “Powell and now Andrew Bailey at the BOE are trying to slow the economy down, but my sense is employers are keeping as many workers as they can to avoid being left out in the cold when we recover from the next recession. So we almost have an arms race with central bankers raising rates and employers holding on to workers.”
US markets will continue to remain challenged by uncertainty until companies start to report their third-quarter earnings next month, which will provide greater detail on the health of corporate revenues and profit, wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer. Any company or industry that needs lower rates could be in trouble, FBB’s Bailey says.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on the economic data stream for hints of prices cooling, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley, wrote in a note. “What the market will need to see now to get out of the current conundrum is for inflation inputs to start coming down noticeably,” said Hogan. “We will get a read on the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator this Thursday when the second quarter core PCE is reported. Along with that investors will keep a close eye on the economic data stream for hints of prices paid coming down.”
Trading this week will be punctuated by a number of economic reports including US initial jobless claims and gross- domestic-product data, along with PMI figures from China.
Choppiness in price moves is likely with a steady stream of Federal Reserve officials speaking through the week.
The plunge in UK gilts sent 10-year yields above 4% for the first time since 2010. Traders ramped up wagers on the scale of interest-rate hikes in the short term, with money markets pricing in more than 200 basis points of increases by the central bank’s next meeting in November.
Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank will consider shrinking its balance sheet only once it has completed the “normalization” of interest rates. Raising borrowing costs is the most appropriate and effective tool for now to combat record-high euro-area inflation, the ECB President said on Monday.
Geopolitical risks from the war in Ukraine to escalating tensions over Taiwan and unrest in Iran also continue to weigh on market sentiment. The OECD cut almost all growth forecasts for the Group of 20 next year while anticipating further interest-rate hikes. And a gauge of German business confidence deteriorated.
Key events this week:
* China industrial profits, Tuesday
* US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence, durable goods, Tuesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Charles Evans speak at events, Tuesday
* Fed’s Mary Daly, Rafael Bostic, Charles Evans and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak at events, Wednesday
* Euro zone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester, Mary Daly speak at events, Thursday
* China PMI, Friday
* Euro zone CPI, unemployment, Friday
* US consumer income , University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Lael Brainard and John Williams speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1% as of 4:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $0.9617
* The British pound fell 1.5% to $1.0697
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 144.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $19,173.2
* Ether rose 2.9% to $1,329.58
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 21 basis points to 3.89%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 42 basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $76.92 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,633.60 an ounce

–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Peyton Forte, Natalia
Kniazhevich and Abigail Moses.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember
from time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught. –Oscar Wilde, 1854-1900.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday
September 23, 1846: The planet Neptune was discovered by German astronomer Johann Gottfried Galle.  Go to article »

9/23/2019: The British travel company, Thomas Cook Group, declares bankruptcy, leaving employees without jobs and 600,000 customers stranded abroad.  Hotels throughout the world are stuck with £338 million in unpaid bills.  Independent travel agent Hays Travel acquires 555 former Thomas Cook travel stores in the UK.

Bruce Springsteen, b. 1949.
Ray Charles, b. 1930
Euripides, b.480 BC.

China discovers rare lunar crystal and nuclear power source on near side of the moon: Researchers in China have discovered a new type of crystal nestled among the volcanic debris of the near side of the moon, as well as a potential fuel source that could help revolutionize the production of clean and efficient energy on Earth.  The small, transparent crystal — named Changesite-(Y), after the Chinese moon goddess Chang’e — is more than a billion years old and is as wide as a human hair, according to Global Times, a Chinese state-run news site. In early September, researchers with the International Mineralogical Association confirmed that the tiny moon crystal has a never-before-seen composition and is related to other minerals found only on the moon or in meteors.  Full Story: Live Science (9/23)

DeepMind scientists win $3 million ‘Breakthrough Prize’ for AI that predicts every protein’s structure: Scientists from Google DeepMind have been awarded a $3 million prize for developing an artificial intelligence (AI) system that has predicted how nearly every known protein folds into its 3D shape.  One of this year’s Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences went to Demis Hassabis, the co-founder and CEO of DeepMind, which created the protein-predicting program known as AlphaFold, and John Jumper, a senior staff research scientist at DeepMind, the Breakthrough Prize Foundation announced Thursday (Sept. 22).  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)

Mysterious ‘nightmare’ shark with unnerving human-like smile dragged up from the deep sea: A bizarre deep-sea shark with bulging eyes and an unnerving, human-like smile was recently dragged up from the depths off the coast of Australia. Shark experts are uncertain exactly which species the creepy-looking creature might belong to, adding to the mystery surrounding the unusual specimen.  A deep-sea angler, who goes by the online name Trapman Bermagui, reeled in the mysterious shark from a depth of around 2,130 feet (650 meters) off the coast of New South Wales in Australia. The fisher later shared a snap of the deep-sea specimen on Sept. 12 on Facebook. The image shows off the dead shark’s rough sandpaper-like skin, large pointed snout, large bulging eyes and exposed pearly whites.  Full Story: Live Science (9/23)

Inside the $1 billion sale of Paul Allen’s art collection.

Highlights from London Fashion Week.  After the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the UK went into national mourning. But emerging brands made sure the show went on, with many designers honoring the late monarch in creative ways.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Locals watch as increasing wind pushes waves towards the south shore before the arrival of Hurricane Fiona
Photograph: Nicola Muirhead/Reuters

French street artist and photographer JR directs the unfurling of his giant photograph of five-year-old Ukrainian refugee Valeriia from the city of Lviv
Photograph: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images

A worker passes See Monster, a decommissioned North Sea offshore platform that has been transformed into a public art installation at the Tropicana on the seafront
Photograph: Geoff Caddick/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 23, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29590.41	-486.27
		-1.62%
S&P 500	3693.23	-64.76
		-1.72%
NASDAQ	10867.93	-198.87
		-1.80%
TSX	18480.98	-521.70
		-2.75%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27153.83	-159.30
		-0.58%
HANG SENG	17933.27	-214.68
		-1.18%
SENSEX	58098.92	-1020.80
		-1.73%
FTSE 100*	7018.60	-140.92
		-1.97%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.072		3.122
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.966		3.006
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.6846		3.7098
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.6059		3.6385

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7355	0.7414
US $	1.3596	1.3488
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3180	0.7587
US  $	0.9694	1.0316

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1671.85	1671.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.24	83.94

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1998, Wall Street’s top investment banks completed marathon negotiations for a $3.65 billion bailout of Long-Term Capital Management. The hedge fund had lost nearly $2 billion in a single month when the mathematical models designed by two Nobel laureates failed
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth  day, dropping 2.7%, or 521.7 to 18,480.98 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3.1% on June 16.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11  sectors lost; 226 of 236 shares fell, while 9 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 7.0%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest drop, falling 14.0%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss two times. The next day, it declined after both occasions
* This year, the index fell 13%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 2%
* This month, the index fell 4.4%
* So far this week, the index fell 4.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended June 17 * The index declined 9.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 16.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 1.7% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 on a trailing basis and 11.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 16.61% compared with 15.11% in the previous session and the average of 14.02% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -224.3988| -6.5| 0/38
Financials | -114.4176| -1.9| 1/28
Materials | -97.9172| -4.5| 0/51
Industrials | -33.7435| -1.4| 1/26
Communication Services| -12.5243| -1.3| 0/7
Consumer Discretionary| -12.3042| -1.8| 0/14
Utilities | -11.5196| -1.1| 2/13
Real Estate | -9.2271| -1.9| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -4.9481| -0.6| 0/11
Health Care | -0.7184| -0.9| 2/5
Information Technology| 0.0156| 0.0| 3/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -37.2900| -7.0| 27.6| 21.7
Suncor Energy | -35.8300| -9.3| -28.9| 16.7
Enbridge | -33.6000| -4.5| 14.9| 4.5
Dye & Durham | 0.2490| 5.0| 12.7| -71.8
Canopy Growth | 0.3320| 4.4| 7.2| -65.3
Shopify | 4.7390| 1.5| -8.6| -77.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in the riskier corners of the market deepened as the UK’s plan to lift its economy fueled concerns about heightened inflation that could lead to higher rates, adding to fears of a global recession.
It was a sea of red across equity trading desks, with the S&P 500 briefly breaching its June closing low before paring losses.
Chartists looking for signs of where the rout might ease had identified that as a potential area for support.
Yet the lack of full-blown capitulation may be an indication the drawdown isn’t over.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. slashed its target for US stocks, warning that a dramatic upward shift in the outlook for rates will weigh on valuations.
As risk-off sentiment took hold, Wall Street’s “fear gauge” soared toward a three-month high, with the Cboe Volatility Index momentarily topping 30.
Throughout the year, the US equity benchmark has hit near-term lows when the VIX was above that level, according to DataTrek Research.
Trading volume in the S&P 500 was above the average of the past month, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.
A surge in the greenback to a fresh record swept aside global currencies.
The euro slid to its weakest since 2002, while sterling hit its lowest in 37 years — with former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers saying that “naive” UK policies may create the circumstances for the pound to sink past parity with the dollar.
Treasury 10-year yields fell after earlier topping 3.8%.
“It appears that traders and investors are going to throw in the towel on this week in what feels like ‘the sky is falling’ type of event,” said Kenny Polcari, chief strategist at SlateStone Wealth. “Once everyone stops saying that they ‘think a recession is coming’ and accepts the fact that it is here already – then the psyche will change.”
Liz Truss’s new UK government delivered the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972 at a time when the Bank of England is  struggling to rein in inflation, which is running at almost five times its target.
The plunge in gilts means that investors are now betting the central bank boosts its benchmark lending rate by a full point to 3.25% in November, which would be the sharpest increase since 1989.
Amid heightened fears over a hard economic landing, commodities got hammered across the board.
West Texas Intermediate tumbled below $80 a barrel for the first time since January and was set for a fourth week of declines.
Not even gold — a haven asset — was able to gain due to a surging dollar, and tumbled to the lowest level in two years.
China’s yuan extended losses to a level closest to the weak end of its allowed trading band since a shock currency devaluation in 2015.
With a hawkish Federal Reserve set to sustain the dollar at high levels, analysts say there’s only so much Beijing could do to shore up its currency at a time of economic difficulties.
The greenback’s strength has been unrelenting and will also exert a “meaningful drag” on corporate earnings — serving as a key headwind for stocks, said David Rosenberg, founder of his namesake research firm.
KKR & Co. sees potential trouble ahead, including a mild recession next year, with the Fed narrowly focused on driving up unemployment to tame inflation.
The US labor shortage is so severe that it’s possible the Fed’s tightening doesn’t work, wrote Henry McVey, chief investment officer of the firm’s balance sheet.
“This is a more draconian outcome than corporate profits falling,” he noted, “because it will encourage the Fed to tighten even further.”
Investors are flocking to cash and shunning almost every other asset class as they turn the most pessimistic since the global financial crisis, according to Bank of America Corp.
Investor sentiment is “unquestionably” the worst it’s been since the crisis of 2008, with losses in government bonds being the highest since 1920, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
“It’s a realization that interest rates are going to continue to rise here and that that’s going to put pressure on earnings,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “Valuations are still a little high even though they’ve come down, interest rates still have a lot further to go up and what impact that will have on the global economy – are we headed for a sharper recession than the recession everybody expected? I think it’s a combination of all of that, it’s not good news.”
Stocks are indeed still far from being obvious bargains.
At the low in June, the S&P 500 was trading at 18 times earnings, a multiple that surpassed trough valuations seen in all previous  11 bear cycles, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
In other words, should equities recover from here, this bear-market bottom will have been the most expensive since the 1950s.
Bleak sentiment is often considered a contrarian indicator for the US stock market, under the belief that extreme pessimism may signal brighter times ahead.
But history suggests that equity losses may accelerate even further from here before the current bear market ends, according to Ned Davis Research.
The firm’s Crowd Sentiment Poll has been in an extreme pessimism zone since April 11, or 112 consecutive trading days that mark the third-longest streak of gloom since the data began in 1995.
Over the subsequent few months following those periods of extreme pessimistic sentiment, equity gains were fleeting, with negative median returns three and six months after the 100-day mark.
In another threat to stocks, different iterations of the so-called Fed model, which compares bond yields to stock earnings’ yields, show equities are least appealing relative to corporate bonds and Treasuries since 2009 and early 2010,respectively.
This signal is getting attention among investors, who can now know look to other markets for similar or better returns.
“The next question is when and how far do earnings estimates decline for 2023,” said Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management. “Earnings estimates for next year are too high, they really have not come down, and as that happens you’re going to have further equity pain because in addition to the multiple coming down via the yield mechanism, the earnings you’re applying that multiple to are going to come down as well.”
As slower growth and tighter financial conditions start catching up to companies, a wave of downgrades will come for the US investment-grade corporate bond market.
That’s according to strategists at Barclays Plc, who say companies are facing margin pressure thanks to high inventories, supply chain issues, and a strong dollar.
The firm expects the average monthly volume of downgrades to increase to $180 billion of bonds over the next half year.
The current monthly average is closer to $40 billion.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 2.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.3%
* The euro fell 1.5% to $0.9693
* The British pound fell 3.5% to $1.0868
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 143.30 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $18,823.63
* Ether fell 2.4% to $1,292.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.68%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.02%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 33 basis points to 3.83%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.3% to $79.06 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.7% to $1,651.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Abigail Moses and Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Behavior is the mirror in which everyone shows their image. –Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe, 1749-1832.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday Eve & the official first day of autumn.

On Sept. 22, 1862, President Abraham Lincoln issued the preliminary Emancipation Proclamation, declaring all slaves in rebel states should be free as of Jan. 1, 1863. Go to article »
1994: “Friends” a TV sitcom created by David Crane and Marta Kauffman debuts on NBC and continues for 10 seasons.  The series finale aired  on May 6, 2004, and was watched by around 52.5 million American viewers, making it the fifth most watched series finale n television history and the most watched television episode of the 2000.

Tired: Guitar Hero. Wired: Trombone Champ.

We still don’t know if Neanderthals made art.

Ghostly rings of Neptune shine in new James Webb Telescope images:  When it comes to planetary rings, Saturn is the undisputed poster child. But now a new contender enters the, er, ring — courtesy of a stunning new image taken by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).  In the new picture, released today (Sept. 21) by the European Space Agency (ESA), our solar system’s eighth planet Neptune shimmers like a glorious crystal ball, with a stack of gauzy rings wrapped magically around it.  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)

3,000-year-old gold funeral mask unearthed in noble’s tomb in China:  A gold funeral mask, thought to be more than 3,000 years old, has been discovered in the tomb of an ancient noble in the city of Zhengzhou in central China.  It’s one of the oldest gold objects ever found in central China, as contemporary treasures tend to be crafted from bronze and jade, raising questions about possible links to other early Chinese states where gold was more common.  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A standoff between police officers and demonstrators in St Petersburg
Photograph: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images

Alberta Whittle is a Barbadian-Scottish multimedia artist, researcher and curator. ‘One of the main reasons I wanted to make films was because I thought there weren’t enough images of people who looked like me – Caribbean people or Black people. I was searching for those images and I felt as if I wasn’t seeing them often enough … I needed to make them. My work is very much about resistance, but also questioning the idea of British identity’
Photograph: Cristiano Corte

Come Home Again by Es Devlin, commissioned by Cartier, outside Tate Modern. The illuminated sculpture is a 1/3-scale replica of the dome of St Paul’s Cathedral and filled with Devlin’s drawings of the 243 species of moths, birds, beetles, wildflowers, fish and fungi at risk of extinction. During the day a soundscape of voices speaks the names of the 243 species and as night falls a London choir sings evensong. It will be there from 22 September to 1 October
Photograph: Guy Bell/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for September 22, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30076.68	-107.10
		-0.35%
S&P 500	3757.99	-31.94
		-0.84%
NASDAQ	11066.80	-153.39
		-1.37%
TSX	19002.68	-181.86
		-0.95%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27153.83	-159.30
		-0.58%
HANG SENG	18147.95	-296.67
		-1.61%
SENSEX	59119.72	-337.06
		-0.57%
FTSE 100*	7159.52	-78.12
		-1.08%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.122		3.037
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.006		2.944
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.7098		3.5318
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.6385		3.5023

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7414	0.7426
US $	1.3488	1.3466
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3269	0.7536
US  $	0.9838	1.0165

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1671.75	1664.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.94	83.44

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1985, finance ministers and central bankers from the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. met at the Plaza Hotel in New York with a big goal: reversing an overvalued dollar. At the time, the greenback had mounted a blistering rally—sound familiar?—and the U.S. trade deficit had widened. In what became known as the Plaza Accord, the officials agreed to intervene in currency markets. Ultimately, it worked: The dollar fell in the following years, while the Japanese yen climbed.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.9%, or 181.86 to 19,002.68 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 26.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.3%.
Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.1%.
Today, 201 of 236 shares fell, while 35 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 10%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 0.7%
* This month, the index fell 1.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 2%
* The index declined 6.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 14.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 4.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.9% in the past 5 days and fell 4.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 on a trailing basis and 11.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.07t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.11% compared with 15.06% in the previous session and the average of 13.88% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -44.2944| -0.7| 1/28
Energy | -41.0127| -1.2| 1/37
Information Technology | -31.3574| -3.1| 1/13
Industrials | -28.7283| -1.1| 2/25
Real Estate | -11.0928| -2.3| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -9.3326| -1.2| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -9.1444| -1.4| 2/12
Materials | -8.0183| -0.4| 12/39
Utilities | -6.1848| -0.6| 7/9
Health Care | -1.8701| -2.3| 2/5
Communication Services | 9.1702| 1.0| 4/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -21.0000| -6.3| 5.2| -77.9
Brookfield Asset Management | -9.5400| -1.6| 0.5| -19.5
Couche-Tard | -8.0780| -2.7| 14.0| 3.4
Telus | 3.4170| 1.2| -39.6| -3.2
Teck Resources | 3.4530| 2.6| -21.1| 17.4
BCE | 3.8300| 1.0| -24.9| -5.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields hit multiyear highs and stocks fell as a parade of central banks joined the Federal Reserve in boosting rates to curb scorching levels of inflation at the expense of economic growth.
Ten-year US yields hovered near 3.7%, the highest since February 2011.
The S&P 500 closed at the lowest since June, with some Wall Street voices predicting the gauge may soon test its June bottom that stands about 2.5% below current levels.
FedEx Corp. climbed after saying it expects to save up to $2.7 billion as a result of cost-cutting steps.
The dollar remained near its all-time high, fueled by hawkish Fed policy and investors in search of haven.
The Swiss franc slumped as a central bank hike proved not enough to satisfy expectations, while Japan propped up its currency for the first time since 1998.
The Fed gave its clearest signal yet that it’s willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation, with officials forecasting a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening before year-end.
Norway, Britain and South Africa also followed with hikes of their own as officials rush to get to grips with rampant price increases.
“We see this new even-higher-for-longer rate path as associated with a substantially greater higher likelihood of a hard landing, and so not just unambiguously hawkish but unambiguously bad for risk,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI.
The S&P 500 could be poised for more downside after breaking through a rare technical indicator, according to Berenberg strategists including Jonathan Stubbs.
It has traded below its 200-day moving average for over 100 sessions — a streak that was previously breached only during the tech bubble and the global financial crisis in the past 30 years.
In both of those instances, the gauge posted most of its losses after surpassing that level, with the index declining by a further 50% in 2000-2003 and 40% in 2008-2009 before troughing, they said.
Evercore’s chief equity and quantitative strategist Julian Emanuel cut his S&P 500 year-end projection to 3,975 from 4,200 and expects a “full retest” of the June low in the weeks ahead.
The target cut accounts for a rising probability of a recession following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that the rate-hike process won’t be “painless” for the labor and housing markets.
“The bad news is we are still in one of the weakest seasonal windows of the year, especially in a mid-term year,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. “The good news is that it quickly reverses by mid-October. We think we test or break the June lows before then, which should set up a better entry point for a year-end rally.”
Dennis DeBusschere at 22V Research expects markets to remain volatile while maintaining his neutral, range-bound stance for stocks.
“It’s tough to get long until we get signs of slower underlying demand growth, but tail risk is limited by already tighter financial conditions, lower PEs, and higher implied vol,” he wrote.
The environment isn’t suitable for strong directional positioning on overall indexes, according to Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. However, he advises against retreating to the sidelines, “especially given the drag on cash from high inflation and the challenge of timing a return to markets without missing out on rebounds.”
“Instead, we stay invested but also selective, and focus our preferences on the themes of defensives, income, value, diversification, and security,” he added.

Here are some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $0.9839
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.1257
* The Japanese yen rose 1.2% to 142.35 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 17 basis points to 3.70%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 1.96%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 18 basis points to 3.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $83.49 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,680.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Robert Brand, Michael Msika, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

I believe that unarmed truth and unconditional love will have the final word in reality. 
That is why right, temporarily defeated, is stronger than evil triumphant. -Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., 1929-1968.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 21. 2021: McDonald’s announces plans to “drastically” reduce plastic in its Happy Meals by 2025 (these meals make it one of the largest toy distributors in the world).  It claimed that the benefits wrought by this change would be equivalent to close to 700,000 people ditching the use of plastic for a year.
September 21, 1873: Panic swept the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of railroad bond defaults and bank failures. Go to article »

Leonard Cohen, b. 1934.
Stephen King, b. 1947.
Bill Murray, b. 1950.

Tim McGraw falls off stage during concert.  The country music icon lost his balance and fell into his own crowd — but then turned it into a special moment to bond with his fans.

‘SNL’ announces first three guest hosts of the season.  Live from New York… it’s Saturday Night! These celebrities are locked in as guest hosts for the show’s upcoming 48th season.

Researchers in China have cloned a wild Arctic wolf.  Some scientists are now hoping this controversial technology can be used to help save other species from extinction.

7,000-year-old structure near Prague is older than Stonehenge, Egyptian pyramids:  Archaeologists digging near Prague have discovered the remains of a Stone Age structure that’s older than Stonehenge and even the Egyptian pyramids: an enigmatic complex known as a roundel.  Nearly 7,000 years ago during the late Neolithic, or New Stone Age, a local farming community may have gathered in this circular building, although its true purpose is unknown.  Full Story: Live Science (9/21)

3,300-year-old pink granite sarcophagus of Egyptian ‘pyramid keeper’ found at Saqqara:  Archaeologists in Egypt have unearthed the 3,300-year-old stone sarcophagus of an official whose mummified body was stolen by grave robbers long ago.   The coffin, carved from pink granite, was crafted for an official named “Ptah-im-wea,” who, according to the hieroglyphs inscribed on it, lived during the time of Ramesses II (reign circa 1279 B.C. to 1213 B.C.) and managed a temple that Ramesses II had built at Thebes (modern-day Luxor).  Full Story: Live Science (9/21)

Scientists blasted plastic with lasers and turned it into tiny diamonds and a new type of water:  Using ultrapowerful lasers, scientists have blasted cheap plastic and transformed it into tiny “nanodiamonds” — and, in doing so, confirmed the existence of an exotic new type of water.   The findings could potentially reveal the existence of diamond rain on ice giants in our solar system and explain why these frigid worlds have such strange magnetic fields. The laser-blasting technique could also lead to more Earthly applications.  Full Story: Live Science (9/21)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

More than 1,500 birds from Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore sit in cages during an annual songbird competition
Photograph: Madaree Tohlala/AFP/Getty Images

Drinkers fill a huge tent at the annual Oktoberfest beer festival at the Theresienwiese fairground, which is taking place for the first time since Covid
Photograph: Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images

Harald Wenske crosses a river in a Spreewald barge fully loaded with pumpkins grown in his field
Photograph: Patrick Pleul/AP
Market Closes for September 21, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30183.78	-522.45
		-1.70%
S&P 500	3789.93	-66.00
		-1.71%
NASDAQ	11220.19	-204.86
		-1.79%
TSX	19184.54	-184.15
		-0.95%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27313.13	-375.29
		-1.36%
HANG SENG	18444.62	-336.80
		-1.79%
SENSEX	59456.78	-262.96
		-0.44%
FTSE 100*	7237.64	+44.98
		+0.63%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.037		3.102
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.944		3.025
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.5318		3.5630
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5023		3.5707

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7426	0.7482
US $	1.3466	1.3365
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3247	0.7549
US  $	0.9838	1.0165

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.15	1664.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.44	84.45

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1931, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 6.2% to an intraday low, prompting NYSE officials to debate closing the market. Executives opted for a temporary ban on short-selling, and stocks clawed back much of that loss. A day earlier, the Bank of England had abandoned the gold standard.
Canada
By Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell in tandem with their US counterparts Wednesday following the US Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point interest-rate hike.
The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1%, or 184.15 to 19,184.54 in Toronto.
The index declined to the lowest closing level since Sept. 6.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2%. Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 4.6%.
Today, 166 of 236 shares fell, while 68 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 9.6%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 1.7%
* This month, the index fell 0.8%
* The index declined 5.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 13.6% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 5.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.7% in the past 5 days and fell 4.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 11.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.06% compared with 15.64% in the previous session and the average of 13.82% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -72.0358| -1.2| 7/22
Energy | -56.9684| -1.6| 0/37
Industrials | -24.8527| -1.0| 3/24
Consumer Staples | -11.7402| -1.5| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -8.8510| -1.3| 3/11
Materials | -3.7574| -0.2| 28/22
Information Technology | -3.6044| -0.4| 5/9
Utilities | -1.6456| -0.2| 7/9
Health Care | -1.2980| -1.6| 1/6
Communication Services | -0.0578| 0.0| 2/5
Real Estate | 0.6382| 0.1| 9/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -21.6500| -2.0| -27.2| -11.3
RBC | -15.7500| -1.3| -20.4| -6.4
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.0800| -2.4| -0.2| 32.8
Brookfield Infrastructure | 1.0100| 0.6| -3.8| 7.5
Franco-Nevada | 1.5040| 0.7| -10.5| -8.7
Barrick Gold | 3.6570| 1.5| -35.9| -15.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw some wild swings, with traders overwhelmed by the many headlines that followed the Federal Reserve decision and ended up signaling at least one thing: policy will remain aggressively tight — making the odds of a soft landing look increasingly elusive.
The S&P 500 ended near session lows, pushing its slide from a January record to more than 20%.
The gauge whipsawed in the aftermath of the Fed announcement, climbing as much as 1.3% at one point.
Treasury two-year yields topped 4%, piercing that mark for the first time since 2007.
The dollar rallied.
Jerome Powell vowed officials would crush inflation after they raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a third straight time and signaled even more aggressive hikes ahead than investors had expected.
Powell said his main message was that officials were “strongly resolved” to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal and added that “we will keep at it until the job is done.”
The phrase invoked the title of former Fed chief Paul Volcker’s memoir “Keeping at It.”
“Jerome Powell almost channeled his inner Paul Volcker today, talking about the forceful and rapid steps the Fed has taken, and is likely to continue taking, as it attempts to stamp out painful inflation pressures and ward off an even worse scenario later down the line,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors. “With the new rate projections, the Fed is engineering a hard landing — a soft landing is almost out of the question.”
Officials forecast that rates would reach 4.4% by the end of this year and 4.6% in 2023, a more hawkish shift in their so-called dot plot than expected.
That implies a fourth-straight 75-basis-point hike could be on the table for the next gathering in November — about a week before the US midterm elections.

More Comments:
* “We do think that markets, and consequently the economy, will become ‘Fed up’ with too much tightening, if growth (and employment) are tangibly slowing alongside of these tighter policy moves,” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income.
* “Today’s Fed action, combined with ongoing rollercoaster-like market volatility, underscore the unease of investors amid the magnified economic and market uncertainties driven by high inflation, corporate earnings warnings, geopolitical concerns and other factors weighing heavily on both Wall Street and Main Street,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive officer at AXS Investments.
* “They have a brief window to act aggressively, and they seem eager to use it,” said Jan Szilagyi, co-founder of Toggle AI, an investment research firm.
* “The first set of Fed releases from the September meeting are unambiguously hawkish,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “Thevmacro projections signal increased risk of a harder landing.”
* “The Fed was late to recognize inflation, late to start raising interest rates, and late to start unwinding bond purchases,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “They’ve been playing catch-up ever since. And they’re
not done yet.”

Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, Thursday
* The Bank of England interest rate decision, Thursday
* US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Here are some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 1.2% to $0.9847
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.1281
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.88 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.51%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 1.89%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.31%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $83.34 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,681.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Men make war to get attention.  All killing is an expression of self-hate.  –Alice Walker, b. 1944.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 20, 1873: Panic swept the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of railroad bond defaults and bank failures.  Go to article »

Hong Kong’s colorful new ‘pocket parks’ are revitalizing public spaces.  These eye-catching park designs are not what you’d expect to see in urban Hong Kong. Take a look here.

Brad Pitt makes his debut as a sculptor in Finland exhibition.  A-list actor. Guitarist. Dad of six. And now, sculptor. Brad Pitt is a busy man

The Hurricane Fiona fallout continues.
Would you wait in line to eat live sea urchin?
Twenty quadrillion ants go marching. (h/t Atika Valbrun)
I am very intimidated by Japan’s “Wagyu Olympics.”

Can the James Webb Space Telescope really see the past?  On July 12, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made history by releasing its debut image: a jewel-filled photo that’s been touted as the deepest photo of the universe ever taken.  Besides looking farther across space than any observatory before it, the James Webb Space Telescope has another trick up its mirrors: It can look further back in time than any other telescope, observing distant stars and galaxies as they appeared 13.5 billion years ago, not long after the beginning of the universe as we know it.   How is this possible? How can a machine look “back in time”? It’s not magic; it’s just the nature of light.
Full Story: Live Science (9/19)

3,300-year-old cave ‘frozen in time’ from reign of Ramesses II uncovered in Israel:  Archaeologists in Israel have discovered an “exceptional” cave that ancient people sealed 3,300 years ago, hiding grave goods and possibly human burials within it, just yards from a beach south of Tel Aviv.   Use of the cave dates to a time when the ancient Egyptians, led by Ramesses II — who reigned from about 1279 B.C. to 1213 B.C. — ruled what is now Israel, the Israel Antiquities Authority (IAA) said in a statement. During the time of Ramesses II, Egypt controlled an empire that stretched from modern-day Sudan to Syria.  Full Story: Live Science (9/20)

9 million told to evacuate after super typhoon Nanmadol slams southern Japan, heads toward Tokyo:  Officials in Japan have ordered 9 million people to evacuate as the powerful super typhoon Nanmadol pummels the island nation with winds gusting up to 145 mph (234 km/h) and bears down on Tokyo, home to nearly 14 million inhabitants.  Dozens of people were injured and two people have died since the storm made landfall on Sunday morning (Sept. 18) on Kyushu, Japan’s southernmost large island, and then on Monday (Sept. 19), Nanmadol slammed into Honshu, the largest of Japan’s islands, BBC News reported.  Full Story: Live Science (9/19

Hurricane Fiona hits the Dominican Republic after wiping out Puerto Rico’s power grid:  Hurricane Fiona struck the eastern coast of the Dominican Republic on Monday (Sept. 19) after the Category 1 storm had caused widespread flooding, landslides and a territory-wide blackout in Puerto Rico the day before.  Fiona strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane on Sunday morning (Sept. 18), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that the approaching cyclone would likely bring “torrential rains and mudslides” to both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  Full Story: Live Science (9/19)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

British artist Thomas Houseago, centre, poses with US actor Brad Pitt, centre right and Australian musician Nick Cave, prior to the opening of their joint exhibition
Photograph: Jussi Koivunen/AP

Katherine Crockett attends the 10th edition of ‘Diner en Blanc’ at Brookfield Place in Lower Manhattan. The all-white pop-up, the location of which is revealed hours before the event, draws over 5,500 guests who dress in head-to-toe white attire for an under-the-stars dining experience.
Photograph: Timothy A Clary/AFP/Getty Images

An archaeologist holds a vessel that contained opium in the 14th century BC when it was used by Canaanites as an offering for the dead, according to a study by the Israel Antiquities Authority, Tel Aviv University and the Weizmann Institute of Science
Photograph: Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
Market Closes for September 20, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30706.23	-313.45
		-1.01%
S&P 500	3855.93	-43.96
		-1.13%
NASDAQ	11425.05	-109.97
		-0.95%
TSX	19368.69	-193.69
		-0.99%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27688.42	+120.77
		+0.44%
HANG SENG	18781.42	+215.45
		+1.16%
SENSEX	59719.74	+578.51
		+0.98%
FTSE 100*	7192.66	-44.02
		-0.61%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.102		3.146
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.025		3.050
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.5630		3.4944
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5707		3.5168

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7482	0.7544
US $	1.3365	1.3255
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3326	0.7504
US  $	0.9970	1.0030

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.65	1664.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	84.45	85.73

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1873, the stock market crashed and the NYSE Board of Governors closed the exchange for the first time in history. The cause of the plunge: A third of all money on loan from New York banks had gone into buying stocks on margin
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1% at 19,368.69 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Sept. 7 after the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 199 of 236 shares fell, while 32 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.2%.
Interfor Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.6%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.7%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 2.7%
* This month, the index was little changed
* The index declined 3.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 6.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.4% in the past 5 days and fell 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.13t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.64% compared with 15.42% in the previous session and the average of 13.77% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -55.7715| -0.9| 1/28
Information Technology | -27.2738| -2.6| 3/10
Materials | -24.5963| -1.1| 5/45
Industrials | -16.2244| -0.6| 6/21
Real Estate | -14.8936| -3.0| 0/22
Energy | -13.4282| -0.4| 11/24
Consumer Staples | -11.1773| -1.4| 1/10
Utilities | -10.1380| -1.0| 1/15
Communication Services | -9.8897| -1.0| 1/6
Consumer Discretionary | -8.4678| -1.2| 3/11
Health Care | -1.8379| -2.2| 0/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -18.5500| -5.2| -19.2| -76.3
TD Bank | -7.0920| -0.7| -22.8| -9.5
Brookfield Asset Management | -7.0810| -1.1| 11.9| -17.0
Brookfield Infrastructure | 1.3570| 0.8| 129.2| 6.9
Suncor Energy | 3.3260| 0.9| -38.6| 31.8
Nutrien | 4.4160| 1.0| -17.0| 26.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks came under pressure as Treasury yields hit multiyear highs, with traders bracing for a hawkish Federal Reserve that’s expected to boost rates to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.
A slide in equities pushed the S&P 500 more than 10% below its Aug. 16 high — which marked the peak of rally from its June lows.
About 93% of its companies were down Tuesday, with all major groups in the red. Two-year US yields approached 4%.
Investors also kept an eye on geopolitical developments amid news that the Kremlin was moving hastily to stage sham votes on annexing the regions of Ukraine its forces still control.
Fed officials are about to put numbers on the “pain” they’ve been warning of when they publish new projections for the economy Wednesday.
They could show a substantial rise in rates and unemployment ahead as the estimated price tag for reducing inflation.
Officials are also widely expected to boost rates by 75 basis points — and a few market observers say a full-point hike might also be on the table.
To Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities International, the market is underpricing the possibility that the Fed could opt for a bigger move of 100 basis points.
In addition to last week’s inflation surprise, he cited the fact that both the labor market and wages remained “hot” since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech at the end of August.
Only two of the 96 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are currently predicting a full-point move this month.
“The idea that the Fed will raise rates and immediately cut again in mid-2023 should now be put back into storage alongside the beach chairs,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock Inc. “Recent data have confirmed the necessity of the Fed’s tough stance. We believe we are entering a new regime of structurally higher volatility and slowing growth.”
For traders grappling with a hawkish Fed and a looming recession, the next shoe to drop will be on corporate earnings, said a BlackRock co-chief investment officer.
“What we’re concerned about increasingly is earnings downgrades and we haven’t had that yet,” said Nigel Bolton of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, which comprises active stock strategies. “The tone of management teams is already starting to change and we’re going to see pretty substantial reductions for 2023,” he said.
Professional speculators are refusing to surrender to a punishing equity market prone to seemingly endless volatility — boosting bullish and bearish positions at the fastest rate in five years.
As the S&P 500 plunged last week, hedge funds snapped up single stocks while betting against the broad market with products like exchange-traded funds, data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage show.
The appetite for protection against an index-wide drop in the S&P 500 in the next three months has been falling together with the stock market, pushing the put-to-call ratio to a fresh one-year low, data compiled by Credit Suisse Group AG’s derivatives strategists show.
The opposite has been happening on  a single-stock level: A similar ratio jumped to a one-year high as company-specific announcements have been triggering outsized stock reactions.
The risk-off sentiment on Tuesday also dragged down cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin sinking below $19,000.
The US needs to either regulate the existing stable coin market or create its own Fed-backed digital currency to preserve the dominance of the dollar, a panel of experts said at a House hearing Tuesday.
Key events this week:
* Federal Reserve decision, followed by a news conference with Chair Jerome Powell, Wednesday
* Big-bank CEOs testify before US Congress in a pair of hearings on Wednesday and Thursday
* US existing home sales, Wednesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, Thursday
* The Bank of England interest rate decision, Thursday
* US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $0.9978
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.1386
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 143.66 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.56%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 1.93%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 15 basis points to 3.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $84.45 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,673.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

It is a waste of time to be angry about my disability.  One has to get on with life and I haven’t done badly. 
People won’t have time for you if you are always angry or complaining. –Stephen Hawking, 1942-2018.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
September 19, 2008: Struggling to stave off financial catastrophe, the Bush administration asked Congress for $700 billion to buy up troubled mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions.  Go to article »

1970: Michael Eavis hosts the first ever Glastonbury Festival in Pilton, Somerset, England.

Oktoberfest returns after two-year hiatus. The world’s largest beer festival kicked off Saturday in Munich, Germany, with thousands of people joining the festivities. Look at all the lederhosen…

Hoard of Islamic era gold and silver coins found behind Egyptian temple: Archaeologists in Egypt have uncovered a nearly 1,000-year-old cache of gold and silver coins behind a temple in Esna, a city located along the Nile River.  The hoard, which was discovered by a team of researchers from Egypt’s Supreme Council for Archaeology, includes coins minted throughout different parts of the Islamic era, which began in A.D. 610, when Muhammad received his first revelation, and lasted until approximately the 13th century.  Full Story: Live Science (9/16)

In a 1st, scientists use designer immune cells to send an autoimmune disease into remission: Five patients with hard-to-treat lupus entered remission after scientists tweaked their immune cells using a technique normally used to treat cancer. After the one-time therapy, all five patients with the autoimmune disease stopped their standard treatments and haven’t had a relapse.  This treatment, known as chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy, needs to be tested in larger groups of lupus patients before it can be approved for widespread use. But if the results hold up in larger trials, the therapy could someday offer relief to people with moderate to severe lupus.
Full Story: Live Science (9/17)

Simon Armitage’s elegant poem for the Queen’s death, his elegy inspired by one of her favourite flowers:

Floral Tribute
Evening will come, however determined the late afternoon,
Limes and oaks in their last green flush, pearled in September mist.
I have conjured a lily to light these hours, a token of thanks,
Zones and auras of soft glare framing the brilliant globes.
A promise made and kept for life – that was your gift –
Because of which, here is a gift in return, glovewort to some,
Each shining bonnet guarded by stern lance-like leaves.
The country loaded its whole self into your slender hands,
Hands that can rest, now, relieved of a century’s weight.

Evening has come. Rain on the black lochs and dark Munros.
Lily of the Valley, a namesake almost, a favourite flower
Interlaced with your famous bouquets, the restrained
Zeal and forceful grace of its lanterns, each inflorescence
A silent bell disguising a singular voice. A blurred new day
Breaks uncrowned on remote peaks and public parks, and
Everything turns on these luminous petals and deep roots,
This lily that thrives between spire and tree, whose brightness
Holds and glows beyond the life and border of its bloom.

-by Simon Armitage
PHOTOS OF THE  DAY

The coffin of Queen Elizabeth II, draped in the royal standard at Westminster Abbey, is surrounded by members of her family during the state funeral service
Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian

Emma, the monarch’s fell pony, stands as the ceremonial procession of the coffin of Queen Elizabeth II arrives at Windsor Castle
Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

The royal corgis await the cortege
Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters
Market Closes for September 19, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	31019.68	+197.26
		+0.64%
S&P 500	3899.89	+26.56
		+0.69%
NASDAQ	11535.02	+86.62
		+0.76%
TSX	19562.38	+176.50
		+0.91%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27567.65	-308.26
		-1.11%
HANG SENG	18565.97	-195.72
		-1.04%
SENSEX	59141.23	+300.44
		+0.51%
FTSE 100*	7236.68	-45.39
		-0.62%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.146		3.139
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.050		3.072
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.4944		3.4494
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5168		3.5131

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7544	0.7537
US $	1.3255	1.3268
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3284	0.7528
US  $	1.0024	0.9976

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.65	1689.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.73	85.11

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1974, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon predicted that interest rates, then around 8%, would soon fall. The Dow leapt 3.4% on the good news. Over the next seven years, interest rates proceeded to double.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.9% at 19,562.38 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.9%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%. Kinross Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 10.8%.
Today, 181 of 236 shares rose, while 52 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 7.8%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 3.7%
* The index declined 4.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.7% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.1% in the past 5 days and fell 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.42% compared with 15.17% in the previous session and the average of 13.67% over the past month
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|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 53.5438| 2.5| 48/3
Financials | 42.7855| 0.7| 26/2
Energy | 26.6400| 0.8| 31/7
Industrials | 23.0536| 0.9| 23/4
Information Technology | 16.1962| 1.6| 9/5
Consumer Discretionary | 9.5464| 1.4| 11/3
Utilities | 6.9306| 0.7| 12/4
Real Estate | 0.4540| 0.1| 11/10
Health Care | 0.3814| 0.5| 3/4
Communication Services | -0.5209| -0.1| 2/4
Consumer Staples | -2.4957| -0.3| 5/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | 17.7800| 4.2| 8.2| 25.1
Shopify | 11.9300| 3.5| -34.9| -75.0
RBC | 11.1400| 0.9| -17.2| -4.9
Brookfield Renewable Partners | -0.5970| -0.8| -35.3| 11.6
Rogers Communications | -1.9060| -1.4| -35.1| -7.6
Couche-Tard | -2.2770| -0.7| -31.7| 10.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks pushed higher in the final hour of New York trading, with a rally in megacaps like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. driving a rebound that followed the worst weekly rout since mid-June.
Major equity benchmarks had a tough time finding direction Monday as traders geared for another super-sized US rate hike amid fears on whether the Federal Reserve could overtighten and raise the odds of a hard landing.
Treasury 10-year yields hovered near 3.5% while the two-year rate, which is more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, hit the highest since 2007.
Traders are betting the Fed will hike by 75 basis points Wednesday, signal rates are heading above 4% and will then pause.
The long hold strategy is rooted in the idea the central bank would avoid the disastrous stop-go policy of the 1970s that allowed inflation to get out of hand.
While a case can be made for going bigger, a shock full-point hike could add to recession jitters, further depressing investor sentiment.
“While more hawkish central bank pricing and the resulting increase in real yields is weighing on risk assets, we also believe that any downside from here would be limited,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, said. “Robust earnings, low investor positioning and well anchored long-term inflation expectations should mitigate any downside in risk assets from here.”
To Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, a full-point hike would “unnerve Wall Street” as it would imply a central bank “overreacting to the data rather than sticking to its game plan.”
Following the previous seven rate increases of that magnitude, the US equity benchmark fell four times each over one-, three-, and six-month periods, he added.
Meantime, Ed Yardeni, president of his namesake research firm who nailed the market bottom in 1982 and 2009, sees the Fed boosting rates by 100 basis points this month, with Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank’s economic projections looking hawkish.
He noted that could cause the S&P 500 to retest its June 16 low of 3,666.77, almost 6% below current levels.
While a policy surprise could certainly move markets, the Fed’s revised forecasts for where the policy rate will ultimately come to rest and how long it’s likely to stay at that level will be equally important.
Swap contracts that forecast rates over the next two years now peak at 4.5% in March 2023 — a full point higher than was expected after the last meeting in July.
“Due to current negative indicators including high inflation and the Fed’s upcoming rate announcement, global economic growth concerns and earnings expectations, we expect to see a continued negative pattern in the near-term,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “It will not take much good news to light a fire under the market, but we don’t expect that good news to come in the next few weeks.”
In a sign of how severe the equity beatdown has been, the S&P 500 has been trading below a key technical level for the longest stretch since the global financial crisis.
Its long-term trend has turned “sharply lower recently,” and the index has closed below its 200-day moving average for 110 trading sessions, the longest streak since the bear markets of 2008-2009 and 2000-2002, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
During the five-week period that started in mid-August and ended Sept. 7, long-only institutional investors sold $51.2 billion worth of US-traded stocks — roughly a quarter of what they dumped in the prior 31 weeks of this year, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis.
The data don’t include last week, when a surprising inflation print stoked concerns of a Fed tightening that’s more aggressive than expected.
“Volatility is expected to remain heightened through the remainder of this year at a minimum,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. “Until there is consistent improvement from inflation, timing the peak in Fed rate hikes is challenging. We do not suggest selling into the volatility. While we do not rule out a testing of the June S&P 500 low, we would look at it as a potential buying opportunity and focus on areas that are reflecting the potential downside in economic growth and earnings.”
Every major bottom in the last 15 years hasn’t culminated until the Cboe VIX Index started trading 10 volatility points higher than the VIX futures two months from now, signaling a front-month inversion of the volatility curve, data compiled by BTIG LLC show.
That’s yet to happen in this year’s rout.
Even as the VIX curve shifted higher and became flatter, it’s still in its usual upward-sloping shape, meaning the here-and-now cost for protection is lower than several months out.
Bond issuers also seem cautious about the market now.
Four potential high-grade borrowers looked at selling bonds Monday, but ultimately opted to stand down amid a volatile start to trading.
Supply is now running well below forecasts for September, with rapidly rising yields derailing some issuers’ plans.
In a time-tested harbinger of an economic downturn, short-term US rates have exceeded yields on longer maturities for months.
The MLIV Pulse survey, which drew 737 responses, showed that the bulk of contributors expect a deeper inversion.
Some see it reaching levels last seen in the early 1980s, when Paul Volcker ratcheted up borrowing costs to break the back of hyperinflation.
The majority of the MLIV survey’s contributors say it’s best to bet on dollar gains, and 44% prefer to sell stocks.
Key events this week:
* US housing starts, Tuesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* US existing home sales, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve decision, followed by a news conference with Chair Jerome Powell, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, Thursday
* The Bank of England interest rate decision, Thursday
* US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0024
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.1436
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 143.17 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 1.80%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $85.46 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Cecile Gutscher, Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Time brings all things to pass. –Aeschylus,  525 BC-456 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com