September 24, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

“September is an optimistic month,” writes Lindsey Taylor in the Wall Street Journal.  “all one has to do is look up.  The clouds in the vast, clear, corn-flower-blue skies are transfixing – whiter, fresher and puffier than seems possible….a restless September sky.”

Pompeii up Close: If you happen to have London on your itinerary, you can take in the exhibit “Life and Death in Pompeii and Herculaneum” at the British Museum.  The rest of us can head to the nearest movie theater that shows Fathom Events on Sept. 25 to catch an in-depth tour of the museum’s blockbuster exhibit (open through September).  Pompeii From the British Museum is a behind-the-scenes look at this collection of artifacts from the ancient Roman civilization destroyed by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius.  Check for local showings at www.fathomevents.com. –CSM, September, 2013.

Jim Henson, the muppet creator was born on this day in 1936.

Photos of the day


Bert and Ernie, as well as Elmo are among a donation of additional Jim Henson objects to the Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History in Washington, D.C. Henson’s daughter, Cheryl Henson, is donating 20 more puppets and props to the National Museum of American History. Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Left to right, Florence Mayor Matteo Renzi, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, London Mayor Boris Johnson, and Warsaw Mayor Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, during the Mayors Challenge competition, at City Hall in London. Mayor Bloomberg is offering European cities millions of dollars to be government groundbreakers, tapping his personal fortune to extend his cities-as-civic-laboratories campaign. Matt Dunham/AP

Market Closes for September 24th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15334.59 -66.79 

 

-0.43%

S&P 500 1697.42 -4.42 

 

-0.26%

NASDAQ 3768.254 +2.966 

 

+0.08%

TSX 12848.89 +37.71 

 

+0.29% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14732.61 -9.81 

 

-0.07% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23179.04 -192.50 

 

-0.82% 

 

SENSEX 19920.21 +19.25 

 

+0.10% 

 

FTSE 100 6571.46 +14.09 

 

+0.21% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.599 2.648
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.124 3.165
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.6552 2.6999
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.6698 3.7250

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97056 0.97237 

 

US  

$

1.03033 1.02841
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.38803 0.72045
US 

$

1.34717 0.74230

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1323.30 1322.86
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 103.17 103.69
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle and Eric Lam

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose for a second day as consumer shares rallied after better-than-expected retail sales boosted prospects for economic growth.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. advanced 2.5 percent to lead consumer-staples producers higher. Canadian Utilities Ltd. added 2.5 percent to pace gains among utilities companies. Air Canada, the nation’s largest airline, rallied to a two-year high.

BlackBerry Ltd. dropped 3.3 percent as investors weighed a $4.7 billion deal to take the smartphone maker private.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 37.71 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,848.89 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has surged 5.9 percent this quarter and is up 3.3 percent in 2013. Trading volume was 2.9 percent below the 30-day average.

“The retail numbers are showing that GDP numbers are going to look a little bit better because of that,” said Paul Harris, partner and portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management, which manages C$300 million ($290 million), said in a phone interview from Toronto. “They show that the market is a little bit better.”

Statistics Canada said today that retail sales rose more than forecast in July, reversing a drop a month earlier and adding to evidence that growth in the world’s 11th largest economy is gaining momentum.

All 10 main industries in the benchmark equities gauge advanced. Producers of consumer staples rallied the most, adding 1.1 percent with 10 of 11 members rising.

Alimentation Couche-Tard, which operates 24-hour convenience stores, jumped 2.5 percent to C$65.33. North West Co., a general purpose retailer, gained 2.8 percent to C$24.

Canadian Utilities gained 2.5 percent to C$35.68 as utilities stocks increased 0.8 percent as a group.

Air Canada gained 5.7 percent to C$3.52, the highest close since January 2011. The stock has rallied 7.3 percent in the past three days. The company yesterday said it was looking for bids for several U.S. cross-border routes, beginning in mid-2014.

Phone stocks gained for an eighth day, with the S&P/TSX Telecom Services Index closing at its highest level since June 18. Manitoba Telecom Services Ltd. gained 0.9 percent to C$33.20 and Telus Corp. rose 0.3 percent to C$35.56, a three-month high.

Energy shares added 0.1 percent, erasing earlier losses after U.S. President Barack Obama said recent overtures from Iran may offer a basis for a “meaningful agreement” to resolve the confrontation over the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program, one of the primary sources of instability in the Middle East. Oil fell to an eight-week low but remained 6.8 percent higher this quarter, the most in a year, and up 12 percent in 2013.

Commodities stocks “are quite attractive,” said John Kinsey, fund manager with Caldwell Securities Ltd. in Toronto.

The firm manages about C$1 billion. “The oil stocks, some of them now have performed quite nicely so they’re catching up” to the price of oil, he said.

Commodity shares, which have lost 29 percent this year, fluctuated between gains and losses as investors watched a looming political clash over the U.S. budget that could shut down the federal government as early as next week and damp growth in the world’s biggest economy. America is Canada’s largest trading partner and the second-biggest user of industrial metals such as copper.

BlackBerry dropped 3.3 percent to C$8.78, below the $9 a share that its biggest shareholder, Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., agreed to pay in a tentative buyout deal.

The $4.7 billion offer forges a path to go private after years of losing ground to Apple Inc.’s iPhone and Google Inc.’s Android.

US

By Lu Wang

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell for a fourth day amid concerns over budget talks and economic growth as investors weighed prospects for easing tensions in the Middle East.

Red Hat Inc. slumped 12 percent after billings at the largest seller of the Linux operating system trailed estimates.

Homebuilders gained 2.3 percent as a group after a report showed home prices increased by the most in more than seven years and Lennar Corp.’s profit beat analyst estimates. Applied Materials Inc. advanced 9.1 percent after agreeing to buy Tokyo Electron Ltd. for about $9.39 billion in stock.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,697.42 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 66.79 points, or 0.4 percent, to 15,334.59. About 6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three- month average.

The market is “riding waves of news, both good and bad,” Malcolm Polley, the chief investment officer at Stewart Capital Advisors LLC in Indiana, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview. His firm manages $1.1 billion. “The market is very dependent on macro news.”

The S&P 500 initially fell as much as 0.4 percent after the Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence slumped in September to a four-month low. A separate report showed a gauge of manufacturing in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond shrank in September.

The equity benchmark index erased earlier losses as President Barack Obama said recent overtures from Iran may offer a basis for a “meaningful agreement” to resolve the confrontation over the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program, one of the primary sources of instability in the Middle East.

Iranian officials told the U.S. that the time isn’t right for direct contact between the two countries’ leaders.

Stocks turned lower in the last 30 minutes of trading as investors watched the debate in Washington over spending cuts.

U.S. Senate Democrats offered a new proposal that funds the government through Nov. 15, complicating efforts to avoid a government shutdown in a week as Republican Senator Ted Cruz began an extended speech in opposition to funding for the health-care law.

“We may have a couple few weeks where there is still lingering concern over the Fed along with very much headline risk around the budget ceiling debate,” David Chalupnik, head of equities at Nuveen Asset Management in Minneapolis, said in a phone interview. His firm manages more than $115 billion. “Over the short term, we would see the market continue to either muddle through or consolidate before we hit earnings season.”

The S&P 500 has declined 1.6 percent over four days after reaching an all-time high of 1,725.52 as the Federal Reserve refrained from cutting stimulus. The Federal Open Market Committee said after its Sept. 17-18 meeting that it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its $85 billion of monthly asset purchases, surprising economists who had forecast a reduction. The S&P 500 has gained 5.7 percent this quarter and is up about 19 percent for the year.

Fed Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said today the central bank may reduce the pace of its quantitative easing program in 2013 depending on the economy’s performance.

“If the economy were behaving in a way aligned with the Fed’s June forecast, then it’s certainly likely that the Fed would begin to taper later this year,” Dudley said in an interview with CNBC. “I certainly wouldn’t want to rule it out. But it depends on the data.”

Stocks fell on Sept. 20 as Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said policy makers may decide to reduce their monthly bond purchases at the meeting in October.

“There are so many different views from the Fed itself and there is no one voice that seems to be articulating a common message,” Mark Freeman, who oversees about $15.8 billion as chief investment officer at Westwood Holdings Group Inc. in Dallas, said by phone. “What they ultimately created is uncertainty and that’s never a positive for the market.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, slipped 1.6 percent to 14.08, extending its drop for the year to 22 percent.

Seven out of 10 S&P 500 groups fell as telephone and consumer-staples companies declined more than 0.7 percent for the worst performance.

Red Hat tumbled 12 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $46.73. Billings, a predictor of future revenue, rose 8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier to $376 million.

Analysts at CLSA had projected an increase of 17 percent, and Stifel Nicolaus & Co. predicted 14 percent growth.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 2.2 percent to $50.32 for the biggest retreat in the Dow. The lender resumed settlement talks with the U.S. as the government was preparing to sue the bank in California federal court alleging it misrepresented the quality of mortgage-backed securities it sold from 2005 to 2007, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The bank offered to pay about $3 billion to settle an array of probes, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing a person familiar with the matter. The Justice Department pressed the bank to pay more, the report said, citing the person.

Carnival Corp. slipped 7.7 percent to $34.54. The world’s largest cruise-ship operator forecast fourth-quarter results that trailed analysts’ estimates, citing a decline in advance bookings and higher fuel prices.

The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index rose 2.3 percent, with all its 11 members gaining, as an industry report showed home prices in 20 U.S. cities increased in the 12 months through July by the most in more than seven years.

Lennar, the third-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, rose 4.3 percent to $36.01 after fiscal third-quarter earnings topped analysts’ estimates, driven by higher sales and home prices.

Applied Materials advanced 9.1 percent to $17.45 as the largest supplier of chipmaking equipment agreed to buy Tokyo Electron. Gary Dickerson, chief executive officer of Applied Materials, will become CEO of the combined company, which will be 68 percent owned by Applied Materials shareholders.

Facebook Inc. climbed 2.7 percent to $48.45. Citigroup Inc.’s Mark May raised his recommendation on the social-network operator to buy from neutral, saying feedback from advertisers and agencies suggest that the growth seen in the second quarter is sustainable. May also boosted his price estimate by 72 percent to $55 a share.

CarMax Inc. gained 3.6 percent to $51.79. The car dealer’s second-quarter profit beat analyst estimates as used car sales climbed 20 percent from a year ago.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

We would rather cling to the known than face the unknown –

the known being our house, our furniture, our family,

our character, our work, our knowledge, our fame, our loneliness, our gods –

that little thing that moves around incessantly within itself,

with its own limited embittered existence.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

At 18 our convictions are hills from which we look; at 45

they are caves in which we hide.

-F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1896-1940


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 23, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1930, Ray Charles was born.  It was wonderful to read about the new stamp (see photo below) being issued to commemorate him.  During his lifetime, he gave the world more than 50 years of jazz, blues, R & B, country and gospel.  He worked as a professional musician in Florida, but at age 17, he took his savings of $600 and moved to Seattle.  There he met Quincy Jones, who was 14 years old at the time, and a friendship began that would last a lifetime.

Must be an auspicious day for musicians –  Bruce Springsteen turns 64 today.  John Coltrane was born on September 23rd, 1926.

Singer Hank Williams had his last studio session on September 23, 1952, recording Your Cheatin’ Heart and other songs.

The planet Neptune has a birthday of sorts today – it was discovered on this date in 1846 by German astronomer Johann Gottfried Galle.

You better live every day like your last because one day you’re going to be right. –Ray Charles, 1930-2004.

Photos of the Day –September 23rd, 2013

A stamp featuring musician Ray Charles is unveiled as singer Ashanti performs at the event at Morehouse College in Atlanta. The US Postal Service is planning to add soul singer Ray Charles to its ‘Music Icons Forever’ stamp series. David Goldman/AP

A member of the media tries out a Surface 2 tablet during the launch of the Microsoft Surface 2 tablets in New York. Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Market Closes for September 23rd, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15401.38 -49.71 

 

-0.32%

S&P 500 1701.84 -8.07 

 

-0.47%

NASDAQ 3765.288 -9.440 

 

-0.25%

TSX 12811.18 +4.71 

 

+0.04% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14742.42 -23.76 

 

-0.16% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23371.54 -130.97 

 

-0.56% 

 

SENSEX 19900.96 -362.75 

 

-1.79% 

 

FTSE 100 6557.37 -39.06 

 

-0.59% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.648 2.687
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.165 3.206
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.6999 2.7374
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.7250 3.7649

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97237 0.97078 

 

US  

$

1.02841 1.03010
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.38758 0.72068
US 

$

1.34924 0.74116

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1322.86 1325.60
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 103.69 105.51
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, halting a two-day slide, as phone stocks gained after foreign competitors signaled no intention to join a wireless-spectrum auction and BlackBerry Ltd. pared declines after agreeing to a buyout.

BlackBerry was unchanged, erasing earlier losses of as much as 8.2 percent, after saying it has a deal to sell itself for $4.7 billion to a group led by Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.

Rogers Communications Inc. rose 1.2 percent as Canada’s three largest phone carriers placed deposits to bid in a spectrum auction that is not expected to attract a foreign competitor.

National Bank of Canada climbed 0.9 percent to pace gains among the nation’s lenders. Catamaran Corp. dropped 3.5 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its rating on the stock.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 4.71 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 12,811.18 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has surged 5.6 percent this quarter and is up 3 percent in 2013. Trading volume was 3.3 percent above the 30-day average.

“The big news event today was BlackBerry,” said John O’Connell, chief executive officer with Davis Rea Ltd. in Toronto. The firm manages about C$600 million. The gains among phone stocks show “the markets were overreacting to the threat of an entrance from foreign telecoms,” he said.

The S&P/TSX traded little changed for most of the morning session before the BlackBerry announcement sent the index up by as much as 0.2 percent. The company’s shares erased an earlier drop to turn as high as 4.1 percent before finishing the day unchanged at C$9.08.

That’s roughly in line with the $9 a share offered by a group led by Fairfax, its largest shareholder, in a tentative deal. The deal values BlackBerry at a 3.1 percent premium over its closing price last week.

The stock plunged 16 percent Sept. 20 after the company released second-quarter earnings on that fell short of analysts’ estimates. The Waterloo, Ontario-based company also said it’s cutting 4,500 jobs and taking a writedown of as much as $960 million for unsold inventory of its Z10 phone — a touch-screen device unveiled in January as its answer to the iPhone.

The acquirers will have six weeks to scrutinize BlackBerry’s books, a span in which the smartphone maker can seek other takeover offers. Fairfax, a financial services holding company, added 1.1 percent to C$420.45.

Wireless carriers rallied after the industry’s largest domestic players applied to bid in a wireless spectrum auction on Jan. 14, according to a list on Industry Canada’s website.

Rogers Communications, Canada’s largest wireless carrier, increased 1.2 percent to C$45.36 and BCE Inc. added 1.3 percent to C$44.51. Telus Corp. jumped 2.5 percent to C$35.44.

The roster of applicants doesn’t appear to include major foreign players. Verizon Communications Inc. said Sept. 3 it wouldn’t enter the Canadian market after saying earlier in the summer it was exploring the idea.

It’s “good for incumbents,” Greg MacDonald, an analyst in Toronto at Macquarie Capital Markets, said in an e-mail, referring to the three largest companies.

Financial firms advanced. National Bank rose 0.9 percent to C$85.78 and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce gained 0.8 percent to C$83.47. Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender, added 0.5 percent to C$66.26.

Materials producers declined as prices for metals from gold to copper slumped amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce fiscal stimulus, outweighing data from China showing a preliminary manufacturing index gauge climbed more than expected in September.

Iamgold Corp. retreated 4.2 percent to C$4.99 and Osisko Mining Corp. tumbled 5.6 percent to C$5.11. Silver Standard Resources Inc. dropped 7.5 percent to C$6.57.

Catamaran, a pharmacy benefits management company, slumped 3.5 percent to C$49.29, the lowest close since May. The stock has lost 14 percent since customer Walgreen Co. said on Sept. 17 it is moving staff into a private health exchange. Analysts with Morgan Stanley today lowered Catamaran’s rating to equal weight, the equivalent of a hold.

Agrium Inc., North America’s third-largest fertilizer producer, lost 3.1 percent to C$89.49, the biggest drop since July 30. The company said earnings will fall in its wholesale unit this quarter because of declines in sales volumes of as much as 30 percent compared with a year earlier.

Prices for potash, a major fertilizer used to strengthen crops, have declined since OAO Uralkali, the world’s biggest producer, pulled out of a trading venture with Belarus in July and said it would sell its product at a lower price.

US

By Lu Wang

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index having the longest retreat in a month, as financial shares slumped and investors watched speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policies.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. declined more than 2.7 percent as Atlantic Equities LLP forecast a drop in fixed-income trading revenue for the biggest U.S. banks.

Homebuilders slipped 1.6 percent as a group before Lennar Corp. and KB Home report earnings tomorrow. Apple Inc. surged 5 percent after saying first-weekend sales of its new iPhones topped 9 million units.

The S&P 500 retreated 0.5 percent to 1,701.84 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge has lost 1.4 percent over three days, giving back all its gains from the Fed’s unexpected move last week to maintain stimulus levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 49.71 points, or 0.3 percent, to 15,401.38.

About 5.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.

“At some point, investors are going to say, ‘What’s underpinning this strong rally? We need some solid numbers,’” Scott Armiger, chief investment officer at Christiana Trust in Wilmington, Delaware, said in a phone interview. The firm has $6 billion under administration. Fed policy makers “are trying to neutralize the market. This time Bernanke said no tapering and they’re all running out and saying ‘wait a minute, folks, don’t get carried away.’”

The S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent last week, touching a record high, as the Federal Open Market Committee said at its Sept. 17-18 meeting that it will continue to buy $85 billion of assets a month, surprising economists who had forecast a reduction. The S&P 500 has gained 6 percent for the quarter and is up 19 percent for the year.

The central bank has left its main interest rate near zero since December 2008 and has expanded its balance sheet to a record $3.66 trillion through three rounds of stimulus. The quantitative easing program has helped the S&P 500 surge more than 150 percent since March 2009.

The rally has pushed equities to their highest valuations in more than three years. At a record close on Sept. 18, the S&P 500 traded at 16.5 times reported earnings, a multiple not seen since May 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Three regional bank presidents spoke today. Fed Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said policy makers must “forcefully” push against economic headwinds as the U.S. has yet to show “any meaningful pickup” in momentum. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said monetary policy should focus on creating a more dynamic economy. Fed Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the central bank harmed its credibility with the decision last week.

The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent on Sept. 20 as Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said policy makers may decide to reduce their monthly bond purchases at the meeting in October.

“The more people who speak from the Fed in one day, the less clarity there is,” Richard Sichel, who oversees about $1.9 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said by phone. “People will be hanging at every word that’s said for more clues about our monetary policy.”

Even as investors focus on the Fed’s policies, a risk is rising from another corner of Washington. Hardening positions on the federal budget and borrowing limit, and recent political setbacks suffered by both President Barack Obama and Republican congressional leaders as they go into the fight, are raising the odds of a government shutdown, debt default or near-miss that could roil equities markets.

Forty percent of global investors surveyed in a Sept. 10 Bloomberg poll said they would pull back on U.S. markets in the event of a government shutdown, which many economists say would be less damaging than a debt default.

“We are in for another ugly confrontation,” said Howard Ward, the chief investment officer for growth equity at Rye, New York-based Gamco Investors Inc., which oversees about $40 billion. “Even though everyone knows the impasse will be short- lived, it is a sad reminder of how dysfunctional Washington has become. It will be a catalyst for taking profits after the recent run-up.”

Outside the U.S., German Chancellor Angela Merkel was re- elected yesterday, winning the biggest tally since Helmut Kohl’s post-reunification victory of 1990. In Asia, the preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index for Chinese manufacturing compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics climbed to 51.2 in September from 50.1 in August. That beat the 50.9 median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

U.S. equities will likely extend their declines this week, if history is any guide, after the Sept. 20 expiration in futures and options contracts, according to MacNeil Curry, a New York-based technical strategist at Bank of America Corp.

When the quarterly expiration process known as triple witching occurs in September, the following week has resulted in losses 68 percent of the time for the S&P 500 since equity index futures were created in 1982, according to a study by Curry. In the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has fallen 80 percent of the time in the week after September triple witching, averaging a decline of 1.9 percent, the data show.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, jumped 9.1 percent, the most since Aug. 27, to 14.31. The measure is still down 21 percent this year.

Seven of 10 S&P 500 industry groups declined, with financial shares falling 1.5 percent as a group for the largest drop. Utility and technology shares had the best performance, rising 1.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

The largest U.S. banks’ fixed-income trading revenue will probably fall 20 percent in the third quarter from a year ago on lower volumes, Richard Staite, an analyst at Atlantic Equities wrote in a note. Staite cut his estimate for Goldman Sachs’s per-share earnings 18 percent to $2.47 and Citigroup’s by 14 percent to $1.05.

Goldman Sachs slid 2.7 percent to $165.25 for the biggest retreat in the Dow. Citigroup sank 3.2 percent to $49.57.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. retreated 2.5 percent to $51.46 and Bank of America Corp. erased 2.1 percent to $14.14.

The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index declined 1.6 percent, with all 11 members falling. Lennar slid 1.7 percent to $34.54 while KB Home lost 3.4 percent to $17.03.

Lennar’s profit growth during the three months ended August probably slowed to 13 percent from 105 percent in the previous quarter while KB Home’s earnings may have increased 32 percent, less than half its pace in the previous quarter, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Apple jumped 5 percent, the most in the S&P 500 and its biggest gain since July 24, to $490.64. The company sold 9 million iPhone 5s and 5c models. That topped the 5 million in opening-weekend sales for last year’s model and surpassed analyst estimates that ranged from 6 million to 7.75 million, according to a Bloomberg poll.

Pandora Media Inc., the biggest web radio service, tumbled 10 percent to $24.26 after Apple said more than 11 million listeners have used iTunes Radio since its launch this year.

BlackBerry Ltd. added 1.1 percent to $8.82. The company entered a tentative agreement for a $4.7 billion buyout from a group led by its biggest shareholder, Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., forging a path to go private after a new line of smartphones failed to catch on.

Shares of BlackBerry fell as much as 6.1 percent earlier as Jefferies Group LLC lowered its rating on the shares to hold from buy, saying the handset business has a negative value. The stock tumbled 17 percent on Sept. 20 after the company posted quarterly sales that trailed analysts’ estimates by half and announced 4,500 job cuts.

General Electric Co. advanced 1.1 percent to $24.28 after winning contracts worth $2.7 billion from a unit of Sonelgaz, Algeria’s state-owned electricity and gas company. GE will supply heavy-duty gas turbines, steam turbines and generators for nine power plants, according to a statement.

Walgreen Co. added 1.3 percent to a record $56.23. Morgan Stanley boosted its rating on the drugstore chain to overweight from equal weight.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

A mind that is burdened with the past is a sorrowful mind.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

From even the greatest of horrors

irony is seldom absent.

-H.P. Lovecraft, 1890-1937


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

September 20, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

As Carolann is out of the office this afternoon, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf!

Last Thursday, here in Victoria we had a lightning storm that lit up the sky.  Did any of you have the chance to watch it?  I found some amazing pictures of the storm last Thursday that I wanted to share with you, as well as some fun facts on lighting!

  • There are bolts of lightning striking somewhere on Earth every second.
  • Lightning strikes usually last around 1 or 2 microseconds.
  • Lightning contains millions of volts of electricity.
  • Thunder is the sound caused by lightning.
  • The average temperature of lightning is around 20000 °C (36000 °F).
  • The study of lightning is known as fulminology.
  • Astraphobia is the fear of thunder and lightning.

Health is the greatest gift, contentment the greatest wealth, faithfulness the best relationship.Buddha

Photos of the Day –September 20th, 2013

The moon shines near the top of Tokyo SkyTree in Tokyo on the mid-autumn festival day. Kazunori Kasahara/Tokyo Shimbun/AP

Steam from the Verso paper mill is backlit by the light of the setting moon in this time-exposure in Bucksport, Maine. Verso makes coated papers used by publications such as catalogs and magazines. Robert F. Bukaty/AP

Market Closes for September 20th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15451.01 -185.54 

 

-1.19%

S&P 500 1710.52 -11.82 

 

-0.69%

NASDAQ 3774.728 -14.656 

 

-0.39%

TSX 12829.62 -97.16

 

-0.75%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14742.42 -23.76

 

-0.16%

 

HANG 

SENG

23502.51 +385.06

 

+1.67%

 

SENSEX 20263.71 -382.93

 

-1.85%

 

FTSE 100 6596.43 -28.96

 

-0.44%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.687 2.705
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.206 3.221
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.7374 2.7446
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.7649 3.7962

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97078 0.97416

 

US  

$

1.03010 1.02652
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.39332 0.71771
US 

$

1.35260 0.73932

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1325.60 1366.29
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 105.51 106.39
BRENT 109.360 109.360

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle and Eric Lam

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell for a second day as BlackBerry Ltd. plunged the most in three months and gold producers slumped after a Federal Reserve policy maker said a small tapering of bond buying is possible next month.

BlackBerry tumbled 16 percent after saying it will cut 4,500 jobs and record an inventory writedown of as much as $960 million after a new set of devices failed to catch on with consumers. Iamgold Corp. and Eldorado Gold Corp. retreated at least 7.7 percent as gold fell the most in 11 weeks. Goldcorp Inc. slid 3.8 percent after Chairman Ian Telfer agreed to pay a C$200,000 ($194,000) fine in a settlement over allegations that he violated securities laws.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Index fell 120.31 points, or 0.9 percent, to 12,806.47 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, paring a weekly gain of 0.7 percent. Trading volume was 117 percent higher than the 30-day average.

Once a quarter, futures and options for indexes and single stocks expire on the same day, leading to a phenomenon called quadruple witching, with increased volume as investors close out their positions.

A comment by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard “saying tapering could happen in October got people all nervous, and corresponding with that gold went lower,” said Brian Huen, managing partner with Red Sky Capital Management Ltd. in Toronto. His firm manages about C$220 million ($213.7 million). “The message is not clear, so there’s some nervousness out there.”

“There’s an index rebalancing happening as well as quadruple witching for options, so you’ll see some volatility at the close,” he said.

Bullard, a voter on policy this year who has backed the Fed’s bond buying, said today the decision not to taper stimulus was a close call and “small” cuts are possible next month.

Policy makers meet Oct. 29-30.

The benchmark Canadian equity gauge soared to a two-year high on Sept. 18 after the U.S. Fed said it will “await more evidence” for sustained economic recovery before reducing its $85 billion in monthly bond buying.

Iamgold plunged 11 percent to C$5.25 and Eldorado Gold sank 7.7 percent to C$7.15 as gold for December delivery tumbled 2.7 percent to $1,332.50 an ounce in New York, the biggest drop since July 5.

Gold stocks slumped 5.6 percent as a group, the worst decline in six weeks, as all 24 members of the S&P/TSX Gold Index retreated. Nine of 10 industries in the S&P/TSX fell.

BlackBerry, based in Waterloo, Ontario, plunged 16 percent to C$9.08, the most since June 28. The smartphone maker, which is evaluating a sale, expects to report a net operating loss of as much as $995 million for the fiscal second quarter, according to a statement today.

Sales in the quarter were about $1.6 billion, just more than half the $3.03 billion average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The company sold about 5.9 million smartphones in the quarter.

Goldcorp lost 3.8 percent to C$26.96. Telfer, the company’s chairman, was included in an Ontario Securities Commission statement of allegations in February 2012 regarding an alleged insider-trading scheme.

Telfer admitted his conduct fell below standards expected, Cullen Price, representing OSC staff, said at a hearing today in Toronto. In addition to paying a fine to the regulator, Telfer will be banned from arranging the right for people to buy shares in private placements for one year.

S&P Dow Jones Canadian Index Services said on Sept. 13 that it will make changes to the benchmark S&P/TSX at the close today. Additions include Air Canada, the nation’s largest air carrier, and NuVista Energy Ltd. Niko Resources Ltd. will be removed from the index.

Air Canada slid 2.4 percent to C$3.20 and NuVista slipped 4.9 percent to C$7.01. Niko lost 1.2 percent to C$4.07.

US

By Lu Wang and Jeff Sutherland

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell the most since August and Treasuries rose as concerns grew that political debate over government spending and potential Federal Reserve stimulus cuts may pose a threat to economic growth. Emerging- markets shares dropped and gold retreated the most in 11 weeks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.7 percent at 4 p.m. in New York for its biggest drop since Aug. 27. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.3 percent. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped two basis point to 2.73 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell after rallying 2.2 percent yesterday, as India’s banks drove a slump in financial shares.

The S&P GSCI Index slid 0.7 percent after gold declined 2.7 percent and silver had the biggest retreat in three months. Oil fell to a one-month low.

Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a small tapering of bond buying is possible next month after the central bank made a close call this week in deciding not to slow purchases. The Federal Open Market Committee said it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its $85 billion- a-month bond-buying program. The U.S. House voted to finance the federal government through mid-December and choke off funding for President Barack Obama’s health-care law, setting up a showdown with the Senate and the White House.

“It’s probably a little confusing to the market what’s coming out of the Fed,” John Kvantas, a San Antonio, Texas- based executive director who helps manage more than $16 billion at USAA Investments, said in a phone interview. “Maybe the Fed is trying to send a message that ‘yeah we didn’t taper, but it doesn’t mean we will never taper and maybe actually will taper still quite soon.’”

About 8.9 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the most since June 28, as futures and options contracts expire in a process known as quadruple witching. Announced index changes, including the addition of Visa Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Nike Inc. to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, take effect after the markets’ close. The operator of the S&P 500 also did its quarterly rebalancing of the index to adjust member weightings. The Dow tumbled 1.2 percent, the most since Aug. 15.

The S&P 500 rallied 1.3 percent this week and is up 4.7 percent for September, rebounding from its worst month since May 2012, after the central bank unexpectedly refrained from reducing monetary stimulus. The stimulus helped boost the equity index as much as 155 percent higher since March 2009. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs on Sept. 18 after the Fed’s announcement.

Bullard said today at the New York Association for Business Economics luncheon that he wants to see higher inflation before backing less accommodation from the central bank. Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who dissented at the last FOMC meeting, said at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research that the Fed needs credibility for markets to trust its guidance. Policy makers meet Oct. 29-30.

“Weaker data came in,” Bullard said earlier in the day on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Michael McKee. “That was a borderline decision,” and “the committee came down on the side of, ‘Let’s wait.’” With inflation low, Bullard said, “we can afford to be patient.”

Twenty-four of 41 economists surveyed Sept. 18-19 said the Fed will now wait until December before taking the first step in slowing its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, according to a Bloomberg survey. The median estimate in an Aug. 9-13 poll projected the Fed would begin paring at this week’s meeting.

Reports next week on data from second-quarter gross domestic product to consumer confidence and new home sales may help investors gauge the prospect of economic growth.

Investors are also watching the political wrangling over the approaching limit on federal spending. Government funding expires Oct. 1 and the Treasury is expected to exhaust its ability to borrow funds in mid-October, when it will hit the statutory debt limit. The White House said President Obama would veto the House bill. The Senate will consider its version of the funding measure next week.

“When you look at political uncertainty and a fight going forward and the government really faces a shutdown, I don’t know how that can be construed as a positive in markets’ mind,” Bill Schultz, chief investment officer who oversees about $1.1 billion at McQueen Ball & Associates in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, said by phone. “If anything, it just means potentially less economic activities.”

Microsoft Corp. and General Electric Co. slipped at least 1.8 percent to pace declines among large companies. Caterpillar Inc. slumped 3.4 percent after its global retail machine sales dropped for a ninth consecutive month. BlackBerry Ltd. plunged 17 percent after announcing 4,500 job cuts. AK Steel Holding Corp. sank 8 percent, leading declines among steelmakers, after predicting a third-quarter loss.

Utilities and phone companies, which offer the highest dividend payouts among 10 S&P 500 groups, had the largest drops.

Apple Inc. fell 1 percent as its iPhone 5s and 5c handsets went on sale.

Among Dow additions, Visa climbed 2.1 percent, Goldman Sachs added 1.2 percent and Nike lost 0.2 percent. They will replace Hewlett-Packard Co., which slipped 0.4 percent, and Alcoa Inc. and Bank of America Corp, which fell 1.8 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped 15 basis points this week, the most since the five days ended July 12. The rate, the benchmark for loans ranging from mortgages to corporate bonds, climbed to a two-year high of 3.01 percent on Sept. 6, from 1.93 percent on May 21, the day before Fed Chairman Ben S.

Bernanke said the central bank could slow the pace of asset purchases in the next few policy meetings.

Global equity funds attracted the largest inflows since at least 2005 in the week ended Sept. 18 as investors piled into stocks.

The funds lured a net $25.9 billion in the period, Wei Liang Chang, a foreign-exchange strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said by phone from Singapore today, citing data from EPFR Global. Developed markets posted $24.3 billion of inflows, while emerging-nation funds drew $1.6 billion, according to Chang.

The dollar rose versus most of its 16 biggest peers. The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.3523, ending a four-day run of gains. It dropped 0.2 percent to 134.35 yen.

Germany holds elections on Sunday to decide whether Chancellor Angela Merkel wins a third term. An INSA opinion poll in Germany published yesterday showed the opposition Social Democrats climbing one percentage point to 28 percent, 10 points behind Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led group.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index pared its gain for the week to 0.9 percent. Adidas AG fell 3 percent as the world’s second- largest maker of sporting goods cut its profit forecast. Direct Line Insurance Group Plc retreated 3.7 percent as Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc sold a 630 million-pound ($1 billion) stake in the U.K. insurer. Foxtons Group Plc surged 16 percent in London on the real estate broker’s first day of trading after its initial public offering.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell from a four-month high, dropping 0.9 percent to 1,013.18, led by Indian shares.

The gauge rose 2.7 percent this week. The measure’s 14-day relative strength index was at 69.6, falling below 70 for the first time in five days. The level of 70 indicates to some analysts a security has climbed too far too fast.

India’s benchmark Sensex Index tumbled 1.9 percent, the steepest drop in more than two weeks, after central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan surprised analysts by raising the benchmark interest rate in his first policy review. Lenders led the decline, with ICICI Bank Ltd. tumbling 4.7 percent. The rupee slid 0.8 percent against the dollar.

Rajan, who took office two weeks ago, boosted the repurchase rate by a quarter point to 7.5 percent. All 36 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey predicted no change.

Markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan were shut for holidays.

Turkey’s lira weakened 1.1 percent to 1.9815 against the dollar, trimming this week’s rally to 2.3 percent, the biggest gain since January 2012.

Gold declined the most since July 5, losing 2.7 percent to $1,332.50 an ounce. The metal climbed 1.8 percent this week.

Silver slumped 5.9 percent, the biggest drop since June 20, to $21.93 an ounce to lead declines among 24 raw materials in the S&P GSCI Index.

West Texas Intermediate oil dropped 1.6 percent to $104.67 a barrel after decreasing the same amount yesterday as Libya’s oil production expanded and President Bashar al-Assad said Syria will make information about its chemical weapons available.

Crude lost 3.3 percent for the week, the biggest five-day drop since June.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!!!

 

Be magnificent!

 

Being busy does not always mean real work. The object of all work is production or accomplishment and to either of these ends there must be forethought, system, planning, intelligence, and honest purpose, as well as perspiration. Seeming to do is not doing.
Thomas A. Edison


As ever,

 

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.

 

 

September 19, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1960, Chubby Checker’s record The Twist hit #1 on the music charts and launched a worldwide dance craze.

If you hear a voice within you say  ‘you cannot paint’ then by all means paint,  and that voice will be silenced. –Vincent Van Gogh.

And the day came when the risk it took to remain tight inside the bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom. –Anaïs Nin.

Photos of the day

Artists with their painted bodies and wearing tiger masks perform during the annual ‘Pulikali’ or Tiger Dance in Thrissur, in the southern Indian state of Kerala. Pulikali is a colorful recreational folk art revolving around the theme of tiger hunting, performed to entertain people during Onam, an annual harvest festival. Arun Sankar K./AP

Tourists look at a traditional yacht sailing on the Mediterranean Sea during the Regatta of Nice in southeastern France. The regatta, which has been held annually since 2008, aims to highlight the strong historical ties to yachting, which was introduced at the end of the 19th century, in the region./Lionel Cironneau/AP

Market Closes for September 19th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15636.55 -40.39 

 

-0.26%

S&P 500 1721.64 -3.88 

 

-0.22%

NASDAQ 3789.384 +5.743 

 

+0.15%

TSX 12924.83 -6.57 

 

-0.05% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14766.18 +260.82 

 

+1.80% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23502.51 +385.06 

 

+1.67% 

 

SENSEX 20646.64 +684.48 

 

+3.43% 

 

FTSE 100 6625.39 +66.57 

 

+1.01% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.705 2.684
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.221 3.192
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.7446 2.6878
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.7962 3.7471

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97416 0.97113 

 

US  

$

1.02652 1.02973
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.38890 0.71999
US 

$

1.35302 0.73909

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1366.29 1363.22
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 106.39 108.07
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell from a two- year high, as gold producers and financial stocks slid following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to unexpectedly maintain the pace of its bond buying program.

Barrick Gold Corp. dropped 2.7 percent even as precious metals prices rallied. Manulife Financial Corp. and Sun Life Financial Inc. lost more than 1.2 percent as the threat of depressed yields weighed on the insurers’ investment portfolios.

Catamaran Corp. advanced 2.9 percent after Cantor Fitzgerald LP said the stock’s 9 percent slide yesterday represents a buying opportunity.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Index fell 4.62 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 12,926.78 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, trimming an earlier decline of as much as 0.3 percent. The drop halted a four-day rally that left the gauge at its highest level since July 2011. Trading volume was 7 percent above the 30-day average.

“People had their fun yesterday, but at some point that tapering is going to start,” Gareth Watson, vice president of investment management and research at Richardson GMP Ltd., said in a phone interview from Toronto. His firm oversees C$15 billion ($14.6 billion). “Tapering was just postponed, it wasn’t canceled.”

The benchmark Canadian equity gauge soared yesterday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it will “await more evidence” for sustained economic recovery before reducing its $85 billion in monthly bond buying. The central bank stimulus has helped fuel a global rally in equities.

Yields on government bonds in the U.S. and Canada plunged yesterday after the Fed suggested short-term borrowing rates could remain near zero even if U.S. unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. The threat of cuts to the bond purchases had pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes to a two-year high.

Financial firms dropped 0.2 percent for a second day of declines, led lower by insurers. Manulife fell 2.4 percent to C$17.16 and Sun Life Financial lost 1.2 percent to C$32.88.

Insurers invest in bonds to back future obligations to policyholders and low yields can pressure profits.

Materials producers sank 1.6 percent, following the biggest rally in six weeks yesterday after gold surged the most in two years. While the metal continued its advance today, an index of gold producers slumped 2.7 percent.

Investors are “likely hesitant because they don’t have a lot of conviction in the longer-term sustainability of higher gold prices,” Watson said.

Nineteen of 24 members in the S&P/TSX Gold Index retreated after each advanced at least 1.3 percent yesterday. Barrick Gold, the world’s largest producer, dropped 2.7 percent to C$19.94. Novagold Resources Inc. plunged 7 percent to C$2.67.

Catamaran, a provider of pharmacy benefits management, gained 2.9 percent to C$53.44. Cantor Fitzgerald LP analyst Justin Kew called the worst slide since May “overly punitive.”

Walgreen Co., one of the company’s main customers, said late Sept. 17 it would switch employees into a private insurance exchange in 2014.

Health-care companies rallied 3.4 percent as a group for the biggest gain in the S&P/TSX. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. jumped 3.7 percent to a record C$108.92.

Niko Resources Ltd. jumped 8.7 percent to C$4.12, snapping a three-day slide as energy companies climbed. The Calgary-based oil and gas explorer lost 9.1 percent during the losing streak.

“The material sector moved very strongly yesterday, and I think energy is catching up to that,” Youssef Zohny, portfolio manager at Richardson GMP in Vancouver, said in a phone interview.

US

By Nick Taborek and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied to a record yesterday on the Federal Reserve’s decision to refrain from cutting stimulus as investors weighed the latest batch of economic reports.

ConAgra Foods Inc. lost 4 percent after first-quarter sales missed estimates. Walt Disney Co. dropped 2.1 percent as Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares. Apple Inc. gained 1.6 percent as the iPhone maker rose for the third straight day. Priceline.com Inc., the largest U.S. online travel agency by market value, closed above $1,000 for the first time. Rite Aid Corp. surged 23 percent as the drugstore chain raised its profit forecast.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent to 1,722.34 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 40.39 points, or 0.3 percent, to 15,636.55. About 6.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 13 percent above the three-month average.

“It’s been essentially a bleeding off of some of the party atmosphere from yesterday,” Kevin Caron, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $150 billion, said by phone. “At some point the market’s got to take a breather and I think today’s that day. There’s no real catalyst today in the data.”

The benchmark index climbed 1.2 percent to a record yesterday as the Fed unexpectedly refrained from reducing bond buying. Treasury yields have jumped since May, when Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke first outlined a possible timetable for a reduction in asset purchases.

The Federal Open Market Committee said it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its $85 billion- a-month bond-buying program, surprising economists who predicted a reduction in the plan. The Fed has held the main interest rate near zero since December 2008 and pushed its balance sheet to a record $3.66 trillion through three rounds of stimulus, helping send the S&P 500 155 percent higher since March 2009.

“To be fair to Bernanke, he set the conditions necessary for tapering and the conditions are not there,” Ross Yarrow, who sells U.S. equities to European investors for Robert W.

Baird & Co. in London, said in a phone interview today. That’s “not because of any particular deterioration but because, by talking about tapering, he already achieved an adjustment in yields,” Yarrow said.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed as high as 3.01 percent on Sept. 6 from 1.61 percent on May 1. They plunged 16 basis points yesterday to 2.69 percent.

Equity gauges whose performance some chart analysts consider predictive of stock market gains closed at records yesterday, including the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the Russell 2000 Index and the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index.

About 83 percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 rose above their average price over the past 50 days yesterday, and a quarter of them reached their highest levels in 52 weeks or more, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Both measures hit their highest since Aug. 1, a day before the benchmark index peaked and started a 4.6 percent retreat.

Some 136 S&P 500 stocks had their 14-day relative-strength index above 70 yesterday, the most since May 20, Bloomberg data show. RSI measures the degree to which gains and losses outpace each other and some analysts who watch charts to predict market moves consider a reading higher than 70 as indicating the stock has gained too far too fast.

Economic data today showed sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in August to the highest level in more than six years as buyers rushed to lock in interest rates before they rise further. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in September at the fastest pace since March 2011, a sign factories are picking up momentum.

Among other reports, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators increased 0.7 percent in August.

Jobless claims in the U.S. rose less than forecast last week as two states began working through a backlog of applications that were caused by computer-system changeovers.

The U.S. economy will expand 1.6 percent this year, at the slowest pace since the recession ended in 2009, and grow by 3 percent in 2015, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, which measures the degree to which economic data exceeded or missed projections, is at minus 0.01. It has fluctuated above and below zero since April, after reaching an 11-month high in February.

“People had their fun yesterday, but at some point that tapering is going to start,” Gareth Watson, vice president of investment management and research at Richardson GMP Ltd., said in a phone interview from Toronto. His firm oversees C$15 billion ($14.6 billion). “Tapering was just postponed, it wasn’t canceled.”

Investors are also watching the political wrangling over the approaching limit on federal spending. Government funding expires Oct. 1 and the Treasury is expected to exhaust its ability to borrow funds in mid-October, when it will hit the statutory debt limit.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, dropped 3.2 percent to 13.16, the lowest level since Aug. 14. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 23 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

Financial and consumer-staples shares had the biggest drops among 10 main groups in the S&P 500, losing more than 0.4 percent.

ConAgra fell 4 percent to $30.80. Revenue in the first quarter missed analysts’ predictions as consumer foods volume was lower than planned. General Mills Inc. slipped 2.6 percent to $48.83 after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the shares to market perform from outperform.

Walt Disney dropped 2.1 percent to $65.72. Morgan Stanley cut Disney to equalweight from overweight, its first downgrade of the shares in more than four years, saying the company’s growth now depends more on its creative success. Disney delayed the Pixar film “The Good Dinosaur” by 18 months, leaving the animation studio that produced “Toy Story” without an annual release for the first time since 2005.

Banks had the largest decline among 24 groups in the S&P 500, falling 1 percent. Zions Bancorporation fell 2.8 percent to $27.96 and KeyCorp retreated 3.9 percent to $11.60. Regional lenders had been rooting for the Fed to let interest rates rise, which would help bring relief to bankers who’ve seen lending margins squeezed and expenses pushed up by new technology and regulations.

Life insurer Lincoln National Corp. tumbled 3.7 percent to $42.21 and MetLife Inc. lost 3.2 percent to $47.08. Insurers invest in bonds to back future obligations to policyholders and low yields can pressure profits.

Mining companies declined even as gold continued to rally.

Newmont Mining Corp. retreated 3.5 percent to $29.78, after an 8.2 percent surge yesterday. Barrick Gold Corp. slid 3.3 percent to $19.44. Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent.

Yesterday’s 4.1 percent jump in the metal’s price was the biggest since June 2012.

Pier 1 Imports Inc. plunged 14 percent to $20.33. The home furnishings retailer cut its earnings forecast for the year after second-quarter profit fell short of analysts’ predictions.

Same-store sales increased 3.5 percent in the quarter, compared with the average analyst estimate of 6.5 percent.

Technology and industrial shares had the best performance among S&P 500 industries. Apple jumped 1.6 percent to $472.30.

The stock has rallied 4.9 percent over three days, after an 11 percent slide since the Sept. 10 introduction of the newest iPhones.

Priceline, the largest U.S. online travel agency by market value, added 0.6 percent to $1,000.62. It climbed to as much $1,001 in intraday trading yesterday, the first time a stock in the S&P 500 changed hands at a four-digit price, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which compiles the indicator.

Agilent Technologies Inc. increased 3.4 percent to $50.98 after announcing it will split into two public companies. One company will focus on life sciences, diagnostics and applied markets, retaining the Agilent name. The other will be comprised of Agilent’s current portfolio of electronic measurement products, according to a statement.

Rite Aid surged 23 percent to $4.58. The drugstore chain raised its annual profit and revenue forecasts after second- quarter results exceeded analyst estimates, helped by an increase in same-store pharmacy sales.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. advanced 1.3 percent to $17.43. The video game maker said first-day sales of “Grand Theft Auto V” topped $800 million worldwide, surpassing the record set by “Call of Duty: Black Ops II” last November.

Groupon Inc. gained 9 percent to $12.59. The daily deals provider was raised to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus & Co.

Tesla Motors Inc. climbed 7 percent to $177.92. Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said in a note the electric car maker is on track to “modestly” outperform margin expectations for the third quarter and raised his price target to $200 from $160.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Life is like a garden,  Quite naturally, leaves wither and flowers fade.

Only if we clear the decay of the past

then and there can we really enjoy the beauty of the new leaves and flowers.

Likewise, we must clear the murkiness of past bad experiences from our minds.

Life is remembrance in forgetfulness.

Forgive what ought to be forgiven; forget what ought to be forgotten.

Let us embrace life with renewed vigor…

We should be able to face every moment of life with renewed expectation, like a freshly blossomed flower.

Mata Amritanandamayi, 1953-


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Answer me in one word.

-Shakespeare, 1564-1616


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 18, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1917:

Alduous Huxley, who would one day write the novel Brave New World, is hired at Eton College. One of his students, Eric Blair, will later use the pen name George Orwell.

Also, on this day in…

1851, the New York Times was published for the first time.

1905, Greta Garbo was born.

1947, the US Air Force was established.

1970, Jimi Hendrix passed away from a drug overdose. The rock musician was 27 years old at the time of this death.

1971, Lance Armstrong was born.

1975, Patty Hearst was captured by the FBI after 19 months with the Symbionese Liberation Army.

Read more at History.com

Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength, while loving someone deeply gives you courage.  –Lao Tzu.

Photos of the day

A yacht sails along the Biryusa Gulf of the Yenisei River in the Siberian taiga area, south of Krasnoyarsk, September 17, 2013. Ilya Naymushin/Reuters

A worker mounts the logo on a rim at the serial production BMW i3 electric car in the BMW factory in Leipzig, Gerrmany. Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters

Market Closes for September 18th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15676.94 +147.21 

 

+0.95%

S&P 500 1725.52 +20.76 

 

+1.22%

NASDAQ 3783.641 +37.942 

 

+1.01%

TSX 12931.40 +97.29 

 

+0.76 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14505.36 +193.69 

 

+1.35% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23117.45 -63.07 

 

-0.27% 

 

SENSEX 19962.16 +158.13 

 

+0.80% 

 

FTSE 100 6558.82 -11.35 

 

-0.17% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.684 2.771
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.192 3.253
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.6878 2.8468
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.7471 3.8322

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97793 0.97113 

 

US  

$

1.02256 1.02973
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.38216 0.72351
US 

$

1.35166 0.73983

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1363.22 1309.60
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 108.07 105.42
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose to the highest in two years, as mining companies rallied after the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing the pace of its monthly bond buying.

Barrick Gold Corp. surged 8.6 percent as the metal jumped the most since 2009. Athabasca Oil Corp. soared 4.7 percent after oil extended a rally following the Fed decision. Catamaran Corp. plummeted 9 percent to lead health-care companies lower.

BlackBerry Ltd. sank 2.2 percent after a report said the smartphone maker may cut staff.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Index jumped 97.29 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,931.40 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, erasing an earlier decline of as much as 0.3 percent. The gauge has advanced 2.2 percent so far in September to close today at the highest level since July 2011.

“There is a wash of money on the sidelines, so people will be pushed into stocks as it goes higher and higher,” Paul Harris, partner and portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management in Toronto, said in a phone interview. He helps oversee C$300 million ($294 million). “Gold and oil and the metals going up will certainly help Canada. You’re seeing a great rally.”

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his policy making colleagues held back from paring record accommodation as rising borrowing costs show signs of slowing the four-year U.S. economic expansion. The stimulus has helped fuel a rally in global stocks.

Among 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, 33 predicted officials would will reduce monthly buying of Treasuries by $5 billion or less, with 31 forecasting a cut of $10 billion or more.

Five of 10 main groups in the benchmark Canadian equity gauge advanced, led by a 5.1 percent rally among raw-materials producers.

The S&P/TSX Materials Index erased an earlier decline of as much as 1 percent as metals surged on the Fed decision. All ten of the Canadian benchmark index’s top performers were miners of precious metals.

Gold for immediate delivery rallied 4.1 percent for the biggest gain since January 2009. Copper futures rose the most in two weeks and silver surged 5.9 percent at 4:35 p.m.

Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, soared 8.6 percent to C$20.50, its biggest jump since 2008. Aurico Gold Inc. rose 15 percent to C$4.54. Endeavor Silver Corp. jumped 15 percent to C$5.14.

Goldcorp Inc. rose 7.5 percent to $29.11, erasing an earlier loss after Chairman Ian Telfer reached a deal with Canada’s main financial regulator to settle allegations that he violated securities laws. The Ontario Securities Commission will hold a hearing on Sept. 20 on whether to approve the settlement, the OSC said yesterday in a statement.

Energy producers gained 0.5 percent as crude advanced the 2.5 percent, the most in three weeks. Athabasca Oil rose 4.7 percent to C$7.85, the stock’s highest price in over a month.

Catamaran, a provider of pharmacy benefits management, fell 9 percent to C$51.94, the lowest since July 17. Walgreen Co., one of the company’s main customers, said yesterday it would switch its employees into a private insurance exchange in 2014.

Goldman Sachs & Co. analyst Robert Jones said the impact to PBMs from the Walgreen move is “unclear.”

BlackBerry plunged 2.2 percent to C$10.64, erasing an earlier gain of as much as 2 percent. The stock reversed after Dow Jones reported the smartphone maker was preparing for “deep” staff cuts by the end of the year, citing people familiar with the situation. The shares rallied earlier on news the company would start selling a new version of its phone next week.

US

By Nick Taborek and Lu Wang

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to a record after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing bond buying, emboldening bulls who have enjoyed a 155 percent rally since stimulus began five years ago.

Utilities rallied the most out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 as investors snapped up high dividend-yielding equities. Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest gold miner, jumped at least 8.2 percent to pace gains among commodity companies. An index of homebuilders soared 6 percent to the highest level since July. FedEx Corp. rose 5 percent after earnings topped estimates.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.2 percent to 1,725.52 at 4 p.m. in New York, erasing an earlier decline of as much as 0.3 percent. The benchmark index climbed above its all-time high of 1,709.67 reached Aug. 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 147.21 points, or 1 percent, to 15,676.94, also a record. Treasuries and gold rallied while the dollar slid. About 7.4 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the most since June 28.

“Everyone was a little stupefied,” Erik Davidson, deputy chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank,  which oversees $170 billion, said by phone. “It’s great to own stocks when we’re at these great levels. When money’s going to continue to be free for a while, it all plays into the valuations.”

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his policy making colleagues refrained from paring record accommodation as rising borrowing costs show signs of slowing the four-year expansion. Treasury yields have jumped since May, when Bernanke first outlined a possible timetable for a reduction in the asset purchases.

“The Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today at the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington. While “downside risks” to the outlook have diminished, “the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement.”

The FOMC has been debating how to scale back its $85 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage debt aimed at stoking economic growth and reducing unemployment that was 7.3 percent in August. The Fed has held the main interest rate near zero since December 2008 and pushed its balance sheet to a record $3.66 trillion through three rounds of bond buying.

“What they’re basically saying is ‘Look, we’re not tapering yet, but we’re planning to taper pretty soon,’” said Michael Strauss, who helps oversee about $25 billion of assets as chief investment strategist and chief economist at Commonfund Group in Wilton, Connecticut.

Among 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, 33 predicted the Fed would reduce its buying of Treasuries by $5 billion or less, with 31 forecasting a cut of $10 billion or more.

The central bank’s stimulus program has helped the S&P 500 rally 155 percent from its March 2009 low. Speculation over the future of quantitative easing has whipsawed global asset prices since May. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest record last month, then slumped as much as 4.6 percent before climbing again.

U.S. stocks volume surged after the Fed’s announcement.

About 552 million shares traded on all exchanges in the 10 minutes after 2 p.m., compared with 113 million in the preceding 10 minutes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, dropped 6.5 percent to 13.59, the lowest level since Aug. 14. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 20 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index jumped 1.5 percent to an all-time high. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, which tracks shares in companies whose earnings are closely tied to economic growth, advanced 1.4 percent to a record. The Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 1.3 percent to its highest level since November 2000.

All 10 main S&P 500 groups advanced at least 0.4 percent.

Utilities rallied 3 percent as Treasury yields sank and investors increased purchases of high dividend-yielding shares.

Utility stocks pay 4 percent in dividends for the second-biggest payout among S&P 500 groups.

An S&P index of 11 homebuilding stocks rallied 6 percent after declining as much as 1.4 percent before the Fed statement.

Housing starts rose 0.9 percent to a 891,000 annual rate, following the prior month’s 883,000 pace that was weaker than previously estimated, the data showed. The median estimate of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 917,000. Permits dropped 3.8 percent.

D.R. Horton Inc. jumped 6.9 percent to $21.33. Lennar Corp. climbed 6.5 percent to $37.33. PulteGroup Inc. added 5.5 percent to $17.93.

Raw-materials stocks surged 2.3 percent. Newmont Mining, the largest U.S. gold producer, surged 8.2 percent to $30.87 and Barrick Gold jumped 9.7 percent to $20.11. Gold rallied the most since 2009, erasing an earlier decline after the Fed decision as the metal’s attractiveness as a store of value increased.

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., the largest U.S. iron-ore producer, added 4.7 percent to $23.49.

FedEx rallied 5 percent to $116.25, the highest level since 2007. The company, regarded as an economic bellwether because of the variety of goods it ships globally, began taking steps last year to reduce costs by $1.7 billion as customers opt for cheaper shipping. FedEx is parking older planes sooner, trimming capacity to Asia and eliminating 3,600 jobs through buyouts.

Adobe Systems Inc. rallied 9.2 percent to $52.58. The largest maker of graphic-design tools said the number of Web subscribers jumped 47 percent in the fiscal third quarter, even as sales and profit declined.

The results are validating the strategy of Chief Executive Officer Shantanu Narayen to push the maker of Photoshop and Illustrator software deeper into Internet services. While that’s crimping near-term revenue and profit, the transition to a suite of online tools called Creative Cloud positions Adobe for more predictable growth in the future, according to Josh Olson, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co.

WellPoint Inc. lost 4.4 percent to $84.39 and Health Net Inc. fell 0.9 percent to $33.34. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Justin Lake said the two companies would be most affected by any delay in the start of open enrollment in new health-care exchanges mandated by the Affordable Care Act.

UnitedHealth Group Inc. lost 1.7 percent to $73.04 for the only decline in the Dow.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

You are never alone because you are full of all the memories, all the conditioning,

all the mutterings of yesterday; your mind is never clear of all the rubbish it has accumulated.

To be alone, you must die to the past.

When you are alone, totally alone, not belonging to any family, any nation, any culture,

any particular continent, there is that sense of being an outsider.

The man who is completely alone in this way is innocent and it is this innocence that frees the mind from sorrow.

-Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

We live, not as we wish to, but as we can.

-Menander, c. 341-c. 290 BC


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

September 17, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 2001, the U.S. stock market reopened for the first time following the 9/11 attacks, ending the longest shutdown on Wall Street since the Great Depression. The Dow fell 684 points, which at the time was the worst one-day point drop in history.  -Steven Russolillo, WSJ.

This week also marks the 5th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers on  September 15th, 2008, which triggered the global financial crises.

As soon as questions of will or decision or reason or choice of action arise, human science is at a loss. –Noam Chomsky.

Photos of the day

Ben McCann, 11, and John Schunk, (r.) fish for rainbow trout on a dock at the east end of Sand Lake as the sun sets on Monday, Sept. 16th, in Anchorage, Alaska. Dan Joling/AP

An Indian devotee takes a picture of an idol of elephant-headed Hindu god Ganesha as it is lifted to be immersed in the Hussain Sagar Lake during Ganesh Chaturthi festival celebrations in Hyderabad, India. The festival is celebrated to mark the birth of Ganesha, the Hindu God of wisdom, prosperity and good fortune. Mahesh Kumar A./AP

Market Closes for September 17th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15529.73 +34.95 

 

+0.23%

S&P 500 1704.76 +7.16 

 

+0.42%

NASDAQ 3745.699 +27.853 

 

+0.75%

TSX 12834.11 +17.23 

 

+0.13 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14311.67 -93.00 

 

-0.65% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23180.52 -71.89 

 

-0.31% 

 

SENSEX 19804.03 +61.56 

 

+0.31% 

 

FTSE 100 6570.17 -52.69 

 

-0.80% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.771 2.779
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.253 3.273
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.8468 2.8624
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8322 3.8658

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97113 0.96885 

 

 

US  

$

1.02973 1.03216
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37546 0.72703
US 

$

1.33575 0.74864

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1309.60 1311.79
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 105.42 106.59
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose a third day, after gaining the most in two weeks yesterday, as rising technology shares offset a slump in oil producers before a U.S. Federal Reserve policy statement tomorrow.

Wi-Lan Inc. rose 3.6 percent to lead technology stocks higher. Rockwell Diamonds Inc. soared the most in four years after the company found four rough diamonds of at least 100 carats. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Agrium Inc. fell more than 1.5 percent after a rival producer cut its quarterly forecast for fertilizer sales and prices.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 17.23 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,834.11 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has added 1.4 percent in September. Trading volume was in line with the 30-day average.

“There’s a lot of wait-and-see attitude in front of the Fed meetings tomorrow, there’s not a ton of conviction,” said Bob Decker, a fund manager with Aurion Capital Management, in an interview from Toronto. His firm manages about C$6 billion ($5.8 billion). “There’s a large amount of cash on the sidelines that could be convinced to move once the uncertainty surrounding tapering is removed.”

The Fed began a two-day meeting to weigh potential reductions in the rate of its monthly bond buying. The stimulus has helped fuel a global rally in equities.

Factory sales rose 1.7 percent to C$49.5 billion in July, the fastest in five months, on gains for commodities producers from crude to lumber and fabricated metals. The increase exceeded all 18 economist forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

In China, foreign-direct investment grew 0.6 percent last month, compared with the Bloomberg estimate of 12.5 percent growth.

Eight of 10 main groups in the benchmark gauge advanced today, led by a 1.5 percent gain among technology stocks. Energy stocks fell the most, sliding 0.3 percent.

Element Financial Corp., the top-performing company in the S&P/TSX Financials Index this year with a 91 percent gain, added 1 percent to a record C$13.55.

Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender, rose 0.6 percent to C$66.32 and Toronto-Dominion Bank added 0.5 percent to C$91.43. Financial stocks added 0.3 percent as a group.

Wi-Lan increased 3.6 percent to C$3.75, extending a three- day rally to 12 percent. BlackBerry Ltd., the Waterloo, Ontario- based smartphone maker, rose 2 percent to C$10.88.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. climbed 1.3 percent to C$105.83, the highest close in a month, after Gary Nachman with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. initiated coverage of the drugmaker with a buy rating.

Energy producers slid, halting a three-day winning streak.

Crude fell to the lowest level in almost four weeks as a U.S. agreement with Russia to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons reduced supply risk and on speculation that the Federal Reserve will start tapering stimulus measures.

Niko Resources Ltd., an oil and gas exploration company, dropped 5.3 percent to C$3.91. Bankers Petroleum Ltd. lost 2.4 percent to C$3.74.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan fell 2 percent to C$33.39 and Agrium retreated 1.5 percent to C$93.46. Mosaic Co., North America’s second-largest fertilizer producer, cut its quarterly forecast for potash and phosphate sales and prices because crop- nutrient markets have “softened.”

Global fertilizer markets have weakened, in part, because of fertilizer distributors’ cautiousness related to the breakup of Belarusian Potash Co., Mosaic said in a statement. On July 30, OAO Uralkali, the world’s largest potash producer, quit Belarusian Potash, the largest trader of the crop nutrient, because of a dispute with its partner Belaruskali.

“Dealers are cautious and are deferring purchases,” Jim Prokopanko, Mosaic’s chief executive officer, said in the statement.

Rockwell Diamonds jumped 45 percent to 42 Canadian cents, the most since June 2009, after announcing it has recovered four rough diamonds, one as large as 169 carats, from its operations in the Middle Orange River region in South Africa. The stones will be sold into a joint venture with Steinmetz Diamonds at market value, the company said in a statement.

US

By Nick Taborek and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward a record high, as Microsoft Corp. announced a $40 billion buyback and Federal Reserve policy makers gathered for a two-day policy meeting.

Microsoft increased 0.4 percent, pacing a rally among technology shares, as the world’s largest software maker also raised its quarterly dividend 22 percent. Safeway Inc. rallied 11 percent after adopting a poison-pill to protect against a potential hostile takeover. Mosaic Co. sank 1.2 percent after the fertilizer producer cut its quarterly forecast for potash and phosphate sales and prices.

The S&P 500 added 0.4 percent to 1,704.76 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark index is less than five points below its record high of 1,709.67 reached on Aug. 2. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index, which strips out biases related to market value, jumped 0.5 percent to a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 34.95 points, or 0.2 percent, to 15,529.73 today.

About 5.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 14 percent below the three-month average.

“Everybody’s looking forward to tomorrow to see what the Fed’s statement is going to be,” Jerry Braakman, the chief investment officer of First American Trust in Santa Ana, California, said by phone. His firm oversees $1 billion. “With inflation being benign, it doesn’t require a more aggressive tightening than the market would expect.” Large buyback plans are “returning capital to the market, which helps propel it to new highs,” he said.

The Federal Open Market Committee will probably lower its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases by $10 billion, according to the median response of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey this month. That’s down from the forecast of a $20 billion reduction in a July survey. The central bank’s stimulus program has helped the S&P 500 rally more than 150 percent from its March 2009 low.

Growing speculation about stimulus cuts has whipsawed stocks since May, when Fed officials first indicated reductions could start this year. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest all-time high before slumping as much as 4.6 percent from that level.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent to a six-week high yesterday after tensions over dealing with Syria’s chemical weapons eased and Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to be Fed chairman. The former Treasury secretary would tighten policy more than Janet Yellen, the current Fed vice chairman who was his main rival to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, analysts and traders last week.

A Labor Department report today showed the cost of living in the U.S. rose less than forecast in August, a sign it will take time for inflation to reach the Fed’s goal. Central bankers have said they are watching prices to ensure the U.S. doesn’t slip into a long period of diminishing increases, or disinflation, that damages the expansion.

In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, investor confidence increased for a second month in September. Foreign-direct investment in China rose 0.6 percent last month, trailing the median estimate of 12.5 percent growth in a Bloomberg survey.

Nine out of 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 rose, as industrial, consumer-discretionary and technology shares added at least 0.5 percent to pace gains. The Russell 2000 Index advanced 1 percent to an all-time high.

The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, rose 1 percent to 14.53. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 15 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

Microsoft increased 0.4 percent to $32.93. The repurchase program, which has no expiration date, replaces another $40 billion buyback plan that was due to lapse at the end of this month, Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft said in a statement.

The company’s dividend will rise 22 percent to 28 cents a share.

After struggling to keep up with rivals in the smartphone and tablet markets, Microsoft is retooling its strategy and seeking a new chief executive officer. The company has come under pressure from activist investor ValueAct Holdings LP, which pushed Microsoft to return more money to shareholders, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The size of the buyback eclipses most repurchase programs, though it’s smaller than the $50 billion plan announced by Apple Inc. in April. Authorized U.S. buybacks have reached a six-year high of $556 billion this year, data from Birinyi Associates Inc. show. Buyback authorizations have increased 58 percent this year compared with the same period in 2012, Birinyi data through Sept. 13 show.

“The news today is indicative of the trend we’ve seen all year, simply because companies are taking the low rates, borrowing some money, taking the cash, putting it to work,” John Canally, investment strategist for LPL Financial LLC in Boston, said in a phone interview. He helps manage $396.7 billion. “Companies have to find a way to be more efficient with their capital. Companies have to be able to generate earnings in a world where you’re getting relatively low growth.”

Safeway surged 11 percent to $30.99 for the biggest rise in the S&P 500. The grocery store chain adopted a shareholder rights plan to thwart any unfriendly takeovers, saying an undisclosed purchaser has accumulated a “significant amount” of stock.

An S&P 500 index of homebuilders advanced 0.4 percent. KB Home rose 0.6 percent to $17.27 and Lennar Corp. increased 0.8 percent to $35.04.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index registered 58 this month, matching August’s revised reading as the strongest since November 2005, a report from the Washington-based group showed today. Readings greater than 50 mean more builders view conditions as good than poor.

US Airways Group Inc. climbed 3.6 percent to $18.72 and Delta Air Lines Inc. advanced 0.7 percent to $23.32. The two airlines were each raised to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Broadcom Corp. gained 2 percent to $27.45. The chipmaker was raised to positive from neutral by Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Christopher Caso.

Mosaic, North America’s second-largest fertilizer producer, lost 1.2 percent to $45. Global fertilizer markets have weakened, in part, because of fertilizer distributors’ cautiousness related to the breakup of Belarusian Potash Co., Mosaic said in a statement. On July 30, OAO Uralkali, the world’s largest potash producer, quit Belarusian Potash, the largest trader of the crop nutrient, because of a dispute with its partner Belaruskali.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. fell 1.7 percent to $32.45 and Agrium Inc. retreated 1.3 percent to $90.69.

Outerwall Inc., owner of the Redbox DVD kiosks, dropped 12 percent to $49.49 after cutting its third-quarter and full-year forecasts because of discounts and shorter rentals.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

What is change?

One form appears, and another disappears.

Can we say that the butterfly used to be a caterpillar?

A substance in the caterpillar takes on the form of the butterfly.

Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974


As ever,

 

Carolann


Ocean, who is the source of all.

-Homer, c800 BCE-c701 BCE

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 16, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

We were down in San Francisco on the weekend to see a few of the America’s Cup races.  It is amazing to watch the speeds of these catamarans.  At one point, Emirates reached a speed of 58 MPH.  Today was a day off, but the racing continues tomorrow.  Oracle needs to win 9 more races, the Kiwis, just two to win the cup.  Attached is one of the photos I took with my mobile from the water.

The New Zealanders have a pop-up restaurant docked at Pier 29 until December.  It’s the Waiheke Island Yacht Club and its styled like a New Zealand beach house.  Executive chef Desmond Harris, who heads up Auckland’s acclaimed Clooney restaurant brings a Kiwi influence to the menu.  We had lamb and we both agree it was the best lamb we ever had.  Waihekeislandyachtclub.com.

Also, The Legion of Honor museum in Lincoln Park has  a fantastic exhibit on  how the new recreational sport of sailing influenced impressionists in the mid-nineteenth century and post-impressionists.  They have assembled an impressive collection of masters such as Claude Monet, Manet,  Renoir, Seurat’s, and many others from museums and private collections.  Definitely worth the visit.  There are a few model boats too.

Apparently there is nothing that cannot happen today.  –Mark Twain

Photos of the day

Ruth Duccini (c.) 95, who portrayed the Munchkin Town Lady in the classic film ‘The Wizard of Oz,’ poses with costumed characters from the film the Tin Man (l.) and Cowardly Lion at the world premiere screening of ‘The Wizard of Oz’ in IMAX 3D at the grand opening of the TCL Chinese Theatre IMAX in Hollywood, California September 15th. Fred Prouser /Reuters

The Costa Concordia ship lies on its side on the Tuscan Island of Giglio, Italy. Engineers succeeded in wresting the hull of the shipwrecked Costa Concordia from the Italian reef where it has been stuck since it capsized in January 2012, leaving them cautiously optimistic they can rotate the luxury liner upright and eventually tow it away. Andrea Sinibaldi/Lapresse/AP

Market Closes for September 16th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15494.78 +118.72 

 

+0.77%

S&P 500 1697.60 +9.61 

 

+0.57%

NASDAQ 3717.846 -4.338 

 

-0.12%

TSX 12816.88 +93.48 

 

+0.73 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14404.67 +17.40 

 

+0.12% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23252.41 +337.13 

 

+1.47% 

 

SENSEX 19742.47 +9.71 

 

+0.05% 

 

FTSE 100 6622.86 +39.06 

 

+0.59% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.779 2.764
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.273 3.247
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.8624 2.8846
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8658 3.8349

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96885 0.96590 

 

US  

$

1.03216 1.03530
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37661 0.72642
US 

$

1.33372 0.74978

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1311.79 1322.12
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 106.59 108.60
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose the most in two weeks as financial firms and metals producers rallied after Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to be U.S. Federal Reserve chairman and tensions over Syria eased.

Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce added at least 0.7 percent to lead financial stocks to the highest close in more than five years. Semafo Inc. and Rio Alto Mining Ltd. jumped at least 6 percent as gold futures gained for the first time in five days. Wi-Lan Inc. soared 6.8 percent after settling pending patent litigations with Alcatel- Lucent USA Inc.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 93.48 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,816.88 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the most since Aug. 29. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has risen 3.1 percent this year.

Summers, former U.S. Treasury secretary and economic adviser to President Barack Obama, was considered the top candidate alongside Fed vice chairman Janet Yellen to succeed Ben S. Bernanke as head of the central bank.

“Yellen is probably the one who will be put in, they might wait until she gets appointed before they make any moves,” said John Kinsey, fund manager with Caldwell Securities Ltd. in Toronto. The firm manages about C$1 billion ($971 million).

“Gold is oversold, and it’s getting a little bit of relief today. We’re in kind of a bull trend here and it’s not surprising we’re up. New York’s having a good run here and we’re tagging along.”

Investors are debating the speed at which the Fed will taper its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, perhaps as soon as this week’s meeting of policy makers beginning on Tuesday.

Rio Alto climbed 6 percent to C$2.29 and Semafo surged 8.8 percent to C$2.10. Gold for December delivery advanced 0.7 percent to $1,317.80 an ounce in New York, snapping four days of declines.

Dream Unlimited Corp. jumped 7.7 percent to C$11.80 as financial stocks gained 1 percent as a group for the highest close since December 2007. All 10 industries in the S&P/TSX advanced.

Toronto-Dominion, the second-largest lender in Canada, gained 1.2 percent to C$91.02 and CIBC rose 0.7 percent to C$81.73 after the two lenders agreed to a deal to split up the latter’s credit-card portfolio.

CIBC will receive about C$3 billion cash, along with an upfront C$200 million, from Toronto-Dominion and Aimia Inc. in exchange for about half of its Aerogold Visa card balances.

Aimia, a loyalty-card operator, picked Toronto-Dominion last month as its primary card partner after a two-decade long relationship with CIBC.

Aimia surged 7.3 percent to C$17.85, for a five-year high.

Encana Corp. retreated 1.8 percent to C$18.29 and Athabasca Oil Corp. slipped 2.3 percent to C$7.39 as crude declined to a three-week low. The U.S. and Russia struck a deal on Sept. 14 demanding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014, with the U.S. saying it maintained a military option to ensure compliance.

Torex Gold Resources Inc. increased 0.7 percent to C$1.50 after the gold exploration company reported initial resources from its Media Luna project in Mexico.

“The resource came in at the upper end of expectations,” said Daniel Earle, analyst with TD Securities, said in a note to clients.

Wi-Lan soared 6.8 percent to C$3.62 after granting a multi- year license for some of its wireless products patents to Alcatel-Lucent. Under a separate agreement, Wi-Lan will also acquire a portfolio of patents from Alcatel-Lucent.

CGI Group Inc., Canada’s largest technology company, jumped 5.5 percent to C$35.37, the most in six weeks, after Standard & Poor’s Dow Jones Canadian Index Services added the stock to the S&P/TSX 60 Index.

The addition, effective Sept. 20, is expected to trigger 8 million shares of buying interest in the Montreal-based technology services company, said Thanos Moschopoulos, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, in an e-mail to Bloomberg.

US

By Nick Taborek, Wes Goodman and Adam Haigh

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a five-week high and within 1 percent of a record, after Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to be Federal Reserve chairman and tensions over dealing with Syria’s chemical weapons eased.

Boeing Co. rallied 3.9 percent to pace gains among industrial shares after Sterne Agee & Leach Inc. raised its price target. PulteGroup Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. climbed at least 3.6 percent as housing stocks surged. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. added 3.6 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. advised investors to buy the shares. Packaging Corp. of America jumped 11 percent after it agreed to buy Boise Inc. for about $1.27 billion. Apple Inc. fell 3.2 percent, continuing its slide since introducing the latest iPhone on Sept. 10.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.6 percent to 1,697.60 at 4 p.m. in New York, after earlier rising as much as 1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 118.72 points, or 0.8 percent, to 15,494.78. About 5.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 4.5 percent below the three- month average.

“I don’t think the market knew what kind of a Fed chairman Summers would be, and having him out of the running makes things look a lot more certain,” Colleen Supran, a principal of Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough in San Francisco, which manages $2.7 billion, said in a phone interview. “This tapering announcement that’s expected for Wednesday seems to be accepted by the markets. It’s probably going to be modest.”

Summers withdrew from contention before a two-day Fed meeting starting tomorrow. The former Treasury secretary would tighten policy more than Janet Yellen, who was his main rival to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, analysts and traders last week.

Summers, 58, was one of three names that Obama had mentioned as possible replacements for Bernanke, whose term as Fed chairman ends on Jan. 31. Yellen, 67, the current Fed vice chairman, was also on Obama’s candidate list along with Donald Kohn, 70, a former Fed vice chairman, the president said earlier.

The S&P 500 rose 2 percent last week and today came within five points of its record high of 1,709.67 on Aug. 2. The benchmark gauge has rallied nine of 10 sessions this month, rising 4 percent to rebound from the worst monthly loss since May 2012, as reports showed China’s economy strengthened and the U.S. looked less likely to attack Syria.

The U.S. and Russia struck a deal on Sept. 14 demanding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014, with the U.S. saying it maintained a military option to ensure compliance.

Economists expect the U.S. central bank to reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying by $10 billion this week, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The stimulus has helped the S&P 500 rally more than 150 percent from its March 2009 low.

Investors have been closely watching data to determine the timing and pace of any Fed stimulus reductions. A report today showed manufacturing in the New York region expanded less than forecast in September even as orders and shipments picked up.

Separate data showed industrial production rose in August by the most in six months, indicating U.S. manufacturing will contribute more to the expansion.

Growing speculation about stimulus cuts has whipsawed stocks since May, when Fed officials first indicated reductions could start this year. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest all-time high before slumping as much as 4.6 percent from that level.

“Summers had been seen as a person who can add volatility to the market given his bias toward more aggressive tightening, should he take up the Fed chairmanship,” Gary Dugan, the Singapore-based chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East at Coutts & Co., said in a telephone interview. “This brings Janet Yellen to the forefront and the consensus is she’ll build a follow-through of Bernanke’s policies.”

Options traders have scaled back hedges against potential stock losses. The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, last week capped an 11 percent five-day drop, its biggest weekly slide since the week ended July 5. The gauge advanced 1.6 percent to 14.38 today.

The S&P 500 pared its gain around 1:40 p.m. as U.S. options exchanges halted trading for about an hour after reporting a malfunction with the industry data feed for disseminating prices. CBOE Holdings Inc., NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. and Bats Global Markets Inc. reported shutdowns that were later resolved.

The interruption occurred days after securities regulators told market operators to find ways to make their systems more reliable. In a meeting with the heads of major U.S. securities markets last week, Mary Jo White, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, urged the executives to shore up price feeds in serving investors and traders.

Nine of 10 main groups in the S&P 500 advanced, with industrial companies, materials producers and financial firms rising at least 1.1 percent. About 19 percent of companies in the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high today, the most since Aug. 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Boeing surged 3.9 percent to a record $115.67 for the biggest rise in the Dow. Sterne Agee analyst Peter Arment said the aerospace company is a “must-own stock” among large industrials and raised his price target to $164 from $120.

Delta Air Lines Inc. jumped 3 percent to $23.15 to pace gains in an gauge of air carriers. The Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index rose 1.9 percent to the highest level since Aug. 2. The measure has rallied 55 percent this year.

Financial shares rallied 1.1 percent as all but three of an S&P index’s 81 members advanced. Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. home lender, climbed 1.7 percent to $42.89. Travelers Cos. gained 1.2 percent to $84.57.

Bristol-Myers, the maker of the Eliquis blood thinner and the Bydureon diabetes treatment, rose 3.6 percent to $45.14.

JPMorgan raised its recommendation for the stock to overweight, a rating similar to buy, from neutral.

A team of JPMorgan analysts led by Chris Schott forecast the drugs company’s earnings may grow by an average 13 percent through 2020, driven by its forthcoming products. The analysts increased their price estimate for the shares to $52 from their earlier prediction of $50.

Packaging Corp. jumped 11 percent to $60.43. The fourth- largest U.S. producer of corrugated shipping boxes agreed to pay $12.55 for each Boise share, 26 percent more than Boise’s Sept. 13 closing prices. The deal includes $714 million in debt. Boise rallied 26 percent to $12.56, an all-time high.

Whole Foods Market Inc. added 1.1 percent to a record $57.71. The shares have advanced 12 straight days, the longest winning streak in the stock’s history. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. also extended its record rally to 12 days, rising 1.5 percent to $39.79. The world’s second-largest cruise-line operator, under pressure from its largest shareholder, doubled its quarterly dividend on Sept. 11.

An S&P gauge of homebuilders surged 2.1 percent. D.R. Horton jumped 3.7 percent to $19.84 and PulteGroup gained 3.8 percent to $17.14. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes retreated two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.86 percent.

Apple Inc. fell 3.2 percent to $450.12 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The stock has fallen 11 percent since the day before the world’s most valuable technology company introduced a new, lower-cost version of the iPhone.

Technology stocks were the only group to retreat in the S&P 500, sliding 0.3 percent. Hewlett-Packard Co. dropped 1.5 percent to $21.74 for the Dow’s steepest slide.

Citigroup Inc. expects the S&P 500 to rally 12 percent to 1,900 by the end of next year as valuations rise and investors pour money into mutual funds.

Tobias Levkovich, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said he favors shares of larger companies over smaller ones because foreigners will boost U.S. holdings and may prefer to buy well-known stocks. Computer makers, health-care providers and consumer discretionary stocks will outperform, he said.

“There is plenty of dry powder to push share prices higher as confidence returns,” Levkovich said in a Sept. 13 note. “A shift toward growth stocks seems appropriate along with large- cap names especially if foreign money moves into U.S. markets.”

The dollar depreciated 1.2 percent in the past week through yesterday, the biggest drop among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes. Treasuries lost 0.4 percent in September to the end of last week, heading for a fifth monthly decline, according to the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index.

“Markets were priced for the likelihood of a Summers nomination, primarily for the notion that he might raise interest rates sooner than perhaps other candidates, including Janet Yellen,” Tony Crescenzi, a portfolio manager and strategist at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said in an e-mail. “This news should result in outperformance of shorter maturities” before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting starting tomorrow.

Summers had been the president’s favorite for the job.

Twenty U.S. senators, 19 Democrats and one independent, signed a letter of support for Yellen in July, who would be the first female Fed chairman if nominated and confirmed.

Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, sometimes mentioned as another alternative, doesn’t want the Fed post and has made that clear since leaving the Treasury early this year, according to a person familiar with his thinking, who asked for anonymity to discuss private conversations.

“Summers withdrawing helps to crystalize the outlook and it does put the market on a more dovish stance going forward,” Tai Hui, the Hong Kong-based chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, which oversees about $1.5 trillion, said by telephone. “Obviously we have other names, but the reality seems a bit more support for Yellen after Summers’ exit from the race.”

A poll of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers, conducted Sept. 10, showed Yellen was viewed more favorably. Sixty percent of respondents had a positive view of Yellen, compared with 37 percent for Summers.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Life is an aspiration.  Its mission is to strive after perfection, which is self-fulfillment.

The ideal must not be lowered because of our weaknesses or imperfections.

-Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

It is a great art to saunter.

-Henry David Thoreau, 1817-1862


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

September 13, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

As Carolann is out of the office this afternoon, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf!

This Sunday, September 15th marks the 33rd annual Terry Fox Run.  The run will be taking place at the intersection of Dallas Road and Douglas street, near Mile Zero.  The run from Mile Zero is a 5km run along Dallas Road to St. Charles road and back.  Registration is at 9am with opening ceremonies at 10am feating the band “The Bald Eagles” debuting their newly recorded song for Terry, “Running for our Lives”.  Even if you are not a runner, feel free to come on down and cheer on all the runners!

Happiness is when what you think, what you say, and what you do are in harmony.Mahatma Gandhi

Photos of the Day –September 13th, 2013

An officer from Contra Costa County Sheriff’s Office climbs a portion of an obstacle course during the Best in the West 2013 Invitational S.W.A.T. Competition in San Jose, California September 12th. The two-day, seven course competition draws S.W.A.T. teams from all over the country. Josh Edelson/Reuters

Competitors pedal their way below the Chateau Frontenac, top, during the UCI World Tour Grand Prix cycling race in Quebec City. Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press/AP

Market Closes for September 13th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15376.06 +75.42 

 

+0.49%

S&P 500 1687.99 +4.57 

 

+0.27%

NASDAQ 3722.184 +6.217 

 

+0.17%

TSX 12723.40 +22.35

 

+0.18%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14404.67 +17.40

 

+0.12%

 

HANG 

SENG

22915.28 -38.44

 

-0.17%

 

SENSEX 19732.76 -49.12

 

-0.25%

 

FTSE 100 6583.80 -5.18

 

-0.08%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.764 2.781
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.247 3.261
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.8846 2.9029
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8349 3.8467

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96590 0.96839

 

US  

$

1.03530 1.03265
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37685 0.72630
US 

$

1.32990 0.75193

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1326.39 1322.12
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 108.21 108.60
BRENT 109.360 109.360

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, following the biggest retreat in two weeks yesterday, as commodity producers advanced after concern over possible cuts to U.S. central bank stimulus eased.

Niko Resources Ltd., the Canadian oil and natural gas explorer, jumped 10 percent to lead energy shares higher despite a decline in oil prices amid continuing talks over Syria.

Centerra Gold Inc. and B2Gold Corp. rallied at least 5.2 percent. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. and Canadian National Railway Co. gained more than 0.5 percent. Silvercorp Metals Inc. fell 2 percent as the commodity’s price tumbled.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 22.35 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,723.40 at 4 p.m. in Toronto.

Trading volume was 12 percent below the 30-day average. The benchmark Canadian index trimmed its loss for the week to 0.8 percent.

Stocks rose after a “long week of selling pressure on the Canadian markets” due to the lowering tensions over Syria, Paul Gardner, portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees C$300 million ($290 million). “What gets hit hard is oil and gold. But it was a bit overdone, so we are seeing a bit of a relief rally” in those industries.

Oil and gold prices led commodities lower today after the U.S. and Russia discussed a plan for Syria to surrender chemical weapons. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reported a “constructive” start to the talks. President Barack Obama has delayed a possible U.S. military intervention to take up the proposal for international oversight of Syria’s chemicals arsenal.

Equities rose as concerns eased over possible cuts to U.S. central bank stimulus. Investors, who have been scrutinizing economic data to determine whether growth is robust enough for the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus following its Sept. 17-18 meeting, will see a reduction next week as no big deal, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.

Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed say they don’t expect a sudden change in the markets because investors already anticipate tapering action.

U.S. data today showed retail sales rose 0.2 percent, the smallest increase in four months and below the 0.5 percent advance seen in Bloomberg survey. Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined in September to the lowest level since April.

Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August, while a separate report showed inventories at companies increased more than forecast in July.

“The retail sales were somewhat disappointing, but put all of the economic data together and it seems neutral,” Richard Sichel, who oversees about $1.9 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said by phone. “The fear of the Fed taper has gone away, as has the immediacy of the Syrian crisis.”

Energy shares rose 0.2 percent as a group, even as West Texas Intermediate crude capped its biggest weekly drop since July. Six out of 10 industries advanced in the S&P/TSX.

Calgary-based Niko Resources increased 10 percent to C$4.17. The gas and oil company’s stock had plummeted as much as 68 percent this year, reaching an almost 15-year low on Sept. 6.

AltaGas Ltd. shares rose 1.2 percent to C$35.43 after the company said late Thursday it will acquire a 25 percent stake in Petrogas Energy Corp., a privately held North American integrated midstream company.

Raw-materials stocks added 1.4 percent. Centerra Gold paced gains among mining companies, rising 7 percent to C$6.27 for its largest increase in more than three weeks. B2Gold Corp. climbed 5.2 percent to C$2.63. Gold companies plunged 5.3 percent as a group yesterday.

Gabriel Resources Ltd. rallied 12 percent to 93 Canadian cents. The gold and silver exploration company, backed by billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, slumped 54 percent on Sept. 9, its biggest decline in 25 years. The drop came on news that Romania’s prime minister urged lawmakers to reject plans for a gold mine.

Silvercorp Metals tumbled 2 percent to C$3.41. Silver futures dropped 1.9 percent, while gold for December delivery was down 1.7 percent today. Both metals had the largest weekly decline since June.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., Canada’s largest maker of the fertilizer, rallied 2.3 percent to C$33.57 and Agrium Inc. climbed 1.4 percent to C$92.55.

Russian entrepreneur Vladimir Kogan, a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin, is the leading bidder for the world’s leading potash producer, OAO Uralkali. Kogan is seeking to buy out the company’s three main shareholders, according to people familiar with the situation.

The talks began after Belarus arrested Uralkali Chief Executive Officer Vladislav Baumgertner Aug. 26, a month after he pulled out of a trading venture with Belarus, said the people familiar with the matter. The breakup of the venture sent potash prices plummeting.

“People view this sale of stock as a precursor event to the BPC export agency getting back together again,” Mark Gulley, a New York-based analyst at BGC Partners LP, said by phone, referring to Uralkali and Belaruskali’s venture, Belarusian Potash Co. “A lot of people believe that this is one of many steps to BPC getting back together again.”

Industrial shares gained 0.4 percent as railroad companies climbed. Canadian Pacific Railway jumped 1.7 percent to C$127.75. Canadian National Railway gained 0.5 percent to C$101.28.

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Lu Wang

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average capping its best week since January, as disappointing economic data fueled bets that any Federal Reserve stimulus cuts this month would be moderate.

Safeway Inc. advanced 6.1 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG raised its recommendation for the shares. Intel Corp. gained 3.6 percent after Jefferies Group LLC upgraded the stock.

GameStop Corp. surged 6.1 percent as U.S. video-game sales saw the first monthly rise 2011, a research group said. Peabody Energy Corp. dropped 3.2 percent as the Environmental Protection Agency revises proposed rules for new power plants.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent to 1,687.99 at 4 p.m. in New York. The gauge climbed 2 percent in the past five days, its best week in two months. The Dow jumped 0.5 percent to 15,376.06. It advanced 3 percent this week, the most since Jan. 4. About 5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 16 percent below the three-month average.

“The view is that we’re recovering and continue to do it in a slow pace,” Channing Smith, who helps oversee about $1.2 billion at Capital Advisors Inc. in Tulsa, Oklahoma, said in a phone interview. “The Fed will begin to taper but will be on a magnitude of $10 billion, which shouldn’t have an impact.”

Investors, who have been scrutinizing economic data to determine whether growth is robust enough for the Fed to slow stimulus following its Sept. 17-18 meeting, will see a reduction next week as no big deal, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.

Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed say they don’t expect a sudden change in the markets because investors already anticipate tapering action.

A Commerce Department report today showed retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent, the smallest increase in four months and below the 0.5 percent advance seen in Bloomberg survey.

Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August, adding 0.3 percent on higher costs for food and some fuels.

A separate report showed inventories at companies increased more than forecast in July, trailing a gain in sales that signals a pickup in factory orders. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary September index of consumer sentiment fell to 76.8 from 82.1 last month, which was the lowest since April.

The Fed will taper its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying by $10 billion to $75 billion after next week’s meeting, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Fed stimulus helped push the S&P 500 more than 150 higher from its March 2009 low, as better-than-estimated corporate earnings also fueled gains.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent yesterday, halting a seven-day win streak, amid concern that the U.S. has not ruled out military action against Syria. The threat of a U.S. strike roiled markets in August, dropping the S&P 500 to its worst performance since May 2012. The gauge has rallied 3.4 percent so far in September.

Secretary of State John Kerry reported a “constructive” start to talks with his Russian counterpart over bringing Syria’s chemical weapons under international oversight, while giving no sign of a breakthrough. Kerry told Syrian opposition figures yesterday that the option of a U.S. military strike remains on the table.

“Syria had a negative impact on markets in August, and now the negative impact is coming off,” Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $100 million.

Investors are also watching renewed political wrangling over the approaching limit on federal spending. Government funding expires Oct. 1 and the Treasury is expected to exhaust its ability to borrow funds in mid-October, when it will hit the statutory debt limit.

U.S. House members left Washington for the weekend yesterday after leaders shifted strategies in an effort to win over dissenting Republicans willing to risk a financial crisis to sidetrack President Barack Obama’s health-care law.

Republicans said they will try to use the spending-bill talks to delay the health-care law instead of defunding it.

The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, fell 0.9 percent to 14.16, capping an 11 percent five-day drop, its biggest weekly slide since July 5.

The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 17 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

All 10 main industries in the S&P 500 advanced today, with producers of consumer staples and utility stocks rising at least 0.8 percent. Procter & Gamble Co. added 1 percent to $79.05 and NRG Energy Inc. jumped 3 percent to $27.14.

Intel climbed 3.6 percent, the most since June, to $23.44 for the biggest gain in the Dow. Jefferies boosted its recommendation on the world’s largest chipmaker to buy from hold.

Safeway surged 6.1 percent to $28.20. Credit Suisse upgraded the second-largest U.S. supermarket chain to outperform, similar to buy, from underperform.

GameStop rose the most in the benchmark index, adding 6.1 percent to $52.45. U.S. sales of video-game products rose 1 percent last month to $521 million, the first four-week gain in almost two years, driven by new titles including Walt Disney Co.’s “Infinity,” featuring collectible characters. GameStop is the largest retailer in the market.

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. surged 17 percent to a record $117.53 after reporting second-quarter earnings of 70 cents a share, beating the 67-cent average projection by analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Peabody Energy dropped 3.2 percent to $17.98. The stock has fallen three straight days after reports that the Obama administration would ban new coal plants without strict emission controls. The environmental rules are expected to be released next week. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. lost 1.6 percent to $22.07.

Apple Inc. dropped 1.7 percent to $464.90. The world’s most valuable technology company lost 6.7 percent this week as the price of its new lower-cost iPhone disappointed analysts.

Twitter Inc. disclosed it had filed to go public in one of its 140-character postings yesterday, giving no other financial figures or details on when it will actually list. Twitter’s market debut will be led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and is likely to be the most anticipated initial public offering since Facebook Inc. listed last year.

“What Twitter management and Goldman are doing is observing that valuations are at healthy levels and that it’s a good time to attempt an IPO of this scale,” Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based fund manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $364 billion, said in a phone interview.

The S&P 500 trades at 16.2 times reported earnings, above the average multiple of 15.3 over the past five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge has advanced 18 percent this year.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!!!

 

Be magnificent!

 

To enjoy good health, to bring true happiness to one’s family, to bring peace to all, one must first discipline and control one’s own mind. If a man can control his mind he can find the way to Enlightenment, and all wisdom and virtue will naturally come to him.Buddha

 

As ever,

 

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.

 

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8X 3Y7

Tel: 778-430-5808

Fax: 778-430-5838

 

 

September 12, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

A good news story appeared today:

By MIKE PFLANZ:

NAIROBI, KENYAScientists using technology for discovering oil have found a vast underground water reservoir in one of Kenya’s driest regions that could supply the country’s needs for nearly 70 years, potentially turning arid zones into lush farmlands.  The new reserves are located in a basin in the extreme northwest that has a surface area the size of Delaware and is estimated to hold

billions of gallons, nearly nine times Kenya’s current reserves.  Almost half of Kenya’s 41 million people  have no access to clean water, and farmers in arid areas struggle to raise crops without  adequate irrigation.  Scientists say it is possible that, along with  water runoff from surrounding hills and plains that replenish the aquifer, the newly discovered resources could fulfill the country’s water demands indefinitely.  Tapping the new reserves in the basin, located in Kenya’s northern Turkana region, may allow for vast new zones of farmland in landscapes where today even the hardiest plants struggle to survive.  “The news about these water reserves are highly needed,” said Judi Wakhungu,  cabinet secretary at the Kenyan Environment,  Water, and Natural Resources Ministry.

It’s fun; baseball’s fun. –Yogi Berra

Photos of the Day –September 12th, 2013

Mascots make their way around the track in the Minnesota Twins Race at Target field after the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics in Minneapolis. Jim Mone/AP

Flood waters course through a small park in Boulder, Colo., in this image made with a slow shutter speed. Heavy rains and scarring from recent wildfires sent walls of water crashing down mountainsides in the area. Jud Valeski/AP

Market Closes for September 12th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15300.64 -25.96 

 

-0.17%

S&P 500 1683.42 -5.71 

 

-0.34%

NASDAQ 3715.968 -9.042 

 

-0.24%

TSX 12701.05 -124.37 

 

-0.97% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14387.27 -37.80 

 

-0.26% 

 

HANG 

SENG

22953.72 +16.58 

 

+0.07% 

 

SENSEX 19781.88 -215.57 

 

-1.08% 

 

FTSE 100 6588.98 +0.55 

 

+0.01% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.781 2.780
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.261 3.261
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.9029 2.9084
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8467 3.8467

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96839 0.96941 

 

US  

$

1.03265 1.03155
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37318 0.72824
US 

$

1.32977 0.75201

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1322.12 1365.26
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 108.60 107.56
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell the most in two weeks as precious metals plunged on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will taper stimulus when policy makers meet next week.

Goldcorp Inc. and Eldorado Gold Corp. sank at least 6.2 percent as the price of gold slumped the most in nine weeks.

Endeavour Silver Corp. retreated 9 percent. Teck Resources Ltd. lost 3.5 percent as copper touched a five-week low. Reitmans Canada Ltd. tumbled 13 percent to a nine-year low after reporting weaker-than-estimated profits yesterday.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 124.37 points, or 1 percent, to 12,701.05 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the biggest decline since Aug. 27. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has risen 2.2 percent this year.

“All across Canada you can see gold and the resource sector are down quite aggressively today,” said John Tsagarelis, a fund manager with Manulife Asset Management Ltd. in Toronto. He manages C$550 million ($533 million). “If tapering happens, yields go up, the U.S. dollar strengthens and gold sells off. Somebody was being very aggressive with gold this morning. The Syrian situation is probably the story getting the most headlines.”

U.S. Federal Reserve officials, set to meet Sept. 17-18, are watching economic data to determine when to begin scaling back the central bank’s $85 billion in monthly asset purchases.

The U.S. and Russia met today to discuss a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons, potentially averting a military strike. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said negotiating a deal must be a “two-way street” in which the Obama administration drops its military threats and stops arming Syrian rebels. Last month, gold gained 6.3 percent on escalating tensions in the Middle Eastern country.

Raw-materials stocks sank 3.5 percent as a group, leading declines as all 10 groups in the S&P/TSX retreated. Trading volume was in line with the 30-day average.

Goldcorp slumped 6.3 percent to C$26.81 and Eldorado Gold fell 7.5 percent to C$7.19 as all 24 members of the S&P/TSX Gold Index declined. The index is down 5.3 percent, the lowest close in a month.

Gold for December delivery lost 2.4 percent to settle at $1,330.60 an ounce in New York, the biggest drop since July 5.

Endeavour Silver sank 9 percent to C$4.36 and Silvercorp Metals Inc. tumbled 8.2 percent to C$3.48 as silver futures plunged 4.4 percent in New York. The metal has slumped 27 percent this year.

Teck Resources, Canada’s largest diversified miner, declined 3.5 percent to C$28.43 and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. slipped 2.2 percent to C$18.59 as the price of copper slid 1.4 percent. Wholesale prices dropped the most since 2009 last month in Germany, the world’s third-biggest copper consumer, official statistics showed today.

Reitmans Canada, a women’s apparel retailer, slumped 13 percent to C$8.03, the lowest since 2004. The company posted adjusted earnings of 16 Canadian cents a share, short of the 36 cents mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Same- store sales, a measure of revenue from outlets open at least a year, sank 6.8 percent in the second quarter.

Transat A.T. Inc., the travel services company, jumped 6 percent to C$9.90, the highest since August 2011, after reporting higher-than-estimated third-quarter earnings and forecasting better results than last year for the fourth quarter.

“We are on our way to a profitable year,” Jean-Marc Eustache, chief executive officer with Transat, said in the release.

Encana Corp. gained 3.8 percent to C$18.61, the highest close since June, after signaling potential asset sales in a strategy update. The company has more inventory, particularly in dry natural gas, than can be optimally developed, and must focus its portfolio, Encana said in a statement.

“Encana appears to be back on the road to winning again,” said Greg Pardy, co-head of global energy research with RBC Capital Markets, in a note to clients today. Pardy upgraded his rating for the stock to outperform, the equivalent of a buy, from sector perform. “Encana’s efforts to re-engineer its strategic game plan appear to be nearing completion sooner than its target of year-end 2013.”

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, halting a seven- day win streak for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as materials producers slid amid growing concern over Syria and investors weighed the prospects for Federal Reserve stimulus cuts.

Barrick Gold Corp. dropped 5.5 percent as the precious metal slumped the most since July. Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, lost 4.2 percent. Lululemon Athletica Inc. tumbled 5.4 percent after cutting its earnings forecast. Walt Disney Co. rallied 2.4 percent after saying it would buy back as much as $8 billion in shares. Pandora Media Inc. jumped 12 percent to a record after naming digital- advertising veteran Brian McAndrews as its new chief executive officer.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1,683.42 at 4 p.m. in New York, snapping the longest streak of gains since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 25.96 points, or 0.2 percent, to 15,300.64. About 5.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 4 percent below the three-month average.

“It shouldn’t be too surprising to see a modest pullback after the strong moves we’ve seen so far this month,” Ryan Larson, the Chicago-based head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., said in an interview. His firm oversees $290 billion. “With data light over the next several sessions, potential headlines regarding Syria and the much anticipated FOMC meeting next week will garner much of the attention.”

The S&P 500 rallied 3.4 percent in September through yesterday, rebounding from the worst monthly loss since May 2012, as reports showed China’s economy has strengthened and the U.S. looked less likely to attack Syria.

The tensions increased today as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told top Syrian opposition figures in a phone call today that the option of a U.S. military strike remains on the table, according to a State Department official. Kerry arrived in Geneva for talks with his Russian counterpart on a proposal for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad set conditions for the U.S., saying a deal must be a “two-way street” in which the Obama administration drops its military threats and stops arming Syrian rebels.

The tensions over Syria have competed for investor attention with concern about reductions in Fed stimulus.

Investors have been scrutinizing economic data to determine whether growth is robust enough for the Federal Open Market Committee to pare back its monthly bond buying following its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

A report today showed jobless claims in the U.S. declined last week to the lowest level since April 2006 as upgrades to computer systems in two states caused those employment agencies to report fewer applications.

“We’re going to ignore the report given the Labor Day holiday and this computer problem which calls into question the efficacy of the data,” said Phil Orlando, New York-based chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, which manages about $380 billion in assets.

Economists estimate the Fed this month will taper its stimulus by $10 billion a month, to $75 billion, according to the median of 34 responses in a Bloomberg News survey. The purchases have helped the S&P 500 rally as much as 153 percent since the beginning of the bull market in March 2009.

Speculation about reductions has whipsawed stocks since May, when Fed officials first indicated cuts could start this year. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest all-time high of 1,709.67 on Aug. 2. The gauge then slumped as much as 4.6 percent before the seven-day rally through yesterday brought it back to within 1.2 percent of the record and above the May 21 peak.

“The Fed has a golden opportunity next week to really provide the market needed visibility on the taper program,” Jim Russell, the senior equity strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said in an interview from Cincinnati. His firm oversees $112 billion. “Next week is going to be crucial for the markets.”

The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, rose 3.4 percent to 14.29. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 16 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012. The index moves in the opposite direction to the S&P 500 about 80 percent of the time.

Gauges of materials producers and financial companies fell the most among the 10 main industry groups in the S&P 500 today.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. slid 1.9 percent to $52.24 for the worst performance in the Dow. The bank may settle regulators’ probes into the bank’s credit-card debt collection practices and sales of identity-theft products as early as next week, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

Silver dropped the most in nine weeks and gold touched a four-week low as a report showed euro-area industrial output contracted more than analysts estimated in July. Copper declined to a one-month low.

Barrick Gold, the largest miner of the metal, slipped 5.5 percent to $17.61 as gold futures for December delivery dropped 2.4 percent for the biggest drop for a most-active contract since July 5. Newmont decreased 4.2 percent to $28.23.

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., the largest U.S. iron-ore producer, slumped 5.2 percent to $22.42 for the biggest drop in the benchmark index for American equities.

Lululemon retreated 5.4 percent to $65.29. The yogawear retailer searching for a new chief executive officer cut its profit forecast as new rivals enter its market and shoppers cut spending on clothing. Earnings per share will be as much as $1.97, down from a previous projection of a maximum of $2.01, the Vancouver-based company said. The average of 29 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg was $1.99.

Disney jumped 2.4 percent to $65.49, the most in the Dow.

The world’s biggest entertainment company plans to start the repurchase plan next year. The company will borrow to finance some of the buys, Chief Financial Officer Jay Rasulo said.

Pandora Media surged 12 percent to $23.97, the highest close since the stock began trading in June 2011. The biggest online radio service hired McAndrews in a push to lift revenue while fending off competition from Apple Inc. The executive was also named chairman and president, succeeding Joe Kennedy.

Phone stocks were the only group among 10 in the S&P 500 to advance, rallying 1 percent. AT&T Inc. jumped 1.2 percent to $34.38 and Verizon Communications Inc. rose 1.8 percent to $47.35 to pace gains among Dow companies.

Verizon produced a profit for investors of about $2.09 billion for agreeing to buy the record $49 billion of bonds it sold yesterday as the price of the securities surged. The debt sale topped Apple Inc.’s $17 billion offering in April and will help pay for the company’s planned $130 billion purchase of Vodafone Group Plc’s stake in Verizon Wireless.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc., a developer of small-molecule pharmaceuticals, rose 2 percent to $81.40, and Ametek Inc., a manufacturer of electronic instruments, added 2.6 percent to $45.57. S&P Dow Jones Indices said the two companies will join the S&P 500, replacing Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and SAIC Inc. AMD dropped 1.8 percent to $3.75 and SAIC added 1.3 percent to $14.96.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said stocks will continue to rally as the bull market in equities moves into a new phase driven by earnings growth rather than expanding valuations.

Equities will produce more moderate returns with lower volatility in the second phase of the bull market, according to Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman’s chief global equity strategist, who reiterated his bullish stance on stocks. Oppenheimer said in a March 2012 report that the prospects for returns from equities versus bonds “are as good as they have been in a generation.”

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

If you are in the moment, you are in the infinite.

-Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974

 

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

If anything is sacred the human body is sacred.

-Walt Whitman, 1819-1892


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 10, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

-from A Countrywoman’s Notes for the month of September, by Rosemary Verey:

Rosebay willow is beautiful in the wild but a menace in the garden.  Each September, its appearance reminds me of one day when I was seven.  A friend and I had been allowed to roam alone on the dunes behind Walmer Castle in Kent.  This wonderful willowherb was growing in profusion as tall as we were; we picked armfuls, some in flower and some with ripening seeds, and as we walked home through the garden, each with a cherished bouquet, we met the gardener.  At the time I could not understand his dismay as hundreds of seeds went wafting into his weedless borders.  Now when I see its deceptively pretty pink flowers appearing in my borders I remember that carefree day and pull it out, roots and all.  Autumn is the time to harvest sees of our special flowers; plants such as Nicotiana sylvestris to my mind the sweetest-scented of the tobacco family, and the nasty-smelling Salvia sclaria var. turkestanica, whose mauve bracts last for weeks and always cause comments of approval; all those which are hard to find in the seedsmen’s catalogues.  We should follow Thomas Tusser’s 16th century advice…

Good huswifes in summer will  save their own seedes,

Against the next years, as occasion needs.

One seed for another, to make an exchange,

With fellowlie neighbourhood seemeth not strange.

Photos of the Day –September 10th, 2013

A black cat strolls over a pile of pumpkins at a farm near Potsdam, eastern Germany. Ralf Hirschberger/dpa/AP

A giant panda with rare brown-and-white fur eats a carrot at a natural conservation area in Qinling, Shaanxi province, China. China Daily/Reuters

Market Closes for September 10th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15191.06 +127.94 

 

+0.85%

S&P 500 1683.99 +12.28 

 

+0.73%

NASDAQ 3729.022 +22.838 

 

+0.62%

TSX 12824.48 -30.16

 

-0.23%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14423.36 +218.13

 

+1.54%

 

HANG 

SENG

22976.65 +226.00

 

+0.99%

 

SENSEX 19997.10 +727.04

 

+3.77%

 

FTSE 100 6583.99 +53.25

 

+0.82%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.817 2.747
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.283 3.221
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.9662 2.9120
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8960 3.8530

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96624 0.96385

 

US  

$

1.03494 1.03751
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37309 0.72829
US 

$

1.32673 0.75373

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1363.44 1386.00
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 107.39 109.52
BRENT 109.360 109.360

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Nick Taborek

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, after touching the highest level in almost six months yesterday, as materials producers slumped amid signs of easing tensions over Syria.

Argonaut Gold Inc. sank 8 percent as the price of the precious metal plunged the most in two months in New York.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. sank 7.3 percent to pace losses among silver producers. BlackBerry Ltd. dropped 5.5 percent after the Globe & Mail reported big pension funds have “cooled” on a joining a possible bid for the company.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 30.16 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,824.48 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge rose 0.3 percent yesterday to the highest since March 12. Trading was 8.4 percent above the 30-day average.

“The Syrian situation seems to be at the moment working its way out with possibly a negotiated settlement,” said Paul Gardner, a fund manager with Avenue Investment Management in Toronto. The firm oversees about C$300 million ($288 million).

“You have a stock market rally in the U.S. In Canada the opposite occurs because we’re so heavily weighted towards gold, resources and oil, and that of course has come off due to the crisis settling down.”

U.S. stocks advanced today after France said it will submit a Russian-backed plan to confiscate Syria’s chemical weapons to the United Nations, as Interfax reported that Bashar al-Assad’s government accepted the proposal. U.S. President Barack Obama will outline his intentions on Syria in a speech at 9 p.m. tonight in Washington.

In Canada, five of 10 main groups in the S&P/TSX declined.

Materials stocks plunged 1.9 percent, the most in two weeks. An index of gold producers slumped 5.2 percent for the biggest decline in a month as gold futures tumbled 1.6 percent to settle at $1,364. Silver also retreated.

Goldcorp Inc. fell 6.7 percent to C$28.16 and Torex Gold Resources Inc. slumped 7.6 percent to C$1.45 to pace declines among producers of the precious metal. Argonaut dropped 8 percent to C$6.20. Fortuna Silver dropped 7.3 percent to C$4.09.

BlackBerry lost 5.5 percent to C$11.30, dragging technology stocks lower by 1 percent. The shares climbed 5.9 percent yesterday after a Sunday Times report said Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. is close to making a bid. A separate report today in the Globe & Mail, citing people familiar with the situation, said none of the big Canadian pension funds approached by Fairfax Financial have taken to the proposal.

BlackBerry said today it has cut its sales force and moved some staff to the U.S. to bolster sluggish sales of its new devices. The company is struggling with competition from Apple Inc.’s iOS, Google Inc.’s Android and Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Phone, which is now outselling BlackBerry. Apple introduced two new versions of its iPhone today, including a low-cost model.

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. advanced 3.4 percent to $34.02. OAO Uralkali, the Russian potash producer that exited a venture controlling almost half of global exports of the crop nutrient in July, said prices are unlikely to fall below $300 a metric ton as Asian and Brazilian demand will support sales.

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks climbed, extending the longest winning streak for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since July, as data showed China’s economy is improving amid signs of easing tensions over Syria.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Visa Inc. and Nike Inc. jumped more than 2.1 percent as the three companies will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Bank of America Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and Alcoa Inc. Apple Inc. tumbled 2.3 percent as the world’s biggest technology company unveiled new iPhone models.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.7 percent to 1,683.99 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index has gained for six straight days, the most since July 15. The Dow rose 127.94 points, or 0.9 percent, to 15,191.06 today. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 11 percent above the three-month average.

“The news from Syria is positive and we had decent economic data out of China,” Gary Flam, a portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors LLC in Los Angeles, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $7 billion. “Investors came into September cautiously positioned, but one by one their concerns are being removed or lessened.”

The S&P 500 has risen 3.1 percent in the first six trading days of the month, recovering from a drop of as much as 4.6 percent since a record high on Aug. 2. The benchmark index declined amid concern over a possible military strike against Syria and the prospect for the Federal Reserve scaling back its monetary stimulus.

President Barack Obama asked Democratic senators to delay a vote on authorizing military strikes to allow time for talks on eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons, lawmakers said today.

France said it will submit a Russian-backed plan to confiscate Syria’s chemical weapons to the United Nations, as Interfax reported that Bashar al-Assad’s government accepted the proposal. Obama is scheduled to outline his intentions on Syria in a speech at 9 p.m. tonight in Washington.

Stocks rose earlier after China’s industrial output rose 10.4 percent in August from a year earlier and the nation’s retail sales gained 13.4 percent. Both results exceeded economists’ estimates. Equities climbed yesterday as China’s exports topped forecasts.

The Fed is watching economic data ahead of its Sept. 17-18 meeting as it considers reducing its monthly $85 billion in asset buying. The S&P 500 has rallied as much as 153 percent since the beginning of the bull market in March 2009 as the central bank continued to provide stimulus to the economy.

Economists estimate the Fed this month will taper its monthly bond buying by $10 billion, to $75 billion, according to the median of 34 responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, dropped 7 percent to 14.53. The equity volatility gauge is down 15 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index jumped 1.9 percent to the highest level in a month. Shares in companies whose earnings are most closely tied to economic growth rose, sending the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index up 1.7 percent to the highest level since the gauge started in 1978. Industrial and financial shares rallied the most among 10 groups in the S&P 500, adding at least 1.1 percent.

Microsoft Corp. climbed 2.3 percent to $32.39 for the biggest gain in the Dow. General Electric Co. advanced 2.1 percent to $23.87, while United Technologies Corp., the maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engines and Sikorsky helicopters, increased 1.7 percent to $106.26.

Goldman Sachs climbed 3.5 percent to $165.14. Nike jumped 2.2 percent to $66.82 and Visa increased 3.4 percent to $184.59.

Hewlett-Packard lost 0.4 percent to $22.27. Alcoa slipped 0.3 percent to $8.06. Bank of America added 0.9 percent to $14.61.

The changes to the Dow will be the biggest reshuffling since April 2004. It will boost the influence of banking and computer companies in the 30-member gauge as the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets and the largest payment network join seven other financial and technology firms, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Cisco Systems Inc. Bank of America exits even after rising 109 percent in 2012, the Dow’s largest gain. The changes will take effect after the close on Sept. 20.

McDonald’s Corp. climbed 0.5 percent to $96.89. The world’s largest restaurant chain said same-store sales increased 1.9 percent last month, helped by demand in Europe. Analysts projected a 0.3 percent increase, the average of 16 estimates from Consensus Metrix. McDonald’s said it benefited from demand in France and Russia as well as the introduction of blended-ice beverages in the U.K.

E*Trade Financial Corp. soared 3.6 percent to $17.10, the highest level since February 2011. The online brokerage said its daily average revenue-generating trades rose 5 percent in August compared to the previous month and the stock was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie Group Ltd.

Apple tumbled 2.3 percent to $494.64. The company unveiled a cheaper $99 version of the iPhone in bright colors and an updated high-end device, in a strategy shift by Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook to reach a broader range of customers around the world as competing devices running Google Inc.’s Android software gain in popularity.

“The competition has caught up and it’s now purely about how quickly it can innovate and drive its own experience forward,” said Benedict Evans, an analyst with Enders Analysis in London.

Apple also said it was adding Japan’s largest carrier, NTT DoCoMo Inc., and that it would have devices available upon introduction in China for the first time. The company is near a deal with China Mobile Ltd., the world’s largest carrier, people familiar with the plans have said.

Urban Outfitters Inc. fell the most in the S&P 500, losing 10 percent to $38.35. The teen-clothing retailer said third- quarter comparable sales so far are growing at a mid-single- digit pace. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC last week estimated the company would report that the sales were running at a “high- single digit” rate.

 

Have  a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Contemplation is seeing the here and now.

-Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

A man’s homeland is wherever he prospers.

-Aristophanes, 446 BC-386 BC


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7