August 3, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 3, 1987: The Iran-Contra congressional hearings ended with none of the 29 witnesses tying President Ronald Reagan directly to the diversion of arms-sales profits to Nicaraguan rebels.  Go to article »
August 3, 1946: America’s first theme park opens its doors in Santa Claus, Indiana, USA. At the time, there were no other US amusement parks with a central theme.
Martha Stewart, lifestyle maven, b. 1941.

Six tasks you’ve been putting off that you need to do now.  This article immediately shamed me. Time to schedule an oil change and a closet clean-out.

Stretching and range of motion exercises can slow cognitive decline as much as aerobic exercises.  They also keep your joints from sounding like a bowl of Rice Krispies in the morning.

Parts of the moon may provide stable temperatures for humans, researchers find.  Say no more. I’m putting my moon boots on as we speak and blowing this popsicle stand once and for all

Ancient ‘ritual bath’ and elite villa unearthed by Jerusalem’s Western Wall:  Archaeological excavations beside Jerusalem’s Western Wall have unearthed thousands of years of the city’s history — including an ornate 2,000-year-old villa with a private mikveh, or ritual bath.  The Western Wall is one of the holiest sites in Judaism and it’s visited by millions of worshipers and tourists each year. But visitors typically have to descend 142 steps or make a long detour around the city walls to reach the holy site.  Full Story: Live Science (8/2) 

Thousands of jellyfish swarm near Israel, mesmerizing images reveal:  Jellyfish are swarming in massive numbers in the Mediterranean Sea, close to the port city of Haifa in northern Israel.  The sea was “bedazzled with thousands of white dots,” according to The Jerusalem Post, which also reported that the swarm extended below the surface to depths of several hundred meters.  Full Story: Live Science (8/2) 

RIP, Vin Scully.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Water lilies in the gardens of the painter Claude Monet at sunrise
CREDIT: Lou Benoist/AFP/Getty Images

The Egyptian air force’s Silver Stars and South Korea’s Black Eagles aerobatic teams perform during the Pyramids air show
CREDIT: Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters

Members of the Cracovia Danza ballet perform during the Feast of the Cloth Hall
CREDIT: Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

Market Closes for August 3rd, 2022

Market
Index
Close Change
Dow
Jones
32812.50 +416.33
+1.29%
S&P 500 4155.17 +63.98
+1.56%
NASDAQ 12668.16 +319.40

+2.59%

TSX 19545.94 +40.61
+0.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International Markets

Market
Index
Close Change
NIKKEI 27741.90 +147.17
+0.53%
HANG
SENG
19767.09 +77.88
+0.40%
SENSEX 58350.53 +214.17
+0.37%
FTSE 100* 7445.68 +36.57

+0.49%

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond
2.716    2.711
CND.
30 Year
Bond
2.785 2.832
U.S.   
10 Year Bond
2.7046 2.7483
U.S.
30 Year Bond
2.9453    3.0065

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.7787 0.7766
US
$
1.2841 1.2876
Euro Rate
1 Euro=
Inverse
Canadian $ 1.3058 0.7658
US
$
1.0169 0.9834

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold
Fix
1779.75 1772.40
 
Oil
WTI Crude Future 90.66 94.42

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1811, Elisha Graves Otis was born on a farm outside Halifax, Vt. He went on to invent the elevator brake, making skyscrapers practical. Otis demonstrated his innovation at the Crystal Palace exposition in New York in 1854, when he rode an elevator several dozen feet into the air and an assistant chops the hoisting cable with an axe—and the elevator did not fall.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 19,545.94 in Toronto.

The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 10.8%.

Bausch Health Cos. had the largest increase, rising 13.4%.
Today, 114 of 238 shares rose, while 122 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index declined 4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 8.1% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 17.09% compared with 17.12% in the previous session and the average of 19.16% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Financials | 70.7642| 1.2| 24/5
* Information Technology | 59.4350| 5.2| 13/1
* Industrials | 19.8875| 0.8| 21/8
* Consumer Discretionary | 5.9727| 0.9| 8/5
* Real Estate | 4.9546| 0.9| 20/2
* Health Care | 1.9653| 2.8| 5/2
* Consumer Staples | -0.1960| 0.0| 3/8
* Communication Services | -4.9719| -0.5| 3/4
* Utilities | -7.1613| -0.7| 4/12
* Materials | -27.8406| -1.3| 8/42
* Energy | -82.1869| -2.3| 5/33
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Shopify | 41.3200| 10.8| 15.4| -69.1
* Royal Bank of Canada | 19.9200| 1.6| -31.0| -5.9
* TD Bank | 13.6600| 1.3| -55.1| -13.5
* Cenovus Energy | -12.3300| -6.0| -3.4| 44.4
* Suncor Energy | -15.5900| -3.7| 21.4| 30.5
* Canadian Natural Resources | -21.3200| -3.9| -42.1| 25.2

US
By Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Natalia Kniazhevich
(Bloomberg) — US stocks snapped a two-day decline as corporate earnings and economic data came in better than expected.

Treasuries trimmed losses as traders priced in further interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
Solid reports from Moderna Inc. and PayPal Holdings Inc. pushed the Nasdaq 100 up as much as 3%, taking it to a level last seen in May.

The S&P 500 closed up 1.6%.
“Now that we’re 70% through the earnings reporting season, we can clearly say that it’s not the earnings Armageddon that many had feared,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. “That’s important.”
The Treasury 10-year yield pushed past 2.80% before falling to 2.70% later in day as investors recalibrated expectations for the Fed’s rate-hike path.

Recent data also eased concerns of a broader economic slowdown as growth in the US services sector unexpectedly strengthened to a three-month high in July.
Treasuries had rallied last week after Chair Jerome Powell  signaled that the pace of future increases may slow later this year, boosting the odds for cuts next year in market-implied measures.

But several Fed leaders have since said the central bank is far from done with tightening and remains laser-focused on tamping down price gains that are the hottest in four decades.
“If there is a change in tone by Fed members, it is similar to a parent that is finally telling the kids that you’ve had enough candy, no more,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. “For decades the Fed always gave the markets more candy, especially when the kids cried out for it. Now, the kids are going to have to do without as long as inflation is at the very unsatisfactory levels that it’s pacing at, even with an expected fall.”
Markets are also somewhat calmer as US-China tensions simmered after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taiwan.

Her visit had provoked an angry response from China, and markets were on the edge ahead of her arrival on Tuesday.
US stocks roared on Wednesday after a session with many twists and turns the previous day.

But equities trading doesn’t reflect the headwinds confronting the market, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Sharon Bell.
“There’s a little bit of complacency in there and markets are not fully taking into account the risks,” Bell said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
Seeing riskier areas of the equity market reprice higher even as some earnings estimates get slashed indicates that investors may be overly optimistic, said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
“In this environment, we would rebalance into quality companies and sectors that have strong balance sheets and more durable profitability,” she said.

“This is not the right time to emphasize cyclical areas or ones that have a greater need for capital.”
Roland considers tech stocks that meet certain profitability and return metrics “higher quality.”

She would deemphasize consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, she said.
Thin liquidity during the summer lull also tends to magnify small market moves, said April LaRusse, head of investment specialists at Insight Investments.
“Sometimes that can make it look more exciting than it probably really is,” she said.
The Cboe VIX Index also shows price swings are usually prevalent in the summer and early autumn.

August and September are historically the two worst months for the S&P 500 Index.
Oil fell after a brief rally as traders mulled the lack of relief for oil markets and a poor demand outlook.

The dollar pared gains after hitting a one-week high.  
What to watch this week:
* BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester due to speak, Thursday
* US employment report for July, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.8%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0169
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2149
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 133.94 per dollar

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 0.87%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 1.91%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.7% to $90.97 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,782.10 an ounce
–With assistance from John Viljoen and Emily Graffeo.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

You know more than you think you know and less than you want to know. –Oscar Wilde, 1854-1900.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

August 2, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.

August 2,1939:  Albert Einstein signed a letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt urging creation of an atomic weapons research program.  Go to article »

On this day in 1990, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Over the next two-and-a-half months, the U.S. stock market lost 19% and many experts began to forecast a protracted bear market. Yet, just one year later, the stock market was up 27%.

Angelina Jolie’s daughter is headed to Spelman College.  Zahara Jolie-Pitt is headed to an HBCU in Atlanta. Check out the lovely photo Jolie shared of Zahara with her new Spelman sisters.

Doorbell ‘ringing’ bear:  Watch this doorbell cam footage of a bear casually walking up to a woman’s front door. U-bear eats? Is that you?

Solar storm from hole in the sun will hit Earth on Wednesday (Aug. 3):  High-speed solar winds from a “hole” in the sun’s atmosphere are set to hit Earth’s magnetic field on Wednesday (Aug 3.), triggering a minor G-1 geomagnetic storm.  Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) made the prediction after observing that “gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun’s atmosphere,” according to spaceweather.com.  Full Story: Live Science (8/1) 

‘Ghost footprints’ left by ancient hunter-gatherers discovered in Utah desert:  Archaeologists recently stumbled upon a set of mysterious “ghost footprints” in the salt flats of a Utah desert.  These unusual ancient tracks get their eerie name not because they are from an ethereal realm, but due to their earthly composition: They become visible only after it rains and the footprints fill with moisture and become darker in color, before disappearing again after they dry out in the sun. Full Story: Live Science (8/2) 

Could we ever eradicate the flu?  For many people, catching the flu might not seem like that big of a deal — you might feel crummy, miss a few days of work or school, and then return to daily life. But this common illness causes tens of thousands of hospitalizations and deaths each year: Between 2010 and 2020, up to 342,000 people died of influenza in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). During three out of the four flu pandemics in the past two centuries, including the 1918 influenza pandemic, that number jumped into the millions worldwide.  Ending this disease would prevent countless deaths. But is it possible to eradicate the flu?
Full Story: Live Science (8/1)

What is the birthday paradox?  Here’s a fun brain teaser: How large does a random group of people have to be for there to be a 50% chance that at least two of the people will share a birthday? The answer is 23, which surprises many people. How is this possible?  When pondering this question, known as the “birthday problem” or the “birthday paradox” in statistics, many people intuitively guess 183, since that is half of all possible birthdays, given how there are generally 365 days in a year. Unfortunately, intuition often fares poorly at this kind of statistical problem.  Full Story: Live Science (7/30) 

The longest-living animals on Earth:  The animal kingdom boasts some incredibly long lifespans that far exceed the average human’s. While humans may have an “absolute limit” of 150 years, this is just a blink of an eye compared with the centuries and millennia that some animals live through; and some animals can even stop or reverse the aging process altogether.  Although there are very long-living land animals (the oldest tortoise, for example, is nearly 190 years old), none of them make this list — the true age champions all live in water. From old to oldest, here are 10 of the longest-living animals in the world today.  Full Story: Live Science (7/30) 
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Aerial picture released by Greenpeace showing smoke billowing from a fire in the Amazon forest in the municipality of Apui. The number of wildfires in the Brazilian Amazon increased by 8% in July 2022 compared with the same month last year
CREDIT: Christian Braga/Greenpeace/AFP/Getty Images

A polar bear is observed during the expedition of a Turkish scientific research team in the Arctic Ocean as many animals in the Arctic region faced the danger of extinction
CREDIT: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Artist Patricia Piccinini speaks during the press presentation of her exhibition. Patricia Piccinini: We are Connected features unique and bizarre hyperrealistic sculptures of animal-human hybrids
CREDIT: Roslan Rahman/AFP/Getty Images

Market Closes for August 2nd, 2022

Market
Index
Close Change
Dow
Jones
32396.17 -402.23
-1.23%
S&P 500 4091.19 -27.44
-0.67%
NASDAQ 12348.76 -20.22

-0.16%

TSX 19505.33 -187.59
-0.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International Markets

Market
Index
Close Change
NIKKEI 27594.73 -398.62
-1.42%
HANG
SENG
19689.21 -476.63
-2.36%
SENSEX 58136.36 +20.86
+0.04%
FTSE 100* 7409.11 -4.31

-0.06%

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond
2.711    2.610
CND.
30 Year
Bond
2.832 2.774
U.S.   
10 Year Bond
2.7483 2.6559
U.S.
30 Year Bond
3.0065    3.0105

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.7766 0.7813
US
$
1.2876 1.2799
Euro Rate
1 Euro=
Inverse
Canadian $ 1.3095 0.7637
US
$
1.0170 0.9833

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold
Fix
1772.40 1753.50
 
Oil
WTI Crude Future 94.42 98.62

Market Commentary:
If you destroy a free market you create a black market.  If you have ten thousand regulations you destroy all respect for the law. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1% at 19,505.33 in Toronto.

The move was the biggest since falling 1.5% on July 14 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1.2%.
TC Energy Corp. contributed the most to the index decline,  decreasing 3.4%.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 8.3%.
Today, 176 of 238 shares fell, while 61 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* The index declined 3.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 8.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.3% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.15t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 17.12% compared with 17.23% in the previous session and the average of 19.26% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Energy | -70.8273| -1.9| 7/31
* Materials | -50.0148| -2.3| 12/39
* Financials | -45.8625| -0.7| 6/23
* Industrials | -21.1270| -0.8| 8/21
* Communication Services | -11.4798| -1.2| 0/7
* Real Estate | -9.0614| -1.7| 4/19
* Consumer Staples | -2.8995| -0.4| 1/10
* Consumer Discretionary | -0.1668| 0.0| 5/8
* Utilities | 0.0617| 0.0| 6/9
* Health Care | 1.9882| 2.9| 5/2
* Information Technology | 21.8032| 2.0| 7/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* TC Energy | -15.4800| -3.4| -21.7| 12.2
* Nutrien | -14.7800| -3.6| -3.2| 11.2
* Enbridge | -12.2900| -1.5| 230.6| 14.6
* National Bank of Canada | 1.7620| 0.9| -28.2| -6.0
* Restaurant Brands | 4.1280| 2.8| -26.8| -8.0
* Shopify | 31.4000| 8.9| 26.7| -72.1

US
By Emily Graffeo and Natalia Kniazhevich
(Bloomberg) — US Treasuries sank and stocks dropped after Federal Reserve officials signaled the central bank is still intent on raising rates until inflation is under control.
Treasury yields rose across the curve, with 10-year rates climbing as much as 20 basis points to 2.77%.

The yen, which was on track for its fifth daily gain, fell as the dollar snapped four days of losses amid a sudden turnaround in risk sentiment.
The S&P 500 dropped for the second straight day as Nancy Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan prompted China to announce missile tests, even as she said her visit did not alter longstanding US policy in the region.

The Nasdaq 100 also ended the day down.
Both indexes swung between gains and losses throughout the session as markets remained on edge with geopolitical tensions simmering and commentary from Fed officials making it apparent that a policy pivot was less likely.
Stocks started August on the back foot after posting their best month since 2020 in July.

Investors have been keeping an eye out for hawkish comments from Fed officials about the need for higher rates to restrain elevated inflation.
While San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that the Fed is “nowhere near” done with its efforts to tamp down on inflation, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he expects the pace of rate hikes will start to slow later in the year.
“The Fed is not likely to announce they’re letting up on the brakes at this point,” said Ellen Gaske, economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “They are still seeing inflation numbers that have not started to recede.”
Cleavland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed this, saying that she wants to see “very compelling evidence” that month-to-month price increases are moderating before declaring that central bank has been successful in curbing inflation.
Corporate earnings also continued to roll in, impacting stocks.

Caterpillar Inc. slumped after a slowdown in China weakened its business.
That weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was lower for the day.
Shares of Uber Technologies Inc. soared as much as 18% after the firm reported second-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
Fresh economic data kept investors on their toes.

Recent data showed that US job openings in June fell to a nine-month low, a sign of moderating demand for labor as economic pressures mount.
The job market has been a bright spot in an economy otherwise losing momentum and possibly heading toward a recession.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Cecilia Mariotti said it was too soon for stock markets to fade the risks of a recession on expectations of a pivot in the Fed’s hawkish policy.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists, on the other hand, said the outlook for US stocks is improving for the second half of the year on attractive valuations.
Pelosi’s trip has created a fresh pressure point for investors already dealing with the prospects of a US recession, worldwide rate hikes and inflation that risks becoming entrenched as Russia’s war in Ukraine exacerbates food
shortages.
“The Taiwan story fits into the broader risk-off theme,” said Mark McCormick, global head of FX strategy at TD Securities. “It raises concerns about global growth issues, especially if geopolitical tensions and knock-effects exacerbate
inflationary concerns. In turn, that forces central banks to keep fighting inflation in spite of the clear deceleration of global growth.”
This week’s MLIV Pulse survey is asking about your outlook for corporate bonds, mergers and acquisitions and health of US corporate balance sheets through the end of the year.

It takes one minute to participate in the MLIV Pulse survey, so please click here to get involved anonymously. 
What to watch this week:
* St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is due to speak, Tuesday
* OPEC+ meeting on output, Wednesday
* US factory orders, durable goods, ISM services, Wednesday
* BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester due to speak, Thursday
* US employment report for July, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.1%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0170
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2168
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 133.09 per dollar

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 19 basis points to 2.76%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 0.82%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 1.87%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $94.27 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,778.70 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee, Michael Msika, Jordan Yadoo and Cecile Gutscher.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

The cautious seldom err or write good poetry.
                  –Message in a fortune cookie at a Chinese Restaurant (given to Howard Marks).

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com