March 28, 2014 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On March 28th, 1941, Virginia Woolf put on her overcoat, filled its pockets with stones, walked into the River Ouse near her home and drowned herself.

Her note to her husband Leonard Woolf:

Dearest, I feel certain that I am going mad again. I feel we can’t go through another of those terrible times. And I shan’t recover this time. I begin to hear voices, and I can’t concentrate. So I am doing what seems the best thing to do. You have given me the greatest possible happiness. You have been in every way all that anyone could be. I don’t think two people could have been happier ’til this terrible disease came. I can’t fight any longer. I know that I am spoiling your life, that without me you could work. And you will I know. You see I can’t even write this properly. I can’t read. What I want to say is I owe all the happiness of my life to you. You have been entirely patient with me and incredibly good. I want to say that—everybody knows it. If anybody could have saved me it would have been you. Everything has gone from me but the certainty of your goodness. I can’t go on spoiling your life any longer. I don’t think two people could have been happier than we have been. V.

Virginia Woolf, British novelist, essayist, critic, feminist, socialist, pacifist, and one of the leaders in the modernist movement, she was a significant figure in London literary society and a central figure in the influential Bloomsbury Group of intellectuals.  She is the author of Mrs. Dalloway (1925), To the Lighthouse (1921), Orlando (1928) and A Room of One’s Own (1929).

She was an ardent admirer of Vita Sackville-West; the following letter was written to Vita in 1927.

Look Here Vita – throw over your man, and we’ll go to Hampton Court and dine on the river together and walk in the garden in the moonlight and come home late and have a bottle of wine and get tipsy, and I’ll tell you all the things I have in my head, millions, myriads –They won’t stir by day, only by dark on the river.  Think of that.  Throw over your man, I say, and come.  –from The 50 Greatest Love Letters of All Time, edited by David H. Lowenherz, Random House, 2002.

Photos of the day

An Egyptian Goose shelters its young under its wings at Kew Gardens in London. Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP

People cross the Japanese bridge at the waterlily pond at the Claude Monet museum in Giverny, north west of Paris. A new exhibit at Normandy’s Impressionism Museum tells for the first time the little-known story of American Impressionism from where it all began – at the picturesque water lily-filled Giverny gardens of Claude Monet that Americans colonized for three decades. Michel Euler/AP

Market Closes for March 28th, 2014

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

16323.06 +58.83

 

+0.36%

S&P 500 1857.62 +8.58

 

+0.46%

NASDAQ 4155.758 +4.525

 

+0.11%

TSX 14260.72 +81.88

 

+0.58%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14696.03 +73.14

 

+0.50%

 

HANG

SENG

22065.56 +231.08

 

+1.06%

 

SENSEX 22339.97 +125.60

 

+0.57%

 

FTSE 100 6615.58 +27.26

 

+0.41%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

2.447 2.435
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.945 2.934
U.S.

10 Year Bond

2.7208 2.6810
U.S.

30 Year Bond

3.5473 3.5271

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.90404 0.90632

 

US

$

1.10614 1.10336
 
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse

Canadian

$

1.52102 0.65745
US

$

1.37507 0.72724

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1295.38 1291.00
Oil Close Previous

 

WTI Crude Future 101.67 101.28

 

BRENT 109.360 109.360

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

March 28 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose for the first time in three days as raw-materials producers rallied after crude and copper prices advanced to weekly gains.

Teck Resources Ltd., Canada’s largest diversified mining company, added 1.9 percent as copper posted the biggest weekly advance in six months. Kinross Gold Corp. jumped 4.7 percent after analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised their rating for the stock. BlackBerry Ltd. slumped 6.6 percent for a fourth day of losses after reporting weaker-than-forecast revenue.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 81.88 points, or 0.6 percent, to 14,260.72 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The equity benchmark fell 0.5 percent this week.

“It’s a pretty broad-based gain, oil and gas are rising and the materials are looking strong,” said Bruce Campbell, fund manager at StoneCastle Investment Management Inc. in Kelowna, British Columbia. The firm manages about C$100 million ($91 million). “Looking at the past week, the first four days have been risk-off and people were tentative. Now people are buying on the dips and jumping back in.”

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in a statement the country has policies in reserve to deal with any economic volatility this year and can’t ignore “difficulties and risks” from a slowdown in the economy. Gross domestic product is forecast to increase 7.4 percent this year, the lowest since 1990, according to the median estimate of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

American economic data is also improving, Campbell said.

Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent in February, the most in three months, as income increased.

Silvercorp Metals Inc. gained 2.8 percent to C$2.20 and Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. increased 2.5 percent to C$4.10 as raw-materials stocks rallied 1.3 percent as a group. Seven of 10 industries in the S&P/TSX advanced on trading volume 7.1 percent lower compared with the 30-day average.

Silver for May delivery rose 0.4 percent to $19.79 an ounce in New York, snapping a nine-day slump.

Kinross Gold jumped 4.7 percent to C$4.67, snapping five days of losses. Andrew Quail, analyst at Goldman Sachs, raised his rating for the stock to neutral, the equivalent of a hold, from sell due to the company’s recent share price decline. The stock has 12 buys, 14 holds and one sell, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We see greater downside potential elsewhere,” Quail said in a note to clients. Kinross had slumped 17 percent in the past five days.

Crew Energy Inc. climbed 4.5 percent to C$8.90 and Bankers Petroleum Ltd. added 0.8 percent to C$5.28 as crude prices rose to a three-week high, increasing 2.2 percent this week, amid shrinking U.S. stockpiles. Suncor Energy Inc., the nation’s largest oil producer, rallied 2.6 percent to C$38.19, the highest in almost three years.

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. increased 4.3 percent to C$5.36 after posting a 41 percent increase in funds from operations in the fourth quarter amid rising natural gas prices. The stock has risen for the past 11 days, a record streak.

Teck Resources gained 1.9 percent to C$23.85 and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. increased 2.3 percent to C$20.56 as copper rose 1.6 percent in New York. The price gained 3.1 percent this week, the most since September.

BlackBerry, the Waterloo, Ontario-based smartphone maker, slumped 6.6 percent to C$9.31, the worst decline since November, erasing earlier gains of as much as 6.8 percent to extend a losing streak to four days. BlackBerry posted sales of $976 million in the quarter, a 64 percent slump compared with year- ago figures.

The company also reported an adjusted loss of 8 cents a share, ahead of the 57-cent loss forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

John Chen, who took over as chief executive officer in November, is working to eliminate a third of the company’s workforce and signed a deal with Foxconn Technology Group to outsource some of its handset production, distribution and design. Last week, BlackBerry agreed to sell most of its real estate in Canada, which could fetch more than $500 million.

US

By Lu Wang and Callie Bost

March 28 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks climbed after a two-day slide, as consumer shares rebounded amid data showing household purchases rose the most in three months. Biotechnology shares extended losses, weighing on the Nasdaq Composite Index.

H&R Block Inc. and GameStop Corp. climbed at least 6.2 percent, leading gains among consumer shares. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. rallied 4.4 percent after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the stock. The Nasdaq Composite almost erased a 1.3 percent rally as Gilead Sciences Inc. and Biogen Idec Inc. tumbled more than 4 percent, capping the week’s sell-off in riskier assets.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.5 percent to 1,857.62 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming its loss for the week to 0.5 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 58.83 points, or 0.4 percent, to 16,323.06 today. The Nasdaq Composite increased 0.1 percent to 4,155.759, completing the week with a 2.8 percent drop.

“It’s been a choppy market,” Mike McGarr, a portfolio manager at Becker Capital Management Inc. in Portland, Oregon, said by phone. The firm oversees $2.8 billion. “There has been a very noticeable change this month, away from those sorts of high flyers, and back toward value. It’s nice to see the market coming back to more fundamentally real stories.”

Investors have been selling the bull market’s biggest winners, locking in gains as they assess how much of the recent economic weakness is weather-related and if the situation in Ukraine will worsen.

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index slumped 2.8 percent today, pushing its loss this week to 7 percent. The gauge rallied 79 percent in the 12 months through February. The Russell 2000 Index fell all but one day this week for a 3.5 percent decline.

The measure for smaller companies is down 1 percent this quarter, poised to snap a six-quarter streak of gains, the longest stretch since 1996.

Gilead, the world’s largest maker of HIV medicines, sank 4 percent today to $68.55. Biogen Idec Inc., maker of the multiple sclerosis drugs, tumbled 5.1 percent to $294.12.

Money is flowing to large companies with stable earnings.

Microsoft Corp. surged 2.4 percent today to $40.30 for the biggest gain in the Dow. Energy shares climbed 1.2 percent while Exxon Mobil Corp. added 1.5 percent to $97.70.

Consumer-discretionary shares rallied 0.8 today as data showed household spending in the U.S. rose in February by the most in three months as incomes increased.

Americans were shaking off the effects of the coldest winter in four years as they ventured out to shop, supported by a job market that’s also picking up speed.

Separate data indicated consumer confidence fell less than previously estimated in March.

“If consumers go back in and are confident enough to start spending again, that supports earnings and will certainly support the equity market,” Chris Gaffney, senior market strategist at EverBank Financial in St. Louis, said by phone.  “I feel like we’re forming a base that we can move high now.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge for U.S. stock volatility known as VIX, retreated 1.4 percent to 14.41. About 6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 12 percent below the three-month average.

Consumer stocks in the S&P 500 rebounded from a five-day slide. H&R Block, the biggest U.S. tax preparer, climbed 6.2 percent to $30.36 while GameStop, a video-game retailer, advanced 8.8 percent to $40.62.

Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc. surged 13 percent to $71.93. The home-furnishings retailer forecast that adjusted profit will be between 9 cents a share and 11 cents in the first quarter, compared with analysts’ estimates for 6 cents. It said annual profit will be as much as $2.22 a share, beating the average projection for $2.18.

Cognizant gained 4.4 percent to $49.69. The provider of consulting and outsourcing services was boosted to overweight, an equivalent of buy, by Morgan Stanley. The company’s growth potential may have been under-estimated, analyst Katy Huberty wrote in a note.

PG&E Corp. fell 4 percent to $41.89. Charges to be filed by the U.S. Attorney’s office will accuse the company of violating the federal Pipeline Safety Act, leading to the explosion and deaths, according to a company statement. PG&E didn’t say when it expects the charges to be filed, and said it believes they aren’t merited.

Red Hat Inc. slipped 7 percent to $52.23. The largest seller of Linux operating-system software said it expects to earn $1.56 a share this year. That trailed the average analyst estimate of $1.62 in a Bloomberg survey.

BlackBerry Ltd. dropped 7.1 percent to $8.41. The smartphone maker said sales won’t grow until the fiscal year that begins next March, even after cost-cutting helped the company post a smaller quarterly loss than analysts estimated.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

I see these things with an intense joy,

and while I observe, there is no observer, only a beauty almost like love.

For an instant, I am absent, myself and my problems, my anxieties, my troubles: nothing but this wonder exists.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann


The question isn’t who is going to let me; it’s who is going to stop me.

-Ayn Rand, 1905-1982


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor


Queensbury Securities,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

March 27, 2014 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

From Dorothy Wordsworth’s Journal, March 27th, 1802:

A divine morning.  At breakfast William wrote part of an ode.  Mr Oliff sent the dung and William went to work in the garden.  We sat all day in the orchard.

The ode referred to became “Intimations of Immortality,” of which Gerard Manley Hopkins said: “For my part I should think St George and St Thomas of Canterbury wore roses in heaven for England’s sake on the day that ode, not without their intercession, was penned.

Dove Cottage, Grasmere, the Wordsworths’ Lakeland home.

Photos of the day

A Panamanian golden frog is held up at the aquarium in Vancouver, British Columbia. The aquarium has successfully bred the frogs, thought to be extinct in the wild, as part of a worldwide effort to preserve the species. They are native to the mountainous, higher-altitude regions of western-central Panama. Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press/AP

Visitors walk under umbrellas symbolizing the earth’s environment in Seoul, South Korea. Lee Jin-man/AP

Market Closes for March 27th, 2014

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

16264.23 -4.76 

 

-0.03%

S&P 500 1849.04 -3.52 

 

-0.19%

NASDAQ 4151.234 -22.344 

 

-0.54%

TSX 14178.84 -5.26 

 

-0.04% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14622.89 +145.73 

 

+1.01% 

 

HANG 

SENG

21834.45 -53.30 

 

-0.24% 

 

SENSEX 22214.37 +119.07 

 

+0.54% 

 

FTSE 100 6558.32 -16.98 

 

-0.26% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.435 2.443
CND. 

30 Year

Bond

2.934 2.960
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.6810 2.6901
U.S. 

30 Year Bond

3.5271 3.5406

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.90632 0.90065 

 

US 

$

1.10336 1.11031
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian 

$

1.51629 0.65950
US 

$

1.37424 0.72767

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold 

Fix

1291.00 1303.57
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 101.28 100.26
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada
By Gerrit De Vynck

March 27 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell to a one-month low, led by gold miners, as U.S. congressional leaders passed bills imposing more sanctions on Russia.

Kinross Gold Corp. retreated 4.9 percent for the biggest loss in the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Index. BlackBerry dropped 1.8 percent after Societe Generale SA analysts recommended selling the stock. Africa Oil fell 13 percent after a well in Kenya failed to find viable crude deposits.

The S&P/TSX fell 5.26 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 14,178.84 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, extending yesterday’s 0.8 percent decline that was the biggest since Feb. 3.

“It’s a tug of war,” Paul Gardner, a portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management, said in a phone interview from Toronto. He helps manage about C$300 million ($272.2 million).

“You’re always dealing with the political risk coming out of Russia and the Ukraine and on the other side you have positive economic numbers coming out of the U.S.”

The Senate bill, passed on a voice vote, includes about $1 billion in loan guarantees and authorizes $150 million in direct assistance to Ukraine. The House legislation would impose additional asset freezes and visa bans on senior Russian officials and corporations.

U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the last quarter of 2013, faster than previously estimated but slower than the 2.7 percent median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

BlackBerry fell 1.8 percent to C$9.97 as Societe General analyst Andy Perkins cut his recommendation on the company’s shares to sell from hold.

Kinross lost 4.9 percent to C$4.46 for a fifth day of losses. The stock has fallen 22 percent in the past two weeks to the lowest since January 2002.

Silver futures posted the longest slump in 13 years and gold dropped to a six-week low as signs of an improving U.S. economy cut demand for haven assets.

Africa Oil fell 13 percent to C$7.50 after saying it plugged and abandoned an oil well that failed to find viable crude reserves at its Emong-1 property in Kenya. The company said it will move the rig to search a different area.

Southern Pacific Resources Corp. rose 23 percent to 33 Canadian cents after Raymond James Ltd. upgraded the oil and gas explorer and said it was a likely takeover target.

ProMetic Life Sciences Inc. rose 3.6 percent to C$1.14 after the pharmaceutical company said it would spend more time developing its products before entering commercial partnerships, allowing it to hold on to more of the profits.

US
By Lu Wang and Callie Bost

March 27 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell for the fourth time in five days, led by banks and technology companies, as investors resumed a rotation out of the bull market’s biggest winners.

Citigroup Inc. dropped the most since 2012 after its capital plan failed Federal Reserve stress tests. Accenture Plc fell 5 percent after saying it anticipates a continued “challenging” environment for its business. GameStop Corp. lost 4 percent after its earnings forecast trailed analysts’ estimates. Baxter International Inc. jumped 3.9 percent after announcing plans to split into two companies. Alcoa Inc. rallied 6.2 percent to the highest since 2011.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.2 percent to 1,849.04 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming a loss of as much as0.6 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.76 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 16,264.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 0.5 percent to the lowest since Feb. 10.

“People are reducing their risk portfolios a little bit,”John Fox, director of research at Fenimore Asset Management in Cobleskill, New York, said by phone. The firm oversees about $1.9 billion. “Some of the speculative parts of the market have been selling off. If you own a stock and the reason you own it is it’s going up and it stops going up, there’s no reason to own it.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge for U.S. stock volatility also known as VIX, slid 2.1 percent to 14.62. About 7.2 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 6 percent more than the three-month average.

Today’s drop left the S&P 500 unchanged for the year. Losses this month have been steepest in U.S. stocks that led the five-year-old bull market, with consumer discretionary companies falling 4.3 percent after quadrupling since March 2009.

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, up 304 percent in the last five years, has fallen 11 percent since the end of February, while the Russell 2000 gauge of smaller companies has slipped 2.7 percent after rallying more than 230 percent.

Some of the biggest losses have occurred in technology companies that sold shares to the public in the last few years.  Facebook Inc. has slipped 11 percent in March, while Yelp Inc. decreased 17 percent, Twitter Inc. declined 16 percent and Pandora Inc. dropped 20 percent. The Dow Jones Internet Composite Index of 40 companies has lost 8.5 percent this month.

Since reaching a 13-year high on March 5, the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 4.7 percent. Illumina Inc., Netflix Inc., Tesla Motors Inc. and TripAdvisor Inc. are all down at least 15 percent over that period.

The S&P 500 yesterday slid 0.7 percent after President Barack Obama warned that the crisis in Ukraine may escalate. The U.S. Senate and House passed separate bills today imposing additional sanctions on Russian officials for the nation’s annexation of Crimea.

Applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week to an almost four-month low, a sign companies are confident in the outlook for demand, data today showed.

Gross domestic product grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate from October through December, less than the 2.7 percent median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in February for an eighth straight month, a sign of further weakness in the industry.

“The numbers were neutral from an investors’ standpoint,” Cameron Hinds, the Lincoln, Nebraska-based regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank, which has about $170 billion under management, said by phone. “There was no huge, market-moving information. GDP was slightly below, while claims numbers were a little bit more of a positive. It looks like we’re trending in the right direction from an economic standpoint.”

Investors have removed $6 billion from U.S. equity exchange-traded funds in the past five days and added $555 million to bond ETFs, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Health- care stocks saw the most money removed among industry ETFs, losing $991 million during the past week.

Financial companies fell 0.6 percent for the second-worst performance among 10 S&P 500 industries after technology stocks.

The KBW Bank Index declined 1.3 percent even as lenders announced more than $60 billion of dividends and share buybacks after the Fed approved capital plans for 25 of the 30 banks in its annual stress tests.

Citigroup lost 5.4 percent to $47.45. The bank failed to win approval to raise its dividend to 5 cents a share and put in place a $6.4 billion buyback. The Fed expressed concern about the lender’s ability to project losses in parts of its global operations and to reflect all business exposures in its internal stress test.

Accenture slumped 5 percent, the most since June, to $78.80. The world’s second-largest technology consulting company said eastern Europe adds to uncertainty even as it raised its full-year earnings projections.

GameStop dropped 4 percent to $37.33. The video-game retailer forecast full-year profit that trailed analysts’ estimates and said it will cut the number of its video-game stores by about 2 percent after last quarter’s sales fell short.

Baxter International jumped 3.9 percent to $72.80. The maker of hemophilia treatments will split into two companies, one focused on developing biotechnology and pharmaceutical medicines and one that sells medical products.

Alcoa surged 6.2 percent to $12.59, the highest since 2011.  A U.K. ruling against London Metal Exchange’s pending warehousing changes is positive for the largest U.S. aluminum producer, according to Sterne, Agee & Leach Inc.

Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. rose at least 1 percent to lead an index of phone stocks to the biggest gain in the S&P 500.

Exxon Mobil Corp. jumped 1.6 percent to $96.24 for the steepest climb in the Dow as oil rose to a two-week high on supply concerns.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.


Be magnificent!


One must become poor inwardly

for then there is no seeking, no asking,

no desire – nothing!

It is inward poverty

that can see the truth of a life in which

there is not conflict at all.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Never let the fear of striking out get in your way.

-Babe Ruth, 1895-1948


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor


Queensbury Securities,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7