February 6, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1952, King George VI died; he was succeeded by his daughter, Elizabeth II.

Elizabeth Renzetti writes in today’s Globe & Mail:  She had left London a week earlier, a princess embarking on a five-month tour of the Commonwealth, waving goodbye to her father at the airport.  And she returned a queen.  Princess Elizabeth, 25, burst into tears when her husband, Philip, broke the news that her father, George VI, had died unexpectedly in his sleep on the royal estate of Sandringham on Feb. 6, 1952.  The young couple was staying at a hunting lodge in Kenya on the first leg of their tour, but immediately boarded a plane for the 19-hour flight back to London.  “It was a tragic homecoming,” reported the BBC.  “There stepped down from the plane a figure in mourning, Elizabeth II, the queen of this realm and all her other realms and territories, head of the Commonwealth, defender of the faith.”

And also on this day in…

1895 – Babe Ruth was born.

1900 – The Holland Senate ratified the 1899 peace conference decree that created in international arbitration court at The Hague.

1919 – Zsa Zsa Gabor was born.

1932 – Francois Truffaut was born.

1937 – K. Elizabeth Ohi became the first Japanese woman lawyer when she received her degree from John Marshall Law School in Chicago, IL.

1945 – Bob Marley was born.

1987 – President Ronald Reagan turned 76 years old this day and became the oldest U.S. President in history.

2001 – Ariel Sharon was elected Israeli prime minister.

All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure. ― Mark Twain


Market Closes for February 6th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13986.52 +7.22 

 

+0.05%

S&P 500 1512.12 +0.83 

 

+0.05%

NASDAQ 3168.479 -3.102 

 

-0.10%

TSX 12761.59 +15.94 

 

+0.13% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 11463.75 +416.83 

 

+3.77% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23256.93 +108.40 

 

+0.47% 

 

SENSEX 19639.72 -20.10 

 

-0.10% 

 

FTSE 100 6295.34 +12.58 

 

+0.20% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

1.996 2.017
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.599 2.620
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9603 1.9980
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1694 3.2083

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.99580 0.99558 

 

US  

$

1.00422 1.00444
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.34637 0.74274
US 

$

1.35211 0.73959

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1677.85 1674.45
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 96.62 96.64
BRENT 117.70 117.21 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Sarah Pringle

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks advanced as earnings from companies including TMX Group Ltd. and Genworth MI Financial Inc. offset a slump in Suncor Energy Inc. after it posted disappointing results.

TMX, the owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, and Genworth rose at least 2.3 percent after beating analysts’ earnings estimates. Raw-material shares rallied as Silver Wheaton Corp. climbed 1.4 percent after agreeing to buy gold from Vale SA mines in Brazil and Canada. Suncor Energy, Canada’s largest energy company by market value, dropped 5.4 percent for the worst performance in the benchmark index, after reporting the biggest loss in at least two decades.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index added 15.94 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,761.59 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. Seven of 10 industries advanced. About 738 million shares traded hands on Canadian exchanges today, or 3 percent below the three-month average. The benchmark gauge has gained 2.6 percent this year.

“Earnings season in Canada is just starting to ramp up,” Jeffrey Bradacs, who helps oversee about C$1.5 billion ($1.5 billion) as a fund manager with Toronto-based Manulife Asset Management Ltd., said in a phone interview. “That will be the key catalyst now going forward.”

Financial shares contributed most to gains in the benchmark index, as Royal Bank of Canada rose 1 percent to C$62.67, reaching a record high.

TMX Group rallied 2.3 percent to C$56.73. The company benefited from an increase in revenue from its trading, clearing and depository business, after adding contributions from the Canadian Depository for Securities Ltd. clearinghouse and Alpha Group. The businesses were acquired as part of TMX’s C$3.73 billion takeover in September by a group of banks and pension funds.

Genworth, a residential mortgage insurance provider, advanced 4 percent to C$24.63, the most in four months. The company, based in Oakville, Ontario, reported a surge in new business and a drop in its loan loss ratio that led to better- than-expected earnings.

Silver Wheaton, which resells precious metals bought from mining companies, rose 44 Canadian cents to C$36.57. The Vancouver-based company agreed to acquire gold mined by Vale in Brazil and Canada for $1.9 billion in cash and 10 million share warrants. Silver Wheaton typically offers upfront payments to help mining companies fund their projects in exchange for a discount on the silver and gold output that it buys.

Energy producers had the worst performance among S&P/TSX groups, slipping 0.5 percent.

Suncor, the oil-sands producer, slumped C$1.85 to C$32.53, the biggest decline since June. The Calgary-based company reported its first quarterly loss in 3 1/2 years. Suncor’s results were hurt by a charge of C$1.49 billion related to its Voyageur oil project in the province of Alberta, which may face cancellation. The company also said late yesterday in a statement it faces a possible C$1.2 billion tax bill.

Husky Energy Inc., the Canadian oil company controlled by Asia’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, fell 1 percent to C$31.06. The Calgary-based company reported fourth-quarter profit and sales that missed analysts’ estimates on lower-than-expected refining margins.

US

By Inyoung Hwang and Leslie Picker

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, erasing earlier declines, as better-than-estimated earnings overshadowed concern over Europe’s debt crisis before a gathering of euro-area leaders tomorrow.

Time Warner Inc. surged 4.1 percent after affiliate fees from cable-TV providers boosted profit. Walt Disney Co. gained 0.4 percent after sales topped estimates and its interactive unit posted its first profit since 2009. GameStop Corp. plunged 6 percent after a report said Microsoft Corp.’s next Xbox console will require an Internet connection. DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. dropped 3.9 percent after the company pulled one movie from its schedule and delayed the release of another.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,512.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 7.22 points, or 0.1 percent, to 13,986.52. More than 6.5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 5.1 percent above the three-month average.

“Most of the bad news is well-known and the better news is still playing,” David Sowerby, fund manager at Boston-based Loomis Sayles & Co., said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees about $180 billion. “In a tug-of-war with Europe, the good news, which is earnings, respectable valuations, and continued low interest rates, is winning the war.”

U.S. equities slumped earlier in the day amid concerns Europe’s debt crisis may worsen. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will head a meeting of policy makers tomorrow in Frankfurt as euro-area leaders gather for a summit in Brussels.

The euro has retreated from a 14-month high against the dollar reached on Feb. 1 as Spain’s premier faced opposition calls to resign.

The S&P 500 has rallied 6 percent in 2013 as U.S. lawmakers reached a budget compromise and companies reported better-than- estimated earnings. The benchmark equity gauge is 3.4 percent below its record high reached in October 2007. It has more than doubled since bottoming in March 2009 as the Federal Reserve conducted three rounds of bond-buying to lower interest rates and boost economic growth.

Visa Inc., News Corp. and Prudential Financial Inc. are among 24 companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings today.

About 74 percent of the 303 index members that have released results so far in the earnings season exceeded profit projections, and 67 percent beat sales estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Time Warner, owner of the HBO cable network and the Warner Bros. film studio, rose $2.05 to $52.01. Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Bewkes has concentrated the company’s growth strategy on its TV business. He fostered the development of costly shows, such as HBO’s “Game of Thrones,” and signed rights deals for major sports programming, including the NCAA basketball tournament, to command higher fees from pay-TV providers such as Comcast Corp. and DirecTV.

The New York-based company also announced a new buyback program and boosted its dividend 11 percent to almost 29 cents a share, up from 26 cents.

Disney, the world’s largest entertainment company, advanced 23 cents to $54.52. The owner of the “Star Wars” and “Avengers” franchises said first-quarter profit adjusted for some items was 79 cents a share, topping the 77-cent average of 26 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales rose 5.2 percent to $11.3 billion.

Ralph Lauren Corp. surged 5.9 percent to $174.63. The retailer of its namesake brand clothing reported fiscal third- quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates, helped by lower- than-expected expenses and cheaper cotton.

3M Co. jumped 1.2 percent to $102.69, for the biggest advance in the Dow. The maker of products ranging from Scotch tape to dental braces authorized a stock buyback program of as much as $7.5 billion and increased the quarterly dividend by 7.6 percent.

Aflac Inc. fell 4.3 percent to $51.18 after the largest seller of supplemental health insurance forecast profit that fell short of analysts’s estimates. A weaker yen is pressuring results at Aflac, which gets most of its revenue in Japan.

GameStop tumbled $1.61 for the second-biggest decline in the S&P 500 to $25.20. The world’s largest video-game retailer surged 16 percent over the previous three days. Microsoft’s next console will include technology that registers video games over the Internet and renders resold titles useless, the gaming website Edge.com said today, without saying where it got the information.

DreamWorks, the independent studio behind the “Madagascar” films, dropped 68 cents to $16.75. “Me and My Shadow” was pulled from the schedule and put back in development, DreamWorks Animation said. “Mr. Peabody & Sherman,” planned for theaters in November 2013, will now be released in March 2014. The change reduces the company’s 2013 release slate to two movies from three.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. led declines in the S&P 500, falling 9.7 percent to $60.50. The freight broker reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ estimates.

Wynn Resorts Ltd., which depends on its Macau unit for most of its revenue, dropped 2 percent to $123.30. China’s government will start taking action this month to clamp down on junket operators that bring gamblers from the mainland to Macau, the London-based Times reported on its website, citing unidentified people in law enforcement.

Apple Inc. fell 0.1 percent to $457.35, erasing an earlier rally of as much as 1.9 percent. A report showed that Legg Mason Inc. fund manager Bill Miller said the stock may be worth 50 percent more than its current price. Miller told the Financial Times the shares could be worth more if the company were to keep all its cash on its balance sheet and put future free cash flow into a dividend.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

I do not know of any religion apart from human activity.

It provides a moral basis to all other activities which they would otherwise lack,

reducing life to a maze of ‘sound and fury signifying nothing.’

Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Success is a lousy teacher.  It seduces smart people

into thinking they can’t lose.

-Bill Gates, 1955-


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

February 5, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Today when I found the first picture below, I smiled because we saw the first spring blossoms of the year just last Sunday!  Gary and I were walking downtown and I looked over to The Empress and a few of the trees were already in blossom; the rest are just about to blossom.

I finished reading a wonderful book last weekend that I want to share with you.  It is entitled The Secret Scripture; it is written by Sebastian Barry.  I agree with Thomas Cahill who writes that [this book contains] “some of the most beautifully formed prose passages I have ever read.”

Here is a sample, one of the passages I marked in the book:

“The room had a little bit of sideways spring sunlight, that seemed to have crept in through the window-glass with an almost apologetic delicacy.  A little square beam of it sat across Roseanne’s face.  Yes, she is very old.  Sunlight as always the most brutal measurer of age, but also, the most faithful painter.  I thought of the line from T.S. Eliot that we learned at school in England,

My life is like a feather on the back of my hand,

Waiting for the death wind.

It is spoken by Simeon, the man who wished to live long enough to see the newborn Messiah.  I do not think Roseanne is waiting for that.  I thought also of those self-portraits of Rembrandt van Rijn, so faithfully faithless to the idea of our own looks that we carry as an antidote against remorse….today was the day I opted myself for her silence, her privacy.  Because it strikes me there is something greater than judgement.  I think it is called mercy.”

Photos of the day February 5th, 2013


A cat sits on top of a tree in Kathmandu, Nepal. Navesh Chitrakar/Reuters

Workers check on electricity pylon situated amid farmlands in Chuzhou, Anhui province, China. A leading think tank of China predicted that China’s GDP will grow in 2013 at a rate of 8.4 percent, up by 0.6 percentage points from that of 2012, China Daily/Reuters

I’m a success today because I had a friend who believed in me and I didn’t have the heart to let him down. ― Abraham Lincoln.

Market Closes for February 5th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13979.30 +99.22 

 

+0.71%

S&P 500 1511.29 +15.58 

 

+1.04%

NASDAQ 3171.581 +40.415 

+1.29%

TSX 12745.65 +28.03 

 

+0.22% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 11046.92 -213.43 

 

-1.90% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23148.53 -536.48 

 

-2.27% 

 

SENSEX 19659.82 -91.37 

 

-0.46% 

 

FTSE 100 6282.76 +35.92 

 

+0.58% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.017 1.988
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.620 2.597
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9980 1.9548
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.2083 3.1599

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.99558 0.99784 

 

US  

$

1.00444 1.00216
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.35229 0.73948
US 

$

1.35830 0.73622

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1674.45 1674.45
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 96.64 96.17
BRENT 117.21 116.26 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Sarah Pringle

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, rebounding from yesterday’s retreat, as BlackBerry surged on signs of strong demand for its new phone and energy shares rallied amid a recovery in oil prices.

BlackBerry, formerly known as Research in Motion, jumped 6.3 percent after wireless carrier BCE Inc. said the Z10 smartphone has attracted record orders. Energy producers rallied as oil rebounded 0.5 percent. Condor Petroleum Inc. surged 55 percent after announcing an oil discovery in Kazakhstan. WestJet Airlines Ltd. rose 3 percent as traffic and capacity levels increased in January.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index climbed 28.03 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,745.65 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark gouge dropped 0.4 percent yesterday and has gained 2.5 percent this year. Nine of 10 industries advanced today. About 791 million shares traded hands on Canadian exchanges today, or 4.2 percent above the three-month average.

“Canada is really trading on news that’s happening globally,” Anish Chopra, managing director and portfolio manager at TD Asset Management Inc., said in a phone interview.

The Toronto-based firm manages about C$204 billion ($205 billion). “There’s sort of a risk-on tone in Europe that has translated into a risk-on tone here in North America as well. People are just more optimistic.”

Global equities rebounded today after a slump yesterday sparked by renewed concern that Europe’s debt crisis will intensify. Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds recovered following losses yesterday. Data today showed service industries shrank less than initially estimated in Europe while growing more than economists forecast in the U.S. Energy producers contributed the most to gains in the S&P/TSX. Encana Corp., Canada’s largest natural gas producer, climbed 1.7 percent to C$19.37, and Suncor Energy Inc., the Calgary-based oil-sands producer, rose 0.6 percent to C$34.38.

Condor Petroleum surged 23 Canadian cents, the biggest gain since the company went public in April 2011, to 65 Canadian cents. Don Streu, Condor’s chief executive officer, said the company has about three weeks of drilling to go before it can evaluate the size of the discovery at the Kiyaktysai well in the Zharkamys West 1 territory in Kazakhstan.

Tethys Petroleum Ltd., which also has assets in Kazakhstan, jumped 20 percent to 73 Canadian cents, its highest level since September.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for March delivery rose 47 cents to settle at $96.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

BlackBerry jumped 95 Canadian cents to C$15.94, extending a two-day rally to 23 percent. BCE, Canada’s No. 2 carrier, said early orders for the Z10 have topped any previous BlackBerry model, while one Carphone Warehouse Group Plc outlet in the U.K., where the phone has been on sale since Jan. 31, sold out of the model in under half an hour, local staff said.

WestJet Airlines rose 66 Canadian cents to C$22.55. The low-fare airline reported a 6.4 percent increase in capacity for January. Its load factor, or percentage of seats filled with paying passengers, climbed to 80.9 percent for a seventh straight monthly record.

Raw material producers had the only decline among 10 S&P/TSX groups. Torex Gold Resources Inc. dropped 3.6 percent to C$1.90, and Silver Standard Resources Inc. slipped 1.7 percent to C$11.79. Gold futures for April delivery fell 0.2 percent to $1,673.50 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

CGX Energy Inc. tumbled 13 percent to 14 Canadian cents.

Repsol SA, Spain’s largest oil producer, and Toronto-based CGX plan to re-drill the Jaguar-1 well prospect off the coast of Guyana after abandoning the initial probe in July because of excessive well pressure.

US

By Inyoung Hwang and Leslie Picker

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks advanced, rebounding from the biggest loss of the year for benchmark indexes, as earnings topped forecasts and Dell Inc. agreed to be taken private in the largest leveraged buyout since the financial crisis.

All 10 groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed at least 0.1 percent. Dell added 1.1 percent after Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management LLC agreed to buy the personal-computer maker. Computer Sciences Corp. jumped 9.2 percent after raising its earnings forecast for 2013.

McGraw-Hill Cos. plunged the most in the benchmark index after the company and its S&P unit were sued by the U.S. over mortgage-bond ratings.

The S&P 500 rose 1 percent to 1,511.29 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index sank 1.2 percent yesterday amid concern that the European debt crisis may intensify. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 99.22 points, or 0.7 percent, to 13,979.30 today.

More than 6.7 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 8.3 percent above the three-month average.

“There’s an underlying tidal wave,” Rob Morgan, who oversees $1 billion as chief investment strategist at McLean, Virginia-based Fulcrum Securities LLC, said by telephone. “When you do get a pullback, that’s an excellent time to put some money to work in the stock market,” he said. “If insiders are buying their stock, that’s a positive sign. Here’s the ultimate insider of Dell, basically buying a controlling stake.”

The S&P 500 has rallied 6 percent in 2013 as U.S. lawmakers reached a budget compromise and companies reported better-than- estimated earnings. The gauge is 3.4 percent below the record 1,565.15 it reached in October 2007. The Dow is 1.3 percent from its all-time high.

The benchmark gauge tumbled the most since Nov. 14 yesterday as Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy faced opposition calls to resign and Deutsche Bank AG said this year’s rally in Italian and Spanish bonds may falter.

About 74 percent of the 291 companies from the gauge that have released results so far in the reporting season have exceeded profit projections, and 66 percent have beaten sales estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Walt Disney Co. and Expedia Inc. are among 27 companies in the S&P 500 that reported today.

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. non- manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, fell to 55.2 in January from the prior month’s 55.7, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. The median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 55. Readings above 50 signal expansion.

“It’s as if the water’s fine, so come on in,” Rex Macey, who oversees $20 billion as chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust Advisors in Atlanta, said by telephone. “We’re getting into a ‘buy on dips’ mentality as people try to increase their positioning.” He said on Dell, “These are indications that there’s long-term confidence in the economy and the markets.”

Consumer, financial, health-care and technology companies rose the most out of 10 S&P 500 groups, rallying at least 1 percent. Twenty-eight out of 30 stocks in the Dow increased. The KBW Bank Index of 24 U.S.-listed lenders added 1.6 percent to 54.90, a two-year high. Bank of America Corp. jumped 3.5 percent to $11.88. JPMorgan Chase & Co. gained 2.3 percent to $48.79.

Apple Inc. rallied 3.5 percent to $457.84 and Hewlett-Packard Co. surged 2.7 percent to $16.61.

Dell added 15 cents to $13.42. The world’s third-biggest maker of personal computers agreed to be purchased for $13.65 a share in a deal valued at $24.4 billion. That’s 25 percent more than the closing price of $10.88 on Jan. 11, the last trading day before Bloomberg News reported the discussions. Michael Dell is taking back majority control of the company he started almost three decades ago.

Computer Sciences gained the most in the S&P 500, adding $3.84 to $45.75. The technology contractor for governments and companies forecast earnings from continuing operations this year will be as much as $2.70 a share after previously projecting no more than $2.50.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. advanced 3.3 percent to $29.38.

The world’s largest corn processor reported earnings excluding inventory gains and other items exceeded analysts’ estimates by 2 cents a share, as its U.S. soybean-crushing operations ran at record capacity. Sales were $24.9 billion, exceeding the $22.7 billion average projection.

Estee Lauder Cos. jumped 6 percent to $64.71. The maker of Mac cosmetics and Clinique skin care lifted its profit forecast for the year to as much as $2.59 a share. The New York-based company previously estimated earnings would be no more than $2.56.

Zynga Inc. jumped 7 percent to $2.74. Bank of America raised its rating on the biggest maker of social games to buy from underperform.

BlackBerry surged 6.9 percent to $16.02. Thorsten Heins, chief executive officer of the company formerly known as Research In Motion Ltd., said early sales of the Z10 smartphone are “encouraging” and that users are switching from other platforms. The Z10 smartphone has attracted record orders at Canadian wireless carrier BCE Inc. and analysts say sales are off to a strong start in the U.K.

McGraw-Hill plunged 11 percent to $44.92, adding to a 14 percent drop yesterday when the company said it expected the lawsuit. The U.S. is seeking as much as $5 billion in penalties from McGraw-Hill and S&P as punishment for inflated credit ratings that Attorney General Eric Holder said were central to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

“Claims that we deliberately kept ratings high when we knew they should be lower are simply not true,” said Catherine Mathis, a company spokeswoman, in an e-mailed statement.

Moody’s Corp., owner of the second-largest ratings provider, dropped 8.8 percent for the second-biggest decline in the S&P 500 to $45.09. The shares lost 11 percent yesterday.

Yum! Brands Inc. slid 2.9 percent to $62.08. The owner of the KFC and Pizza Hut dining chains said profit will be less than it previously expected as a probe into its chicken suppliers hurt sales in China. Earnings excluding certain items will drop this year, compared with a previous estimate for growth of 10 percent, the company said late yesterday in a statement.

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc., the largest offshore rig contractor in the U.S., fell 3.8 percent to $73.58, after forecasting more downtime for its vessels in 2013 than analysts expected.

U.S. stocks will extend gains from a five-year high as corporate earnings increase and central banks maintain policies to stimulate economic growth, said Robert Doll, Nuveen Asset Management LLC’s chief equity strategist.

Interest rates near zero will lead investors to keep adding to equity funds, said Doll, who works at the Chicago-based firm that oversees $117 billion. He said he’s bullish on shares from the U.S. and emerging markets and concerned about European and Japanese equities.

“The fundamentals, meaning corporate earnings, macroeconomics, delay of problems in Washington, zero-percent return on cash, and monetary accommodation virtually everywhere in the world,” Doll said in a television interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “They’re the ingredients to me for stocks to go higher.”

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Do you live and work in the world?

Always act according to the highest moral standards, both in private and in public.

Always be honest in word and deed, both in private and in public.

Master your emotions and control your senses, both in private and in public.

Be calm and patient, both in private and in public.

Take every opportunity to serve others, both in private and in public.

Be kind and gentle to your children, both in private and in public.

Taittiriya Upanishad


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Failure is success if we learn from it.

-Malcolm Forbes, 1919-1990


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

February 4, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Neil Subin is the associate dean of biological sciences at the University of Chicago and the author of “The Universe Within: Discovering the Common History of Rocks, Planets, and People.”  I read an interesting column he wrote last week in The New York Times.  In it, he discusses why winter causes seasonal affective disorder for so many people.  He writes, “Our genetic clocks are set to the sun by our brains and our eyes.  Light entering our eyes triggers a signal that ends in a tiny patch of cells in the brain.  This brain region then emits hormones that coordinate the clocks in the different cells of the body.  Mess with this system and things go awry really fast….Our clocks tie us not only to other creatures, but also to the formation of the solar system itself.  The spinning of the earth and rotation of the moon form a backbeat that thumps inside the chemistry of our cells.  The Apollo missions returned more than 840 pounds of moon rock and soil samples.  Analysis of minerals inside reveals that they have a chemical signature similar to those of Earth’s crust and are in this respect unique among other bodies of the solar system.

The current theory that accounts for all the evidence is that a Mars-size asteroid hit the Earth over four billion years ago.  The mélange of Earth’s crust and asteroid debris ejected into space, ultimately congealing as the moon and tilting the primordial Earth.

With that great cataclysm came our seasons, months and the duration of days.  Our internal timepieces, and some of the maladies we suffer, lie as artifacts of this moment in our planet’s history.

Carl Sagan famously reveled in the fact that ‘we are stardust,’ because the elements that compose us are derived from the birth of stars and the explosion of supernovae.  These events are only the beginning of our deep connections to the universe.  Written inside of us is the birth of the solar system and workings of the planet itself.”

Photos of the day February 4tht, 2013


NASA illustration shows aesthetic close-up of cosmic clouds and stellar winds featuring LL Orionis, interacting with the Orion Nebula flow in this image released on February 4, 2013. Adrift in Orion’s stellar nursery and still in its formative years, variable star LL Orionis produces a wind more energetic than the wind from our own middle-aged Sun. ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team//NASA/Reuters

The remains found underneath a car park last September at the Grey Friars excavation in Leicester have been declared ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ to be the long lost remains of England’s King Richard III, missing for 500 years. Richard was immortalized in a play by Shakespeare as a hunchbacked usurper who left a trail of bodies — including those of his two young nephews, murdered in the Tower of London — on his way to the throne. University of Leicester/AP

Market Closes for February 4th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13880.08 -129.71 

 

-0.93%

S&P 500 1495.71 -17.46 

 

-1.15%

NASDAQ 3131.167 -47.931 

 

-1.51%

TSX 12717.62 -51.21

 

-0.40%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 11260.35 +69.01

 

+0.62%

 

HANG 

SENG

23685.01 -36.83

 

-0.16%

 

SENSEX 19751.19 -30.00

 

-0.15%

 

FTSE 100 6246.84 -100.40

 

-1.58%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

1.988 2.039
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.597 2.631
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9548 2.0149
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1599 3.2178

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.99784 0.99642

 

US  

$

1.00216 1.00359
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.34809 0.74179
US 

$

1.35100 0.74019

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1674.45 1667.45
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 96.17 97.77
BRENT 116.26 117.48

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Sarah Pringle

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks retreated as financial and commodity shares slumped on renewed concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Petrobank Energy & Resources Ltd. and Cenovus Energy Inc. lost more than 1.5 percent as oil prices declined. Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank slid at least 0.7 percent.

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. dropped 2.1 percent after hiring Keith Creel away from rival Canadian National Railway Co.

BlackBerry, formerly known as Research In Motion Ltd., rose 15 percent after Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. raised its rating.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index lost 51.21 points, or 0.4 percent, to 12,717.62 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark gouge has gained 2.3 percent this year. Nine of 10 industries retreated today. About 695 million shares traded hands on Canadian exchanges today, or 8.4 percent below the three-month average.

“You can’t go straight up, you need a time for pause and reflection and to catch your bearings,” Barry Schwartz, who helps manage C$480 million ($476 million) as a fund manager at Toronto-based Baskin Financial Services, said in a phone interview. “Commodities continue to be beaten and thrown to the curb and misused and abused, and I think that’s going to be the trend that will continue.”

Spanish 10-year government yields jumped 23 basis points to 5.44 percent and Italy’s rates jumped as well. Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy is facing opposition calls to resign amid contested reports about illegal payments, while Deutsche Bank AG said this year’s rally in Italian and Spanish bonds may falter as Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi narrowed the front-runner’s lead before elections this month.

An index of financial shares in the S&P/TSX lost 0.5 percent. Royal Bank of Canada dropped 0.5 percent to C$62.21 and Toronto-Dominion Bank slid 0.7 percent to C$82.96.

Petrobank Energy, an oil and gas explorer, fell 2.2 percent to 88 Canadian cents. Cenovus Energy, a Canadian oil producer, dropped 1.5 percent to C$33.20. Crude oil for March delivery slid 1.6 percent to $96.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the most in two months, as the prospect of renewed talks between Western countries and Iran reduced Middle East tension.

Teck Resources Ltd., which mines gold and other natural resources, retreated 1.3 percent to C$36.51. New Gold Inc., the Vancouver-based gold explorer, dropped 2.3 percent to C$9.89.

Gold futures for April delivery gained 0.3 percent to $1,676.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd., which owns 66 percent of the Oyu Tolgoi gold and copper mine in Southern Mongolia, fell 1.3 percent to C$7.57. Mongolia’s President Tsakhia Elbegdorj said the nation should have more control of Rio Tinto Group’s Oyu Tolgoi project after the government claimed costs had increased.

Canadian Pacific Railway slid C$2.40 to C$113.38. The company hired Creel away from Canadian National Railway and named him president and chief operating officer to assist Chief Executive Officer Hunter Harrison in his turnaround plan. The companies reached a settlement to end their outstanding litigation linked to Harrison’s move to Canadian Pacific last year, Canadian National said in a separate release.

Canadian National slipped 0.6 percent to C$95.14.

Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. rose 5.7 percent to C$6.47. The gold mining company said it remains on track to meet its production guidance for the current fiscal year.

BlackBerry rallied C$1.98 to C$14.99, for the biggest gain since November, as technology companies had the only advance among 10 groups in the S&P/TSX. Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded the company to outperform from market perform, citing a strong start in the first days of sales for the BlackBerry 10. BlackBerry shares tumbled 26 percent last week amid the introduction of the new smartphones.

Harry Winston Diamond Corp. was unchanged at C$14.70, erasing earlier gains of up to 2 percent. The luxury jewelry retailer said C. Fipke Holdings Ltd. ended court action brought against it, BHP Billiton Ltd. and other companies. The minority stakeholder of the Ekati diamond mine sued to block Harry Winston’s proposed acquisition of BHP’s 80 percent share of the Canadian operation.

US

By Inyoung Hwang and Leslie Picker

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest decline since November, on concern that the European debt crisis may intensify.

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell at least 0.5 percent.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. dropped 1.2 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its rating on the stock. Gannett Co. erased 6.7 percent on concern that TV revenue growth won’t be enough to compensate for weak print advertising. Herbalife Ltd. rose 1.3 percent, rebounding from a decline of as much as 12 percent, after the Federal Trade Commission corrected an erroneous statement that said the company was the subject of a law-enforcement probe.

The S&P 500 slipped 1.2 percent, the most since Nov. 14, to 1,495.71 in New York, after reaching a five-year high last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 129.71 points, or 0.9 percent, to 13,880.08. More than 6.3 billion shares traded handed on U.S. exchanges today, in line with the three-month average.

“There’s some profit-taking happening,” Matthew Swaim, a fund manager at Chicago-based Advisory Research Inc., which oversees $9 billion in assets, said by telephone. “People are drawing a corollary to the last couple years where in the spring Europe started taking the limelight again and that caused a drop in our markets.”

The S&P 500 rallied 5 percent last month as lawmakers reached a budget compromise and companies reported better-than- estimated earnings. The Dow climbed above the 14,000-level last week for the first time since 2007, and is 2 percent away from its all-time high.

Yum! Brands Inc. and Sysco Corp. are among 13 companies in the S&P 500 that report earnings today. About 73 percent of the 264 companies from the gauge that have released results this earnings season have exceeded profit projections, and 66 percent have beaten sales estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.5 percent today. Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy is facing opposition calls to resign amid contested reports about illegal payments, while Deutsche Bank AG said this year’s rally in Italian, as well as Spanish, bonds may falter as Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi narrowed the front-runner’s lead before elections this month.

Spanish 10-year government yields jumped 23 basis points to 5.44 percent. Yields on similar-maturity Italian debt rose 14 basis points to 4.47 percent.

Orders placed with U.S. factories increased less than forecast in December, reflecting a drop in non-durable goods that overshadowed gains in construction equipment and computers.

Bookings climbed 1.8 percent after a revised 0.3 percent drop in November that was initially reported as unchanged, Commerce Department figures showed. The Bloomberg survey median called for a 2.3 percent gain.

The recent rally in U.S. stocks has made the benchmark S&P 500 look overvalued given the slow pace of the country’s economic recovery, Patrick Legland, Societe Generale SA’s head of research, wrote in a note. The “risk-on mode” may end soon with a lack of positive economic data, Legland wrote.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, jumped 14 percent to 14.67 today for the biggest gain of the year, trimming its 2013 decline to 19 percent. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of 30 U.S. companies most tied to economic growth slid 1.4 percent, the most since November.

Technology, financial and consumer discretionary companies fell the most out of 10 S&P 500 groups, losing at least 1.2 percent. The KBW Bank Index of 24 U.S. lenders slumped 1.2 percent.

Wal-Mart fell 86 cents to $69.63 as JPMorgan downgraded its rating on the stock to neutral from overweight, a rating similar to buy. The brokerage also reduced its price target for the stock to $75 from a previous estimate of $84.

Gannett lost $1.33 to $18.51. The owner of 82 U.S. daily newspapers and 23 television stations said TV sales for the first quarter of this year should have percentage growth in the “high single-digits” from a year earlier. That’s a slowdown from 46 percent growth to $280.2 million in the fourth quarter.

McGraw-Hill Cos. sank 14 percent to $50.30. The U.S. Justice Department intends to file a civil lawsuit against S&P based on ratings in 2007 of certain collateralized debt obligations, the company said today. The Justice Department and state prosecutors may file civil charges this week against S&P, owned by McGraw-Hill, alleging wrongdoing in its ratings of mortgage bonds in the lead up to the 2008 financial crisis, according to two people familiar with the matter.

“A DOJ lawsuit would be entirely without factual or legal merit,” the company said in a statement.

Chevron Corp. lost 1.1 percent to $115.20. UBS cut its recommendation on the second-largest U.S. energy company to neutral from buy, citing the stock’s recent rally. The shares have gained 6.5 percent this year.

Oracle Corp. slipped 3 percent to $35.13. The largest maker of database software agreed to buy Acme Packet Inc. for $1.7 billion, or $29.25 a share. Acme surged 24 percent to $29.59.

Acme’s tools to transmit voice and video via the Web may help Oracle challenge Cisco Systems Inc. in networking — a market that’s benefiting from the boom in mobile devices.

Merck & Co. lost 2.3 percent to $40.85. The second-largest U.S. drugmaker was cut to underweight from equalweight by Morgan Stanley, which cited concern the company’s Improve-It study of cholesterol drug Vytorin may fail when interim data is reviewed in March, hurting chances for experimental drug anacetrapib.

Sysco slumped 2.7 percent to $31.23. The distributor of food to restaurants, hospitals and schools reported second- quarter adjusted earnings that missed analysts’ projections by 1 cent.

Herbalife, the marketer of nutritional supplements that hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman has called a pyramid scheme, rose 47 cents to $35.54. Shares of the company rebounded after the FTC corrected a statement that erroneously said the company was the subject of a law-enforcement probe. The New York Post reported earlier, citing the FTC’s response to a freedom of information request, the company is the subject of a probe as it received as many as 192 complaints over the past seven years.

Humana Inc. jumped 4.7 percent to $78.86. The health-care company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.19 a share, exceeding the $1.07 a share estimated by analysts on average.

U.S. options trading posted its second-best start to a year on record after the stock market rally to near-record highs drove investors to seek protection from losses.

An average of 17.2 million options traded daily in the U.S. in January, the highest level for the start of a year except for a record in 2011, according to the Options Clearing Corp. The volume represents an 8.2 percent increase from the full-year 2012 average.

Investors are taking advantage of the cheapest options in 5 1/2 years to protect against losses as the U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter and the S&P 500 reached its highest valuation in 18 months. Options trading has also increased as investors try to boost returns by selling contracts in order to collect a premium, according to Marko Kolanovic, global head of derivatives and quantitative strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

When restraint and courtesy are added to strength, the latter becomes irresistible.

Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Formal  education will make you a living.  Self-education

will make you a fortune.

Jim Rohn, 1930-2009


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

February 1, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

February: the month of purification among the ancient Romans – Latin februum, meaning purgation.  The 2nd of February is Candlemas Day, the feast of the Purification of the Blessed Virgin Mary.  The Dutch used to call the month Spokkelmaand, meaning vegetation month.  The Anglo-Saxons knew it as solmonath, mud month.  In the French Revolutionary Calendar its equivalent from 21st January to 19th February was Pluviôse, meaning rain month.

Happy February everyone!

On this day in 1982, David Letterman’s late-night show premiered on NBC. –Steven Russolillo, WSJ, 02/01/13.

And also on this day in…

1920 – Canada’s Royal North West Mounted Police changed their name to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. The organization was commissioned in 1873.

1930 – The Times published its first crossword puzzle.

1951 – The first X-ray moving picture process was demonstrated.

1957 – P.H. Young became the first black pilot on a scheduled passenger airline.

1976 – “Sonny and Cher” resumed on TV despite a real life divorce.

1987 – Terry Williams won the largest slot machine payoff, at the time, when won $4.9 million after getting four lucky 7s on a machine in Reno, NV.

1996 – Visa and Mastercard announced security measures that would make it safe to shop on the Internet. 

Photos of the day February 1st, 2013

A man holds an umbrella on a jetty at Lake Starnberg in Niederpoecking near Munich, southern Germany. Victoria Bonn-Meuser/AP

People photograph the Roman numerals for NFL Super Bowl XLVII as they are silhouetted against the morning sky Feb. 1, 2013, in New Orleans.Charlie Riedel/AP

Market Closes for February 1st, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

14009.79 +149.21 

 

+1.08%

S&P 500 1513.17 +15.06 

 

+1.01%

NASDAQ 3179.098 +36.966 

 

+1.18%

TSX 12768.83 +83.63

 

+0.66%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 11191.34 +52.68

 

+0.47%

 

HANG 

SENG

23721.84 -7.69

 

-0.03%

 

SENSEX 19781.19 -113.79

 

-0.57

 

FTSE 100 6347.24 +70.36

 

+1.12

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.039 1.990
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.631 2.570
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.0149 1.9849
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.2178 3.1719

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.99642 0.99734

 

US  

$

1.00359 1.00266
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.35994 0.73533
US 

$

1.36482 0.73270

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1667.45 1663.60
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 97.77 97.49
BRENT 117.48 117.58

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, paring a weekly decline, after hiring in the U.S. increased in January and jumped more than previously estimated at the end of 2012.

BlackBerry, the company formerly known as Research In Motion Ltd., added 0.7 percent for the first gain in six days amid its introduction of a new line of smartphones. Barrick Gold Corp. and Goldcorp Inc. each increased 1.1 percent as gold prices rose. Domtar Corp., a maker of paper and pulp products, slumped 6 percent after earnings missed estimates.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 83.59 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,768.83 in Toronto. The benchmark gauge trimmed its decline for the week to 0.4 percent. The S&P/TSX has underperformed every developed market in the world except Spain over the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Looks like a good start to the month, the U.S. payroll numbers were encouraging,” Michael O’Brien, fund manager with TD Asset Management, said on the phone from Toronto. He oversees about $3 billion.

U.S. payrolls rose 157,000 following a revised 196,000 advance in the prior month and a 247,000 surge in November, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The revisions added a total of 127,000 jobs to the employment count in November and December. The jobless rate increased to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent.

Energy and raw-materials producers contributed most to gains in the S&P/TSX as nine of 10 industries advanced. Trading volume was 5.4 percent lower than the 30-day average.

Imperial Oil Ltd., the second-largest Canadian oil producer, added 0.3 percent to C$43.91 after reporting fourth- quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates. Record refining earnings of C$549 million, boosted by the difference between low-cost Western Canadian crude and the price of gasoline, offset lower gross oil output. Imperial is the largest refiner in Canada.

Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s largest oil producer, climbed 1.5 percent to C$34.42.

Barrick, the world’s largest gold producer, added 1.1 percent to C$32.10 and Goldcorp rose 1.1 percent to C$35.52.

Gold futures for April delivery climbed 0.5 percent to settle at $1,670.60 an ounce in New York, the third gain in four days.

BlackBerry, based in Waterloo, Ontario, rose 0.7 percent to C$13.01. The stock fell 26 percent this week, for the biggest weekly loss since 2008. The company’s new BlackBerry 10 line of smartphones, unveiled in New York on Jan. 30, does not go on sale in the U.S. until March, raising concern that the company will fall even further behind Apple Inc.’s iPhone and Google Inc.’s Android in its biggest market.

BlackBerry will begin trading under the ticker symbol BB in Toronto and BBRY in New York on Feb. 4.

Norbord Inc., a maker of wood-based panels used in home construction, jumped 5.3 percent to C$30.79, its biggest gain since Nov. 1. Stephen Atkinson, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, raised his rating for the stock to outperform, or the equivalent of a buy, from market perform.

The company reported adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter yesterday of 76 cents a share, compared with a consensus estimate of 73 cents, Bloomberg data show.

Domtar dropped 6 percent to C$78.04, its biggest loss since April 26, after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.31 a share, compared with estimates of $1.36 a share. Revenue of $1.33 billion fell short of forecasts of $1.35 billion.

US

By Rita Nazareth and Michael P. Regan

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks surged as growth in American payrolls was enough to ease concern about the economy without stoking speculation the Federal Reserve will hasten the end of stimulus. Industrial metals led gains in commodities and the yen weakened, while Treasuries reversed early gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 149.21 points to 14,009.79, climbing above 14,000 for the first time since 2007, while the S&P 500 Index jumped 1 percent to return to a five- year high following a two-day retreat. The 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to 2.02 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 Index slid to a one-month low as regulators lifted a ban on short selling, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index capped the best week since October 2011 as manufacturing expanded. The yen sank against all 16 major peers.

U.S. employers added 157,000 jobs in January and employment growth accelerated more than previously estimated at the end 2012, Labor Department figures showed, while other reports on consumer confidence, manufacturing and construction spending topped forecasts. The data eased concern about the world’s largest economy following a report earlier this week that showed gross domestic product shrank last quarter for the first time since the recession.

“The most positive part of the headline was the revisions,” said Liz Ann Sonders, the New York-based chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab Corp., which has $1.95 trillion in client assets. “That’s particularly good because of the negative 0.1 percent GDP report. The market is telling you that the economy is not as bad as many people believe. The fact the January was up very nicely typically bodes well for the rest of the year.”

The Labor Department revised earlier data to show a 196,000 increase in employment for December and a 247,000 surge in November, adding a total of 127,000 to the count for those two months. Labor also issued its annual benchmark update, which aligns data spanning from April 2011 to March 2012 with corporate tax records. The revision showed payrolls grew by an additional 424,000 workers, on an unadjusted basis, in that period. The jobless rate increased to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent.

“The unemployment rate has increased primarily due to individuals streaming back into the workforce, which is a sign of growth in confidence in the economic expansion, and perhaps the exhaustion of savings and employment benefits,” said Joseph Brusuelas, senior economist at Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News. “While there are encouraging signs, caution is the proper way for investors to proceed.”

Bank of America Corp., United Technologies Corp. and Verizon Communications Inc. jumped more than 2 percent to lead the Dow’s gain today.

All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 advanced, with financial, telephone and commodity companies climbing at least 1.2 percent to lead the rally. Tyson Foods Inc. gained 3.1 percent after profits topped forecasts. Zoetis Inc., the animal- health company owned by Pfizer Inc., surged 19 percent in its trading debut following an initial public offering. Merck & Co. slipped 3.3 percent after forecasting a drop in profit this year.

Exxon Mobil Corp. closed little changed after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that topped estimates. Earnings per share beat the average analyst estimate at some 73 percent of 254 companies in the index that have released results so far in the reporting season, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of U.S. consumer sentiment for January rose to 73.8 from 72.9 at the end of the previous month. Economists projected 71.5 for the gauge after a preliminary January reading of 71.3, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The index averaged 64.2 during the last recession and 89 in the five years before the 18-month economic slump that ended in June 2009.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index climbed to 53.1 last month from December’s 50.2, exceeding the highest estimate in a survey of 86 economists with a median forecast of  50.7.

About $2.6 trillion was added to the value of equities worldwide last month as earnings from companies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. beat estimates and U.S. lawmakers forged a deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic spending cuts and tax increases. Including dividends, the S&P 500 rallied 5.2 percent last month for its best January return since 1997.

Two-year Treasury yields erased an earlier drop to end little changed at 0.26 percent, while 30-year rates rose six basis points to 3.23 percent.

Bonds reversed gains after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, an advocate for slowing stimulus, said U.S. job growth in the past three months has been “an encouraging sign.” Bullard said he may urge cutting the pace of central bank asset purchases by the middle of the year if growth picks up as he expects.

“We should think about tapering or adjusting the program,” Bullard said today in an interview in Washington.

“If you get some good data for a couple of months,” then policy makers might say, “OK, we go to $75 billion or something like that,” he said, referring to monthly asset purchases that currently run at $85 billion a month.

Seventeen of the 24 commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI Index increased, sending the gauge up 0.5 percent to the highest level since September. Nickel, aluminum, copper and zinc added more than 1.4 percent each. Oil rose 28 cents to settle at $97.77 a barrel in New York to cap an eighth straight weekly gain, the longest streak since 2004.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.3 percent, trimming this week’s drop to 0.5 percent. The gauge climbed in January, capping an eighth month of gains and the longest winning streak since 1997. BT Group Plc rallied 6.5 percent as the U.K’s largest Internet service provider reported profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates. The regional benchmark pared gains earlier while German two-year notes rose after the European Central Bank said banks will repay 3.5 billion euros ($4.8 billion) of its emergency loans next week.

Spain’s IBEX 35 slipped 1.6 percent as the market regulator, known as CNMV, allowed a ban on short-selling stocks to expire yesterday. Banco Santander SA, Spain’s largest bank, fell 2.3 percent and Fomento de Construcciones & Contratas SA slid 9.1 percent.

The yen weakened for a third straight day against the dollar, headed for a 12th consecutive weekly decline. It depreciated as much as 1.2 percent to 92.80 per dollar, the lowest level since June 2010. Japan’s jobless rate rose and household spending declined, data showed today, underscoring the case for further easing.

The euro strengthened against 12 of its 16 major peers, climbing 0.6 percent to $1.3666. In addition to a report showing manufacturing shrank less than forecast in the currency region, other data showed the unemployment rate was 11.7 percent in December, less than forecast.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index added 1.4 percent, climbing 5.6 percent in the week, and Brazil’s Bovespa increased 1 percent to pare a second straight weekly loss.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!!

 

Be magnificent!

 

It is man’s social nature which distinguishes him from the brute creation.

If it is his privilege to be independent, it is equally his duty to be inter-dependent.

Only an arrogant man will claim to be independent of everybody else and be self-contained.

-Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Action is the foundational key to all success.

-Pablo Picasso, 1881-1973

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

January 31, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Seems Super Bowl weekend coming up is a really big deal this year.  Even all the financial news that streams across my screens features stories intermittently on it  throughout the day.

Here’s an article that might interest you by Ross Atkin:

Super Bowl XLVII: 15 pregame facts

San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1 ) versus Baltimore Ravens (13-6 ).

By ROSS ATKIN

Anybody worth their Super Bowl guacamole

dip already knows the megawatt story line of

this Sunday’s game: the coaching civil war

between Jim Harbaugh of the San Francisco

49ers and older brother John, who patrols

the Baltimore Ravens’ sideline. There’s much

more to know beyond this, however. Here’s a

Super Bowl snack-fact sampler:

1 – Kickoff on CBS is at 6:30 p.m., ET.

2 – San Francisco is 5-0 in previous Super Bowl

appearances. If the 49ers’ Quest for Six succeeds,

they will tie the Pittsburgh Steelers for

the most SB wins. Baltimore won in its only

previous trip to the Super Bowl in 2001.

3 – In some way, both teams pay tribute to

American culture, the 49ers to the California

Gold Rush of 1849, the Ravens to

the famous poem, “The Raven,”

penned by Baltimore resident

Edgar Allan Poe.

4 – The 49ers began their existence

in 1946 in the old All America

Football Conference. The Ravens

were relocated from Cleveland in

1996, a move that placated fans

after their beloved Colts bolted to

Indianapolis in 1984.

5 – The average margin of victory

in the last nine Super Bowls is 6.6

points.

6 – Sunday’s game will be played

in the Superdome in New Orleans.

That ties the Big Easy with Miami

for hosting of the most Super

Bowls: 10. Greater Los Angeles is

next with seven.

7 – The headliner for the 30-minute halftime

show will be pop diva Beyoncé.

8 – The only other time the Harbaugh brothers

matched coaching wits was last season, when

the Ravens beat the 49ers, 16-6.

9 – San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s

skills as both a passer and runner, plus his

uncommon coolness under pressure, have

taken the league by storm as he prepares to

start only his 10th National Football League

game. As a virtually unknown rookie out of

the University of Nevada, he threw only three

passes, but was pressed into service this season

after starter Alex Smith was injured.

10 – “Kaepernicking,” a new football buzz word,

has become so popular that the 49ers’ signal

caller has filed for a trademark on the word,

which was coined to describe his habit of kissing

a bicep after he scores a touchdown.

11 – Ray Lewis, the Ravens’ surefire Hall of Fame

middle linebacker and the only holdover from

Baltimore’s 2000 season championship team,

will retire after the Super Bowl.

12 – The Ravens lost four of their last five regular-

season games, but turned things around

when several injured players returned and the

team replaced its offensive coordinator.

13 – Baltimore’s rookie placekicker Justin

Tucker has been sensational, making 30 of 33

field goal attempts, including four of 50 yards

or more. His San Francisco counterpart, veteran

David Akers, has gone from being one of

the league’s best to one of its shakiest kickers,

making only 30 of 44 tries.

14 – The 49ers haven’t won more than two

games in a row this season. They did enjoy a

run of five nonlosing games in midseason, but

a 24-24 tie with the St. Louis Rams in Week 10

kept them from a five-game winning streak.

15 – Baltimore QB Joe Flacco has thrown eight

touchdown passes without an interception during

three playoff games. That places him on the

postseason gold standard of Joe Montana, who

threw 11 touchdown passes without a “pick” in

the 1989 postseason in leading the 49ers to an

NFL title.

face-off: Coaching brothers Jim Harbaugh (l.) of the San Francisco 49ers

and John of the Baltimore Ravens will match wits Sunday in New Orleans

Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway. -John Wayne

Market Closes for January 31st, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13860.58 -49.84 

 

-0.36%

S&P 500 1498.11 -3.85 

 

-0.26%

NASDAQ 3142.132 -0.176 

 

-0.01%

TSX 12685.24 -109.20 

 

-0.85% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 11138.66 +24.71 

 

+0.22% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23729.53 -92.53 

 

-0.39% 

 

SENSEX 19894.98 -110.02 

 

-0.55 

 

FTSE 100 6276.88 -46.23 

 

-0.73 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

1.990 1.995
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.570 2.572
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9849 1.9920
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1719 3.1822

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.99734 1.00228 

 

US  

$

1.00266 0.99773
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.35532 0.73783
US 

$

1.35878 0.73595

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1663.60 1677.15
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 97.49 97.94
BRENT 117.58 117.05 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Leslie Picker

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks slumped the most in three months as raw-material producers fell amid disappointing earnings and a drop in commodity prices, overshadowing faster- than-estimated expansion in the nation’s economy.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world’s largest fertilizer producer, fell 1.9 percent after forecasting first- quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates. BlackBerry, formerly known as Research in Motion Ltd., dropped 6.8 percent after Credit Suisse downgraded it to underperform. Goldcorp Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp. fell at least 2.2 percent after the metal slid the most in almost four weeks.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index retreated 109.20 points, or 0.9 percent, to 12,685.24 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The S&P/TSX has risen 2 percent this year, the fourth-worst performance among the world’s 24 developed markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The main equity benchmark for stocks in Israel has fallen 0.7 percent, Belgium’s equities rose 1.8 percent and Austrian shares added 1.9 percent.

“Everyone’s focused on earnings,” Anil Tahiliani, fund manager at Calgary-based McLean & Partners Wealth Management Ltd., which has C$900 million in assets, said in a phone interview. “We’re getting mixed signals from companies regarding forward guidance. Having a pullback is not surprising.”

About 81 percent of the 16 companies in the S&P/TSX that have released results so far in this reporting season have exceeded profit projections. Forty percent have surpassed sales estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Canada’s gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in seven months in November on gains in manufacturing, mining and energy. Output grew 0.3 percent to an annualized C$1.56 trillion ($1.56 trillion), following a prior gain of 0.1 percent, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg economist survey was for a 0.2 percent expansion in the month.

Potash fell 1.9 percent to C$42.37. First-quarter earnings will be 50 cents to 65 cents a share, the Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based company said today in a statement. The average of 17 estimates compiled by Bloomberg was for 69 cents.

The company said taxes will be higher in 2013 because of reduced capital spending. Fourth-quarter earnings and revenue also trailed analyst projections.

Gildan Activewear Inc., the top-performing company in the S&P/TSX last year, fell 3.1 percent to C$36.71. Tal Woolley, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, lowered his recommendation for the clothing supplier to sector perform, or hold, from outperform.

“Strong price appreciation is the primary reason for our downgrade,” Woolley said in a note to clients today. Gildan now trades more expensively than its peers based on his 2014 earnings forecast of $3 a share, he said.

Barrick Gold fell 2.2 percent to C$31.76 and Goldcorp dropped 2.5 percent to C$35.13. After the close of trading, Barrick Gold confirmed in an e-mail that it was considering the sale of its Barrick Energy unit and other non-core assets.

Gold futures for April delivery dropped 1.2 percent to settle at $1,662 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Raw- materials producers in the S&P/TSX slipped 1.5 percent to the lowest closing level in five months.

BlackBerry lost 6.8 percent to C$12.92, extending its decline for the week to 27 percent. BlackBerry stumbled in its introduction of the BlackBerry 10 lineup yesterday, disappointing shareholders with the lack of a firm U.S. release date and setting a price that may be too high to lure away customers from Apple Inc. and Google Inc.’s Android.

Kulbinder Garcha, of Credit Suisse, is the latest analyst to downgrade the smartphone maker. In all, five analysts recommend buying the stock, 20 have a hold rating, and 20 advise selling, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

US

By Lu Wang and Sarah Pringle

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, trimming the best January rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1994, on disappointing earnings as investors weighed economic data ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report.

United Parcel Service Inc. fell 2.4 percent after it forecast profit that trailed estimates as a weak global economy weighs on demand for package shipments. Dow Chemical Co. slid 7 percent after earnings missed forecasts as sales fell in Europe.

ConocoPhillips slipped 5.1 percent after saying oil and natural gas production will hit a low point this year. Qualcomm Inc. and JDS Uniphase Corp. rallied 3.9 percent and 17 percent, respectively, amid better-than-anticipated earnings.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,498.11 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow lost 49.84 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,860.58. About 7.1 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 16 percent above the three-month average.

“The market’s due for a breather, so unless the economic news was significantly above expectations or significantly below, you’re probably going to get a trading down market,” Eric Green, director of research at Penn Capital, which oversees about $7 billion in Philadelphia, said in a phone interview.

“The mixed data give some reason to take some profits potentially.”

The S&P 500 rose 5 percent this month, its best January performance since 1997, as lawmakers agreed on a budget compromise and companies reported better-than-estimated earnings. The Dow rallied 5.8 percent, the biggest January gain since 1994.

The benchmark index is about 4.3 percent below its record of 1,565.15 set in October 2007, while the Dow is about 2.2 percent from its all-time high. The S&P 500 has more than doubled from a 12-year low in 2009 as the Federal Reserve increased its bond purchases to keep interest rates low and spur growth.

U.S. benchmark indexes fell from five-year highs yesterday as the economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter.

Economic reports today showed that consumer spending in the U.S. climbed in December as incomes grew by the most in eight years, while claims for unemployment benefits increased more than forecast last week.

Data tomorrow may show employers added 165,000 workers this month, according to economists’ projections in a Bloomberg survey. The unemployment rate probably held at 7.8 percent.

“The outlook is fairly benign right now,” Brian Gendreau, a market strategist at Los Angeles-based Cetera Financial Group Inc., said by phone. The firm has about $20 billion in assets under management. “We are looking at moderate growth. Earnings picture is good. No one is talking about double-dip recession.”

Dow Chemical and UPS are among 37 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report earnings today. About 74 percent of the 237 companies that have released results so far exceeded profit projections, and 66 percent have surpassed sales estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Seven out of the 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell as consumer- discretionary, energy and raw-material shares declined the most, sinking at least 0.5 percent. Utilities, technology and phone companies rose the most.

UPS slid 2.4 percent to $79.29. Earnings per share for this year will be $4.80 to $5.06, the Atlanta-based company said.

Analysts projected $5.13, the average of estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The company’s growth is constrained by a sluggish worldwide economy and disputes over the U.S. debt ceiling that erode shipping demand and confidence, Chief Executive Officer Scott Davis said. Investors and analysts use the company as an economic gauge because it handles goods as varied as auto parts and pharmaceuticals.

Dow Chemical tumbled 7 percent, the most since September 2011, to $32.20. The largest U.S. chemical maker by sales reported a net loss of 61 cents a share. Profit excluding one- time items was 33 cents a share, trailing the 34-cent average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

ConocoPhillips slipped 5.1 percent, the biggest drop since August 2011, to $58. Daily output from continuing operations may decline to as little as 1.475 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2013 because of asset sales that are part of its restructuring, the company said.

Time Warner Cable Inc. tumbled 11 percent to $89.34. The second-largest U.S. cable-television operator forecast full-year profits short of analyst estimates.

Harman International Industries Inc. slumped 9.1 percent to $44.78. The maker of audio equipment for cars and homes forecast 2013 operating profit of $2.90 a share at most. That missed the average analyst estimate of $3.36.

Constellation Brands Inc., which has agreed to buy out partner Grupo Modelo SAB from its U.S. beer importing business, sank 17 percent to $32.36. The U.S. sued to block Anheuser-Busch InBev NV’s proposed $20.1 billion purchase of the half of Grupo Modelo it doesn’t already own, saying the deal would hurt competition and raise prices. Constellation’s agreement was struck in part to help make InBev’s acquisition more palatable to U.S. regulators, people familiar with the discussions said in June.

Qualcomm rose 3.9 percent to $66.02. The largest seller of semiconductors for mobile phones gave a second-quarter sales and profit forecast that exceeded analysts’ estimates, helped by strong sales of smartphones that run on its technology.

JDS Uniphase rallied 17 percent to $14.51. The maker of fiber-optic testing equipment reported second-quarter profit excluding some items of 18 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 14 cents. Needham & Co. raised the stock’s rating to buy from hold.

Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. climbed 12 percent to $76. The world’s largest baby formula maker reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts’ estimates.

Citrix Systems Inc. rallied 9.2 percent to $73.16. The software maker projected first-quarter revenue in the range of $670 million to $680 million. The average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for $669.2 million.

WMS Industries Inc. surged 51 percent to $24.75. Scientific Games Corp. agreed to buy WMS for $1.5 billion, the biggest deal in the leisure and recreational-products industry in almost two years, to create a global supplier of lottery equipment and slot machines.

Whirlpool Corp. added 6.1 percent to $115.38. The world’s largest appliance maker reported better-than-estimated profits for the fourth quarter and forecast full-year earnings of $9.25 to $9.75 a share, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $9.09.

Investors should consider buying stocks related to homebuilding, including Whirlpool, according to Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates Inc. The company’s shares will rally this year, even after they more than doubled in 2012, he said during a Bloomberg Television interview today.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Until a radical change takes place and we wipe out all nationalities,

all ideologies, all religious division, and establish a global relationship – psychologically and

inwardly first, then organized in the outside world – we shall go on with war.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Try not to become a man of success, but rather try

to become a man of value.

-Albert Einstein, 1879-1955


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7