Month: October 2012

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

I cut this editorial out of The Financial Times recently to share with you;  I think the writer is pretty clever:

Cameron’s lapsus

Prime minister strays from terra firma with Letterman

It is unlikely that the words veni, vidi, vici were running through David Cameron’s mind as he quit the set of the David Letterman talk show this week. Not because he failed to conquer the New York audience. But because Britain’s Eton-educated prime minister revealed a surprising ignorance of the most basic Latin.

High quality global journalism requires investment.

It is hard to believe that Mr. Cameron – whose alma mater, Oxford, is one of the most elite universities in the country – did not know the meaning of the words magna carta. When asked for a translation, the prime minister instead gave an ex tempore lesson on the significance of the 1215 document that enshrines individual freedom and, as he quite rightly said, sowed the seeds of Britain’s democracy. Pushed by his mischievous host to answer the question, Mr. Cameron was forced in extremis to admit defeat.

Whether this was bona fide ignorance or a quasi lapse of memory is up for debate.  Some are even suggesting that it was, de facto, an attempt to counter his posh image with a less elitist alter ego.  However, if this was Mr. Cameron’s strategy, a posteriori it was a mistake.  Even for those with no Latin education, per se, it does not take a great deal of imagination to work out the meaning of the words magna carta (great charter).

Mr. Cameron has made his mea culpa by promising to brush up on his Latin texts in future.  But this is not likely to be a priority in recession-hit Britain.  As he confessed, the British public is far from happy with the status quo.

The prime minister may have gone down well with a US audience charmed by his public school politeness.  But whether his appearance on one of America’s most popular chat shows will ipso facto boost his flagging standing in the polls at home is questionable.

Perhaps the gamble was that, in absentia, he could make the positive impression that eludes his party at home.  Instead, the risk is that his lapsus will return to haunt him, ad infinitum. –from the FT, September 28^th, 2012

 

On this day in 2007, the New York Yankees signed Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year, $275 million contract, the second 10-year contract of his career. The Yankee third baseman has three hits in 23 at bats this post season, with no home runs and no RBIs. –from The Wall Street Journal, October 15, 2012.

And also on this day in…

70 BC – Virgil, poet, was born.

1844 – Friedrich Nietzsche, philosopher, was born.

1881 – P. G. Wodehouse, writer, was born.

1905 -C. P. Snow, writer, was born.

1908 – John K. Galbraith, economist, was born.

1917 – Mata Hari was executed.

1924 – German ZR-3 flies 5000 miles, the furthest Zeppelin flight to date.

1941 – Odessa, a Russian port on the Black Sea which has been surrounded by German troops for several weeks, is evacuated by Russian troops.

1945 – Vichy French Premier Pierre Laval is executed by a firing squad for his wartime collaboration with the Germans.

1950 – President Harry Truman meets with General Douglas MacArthur at Wake Island to discuss U.N. progress in the Korean War.

1959 – duchess Sarah Ferguson was born.

1964 – Nikita Khrushchev is replaced by Leonid Brezhnev as leader of the Soviet Union.

 

If you risk nothing, then you risk everything. –Geena Davis

photos of the day

October 15, 2012

The sculpture ‘Irma’s White Head, 2008’ (r.) by Spanish artist Jaume Plensa is displayed in Place Vendome in Paris.

Francois Mori/AP

Indian Hindu devotees gather on the banks of the River Ganges on the auspicious occasion of Somvati Amavasya, or no moon day, in Allahabad, India. Amavasya is the new moon day that falls on a Monday in a traditional Hindu lunar calendar. It is a rare occurrence in a year and is considered highly auspicious.

Rajesh Kumar Singh/AP

 

Market Closes for October 15th, 2012:

 

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13424.23	+95.38
		+0.72%
S&P 500	1440.13	+11.54
		+0.81%
NASDAQ	3064.182	+20.068
		+0.66%
TSX	12229.96	+27.92
		+0.23%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8577.93	+43.81
		+0.51%
HANG  SENG	21148.25	+11.82
		+0.06%
SENSEX	18713.55	+38.37
		+0.21%
FTSE 100	5805.61	+12.29
		+0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.798	1.799
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.410	2.393
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6630	1.6560
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8451	2.8467

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.98137	0.98000
US   $	1.01899	1.02041
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.27127	0.78661
US  $	1.29541	0.77196

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1738.15	1754.48
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	91.85	91.86
BRENT	116.85	115.43

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Inyoung Hwang and Eric Lam

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks climbed, with the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index advancing in the last half hour of trading, as a rally in financial shares overshadowed a slump in commodities and a rise in household debt to a record.

Manulife Financial Corp., Canada’s largest insurer, advanced 1.5 percent. Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender, and Toronto-Dominion Bank rose at least 0.5 percent.

Argonaut Gold Inc. plunged 7.9 percent after agreeing to buy Prodigy Gold Inc. for C$320.3 million ($327.6 million).

Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. retreated 5.1 percent after the company rejected demands from the Mongolian government to renegotiate a mining deal.

The S&P/TSX rose 27.92 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,229.96 in Toronto, erasing earlier losses of as much as 0.5 percent.

The benchmark equity gauge slumped 1.8 percent last week for the biggest drop since June 1.

“There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines and people are skittish. You need some impetus to buy,” Irwin Michael, fund manager with ABC Funds, said in an interview from Toronto. His firm manages about C$800 million. “It’s to be expected debt will go up in tougher economic times, but we can’t get mesmerized by all the data.”

Canadian household debt compared with disposable income jumped to a record 165.8 percent in the second quarter, Statistics Canada said, heightening concerns borrowing will weigh on the country’s economic outlook.

The first-quarter figure was also revised to 164.2 percent from a previous 154.3 percent. Today’s report made historical revisions back to 1990, which raised the debt ratio in recent years due to a higher estimate of credit-market debt and reduced income.

Manulife added 1.5 percent to C$12.03. Royal Bank rose 0.7 percent to C$57.24 and TD Bank gained 0.5 percent to C$81.45.

Financial stocks contributed most to gains on the benchmark Canadian equity gauge as nine of 10 industries advanced on trading 25 percent lower than the 30-day average.

Raw materials stocks had the only decline among groups in the S&P/TSX, falling 0.2 percent. Gold for December delivery fell the most in three months, slipping 1.3 percent to settle at $1,737.60 an ounce in New York as reports showed U.S. retail sales increased last month more than forecast and inflation slowed in China.

Argonaut Gold tumbled 7.9 percent to C$9.65, its biggest loss since May 2011, after announcing a deal to buy Vancouver- based Prodigy Gold and its Magino gold project in northern Ontario. Prodigy Gold soared 42 percent to 98 cents, its highest level in almost four years.

Turquoise Hill Resources retreated 5.1 percent to C$8.12 after the company, along with its partner Rio Tinto Group, said they rejected a request by Mongolia to renegotiate a 2009 deal over the $6.2 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine.

London-based Rio Tinto owns 51 percent of Turquoise Hill, formerly Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.

Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest gold producer, slipped 0.8 percent to C$37.99 and Detour Gold Corp. retreated 4.1 percent to C$26.60.

Crude for November delivery fell 1 cent to settle at $91.85 a barrel in New York. Oil last week posted its first weekly gain in a month as increasing Middle East tension prompted concern that supplies may be disrupted.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the nation’s third-largest oil company by market value, lost 0.5 percent to C$30.10 and Talisman Energy Inc. declined 0.6 percent to C$12.70.

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded from its biggest weekly drop in four months, after American retail sales and Citigroup Inc.’s earnings topped estimates.

Citigroup soared 5.5 percent, the most since March, as results were helped by a surge in bond-trading revenue. Texas Instruments Inc. rose 3.5 percent on a report Amazon.com Inc. may buy its mobile chip unit. PulteGroup Inc. and KB Home jumped more than 4.9 percent as homebuilders rallied. Apple Inc. added 0.8 percent after falling as much as 0.9 percent earlier.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.8 percent to 1,440.13 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 95.38 points, or 0.7 percent, to 13,424.23. About 5.9 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 2 percent below the three-month average.

“The retail sales report looked a little bit better than expected,” Dan Veru, who oversees $3.5 billion as chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management LLC in Fort Lee, New Jersey, said in a phone interview. “The big question regarding earnings is whether expectations have come down enough so that companies can beat guidance.”

U.S. stocks rose as the Commerce Department said retail sales climbed 1.1 in September following a revised 1.2 percent increase in August that was the biggest since October 2010 and larger than previously reported. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.8 percent rise.

A separate report showed manufacturing in the New York region contracted for a third straight month in October as shipments and employment declined.

The S&P 500 sank 2.2 percent last week, the biggest retreat since June 1, as the International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecasts and earnings projections from Alcoa Inc. and AMD disappointed investors. The benchmark index has rallied 15 percent this year as the Fed announced a third round of bond purchases and companies posted better-than-expected earnings in the first half of 2012.

Some 84 companies in the S&P 500 release results this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Of the 38 companies in the benchmark index that have reported since Oct. 9, 27 posted earnings that exceeded analyst estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Citigroup jumped 5.5 percent to $36.66 today. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, 55, is cutting jobs and shedding unwanted assets, including a 49 percent stake in Smith Barney, as he seeks to return capital to shareholders and comply with new regulations on buffers against losses. Revenue from fixed-income trading surged 63 percent excluding accounting adjustments after tumbling last year during the European sovereign-debt crisis.

Texas Instruments, the largest maker of analog chips, jumped 3.5 percent to $28.22. Amazon.com is seeking to provide processors for smartphones and tablets by buying Texas Instruments’ mobile chip unit, Calcalist reported without saying where it got the information.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. added 0.4 percent to $2.75 after a person familiar with the matter said the second-largest maker of processors for personal computers plans to cut as many as 2,340 jobs, or about 20 percent of its workforce. Third- quarter sales will decline about 10 percent from the prior period, a bigger drop than previously forecast, the company said on Oct. 11.

Investors bought shares of companies most tied to economic growth. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, containing 30 U.S. stocks, gained 1.1 percent, while an S&P gauge of homebuilders rallied 3.6 percent as all of its 11 members advanced.

PulteGroup soared 5.1 percent to $16.40. KB Home jumped 4.9 percent to $15.32.

Apple, the world’s most valuable company, gained 0.8 percent to $634.76. Shares of the iPhone maker have fallen 9.6 percent from an all-time high of $702.10 on Sept. 19, driving the stock below its average price in the past 50 days for the first time since July. The shares are still up 57 percent this year.

Sprint Nextel Corp. lost 0.7 percent to $5.69, while phone stocks erased 0.6 percent for the only decline among 10 groups in the S&P 500. Softbank Corp. agreed to buy a 70 percent stake in Sprint as Japan’s third-biggest mobile-phone operator seeks growth overseas amid a declining local market.

AT&T Inc., the largest U.S. phone carrier, retreated 1.2 percent to $35.21 for the biggest decline in the Dow. MetroPCS Communications Inc., which Sprint has considered buying, fell the most in the S&P 500, dropping 4.6 percent to $11.33.

Hasbro Inc. fell 3.9 percent to $37.75. The world’s second- largest toymaker was downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Consol Energy Inc. decreased 2.2 percent to $34.36. The largest U.S. coal producer by market value announced an unexpected third-quarter net loss after idling mines in response to lower demand.

“The upcoming U.S. election and resolution of the fiscal cliff pose a significant risk for equities,” Marko Kolanovic, global head of derivatives and quantitative strategy at JPMorgan & Chase Co., wrote in a report today. “Higher taxes could negatively impact all equities with a proportionally larger impact on specific groups such as high-dividend yielding stocks.”

The so-called fiscal cliff refers to the $600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts that will kick in automatically in 2013 unless Congress fails to break a partisan deadlock and reach agreement on the nation’s budget deficit.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama will hold their second debate at 9 p.m. tomorrow at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. It will be a town hall format, which will allow audience questions on a full range of issues.

“In the U.S., the continuous threat to raise taxes has led to unprecedented levels of public policy uncertainty, dampening economic activity,” Barry Knapp, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Plc’s securities unit, wrote in a note to clients today. “If the small business sector believes pro-growth tax reform and entitlement restructuring will keep the tax issue off the table, then the cyclical recovery becomes more probable.”

The S&P 500 has gained 16 percent on average in election years when a Republican wins and an equal amount when the incumbent remains in the White House, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Each one has a special nature peculiar to himself which he must follow

and through which he will find his way to freedom.

Swami Vivekananda, 1863-1902

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

The mind reaches great heights

only by spurts.

-Vauvenargues, 1715-1747

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Happy rainy Sunday.  I was just admiring the roses cascading over the vines outside a window where we just had lunch and thought of this poem:

ROSES

– by Kathleen Jamie

This is the moment the roses

cascade over backstreet walls,

throng the public parks –

their cream or scrunched pinks

 

unfolding now to demonstrate

unacknowledged thought .

The world is ours too! they brave,

careless of tomorrow

 

and wholly without leadership

for who’d mount a soap-box

on the rose behalf?

 

‘I haggle for my little

portion of happiness.’

says each flower, equal, in scented mass.

 

On this day, October 12^th, in 1810, the first Oktoberfest was celebrated in Munich. The celebration honors the marriage of Bravarian Crown Prince Ludwig and Princess Therese of Saxe-Hildburghausen.

And also on this day in…

1492 – Christopher Columbus arrives in the New World.

1935 – Luciano Pavarotti was born,

1964 – USSR leads the space race.

1999 – The world population reached 6 billion.

2000 – Terrorists attack the USS Cole.

2002 – Terrorists kill 202 in Bali, Indonesia.

 

Trust your intuition and be guided by love. – Charles Eisenstein

 

photos of the day

October 14, 2012

Northern lights (aurora borealis) illuminate the sky over Anchorage, Alaska, on Saturday, shortly after midnight.  Dan Joling/AP

Illuminated Jack-o’-lanterns are seen at the Roger Williams Park Zoo in Providence, R.I. Some 5,000 carved pumpkins are on display for this year’s Jack-o’-lantern Spectacular, one of the nation’s largest Jack-o’-lantern shows.  Charles Krupa/AP

 

Market Closes for October 12th, 2012:

 

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13328.85	+2.46
		+0.02%
S&P 500	1428.59	-4.25
		-0.30%
NASDAQ	3044.115	-5.300
		-0.17%
TSX	12202.04	-31.91
		-0.26%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8534.12	-12.66
		-0.15%
HANG  SENG	21136.43	+137.38
		+0.65%
SENSEX	18675.18	-129.57
		-0.69%
FTSE 100	5793.32	-36.43
		-0.62%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.799	1.806
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.393	2.400
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6560	1.6699
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8317	2.8467

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.98000	0.97866
US   $	1.02041	1.02180
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.26910	0.78796
US  $	1.29500	0.77220

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1754.48	1767.50
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	91.86	92.07
BRENT	115.43	117.48

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, sending the benchmark index lower for the fourth time in five days as commodities slid, sending gold shares tumbling.

Avion Gold Corp. dropped 6.5 percent as shareholders approved Endeavour Mining Corp.’s C$389 million ($397 million) offer to purchase the company. Alacer Gold Corp. fell 5.2 percent as the price of the metal slumped the most in a week.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 31.91 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,202.04 in Toronto, its lowest close since Sept. 6. The benchmark equity gauge is down 1.8 percent this week, the biggest drop in four months.

Mining stocks contributed most to losses on the S&P/TSX as seven out of 10 groups declined. Gold for December delivery slipped 0.6 percent to settle at $1,759.70 an ounce in New York, extending the weekly decline to 1.2 percent.

“That magic number of $1,800 looks like it’ll be hard to break through,” said Ian Nakamoto, director of research with MacDougall MacDougall & MacTier Inc., in an interview from Toronto. The firm manages about $4 billion. “People also may be disappointed by earnings and the poor outlook.”

Companies in Canada and the U.S. began reporting third- quarter earnings this week, with Alcoa Inc. posting results that included a weakening aluminum outlook on an economic slowdown in China. Nakamoto said he was surprised the sentiment is so poor as he had expected weak earnings to be priced into the markets already.

Avion Gold lost 6.5 percent to 87 Canadian cents. The company said shareholders voted overwhelmingly in support of the offer from Endeavour Mining to buy the company.

Alacer Gold slumped 5.2 percent to C$6.20 and Centerra Gold Inc. fell 2.1 percent to C$12. Barrick Gold Corp. retreated 1.9 percent to C$38.31.

Gold futures declined amid concern that demand for bullion has weakened in China, the world’s largest buyer after India.

Gold imports from Hong Kong fell 29 percent in August from July amid a seasonal slowdown and as higher prices deterred buyers, data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government show.

OceanaGold Corp. rose 0.3 percent to C$3.36 after announcing it has signed an agreement with commodity trader Trafigura for the sale and purchase of copper concentrate from the mining company’s Didipio project in the Philippines.

Cenovus Energy Inc. lost 0.3 percent to C$33.40 as crude for November delivery fell 0.2 percent to $91.86 a barrel in New York, erasing earlier gains of as much as 0.6 percent. Prices gained 2.2 percent this week.

US

By Lu Wang

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks had the biggest weekly retreat since June as the International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecasts and projections from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Alcoa Inc. disappointed investors.

All 10 industry groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell for the week. Technology companies slumped 2.9 percent as AMD cut its sales forecast and Apple Inc. had its longest string of weekly losses since July. Dollar Tree Inc. led consumer- discretionary shares to a 2.9 percent drop after saying revenue will be at the low end of its estimate. Alcoa slid 4.4 percent after trimming its global aluminum outlook while Wells Fargo & Co. sank 4.4 percent amid narrower profit margins.

The S&P 500 tumbled 2.2 percent to 1,428.59 for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 281.30 points, or 2.1 percent, to 13,328.85. Both gauges had their biggest weekly retreat since June 1.

“We’re in this quarterly period of maximum uncertainty,” Dan Veru, who oversees $3.5 billion as chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management LLC in Fort Lee, New Jersey, said in a phone interview. “Earnings haven’t started in earnest yet, but the companies that have bad news to report are putting their news out. We’re just early in the process and that makes it tricky. I’m trying not to read too much into it.”

Stocks fell worldwide as the IMF reduced its global growth estimate for 2012 to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent, the slowest since the 2009 recession. The Washington-based lender warned of even slower expansion unless officials in the U.S. and Europe address threats to their economies. Economic reports during the week showed confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly jumped in October to the highest level since before the recession began five years ago and jobless claims fell to the lowest since 2008.

The S&P 500 has lost 0.9 percent since Alcoa unofficially started the earnings season with release of its third-quarter numbers on Oct. 9. S&P 500 profits declined 0.9 percent during the July-to-September period, the first income drop since 2009, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Among the 35 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 69 percent beat analysts’ estimates, the data show. Profits have exceeded their forecasts by an average 7.6 percent, more than double the rate for the previous quarter.

The S&P 500 has rallied 14 percent this year as the Federal Reserve announced a third round of bond buying to stimulate economic growth and pledged to keep its target interest rates near zero through at least mid-2015.

The Fed’s action “has changed the relationship between the economy and the stock market, and corporate earnings and the stock market,” Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based RW Baird & Co., which oversees $85 billion, said in an Oct. 11 phone interview. “It should be over the long term the economy dictates how well the stock market will do, but now the stock market dictates how well the economy is going to do.  It means that earnings are not as significant right now as it used to be.”

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, fell 4.4 percent to $8.69 for the week after reducing its 2012 forecast for global consumption of the metal by 1 percentage point on slowing Chinese demand. Stimulus spending may result in a pick-up in demand from China at the end of the fourth quarter, Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said on a conference call with analysts.

Technology shares in the S&P 500 tumbled the most since May. AMD lost 15 percent to $2.74. The second-largest maker of processors for personal computers cut its third-quarter revenue forecast, citing weak demand across all product lines. It joins other computer-component makers suffering fallout from sluggish growth and a shift in consumer tastes toward mobile devices, away from traditional desktop and laptop machines.

Apple retreated 3.5 percent to $629.71 for the third straight weekly loss. Earnings growth at the world’s most valuable company may slow to less than 10 percent beyond 2014 as demand in developed markets weakens and a shift to emerging markets may come at the cost of profit margins, Stuart Jeffrey, an analyst with Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in an Oct. 9 note to clients. He initiated coverage with a neutral rating.

Shares of the iPhone maker have fallen 10 percent from an all-time high of $702.10 on Sept. 19, driving the stock below its average price in the past 50 days for the first time since July. The shares are still up 55 percent this year.

A gauge of consumer-discretionary stocks fell 2.9 percent.

Dollar Tree, the U.S. operator of more than 4,500 discount stores, tumbled 14 percent to $40.11. Chief Executive Officer Bob Sasser said third-quarter sales will be at the low end of its forecast because of uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election, high gas prices and long-term unemployment. The company in August projected revenue of $1.71 billion to $1.75 billion for the period.

Home Depot Inc. fell 5.8 percent to $59.56. The largest U.S. home-improvement retailer was cut to market perform from outperform at Oppenheimer & Co. The stock, which surged more than 120 percent from a low in August 2011 through Oct. 5, is “due for a breather,” analyst Brian Nagel wrote in an Oct. 10 note.

Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, dropped 4.4 percent to $34.25. Net interest margin, the difference between what the bank makes on loans and pays for funds, fell by 0.25 percentage point to 3.66 percent during the third quarter, the company said. The drop was worse than guidance from Chief Financial Officer Timothy Sloan, who said on Sept. 11 that the margin might narrow by about the same as last year’s 0.17 percentage point.

Phone companies fell the most in the S&P 500, sinking 4.5 percent. Sprint Nextel Corp. said it’s in talks to take a “substantial” investment from Softbank Corp., Japan’s third- largest mobile-phone company, potentially shifting the balance of power in the U.S. telecommunications industry. MetroPCS Communications Inc., which Sprint has considered buying, slumped 6.1 percent to $11.88. AT&T Inc. erased 5.9 percent to $35.63. Sprint rallied 10 percent to $5.73.

Edwards Lifesciences Corp. slumped 20 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $87.10. The maker of artificial heart valves said third-quarter sales were lower than the company’s forecast.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. climbed 0.9 percent to a record $75.81. The world’s largest retailer said its back-to-school season was “very strong” and annual sales would grow as much as 7 percent next year. Jefferies & Co. lifted the stock to buy from hold.

Yum! Brands Inc., owner of the Taco Bell and KFC fast-food chains, rallied 5.2 percent to $69.45 after third-quarter profit topped analysts’ estimates on sales gains in the U.S. and China.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

 

You are unique as you are here and now.

You are never the same.  You will never be the same again.  You have never before been what you are now.

You will never be it again.

Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Happiness is not a state to arrive at – but a

manner of traveling.

-Margaret Lee Runbeck, 1905-1956

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

I recently finished reading A Tree Grows in Brooklyn by Betty Smith.  This book was first published in 1943 but has since been rereleased HarperPerennial Modern Classics with a forward by Anna Quindlen.  I picked it up after I read a review that noted that it was selected as one of the Books of the Century by The New York Public Library.  I highly recommend it.  Why?  Well to quote Anna Quindlen, “If, afterwards, someone asked, ‘What is the book about?’ ….A Tree Grows in Brooklyn is not the sort of book that  can be reduced to its plot line.  The best anyone can say is that it is a story about what it means to be human….this is that rare and enduring thing, a book in which, no matter what our backgrounds, we recognize ourselves.”

This is a poignant excerpt I took from this book:

“There was a worn clipping in the purse, a poem she had torn out of an Oklahoma newspaper.  It had been written by a poet who had lived in Brooklyn, gone to the Brooklyn public schools and, as a young man, had edited The Brooklyn Eagle.  She reread it for the twentieth time handling each word in her mind.

I am of old and young, of the foolish as much as the wise

Regardless of others, ever regardful of others.

Maternal as well as paternal, a child as well as a man,

Stuff’d with the stuff that is coarse, and stuff’d

with the stuff that is fine.

The tattered poem went into the envelope….On the outside she wrote:

Frances Nolan, age 15 years and 4 months.  April 6, 1917.

She thought:  ‘If I open this envelope fifty years from now, I will be again as I am now and there will be no being old for me.

There’s a long, long time yet before fifty years . . . millions of hours of time.  But one hour has gone already since I sat here . . . one hour less to live . . . one hour gone away from all the hours of my life.’ ”

On this day in 1975, “Saturday Night Live” made its debut on NBC.

And also on this day in…

1884 – Eleanor Roosevelt was born

1945 – Negotiations between Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek and Communist leader Mao Tse-tung break down. Nationalist and Communist troops are soon engaged in a civil war.
1950 – The FCC authorizes the Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) to begin commercial color TV broadcasts.
1968 – Apollo 7, with three men aboard, is successfully launched from Cape Kennedy.

1976 – The so-called “Gang of Four,” Chairman Mao Tse-tung’s widow and three associates, are arrested in Peking, setting in motion an extended period of turmoil in the Chinese

Communist Party.
1991 – Confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas begin.

Leadership should be born out of the understanding of the needs of those who would be affected by it. –Marian Anderson

photos of the day October 11, 2012A pigeon leaves a trail of claw prints on snow-covered ground in Russia’s Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk.

Ilya Naymushin/Reuters

Schoolchildren form a sparrow during a program to create awareness to save the bird in the southern Indian city of Chennai.

Babu/Reuters

Market Closes for October 11th, 2012:

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13326.39	-18.58
		-0.14%
S&P 500	1432.84	+0.28%
		+0.02%
NASDAQ	3049.415	-2.369
		-0.08%
TSX	12233.95	+21.53
		+0.18%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8546.78	-49.45
		-0.58%
HANG  SENG	20999.05	+79.45
		+0.38%
SENSEX	18804.75	+173.65
		+0.93%
FTSE 100	5829.75	+53.04
		+0.92%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.806	1.794
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.400	2.397
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6699	1.6742
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8467	2.8784

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.97866	0.98209
US   $	1.02180	1.01824
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.26523	0.79037
US  $	1.29285	0.77348

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1767.50	1761.50
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	92.07	91.25
BRENT	117.48	115.08

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam and Rita Nazareth

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, snapping a three-day slump in the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index, as U.S. jobless claims fell to a four-year low and the European Union was said to consider delaying tougher bank-capital rules.

Teck Resources Ltd., Canada’s largest diversified mining company, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. advanced at least 1 percent to pace gains among the biggest corporations.

Research In Motion Ltd., the maker of BlackBerry smartphones, climbed 1.6 percent. Keegan Resources Inc. increased 3.6 percent after being raised at Clarus Securities.

The S&P/TSX rose 21.53 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,233.95 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. It has rallied 8.5 percent from its low for the year on May 18, and is up 2.3 percent in 2012.

“The market had been down for three straight days and we were due for a bounce,” said John Kinsey, a fund manager with Caldwell Securities Ltd. in Toronto. The firm manages about C$1 billion. “Going forward, it’s going to depend on a couple of things — the European mess being one.”

Equities gained as data showed that applications for U.S. jobless benefits dropped to 339,000 in the week ended Oct. 6. Economists forecast 370,000 claims. The EU may push back the deadline for applying the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s tougher bank-capital rules for as long as a year, according to people familiar with the talks. The committee, the global standard-setting body that prepared the new rules, admitted this week that not all nations will meet the 2013 start date.

Canada’s new-home price index rose for a 17th consecutive month in August. A new Canadian leading economic indicator suggests the country won’t fall back into a recession. The MLI Leading Economic Indicator, released for the first time today by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, showed a 0.1 percent increase in August after gains of 0.2 percent the previous four months.

“There have been constant concerns and reports Canada’s economy would relapse into recession,” Philip Cross, a researcher with the institute, an Ottawa-based non-partisan policy research group, said in a statement. “The leading indicator showed a trend to slower growth, but no recession, something borne out by the data on output and employment.”

Six out of the 10 groups in the S&P/TSX rose today as health-care and commodity shares had the biggest gains. Teck Resources added 1.6 percent to C$30.39. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International climbed 1.1 percent to C$54.81. Research In Motion jumped 1.6 percent to C$7.73.

Keegan Resources rallied 3.6 percent to C$3.71. The company was raised to buy from hold at Clarus Securities by equity analyst Nana Sangmuah. The 12-month share-price estimate is C$7.50.

Nexen Inc. rose 0.2 percent to C$25.21. Canada said it extended its review of Cnooc Ltd.’s $15.1 billion takeover of Nexen for 30 days to undertake a “thorough and careful” assessment.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government is reviewing the bid, China’s largest ever foreign acquisition, under Canada’s foreign takeover law, which specifies transactions must have a “net benefit” for the country in order to win approval.

“Extensions to the review period are not unusual,” Industry Minister Christian Paradis said in an e-mailed statement today.

US

By Inyoung Hwang

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks erased gains as optimism about a drop in jobless claims faded and a slump in Apple Inc. dragged down technology shares.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index pared an advance of 0.8 percent as Apple extended its retreat from a September record to more than 10 percent. Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley advanced at least 1.4 percent as energy and financial stocks posted the biggest rallies out of 10 groups in the S&P 500.

Sprint Nextel Corp. jumped 14 percent as it said it’s in talks with Japan’s Softbank Corp. about a potential transaction.

The S&P 500 increased less than 0.1 percent to 1,432.84 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge fell to the lowest level in a month yesterday on concern that the global economy is slowing down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 18.58 points, or 0.1 percent, to 13,326.39. More than 6 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, in line with the three- month average.

“Weakness in Apple continues to be watched and traders are eyeing the S&P 50-day moving average as we slowly slip back towards that level,” Ryan Larson, the Chicago-based head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., said in an e-mail. His firm oversees $250 billion in assets.

The S&P 500 has slipped 2.3 percent since reaching an almost five-year high of 1,465.77 on Sept. 14. The benchmark index is less than 1 percent higher than its 50-day moving average of 1,427.11. Apple, the world’s most valuable company, sank 2 percent to $628.10, erasing an earlier rally of as much as 1 percent and helping to reverse gains for technology companies as a group in the S&P 500. The iPhone maker is down 11 percent since reaching its all-time high of $702.10 on Sept. 19.

Stocks rallied earlier today after Labor Department figures showed fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week. Applications for jobless benefits dropped 30,000 to 339,000 in the week ended Oct. 6, the fewest since February 2008. Economists forecast 370,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

One state accounted for most of the plunge in claims, a Labor Department spokesman said. The breakdown by state will show up in next week’s report. A separate report showed the U.S. trade deficit widened by 4.1 percent to $44.2 billion from $42.5 billion in July as slower global growth reduced demand for American exports, Commerce Department figures showed.

The claims report “is consistent with the improving jobs numbers and consumer confidence we’ve been seeing,” Brian Gendreau, a market strategist at El Segundo, California-based Cetera Financial Group Inc., said in a telephone interview. The firm has about $20 billion in assets under management. “It just adds to the picture of a U.S. economy that’s recovering. Not as fast as anyone would like, but still improving.”

European equities climbed earlier as Italy sold 3.75 billion euros ($4.8 billion) of its benchmark three-year bonds at 2.86 percent. Investors bid for 1.67 times the amount offered, up from 1.49 times last month. S&P yesterday cut Spain’s debt rating to one level above junk, citing economic and political risks as the government considers a second bailout.

Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, gained 1.4 percent to $9.34. Morgan Stanley rose 2.6 percent to $17.86. The European Union may push back the deadline for applying tougher bank-capital rules for as long as a year, after warnings from lenders that pressing ahead with the original timetable may drive up their costs, according to three people familiar with the talks.

Othmar Karas, the lawmaker leading work on the draft rules in the European Parliament, denied that any discussion took place in meetings today on a change of dates for when the rules set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision might enter into force.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. are scheduled to report quarterly earnings tomorrow. Analysts forecast Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. home lender, will post record profit.

The San Francisco-based company slid 0.1 percent to $35.18. JPMorgan gained 0.8 percent to $42.10.

Energy and financial companies jumped at least 0.5 percent among 10 groups in the S&P 500, while phone and consumer shares fell the most. Investors bought shares of companies most tied to economic growth as the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index gained 0.5 percent, halting three days of losses.

Sprint Nextel Corp. jumped 14 percent, the biggest gain in the S&P 500, to $5.76. The company said it’s in talks with Softbank for a “substantial” investment from the Japanese carrier, potentially shifting the balance of power in the U.S. telecommunications industry. Softbank, Japan’s third-largest mobile-phone company, is seeking control of Overland Park, Kansas-based Sprint, according to two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private.

Clearwire Corp., which has a joint venture with Sprint, rallied after a person familiar with the matter said Softbank may also buy the company. Shares surged 71 percent to $2.22.

MetroPCS Communications Inc., which Sprint has considered buying, slumped 3.3 percent to $11.64. The shares briefly erased losses earlier after Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported Softbank plans to acquire MetroPCS.

Fastenal Co. jumped 8.4 percent to $45.89. The largest U.S. retailer of nuts, bolts and other fasteners reported sales in the third quarter were $802.6 million, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $801.4 million. Daily sales growth in September was 13 percent, up from 12 percent in the prior month.

Oshkosh Corp. soared 11 percent to $29.90 after billionaire activist investor Carl C. Icahn offered to buy the U.S. military’s biggest supplier of blast-resistant trucks for $32.50 a share. Icahn is the largest shareholder of the Wisconsin-based company, according to Bloomberg data. Navistar International Corp., another truckmaker in which Icahn is the third-largest holder, also rose, increasing 2.8 percent to $22.61.

Realogy Holdings Corp. climbed 27 percent to $34.20 in its trading debut. The real-estate brokerage company controlled by Apollo Global Management LLC raised $1.08 billion in its initial public offering, pricing the shares at the top of the planned range. Shares had been offered for $23 to $27 each.

Dollar Tree Inc. lost 7.7 percent to $43.28, for the biggest decline in the S&P 500. Executives of the discount-store operator said in a presentation at its capital markets conference that sales in the third quarter will be at the low end of its forecast amid long-term unemployment, high gas prices and uncertainty from U.S. elections. The Chesapeake, Virginia- based company had predicted in August that revenue in the period will be between $1.71 billion and $1.75 billion.

Safeway Inc. declined 3.6 percent to $15.71. The second- largest U.S. grocery store chain posted third-quarter sales that trailed analysts’ estimates as bargain-hunting shoppers made it harder to boost prices.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

 

For you, now, meditation involves establishing within yourself

the reality of these two unavoidable rules – difference and change.

Try as hard as possible to convince yourself

that these two rules can neither be changed nor avoided.

Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974

As ever,

Carolann

Where do consequences lead?  Depends on

the escort.

-Stanislaw Lem, 1921-2006

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Something of note:

Chinese Ming banknote China, AD 1375.

This 14^th century banknote has the grand name ‘Great Ming Circulating Treasure Certificate’.  It was the Chinese who first printed a value on a piece of paper and persuaded everyone that it was worth what it said it was.  The whole modern banking system of paper and credit is built on this one simple act of faith. –from the FT.

The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it. -Henry David Thoreau, 1817-1862

And on this day in…

1813 – Giuseppi Verdi, composer, was born.

1911 – The Waters of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans meet in completing The Panama Canal following the blowing up of the Gamboa Dam.

1966 – The Beach Boys released Good Vibrations.

1970 – The Quebec Provincial Minister of Labour, Pierre Laporte, is kidnapped by terrorists.
1973 – Spiro Agnew resigns the vice presidency amid accusations of income tax evasion. President Richard Nixon names Gerald Ford as the new vice president. Agnew is later convicted and sentenced to three years probation and fined $10,000.
photos of the day October 10, 2012

A dancer performs during Taiwan’s National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei. This year marks the 101st anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China.

Pichi Chuang/Reuters

Buildings at the Gendarmenmarkt are illuminated during the opening day of the Festival of Lights in Berlin. 68 landmarks of the German capital, including boulevards, squares, towers, historical and modern buildings, are illuminated during the festival that runs till October 21.

Tobias Schwarz/Reuters

Market Closes for October 10th, 2012:

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13344.97	-128.56
		-0.95%
S&P 500	1432.56	-8.92
		-0.62%
NASDAQ	3051.783	-13.239
		-0.43%
TSX	12212.42	-61.15
		-0.50%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8596.23	-173.36
		-1.98%
HANG  SENG	20919.60	-17.68
		-0.08%
SENSEX	18631.10	-162.26
		-0.86%
FTSE 100	5776.71	-33.54
		-0.58%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.794	1.806
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.397	2.407
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6742	1.7132
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8784	2.9257

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.98209	0.97955
US   $	1.01824	1.02087
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.26268	0.79197
US  $	1.28571	0.77778

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1761.50	1764.00
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	91.25	92.39
BRENT	115.08	114.64

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell to the lowest level in almost five weeks after Alcoa Inc. cut its aluminum outlook on weakening demand in China, the world’s biggest commodities consumer.

Niko Resources Ltd., an oil and gas explorer, slumped 8.5 percent. Enbridge Inc. retreated 1 percent. AuRico Gold Inc. surged 21 percent after selling mining properties in Mexico to billionaire Carlos Slim’s Minera Frisco SAB. Centerra Gold Inc. jumped 5.1 percent after analysts at Canaccord Genuity raised the stock’s rating.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index retreated 61.15 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,212.42 in Toronto, its lowest level since Sept. 6. The benchmark equity gauge is up 2.2 percent this year. Energy and bank shares contributed the most to losses in the S&P/TSX as seven of 10 industries retreated.

“Alcoa is rephrasing what we’ve been seeing all along,” Pat McHugh, senior managing director and Canadian equity strategist with Manulife Asset Management Ltd., said from Toronto. The firm manages about $218 billion. “China is slowing down and Europe is in recession and getting worse.”

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, cut its forecast for global consumption of the metal by 1 percentage point on slowing Chinese demand, the company said yesterday. The International Monetary Fund said today European banks may need to sell as much as $4.5 trillion in assets through 2013 if policy makers fall short of pledges to stem the fiscal crisis, up 18 percent from its April estimate.

Niko Resources, the worst-performing stock in the S&P/TSX this year, fell 8.5 percent to C$14.93. Enbridge retreated 1 percent to C$39.46. Suncor Energy Inc. declined 1.2 percent to C$32.29 and Cenovus Energy Inc. lost 1.5 percent to C$33.68.

Crude for November delivery slipped 1.2 percent to settle at $91.25 a barrel in New York.

AuRico Gold jumped 21 percent to C$7.60, its biggest gain since November 2008. The company agreed to sell its Ocampo mine and several other projects under development in the Chihuahua and Nayarit states to Slim’s Minera Frisco for $750 million.

Slim is the world’s richest person, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Centerra advanced 5.1 percent to C$12.38 after Steven Butler, analyst with Canaccord Genuity, raised the stock to a buy from a hold and increased his price target to C$16.50 from C$8.70 on reduced risk of government intervention at its Kumtor mine in Kyrgyzstan.

“The shares offer good risk-reward at current prices,” he said in a research note today.

Kinross Gold Corp., Canada’s third-largest gold producer by sales, gained 0.7 percent to C$10.25 after saying Chief Financial Officer Paul Barry will leave the company to pursue other interests. Kinross fired its chief executive officer, Tye Burt, two months ago, replacing him with J. Paul Rollinson.

Keegan Resrouces Inc., a metals exploration company, rose 18 percent to C$3.58, the most since February 2009 after increasing its estimate for the amount of gold at the Esaase project in Ghana. The company said the site has a measured and indicated gold resource of 3.83 million ounces, compared with a September 2011 estimate of 3.64 million ounces.

Gold futures for December delivery rose 10 cents to settle at $1,765.10 in New York.

US

By Inyoung Hwang

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the lowest level in a month, as Alcoa Inc.’s forecast fueled concern over corporate earnings and global economic growth.

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, lost 4.6 percent after cutting its outlook for global demand for the metal.

Chevron Corp. slid 4.2 percent after saying third-quarter earnings were “substantially” lower than the previous period.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. paced gains with consumer stocks, rising to a record price after saying it had a “very strong” back-to- school season and will add U.S. stores. Yum! Brands Inc. rallied 8 percent after profit beat analyst estimates.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.6 percent to 1,432.56 in New York.

The benchmark gauge fell 1 percent yesterday, and is down 2 percent over four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 128.56 points, or 1 percent, to 13,344.97. More than 5.9 billion shares changed on U.S. exchanges today, about 1.5 percent below the three-month average.

“The fear is that this is going to be a really bad earnings season,” Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust Co. in Radnor, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $6.5 billion in assets. “If S&P 500 earnings come in better than expectations, the markets are going to view that positively. We’re off to a good start but we’ve got a long way to go.”

Alcoa unofficially marked the start of a third-quarter earnings season that is forecast to show S&P 500 profits and sales fell in unison for the first time in three years, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Per- share earnings in the S&P 500 are projected to have dropped 1.7 percent after they were little changed in the second quarter.

Global equities slumped as China car sales unexpectedly shrank for the first time in eight months. French President Francois Hollande and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy called on nations such as Germany to honor commitments on a banking union made at the European Council in June. The International Monetary Fund said European banks may need to shrink assets if policy makers fall short of pledges to stem the fiscal crisis.

The S&P 500 briefly pared losses after the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book business survey that the U.S. economy expanded “modestly” last month. The benchmark equity measure has retreated for the past four days as the IMF reduced estimates for global economic growth. The index has still rallied 12 percent from this year’s low on June 1 as the Fed unveiled a third round of bond purchases.

Alcoa lost 4.6 percent to $8.71. The first member of the Dow average to report results trimmed its forecast for growth in aluminum consumption this year to 6 percent from 7 percent amid slowing demand from China. The company posted third-quarter earnings and sales yesterday that exceeded analysts’ projections.

Investors sold shares of companies most tied to economic growth. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, a gauge of 30 U.S. stocks, lost 0.8 percent to decline for the third straight day.

Nine out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell, as energy companies slumped 1.8 percent for the biggest decline. Tesoro Corp. erased 5.6 percent to $38.70. Material stocks retreated 1 percent for the second-largest drop.

Chevron slipped 4.2 percent to $112.45 after the company said earnings dropped in the third quarter from the previous period amid lower oil output because of Hurricane Isaac, falling crude prices and weaker U.S. refining returns. Oil and natural gas output declined 4 percent to the equivalent of 2.518 million barrels a day in June and July from 2.624 million for the entire second quarter. Chevron also said a shuttered crude-processing unit at a California refinery won’t resume operations before the end of the year.

H&R Block Inc. retreated 5.4 percent to $16.67. The largest U.S. tax preparer hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to advise on alternatives for its bank. The Kansas City, Missouri-based company is considering dropping its designation as a savings and loan holding company after the Fed proposed rules requiring such firms to keep additional capital.

Monster Beverage Corp. erased 5.5 percent to $53.63. The largest U.S. energy drink maker by sales volume was cut to hold from buy by Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Mark Astrachan, who cited greater-than-anticipated deceleration in revenue growth through the first quarter.

Cummins Inc. slid 3.4 percent to $87.79. The maker of engines said it expects to cut as many as 1,500 jobs by the end of 2012 and lowered its forecasts for revenue and profit.

Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest construction and mining equipment maker, fell 1.9 percent to $83.16.

MetroPCS Communications Inc. sank 3.8 percent to $12.04.

Sprint Nextel Corp. is holding off on an immediate counterbid for MetroPCS to gain time to scrutinize the carrier’s planned combination with T-Mobile USA Inc., said people familiar with the situation.

Wal-Mart rose 1.7 percent, the most in the Dow, to a record $75.42 after the world’s largest retailer said in an investor community meeting it had a “very strong” back-to-school season that will continue into the holiday period. The company also said it will add 205 U.S. locations in 2013 and 240 in 2014.

McDonald’s Corp., the biggest restaurant chain, gained 0.3 percent to $92.40.

Costco Wholesale Corp. added 1.9 percent to $101.56. The largest U.S. warehouse-club chain posted fiscal fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates as low prices drove sales. Earnings in the quarter ended Aug. 31 were $1.39 a share.

Analysts projected $1.31, the average of 25 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Third-quarter earnings at the eight food and consumer- staples retailers in the S&P 500 increased 8 percent, according to analysts’estimates.

“One should look toward consumer companies as a beacon of light for improved earnings in this quarter, but the overall theme that will be echoed from management will be of a more conservative nature,” Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based fund manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $138 billion in client assets, said by phone.

“It’s going to be a deceleration from previous quarters.”

Yum jumped 8 percent to $70.99. The owner of the Taco Bell and KFC fast-food chains reported a 23 percent increase in third-quarter net income as sales climbed in the U.S. and China.

Profit excluding some items was 99 cents a share, compared with the 97 cent average of 22 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Apple Inc., the world’s most valuable company, climbed 0.8 percent to $640.91 after four straight losses that extended the iPad maker’s retreat from a record high on Sept. 19. to 9.4 percent.

FedEx Corp. rose 5.2 percent to $89.99 after setting a goal to boost profit by $1.7 billion within three years, primarily by cutting costs, as customers shift to slower and cheaper deliveries from overnight shipments.

True Religion Apparel Inc. surged 22 percent to $25.71. The maker of the namesake designer jeans said it will explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale. The board has formed a special committee to consider options after receiving interest from third parties about a possible transaction, Vernon, California-based True Religion said today in a statement.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

 

The real ornament of woman is her character, her purity.

Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948

 

As ever,

Carolann

A thankful heart is not only the greatest virtue, but

the parent of all the other virtues. –Cicero, 106 BC-43 BC

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Just back from the annual World Business Forum in NYC and impressed as always by the progressive changes in the world of business.  This year the themes were mostly about technology transformation and interestingly – and of course, encouraging – the idea that successful businesses today and in future have to be more collaborative rather than fiercely competitive as in the past.

Strolling through Soho on Saturday, we came across an art gallery that was featuring art by John Lennon as a tribute to his birthday this month….many wonderful pieces, lovely to reminisce about some of the great lyrics he wrote, all of which were on display in his handwriting…

October 9^th, 1940 – John Lennon was born.

Blackbird singing in the dead of night

Take these broken wings and learn to fly

All your life

You were only waiting for this moment to arise…

-John Lennon and Paul McCartney

And also on this day in…

1941 – President Franklin D. Roosevelt requests congressional approval for arming U.S. merchant ships.
1946 – Eugene O’Neill’s play The Iceman Cometh opens at the Martin Beck Theatre in New York.
1949 – Harvard Law School begins admitting women.
1950 – U.N. forces, led by the First Cavalry Division, cross the 38th parallel in South Korea and begin attacking northward towards the North Korean capital of Pyongyang.
1983 – The president of South Korea, Doo Hwan Chun, with his cabinet and other top officials are scheduled to lay a wreath on a monument in Rangoon, Burma, when a bomb explodes. Hwan had not yet arrived so escaped injury, but 17 Koreans–including the deputy prime minister and two other cabinet members–and two Burmese are killed. North Korea is blamed.

A successful person is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at him or her. – David Brinkley

photos of the day October 9, 2012

A ray of sunlight illuminates sunflowers, on display at a market stand near Waag, the historical weighing station, in the center of Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Peter Dejong/AP

Elsie Davies of London poses for her parents next to a giant pumpkin at the Royal Horticultural Society’s London Harvest Festival. The pumpkin, which won first prize in the giant pumpkin competition, was grown by horticulturalist Stuart Paton, of Pennington, Hampshire, and weighs 1054 pounds.

Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters

Market Closes for October 9th, 2012:

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13473.53	-110.12
		-0.81%
S&P 500	1441.48	-14.40
		-0.99%
NASDAQ	3065.022	-47.331
		-1.52%
TSX	12273.57	-145.42
		-1.17%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8769.59	-93.71
		-1.06%
HANG  SENG	20937.28	+112.72
		+0.54%
SENSEX	18793.36	+84.38
		+0.45%
FTSE 100	5810.25	-31.49
		-0.54%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.806	1.807
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.407	2.404
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.7132	1.7323
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.9257	2.9638

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.97955	0.97867
US   $	1.02087	1.02179
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.25898	0.79429
US  $	1.28539	0.77798

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1764.00	1781.95
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	92.39	89.88
BRENT	114.64	112.92

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell the most in three months after the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts and warned of “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown.

Research In Motion Ltd. lost 5.5 percent after Jefferies & Co. said the release of the company’s BlackBerry 10 phone may be delayed. Taseko Mines Ltd. slid 5.5 percent as analysts at Canaccord Genuity lowered the stock’s rating to hold.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index slumped 145.42 points, or 1.2 percent, to 12,273.57 in Toronto, its biggest loss since July 6. The benchmark equity gauge is up 2.7 percent this year. Raw-materials stocks contributed most to declines on the S&P/TSX as all 10 industries retreated.

“The weight of all these macro issues are bearing down on people, be it whether Spain will ask for money, will Germany do anything and then this report reducing global GDP, it’s all weighing on the market,” said Robert Sneddon, president of Oakville, Ontario-based CastleMoore Inc., in a phone interview.

“And we’re seeing in the Canadian market some talk of housing pressure starting to build.”

Canadian housing starts fell 2.3 percent to an annual pace of 220,215 from a revised 225,328 in August, Ottawa-based Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a median pace of 205,000 starts.

The world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said today, compared with July predictions of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013.

Taseko Mines slumped 5.5 percent to C$3.12 after Orest Wowkodaw, an analyst with Canaccord Genuity, cut the company’s rating to hold from buy, citing recent price gains. The copper and molybdenum mining company has risen 12 percent this year, compared with a 2.3 percent loss for the S&P/TSX Materials Index.

Endeavour Silver Corp. fell 6.2 percent to C$8.97 after the company said an illegal work stoppage at its El Cubo mine in Guanajuato, Mexico, is preventing management and personnel from reaching parts of the site. Fortuna Silver Mines Inc., which also mines in Mexico, declined 7.6 percent to C$4.60.

RIM fell 5.5 percent to C$7.62 in Toronto after Peter Misek, an analyst with Jefferies, said the company probably won’t release BlackBerry 10 smart phones until March, missing the fiscal fourth quarter. The delay would push back the timing of any licensing deals with other companies until after the release, Misek said in a research note today.

Alacer Gold Corp. fell 4.2 percent to C$6.68 and Novagold Resources Inc. decreased 4.9 percent to C$4.87. Gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.6 percent to settle at $1,765 an ounce in New York, its lowest in more than a week.

Crew Energy Inc. jumped 5 percent to C$7.93, its highest price in six months, after Michael Harvey, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, raised the stock to an outperform from sector perform rating and increased the price target to C$10 from C$7.50 on the view its Montney natural gas asset base is undervalued.

Trilogy Energy Corp. rose 1.7 percent to C$27.68, as crude for November delivery increased 3.4 percent to settle at $92.39 a barrel in New York.

US

By Paul Dobson and Inyoung Hwang

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks slid amid concern corporate earnings will disappoint investors and after the International Monetary Fund cut growth forecasts. Oil surged as Mideast tensions flared; Treasuries rose and the euro weakened.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 1 percent to 1,441.48 at 4 p.m. in New York while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5 percent. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities was 1.6 percent higher as oil surged more than 3 percent after Turkey sent more weapons to the Syrian border. U.S. 10-year note yields dropped three basis points to 1.71 percent, while the dollar climbed versus 12 of its 16 major peers.

The U.S. third-quarter earnings season began with Alcoa Inc. today, the fifth anniversary of the S&P 500’s record close at 1,565.15. The IMF said the world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the slowest pace since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year. The euro slid versus most major peer as a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to reassure investors an accord is imminent on Greece’s next aid installment.

“There’s so much pessimism over earnings that there’s room for upside with any positive surprise,” Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management, which oversees $170 billion, said in a telephone interview. “Overall I think traders are too pessimistic. Even with the IMF economic numbers we got, those are still pretty good numbers. The IMF is forecasting global growth next year will be above 3 percent. That’s probably higher than what most people are fearing at the moment.”

The IMF’s forecasts were reduced from a July prediction of 3.5 percent for 2012 and 3.9 percent next year.

Alcoa climbed 1.2 percent in extended trading. After the close of exchanges, the largest U.S. aluminum producer reported earnings and sales that exceeded analysts’ estimates after reporting improved productivity at its primary metals and engineered-products units. The company reduced its forecast for global aluminum consumption this year by 1 percentage point to 6 percent.

Apple Inc. closed down 0.4 percent, paring an earlier plunge of 2.3 percent that extended its decline from a record $702.10 on Sept. 19 to more than 10 percent. Apple is likely to face “increasing challenges” as smartphone growth in developed markets slows, Nomura Holdings Inc. analyst Stuart Jeffrey said today.

Analysts’ average estimate for Apple’s fiscal fourth- quarter adjusted earnings have fallen as much as 15 percent this year to $8.92 a share from $10.55 in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company reports results on Oct. 25.

Technology shares in the S&P 500 slid 1.3 percent and were among the biggest drag among 10 groups. Intel Corp., the world’s largest semiconductor maker, slipped 2.7 percent as Sanford C.

Bernstein & Co. downgraded the shares. Edwards Lifesciences Corp. sank 21 percent after saying preliminary third-quarter sales would be lower than forecast. Netflix Inc. tumbled 11 percent after Bank of America Corp. lowered its rating to underperform.

Earnings at companies in the S&P 500 are projected to fall 1.7 percent in the third quarter in the first decline since 2009, according to analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

Wagers that U.S. stocks will move in lockstep have dropped to a four-year low on speculation investors will focus on company results during earnings season.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index has fallen 41 percent this year and reached 45.42 last week, the lowest level since October 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge uses options to measure expectations about whether S&P 500 companies will move in unison.

The S&P 500 index closed yesterday at 1,455.88, less than 7 percent below the 2007 record. The measure has recovered after plunging 57 percent to a 12-year low on March 9, 2009, as the subprime mortgage crisis spread among financial firms. Consumer discretionary shares and financial firms, which advanced more than 150 percent, have led the gains.

Banks, lenders and insurers are still down 55 percent since October 2007, more than three times any other industry, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Even after doubling, U.S. stocks are trading at 14.7 times earnings, about a 10 percent discount to their five-decade average ratio, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Treasuries rose the most in three weeks as the U.S. sale of $32 billion in three-year notes met record demand after the International Monetary Fund cut its economic forecasts, boosting the appeal of the safest assets. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was a 3.96, topping the previous high last month of 3.94 and an average of 3.56 for the previous 10 sales.

Existing three-year yields were little changed at 0.34 percent.

European banks fell 0.9 percent as a group and were the biggest drag on the Stoxx 600 among 19 groups. Nationalized Spanish lender Bankia dropped 9.8 percent as Expansion reported that parent company BFA will book losses of more than 4.5 billion euros ($5.8 billion) this year.

The euro retreated against 13 of 16 major peers, weakening 0.7 percent to $1.2872, as a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to reassure investors an accord is imminent on Greece’s next aid installment.

The two leaders stood side by side at a press conference as protesters massed outside the Parliament building in a capital on virtual lockdown. Merkel has become the face of austerity in a country suffering a fifth year of recession, which many Greeks blame on German-led conditions attached to emergency loans.

European finance ministers met for second day in Luxembourg after yesterday declaring operational the permanent aid fund, the 500 billion-euro European Stability Mechanism.

Ten-year Spanish yields increased 11 basis points to 5.82 percent, while Italian rates were up three points at 5.11 percent.

Of the 24 commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI Index, 15 advanced. Crude rebounded 3.4 percent to $92.39 a barrel as Turkey sent more tanks and missile defense systems to the Syrian border yesterday. Brent oil increased 2.4 percent to $114.50.

Brent touched a $23.10 a barrel premium to West Texas Intermediate oil traded in New York, the highest intraday level since Oct. 21, 2011, according to Bloomberg calculations of exchange data, before slipping back to $22.11.

Iranian authorities are still seeking to stabilize the currency market days after a plunge in the value of the rial and protests that have left transactions by exchange houses almost at a halt. The central bank today announced a rate of 25,480 rials to the dollar for trading in the government’s newly opened exchange center, according to the state-run Mehr news agency.

Today’s official rate is lower than yesterday’s, which the government had set at 25,550 rials against a dollar.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2 percent as investors bet the government will come up with steps to support the market. South African’s rand strengthened 1.4 percent to 8.7723 per dollar, climbing for the first time in five days, after the currency’s decline to the weakest in more than three years yesterday.

Have  a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

 

Love implies generosity, care, not to hurt another,

not to make them feel guilty, to be generous, courteous,

and behave in such a manner that your words and thoughts are born out of compassion.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986

As ever,

Carolann

 

Difficulty is the excuse history never accepts.

-Edward R. Murrow, 1908-1965

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Happy Thanksgiving weekend everyone!

Did you know that Canadians eat more turkey on Christmas than they do at Thanksgiving? According to Turkey Farmers of Canada, last year Canadians consumed 4.4 million turkeys and at Thanksgiving, 3 million. Why do you think that is? Is it because Christmas get-togethers tend to be bigger than at Thanksgiving? All in all, Thanksgiving is a time to be thankful: for friends, family, and health – what are you thankful for this year?

And also on this day in…

1970 – Anwar Sadat took office as President of Egypt replacing Gamal Abdel Nassar. Sadat was assassinated in 1981.

1974 – American David Kunst completed the first journey around the world on foot. It took four years and 21 pairs of shoes. He crossed four continents and walked 14,450 miles.

1986 – “Business World” began airing on ABC-TV.

1988 – In a debate between candidates for vice president of the U.S., Democratic Lloyd Bentsen told Republican Dan Quayle, “You’re no Jack Kennedy.”

1989 – The Dalai Lama (Lhama Dhondrub, Tenzin Gyatso) was named the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for his nonviolent campaign to end the Chinese domination of Tibet. Gyatso was the 15th Dalai Lama.

1990 – The Glasgow Royal Concert Hall opened.

“Don’t be afraid to give up the good to go for the great.” – John D. Rockefeller

photos of the day October 5^th, 2012

Indian Missile Dhanush takes off from a naval ship in the Bay of Bengal sea near Chandipur coast, about 125 miles from Bhubaneswar, India. India successfully test-fired the indigenously developed nuclear-capable, short-range ballistic missile from a naval ship off its eastern coast, according to a news agency.

South Korean performers are suspended in midair to form a human net in a performance, called ‘Aphrodite’ by Spanish theater company La Fura Dels Baus, in Seoul, South Korea.

Dagmar, the Rothschild giraffe, nuzzles her newborn calf in their enclosure at Chester Zoo in Chester, northern England.

Market Closes for October 5^th, 2012:

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13610.15	+34.79
		+0.26%
S&P 500	1459.52	-1.88
		-0.13%
NASDAQ	3136.186	-13.273
		-0.42%
TSX	12414.28	-33.40
		-0.27%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8863.30	+38.71
		+0.44%
HANG  SENG	21012.38	+104.43
		+0.50%
SENSEX	18938.46	-119.69
		-0.63%
FTSE 100	5871.02	+43.24
		+0.74%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.807	1.764
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.404	2.369
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.7323	1.6146
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.9638	2.8848

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.97867	0.98091
US   $	1.02179	1.01946
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.27583	0.78380
US  $	1.30374	0.76702

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1781.95	1791.05
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	89.88	91.71
BRENT	112.92	108.40

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, paring a weekly gain, as a drop in oil and metal prices offset better-than- forecast employment data.

Yamana Gold Inc. lost 3.1 percent as the precious metal fell. Primero Mining Corp. soared 36 percent after getting a positive ruling from Mexican tax authorities. Glentel Inc. rose 7.3 percent for a second day of gains after securing a deal to handle mobile-device sales for Target Corp.’s new Canadian stores.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index retreated 28.69 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,418.99 in Toronto, paring earlier losses of as much as 0.5 percent. The benchmark equity gauge rose 0.8 percent this week, snapping two weeks of losses.

“Toronto is lagging due to the underperformance of gold stocks,” said Greg Taylor, fund manager with Aurion Capital Management, in an interview from Toronto. The firm manages about C $8 billion ($8 billion). “There’s a fair bit of concern heading into earnings next week, so the fact the market is up a bit this week is a win.”

Canadian employment rose by 52,100 following an August gain of 34,300, primarily on more full-time hires, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The jobless rate rose to 7.4 percent from 7.3 percent as the labor force grew by 72,600. The job gain exceeded all 24 forecasts in a Bloomberg economist survey with a median of 10,000, while the unemployment rate was forecast to be unchanged.

The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009 as employers hired more part-time workers.

Yamana Gold slipped 3.1 percent to C$18.60 and Kinross Gold Corp. retreated 2.5 percent to C$10.61 as the price of the metal fell from the highest level in almost 11 months. Gold for December delivery slumped 0.9 percent to settle at $1,780.80 an ounce in New York.

Enerplus Corp. declined 1.6 percent to C$16.23 and Baytex Energy Corp. retreated 2.6 percent to C$46.59. Crude for November delivery fell 2 percent to settle at $89.88 a barrel in New York, capping a third weekly drop.

Iamgold Corp. rose 0.4 percent to C$16.13 after announcing a 274 percent increase in indicated resources at its Cote gold project, halfway between Timmins and Sudbury in northern Ontario.

Primero Mining soared 36 percent to C$7.20, its biggest gain in more than two years. The Mexican government said it would tax silver sold from the Canadian company’s San Dimas mine at a lower rate.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. jumped 6.2 percent to C$48.49, the most in almost six months, erasing earlier losses in the final hour of trading. The Laval, Quebec-based company hosted its annual general meeting today.

Glentel soared 7.3 percent to C$16.09, a five-month high.

The company rallied 3.5 percent yesterday after saying it will handle cell phone sales in Target’s Canadian retail stores, licensed under the brand Target Mobile.

Quebecor Inc. advanced 3.4 percent to C$34.49 after Vince Valentini, analyst with TD Securities, raised the stock to action list buy from buy. The Montreal-based media company agreed to pay C$1.5 billion to Canada’s second-biggest pension fund earlier this week to increase its stake in subsidiary Quebecor Media Inc.

US

By Michael P. Regan and Nikolaj Gammeltoft

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks reversed early gains as optimism about a drop in the jobless rate faded and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index failed to hold at an almost five-year highs.

Treasuries fell, while the Dollar Index erased losses.

The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1 percent to close at 1,460.93 at 4 p.m. in New York, erasing a gain of 0.7 percent that took it above its best closing level since December 2007.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 35 points to 13,610.15, paring an 87-point rally while still closing at the highest in almost five years. The Dollar Index reversed a 0.3 percent drop to trade little changed, while 10-year Treasury yields rose six basis points to 1.74 percent. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities lost 0.8 percent as oil slid below $90 a barrel.

Apple Inc. was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 as the largest company by market value extended a second straight weekly decline. Stocks rallied earlier after the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in 2009, as employers took on more part-time workers. Equities also reversed gains as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy damped speculation the nation was nearing a decision to seek a bailout to shore up its finances.

“Today’s trading is a pattern we’ve seen before this week with a strong start and then we give up gains later in the day,” Frederic Dickson, who helps oversee about $32 billion as chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon, said in a phone interview. “There’s still a lot of the dark cloud of the European financial situation hanging over the market which sets the tone for the short-term intraday trading.”

Home Depot Inc. and Boeing Co. rose at least 1.4 percent to lead gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while UnitedHealth Group Inc. and AT&T Inc. were the biggest declines.

Avon Products Inc. climbed 7.2 percent as the door-to-door cosmetics seller said Andrea Jung will step down as executive chairman. Zynga Inc. plunged 12 percent after cutting its forecast for full-year bookings.

The S&P 500 has rallied 16 percent this year as policy makers around the world attempted to safeguard the global economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last month said the central bank will buy $40 billion of mortgage securities a month, a third round of quantitative easing.

Today’s jobs data is the second-to-last report before U.S. voters go to the polls to pick a president on Nov. 6. The economy added 114,000 workers, in-line with economists’ estimates, and August’s growth was revised higher by 46,000 jobs to 142,000. The household survey showed an 873,000 increase in employment, the biggest since June 1983, excluding the annual Census population adjustments. Some 582,000 Americans took part- time positions because of slack business conditions or those jobs were the only work they could find.

“There was good and bad news but the bottom line is that the data is still too weak for the Fed to even consider ending its unconventional policy,” Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, wrote in a note to clients.

Jack Welch, writing on his Twitter account, said the Obama administration manipulated U.S. employment data for political gain by showing a drop in the jobless rate.

“Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers,” the former General Electric Co. chief executive officer said in a message posted immediately after the report.

The Obama administration denied the allegation as baseless and defended the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which computes the figures. Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told Bloomberg Television that Welch’s remark was “irresponsible.”

Investors’ attention will turn to corporate profits next week when Alcoa Inc. marks the unofficial start of the earnings season on Oct. 9, the fifth anniversary of the record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow. An unbroken streak of S&P 500 profit growth that spurred the market’s three-year rebound is forecast to end, with analysts projecting a 1.7 percent decline in earnings. The growth would last another quarter if not for energy companies, whose profits are poised to slump the most since 2009.

Income at oil and gas producers would fall 22 percent for the three months ending in September, the largest decline in three years, according to more than 1,200 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Excluding the retreat, earnings in the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks would climb 1.9 percent for a 12th straight quarter, amid gains for banks and computer makers, data show.

For the first time this year, hedge funds are turning away from a rally in the global stock market. The ratio of bullish to bearish bets among professional speculators fell last week and is below historical averages, according to a survey by International Strategy & Investment Group. The reduction came as the MSCI All-Country World Index extended its yearly advance to 12 percent and contrasts with January, when managers bought shares as they rose, data compiled by ISI and Bloomberg show.

Five shares gained for every one that fell in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, sending the regional benchmark index up 1 percent for the day and 2.1 percent higher this week. National Bank of Greece SA rose 4 percent and EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA added 7.3 percent. To Vima reported the Greek lenders are in merger talks.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Athens for the first time since Europe’s financial crisis broke out there three years ago, a sign she’s seeking to silence the debate on pushing Greece out of the euro. Merkel’s visit to the Greek capital Oct. 9 to meet with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras underscores the shift in her stance since she held out the prospect last year of Greece exiting the currency bloc.

Spain’s 10-year yield dropped 22 basis points to 5.69 percent before Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s meetings with his French and Italian counterparts. The rate on similar-maturity Italian debt declined eight basis points to 5.05 percent.

Prime Minister Rajoy said Spain hasn’t taken a decision on whether to seek a bailout and any decision will be based on Spaniards’ best interests. Spain needs to consider all the conditions, Rajoy said at a meeting with other leaders in Malta today, reiterating the government’s position.

The euro gained against 10 of 16 currencies and was little changed at $1.3029. Japan’s yen retreated after the jobs report and was lower against 10 of 16 peers.

The rand slid for a third day against the dollar to a four- month low as strikes in South Africa’s mining and transport industries spread. It weakened 5.5 percent this week, the most in more than a year. Illegal strikes spread across South Africa’s mining industry since a stoppage that began Aug. 10 at Lonmin Plc resulted in pay increases of as much as 22 percent.

The dispute left 46 people dead, including 34 shot by police.

Crude dropped 2 percent to $89.88 a barrel, capping a third weekly drop, amid signs that supplies are exceeding demand. Oil rallied 4.1 percent yesterday after sliding a similar amount the day before. The Energy Department reported Oct. 3 that U.S. crude output rose to 6.52 million barrels a day last week, the most since December 1996.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.4 percent, climbing for a second day. India’s S&P CNX Nifty Index was 0.7 percent lower after losing 16 percent amid bad trades. The National Stock Exchange cited the swing on 59 erroneous orders. Volume of trading on the BSE 30 Sensitive Index was almost triple the 30- day average.

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” – Mark Twain

 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

 

“Faith consists in believing when it is beyond the power of reason to believe.” – Voltaire

 

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

A dying star is throwing a cosmic tantrum in this combined image from NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope and the Galaxy Evolution Explorer, provided by NASA Wednesday Oct. 3, 2012. In death, the star’s dusty outer layers are unraveling into space, glowing from the intense ultraviolet radiation being pumped out by the hot stellar core. This object called the Helix nebula, lies 650 light-years away in the constellation of Aquarius.

And also on this day in…

1957 – The Soviet Union launched Sputnik I into orbit around the Earth. Sputnik was the first manmade satellite to enter space. Sputnik I fell out of orbit on January 4, 1958.

1958 – British Overseas Airways Corporation became the first jetliner to offer trans-Atlantic service to passengers with flights between London, England and New York.
1965 – Pope Paul VI addressed the U.N. General Assembly and became the first reigning pontiff to visit the Western Hemisphere.
1976 – Barbara Walters joined Harry Reasoner at the anchor desk of the “ABC Evening News” for the first time.
1981 – Bruce Jenner and Harry Belafonte debuted in their first dramatic roles in NBC-TV’s “Grambling’s White Tiger”.
1987 – NFL owners used replacement personnel to play games despite the player’s strike.
1990 – The German parliament had its first meeting since reunification.
1992 – The 16-year civil war in Mozambique ended. 

“The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time.” – Abraham Lincoln

photos of the day October 4^th, 2012

The church spires of the Familienkirche are silhouetted against the sky during sunrise in Vienna.

People gather at a steel mill ‘Interpipe Steel’, with an installation created by artist Olafur Eliasson seen inside, in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine.

Market Closes for October 4th, 2012:

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13575.36	+80.75
		+0.60%
S&P 500	1461.40	+10.41
		+0.72%
NASDAQ	3149.458	+14.230
		+0.45%
TSX	12447.68	+88.21
		+0.71%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8824.59	+77.72
		+0.89%
HANG  SENG	20907.95	+19.67
		+0.09%
SENSEX	19058.15	+188.46
		+1.00%
FTSE 100	5827.78	+1.97
		+0.03%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.764	1.720
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.369	2.320
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6698	1.6146
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8848	2.8175

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.98091	0.98743
US   $	1.01946	1.01273
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.27690	0.78314
US  $	1.30172	0.76822

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1791.05	1778.10
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	91.71	88.14
BRENT	108.40	108.40

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose to their highest level in almost three weeks after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank is ready to buy government bonds as soon as the necessary conditions are fulfilled.

Enbridge Inc. rose 1.8 percent after analysts at BMO Capital Markets and UBS AG raised their rating on the stock on an improved company outlook. Dundee Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust jumped 9 percent in its first day of trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index gained 88.21 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,447.68 in Toronto. The benchmark index has risen 4.1 percent this year. Mining and telephone stocks led the advance today as eight of 10 industries rose.

“Draghi’s comments definitely help,” said Bruce Campbell, president of Campbell & Lee Investment Management Inc., in an interview from Oakville, Ontario. “It’s fairly obvious Spain needs some bailout help. We can argue what the number is, but because of what he’s said he’ll do and what he’s already done, it’s become self-fulfilling.”

The ECB is ready to start buying government bonds as soon as the necessary conditions are fulfilled by any countries needing assistance, Draghi said today at a press conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The central bank is ready to undertake purchases “once all the prerequisites are in place,” Draghi said, after policy makers left the benchmark rate at a historic low of 0.75 percent.

Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem said today that business investment has been “solid” and that executives need to become more competitive and win sales in faster-growing emerging markets such as Asia. Macklem also reiterated the amount of slack in the labor market has shrunk and policy makers may raise the policy interest rate to meet a 2 percent inflation target.

Canadian equities joined a rally in North American markets after U.S. jobless claims data rose less than estimated.

Applications for jobless benefits increased 4,000 to 367,000 in the week ended Sept. 29, U.S. Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 370,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

The Canadian economy probably added 10,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.3 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg news ahead of a Statistics Canada announcement tomorrow.

Enbridge, Canada’s largest pipeline company by market value, rose 1.8 percent to C$40.08 after Carl Kirst, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, raised the stock to outperform and Chad Friess of UBS raised his rating to buy after the company’s investor meeting in Toronto yesterday.

Dundee Industrial REIT climbed 9 percent to C$10.90 in its first day of trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange after its C$155 million ($158 million) initial public offering last month at C$10 a unit.

Whitecap Resources Inc. jumped 6.7 percent to C$7.84 after the oil and gas explorer reported record September production of 16,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day yesterday after the market close.

Bankers Petroleum Ltd., which operates in the Patos-Marinza oil field in Albania, surged 4.8 percent to C$3.25 after the Albanian project reported a 10 percent increase in production in the third quarter.

Sulliden Gold Corp., run by Forbes & Manhattan Inc.

Chairman Stan Bharti, soared 14 percent to C$1.06 after the mineral exploration company canceled a bonus plan for the board on shareholders’ input. The stock fell 15 percent yesterday.

Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s largest energy company, advanced 1.3 percent to C$33.15 and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose 1.4 percent to C$30.70 as crude rebounded from a two- month low. Oil for November delivery gained 4.1 percent to settle at $91.71 a barrel in New York as tensions between Syria and Turkey fanned concern Middle East production may be disrupted.

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft, Daniel Kruger and Lu Wang

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks and commodities rallied, while the dollar and Treasuries fell, as American jobless claims climbed less than forecast and the European Central Bank said it’s ready to buy bonds once necessary conditions are met.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.7 percent to close at 1,461.40 at 4 p.m. in New York. Oil jumped the most in two months, recouping most of yesterday’s 4.1 percent plunge, as tension between Syria and Turkey escalated. Gasoline climbed 5.1 percent and gold touched the highest price in 11 months. The dollar weakened against 15 of 16 major peers, while 10-year Treasury yields added six basis points to 1.67 percent.

Treasuries fell as stocks advanced and investors dissected last night’s U.S. presidential debate. Government data showed 367,000 people filed initial jobless claims last week, below the median forecast of 370,000. A report tomorrow is projected to show the U.S. added 115,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate increased to 8.2 percent. The ECB left its benchmark rate at 0.75 percent and President Mario Draghi put the onus on Spain to decide whether it wants a bailout.

“The jobless claims report was OK and Draghi is signaling he will do whatever it takes, so I’m not expecting him to take his foot off the accelerator,” Philip Orlando, the New York- based chief equity strategist at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $370 billion, said in a phone interview. “Every data point in the U.S. will be viewed through a market prism and a political prism now.”

The S&P 500 has rallied 16 percent this year as policy makers around the world attempted to safeguard the economic recovery. The benchmark index reached the highest level since 2007 on Sept. 14 after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank will buy $40 billion of mortgage securities a month, a third round of quantitative easing nicknamed QE3 by investors.

Fed officials said they could change the size of the purchases to reduce the risks associated with the program, such as disrupting financial markets and spurring inflation, according to minutes from their last meeting released today.

Mitt Romney aggressively challenged President Barack Obama in their first debate last night and polls conducted in the immediate aftermath by CNN and CBS News both indicated voters thought Romney had won the encounter at the University of Denver. Obama’s odds of re-election fell to 66.9 percent from 74 percent before the debate and a peak of 78.9 percent on Sept.29, according to Intrade.com.

Romney has said that he wouldn’t appoint Bernanke to a third term, while his running mate, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, has said he doesn’t want the Fed to provide additional stimulus.

“The market’s got to start pricing in the possibility of a Romney victory, and if that’s the case then things are going to change a lot,” said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasury trading at Bank of Nova Scotia in New York, one of the 21 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “Romney’s going to go after Bernanke. He’s not a fan of the QE, printing money.”

The S&P 500 rose for a fourth day as financial, commodity and consumer companies led gains among the index’s 10 main groups.

Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. rose at least 2.6 percent to pace an advance in diversified financial shares, which led gains among 24 industries. Romney said last night that the Dodd-Frank overhaul of the financial industry has made banks reluctant to lend and the industry needs clearer regulations.

Consol Energy Inc. and Peabody Energy Corp. jumped more than 4 percent as analysts forecast an end to four straight quarters of declines in the price of coal and Romney said in the debate last night that he likes coal.

TJX Cos. and Target Corp. gained after the retailers reported monthly same-store sales that topped estimates. Ryder System Inc. jumped 6 percent after SunTrust Robinson Humphrey advised buying the shares. Sprint Nextel Corp. slid 2.1 percent after the stock was downgraded by Robert W. Baird & Co. Avery Dennison Corp. fell 4.4 percent after 3M Co. scrapped an agreement to buy its office products business.

Some traders pointed to a bullish bet on the S&P 500 in the options market as helping to fuel today’s rally. One investor bought 11,000 calls expiring tomorrow giving the right to buy the index at 1,465, 1 percent above yesterday’s closing level, Chris Rich, head options strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC in Chicago, said in an interview.

The bullish options surged 196 percent to $3.70 and were the most-traded contract on the benchmark gauge today.

“People are blaming the move higher in the S&P 500 on the options trade,” Rich said in an interview. “Everyone was talking about it.”

Another report today showed orders placed with U.S. factories fell in August by the most in more than three years, signaling that slowdowns in business investment and exports restrained the economic expansion. The 5.2 percent decrease in bookings was less than the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicting a decline of 5.9 percent.

Tomorrow’s jobs data will be the second-to-last of the Labor Department’s monthly reports before U.S. voters vote for their next president on Nov. 6.

“The most important message will be from the employment data from the U.S. on Friday,” said Herbert Perus, who helps oversee about $36 billion as head of equities at Raiffeisen in Vienna. “This will be crucial.”

The yen fell against 13 of its 16 major peers as the Bank of Japan started a two-day meeting after expanding stimulus last month. Price swings in major currencies have waned, with the JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index sliding as low as 7.69 today, the lowest level since October 2007.

Among European stocks, Halfords Group Plc jumped a record 14 percent after the U.K. retailer of bicycles and car parts said earnings will be in the upper half of its previous forecast. Nobel Biocare Holding AG slid 4.3 percent in Zurich as the world’s second-biggest maker of dental implants said full- year profit will be hurt by a deteriorating Japanese market.

Spanish government bonds stayed lower after the nation sold 3.99 billion euros ($5 billion) of securities. It auctioned 3.75 percent notes maturing in 2015 at an average yield of 3.956 percent, up from 3.845 percent at the last sale on Sept. 20. It also sold notes maturing in 2014 at 3.282 percent and 2017 securities at 4.766 percent.

The nation’s three-year note yields rose six basis points to 3.98 percent, while the rate on the two-year security was five basis points higher at 3.28 percent.

Indian stocks rallied to the highest level in more than a year the cabinet considered further measures to open up Asia’s third-largest economy. The cabinet approved a proposal to allow overseas companies to own as much as 49 percent in local insurers versus the current limit of 26 percent, Ajay Maken, minister of sports, said in New Delhi. The BSE India Sensitive Index, or Sensex, jumped 1 percent.

The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities rose 2.5 percent, the biggest gain in two months. West Texas Intermediate oil advanced 4.1 percent to $91.71 a barrel in New York. Crude rebounded as Turkey’s parliament authorized the government to order military action in Syria. A mortar bomb fired across the border yesterday killed five Turks. Oil slid yesterday after the Energy Department said output rose to 6.52 million barrels a day last week, the most since December 1996.

Gold futures advanced 0.9 percent to $1,796.50 an ounce and climbed to as high as $1,797.70, the highest for a most-active contract since Nov. 9.

“Peace begins with a smile.” – Mother Teresa

Have a great evening everyone!

“Never allow a person to tell you no who doesn’t have the power to say yes.” – Eleanor Roosevelt

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Critics of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford pooh-poohed his vision for a giant Ferris wheel and megamall on the city’s waterfront. But that hasn’t deterred developers from announcing plans for the world’s tallest Ferris wheel in New York. To open in 2015 on Staten Island, the New York Wheel will be taller than Singapore’s Flyer and the planned High Roller in Las Vegas. It will be anchored by a 100-store fashion mall and it will operate through the winter months, something many Torontonians thought impossible.

An artist’s rendering of a proposed 625-foot Ferris wheel planned as part of a retail and hotel complex along the Staten Island waterfront in New York. (/AP)

And also on this day in…

1962 – The Sigma VII blasted off from Cape Canaveral for a nine-hour flight.
1962 – The play, “Stop the World, I Want to Get Off!” opened on Broadway.
1974 – Frank Robinson took over the management position of the Cleveland Indians baseball team. He was the first black manager in major league baseball.
1981 – Irish Nationalist in Maze Prison in Belfast, Northern Ireland called off their hunger strike. The strike had lasted 7 months and ten people had died.
1988 – The space shuttle Discovery landed safely after its four-day mission. It was the first American shuttle mission since the Challenger disaster.
1989 – East Germany suspended unrestricted travel to Czechoslovakia in an effort to slow the flow of refugees to the West.
1990 – The Berlin Wall was dismantled eleven months after the borders between East and West Germany were dissolved. The unification of Germany ended 45 years of division. 

“Faith is taking the first step even when you don’t see the whole staircase.” – Martin Luther King, Jr.

photos of the day October 3^rd, 2012

People stroll on the Bund, a famous waterfront as the symbol of town, in Shanghai, China. China celebrated its national day on Oct. 1 and people enjoy a week-long holiday.

Fog rolls through downtown Atlanta, Georgia.

A man poses with a thumbs up sign in front of a painting at the Berlin Wall in Berlin. Wednesday marks the 22nd anniversary of German reunification, after decades of division into Soviet-controlled communist German Democratic Republic (GDR) in the east and the Federal Republic of Germany in the west.

Market Closes for October 3^rd, 2012:

 

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	13494.61	+12.25
		+0.09%
S&P 500	1450.99	+5.24
		+0.36%
NASDAQ	3135.229	+15.186
		+0.49%
TSX	12359.47	-31.76
		-0.26%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8746.87	-39.18
		-0.45%
HANGSENG	20888.28	+47.90
		+0.23%
SENSEX	18869.69	+45.78
		+0.24%
FTSE 100	5825.81	+16.36
		+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.720	1.721
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.320	2.318
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6146	1.6163
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8175	2.8120

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.98743	0.98417
US   $	1.01273	1.01608
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.27465	0.78453
US  $	1.29088	0.77466

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1778.10	1775.70
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	88.14	91.89
BRENT	108.40	111.74

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell as a slump in Chinese non-manufacturing industrial growth offset better-than- estimated reports on U.S. employment and services industries.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. retreated 2.1 percent after Scotia Capital Markets cut its rating on the company amid a weaker potash outlook. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Cenovus Energy Inc. slipped at least 2 percent. Crude fell below $90 as a report showed U.S. crude output climbed to the highest level in more than 15 years and fuel consumption decreased.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 31.76 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,359.47 in Toronto. The benchmark equity gauge has advanced 0.3 percent this week.

“People have been hoping for and expecting a soft landing in China, but the most recent set of data suggests we may be looking at a harder landing,” said Laura Wallace, vice president and fund manager for Scotia Private Client Group, said on the phone from Toronto. The group manages about C$10 billion ($10 billion). “We’re in a no-man’s land where the data isn’t totally weak but isn’t totally strong either, except for Europe which looks like they will be in recession.”

Stocks retreated across Europe and Asia as China’s non- manufacturing industries expanded at the weakest pace since at least March 2011. The purchasing managers’ index fell to 53.7 in September from 56.3 in August. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

ADP Employer Services said U.S. companies added 162,000 jobs last month, topping the median forecast of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for a 140,000 advance. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index climbed to a six- month high of 55.1, exceeding the most optimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey, from 53.7 in August, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed today.

Canadian Natural Resources fell 2.9 percent to C$30.28 and Cenovus Energy slipped 2 percent to C$34.53. Crude for November delivery tumbled 4.1 percent to $88.14 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Aug. 2, after the U.S. Energy Department said crude output rose 11,000 barrels a day to 6.52 million last week, the most since December 1996. Total fuel demand fell 0.3 percent to 18.3 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Sept. 28, the lowest level since April.

Potash Corp., the world’s largest fertilizer producer, slumped 2.1 percent to C$41.07 after Ben Isaacson, analyst with Scotia Capital Markets, downgraded the stock to sector perform from sector outperform.

“The Street needs to bring numbers down substantially,”

Isaacson said in a note today arguing that earnings expectations for the industry are too high.

Quebecor Inc. lost 1.3 percent to C$33 after agreeing to pay C$1.5 billion to the Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, the country’s second-biggest pension fund manager, to increase its controlling stake in a newspaper and cable television unit.

Quebecor will hold a 75.4 percent stake in Quebecor Media Inc. after the transaction.

Pierre Karl Peladeau, chief executive officer of Quebecor, said in a statement the company is “taking advantage” of a favorable debt market.

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Lu Wang

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose and Treasuries erased early gains as data showed better-than-forecast growth in payrolls and service industries, offsetting concern over China’s economy. Commodities fell as the dollar strengthened.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.4 percent to 1,450.97 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring a rally of as much as 0.6 percent as declines in energy producers and Hewlett-Packard Co. weighed on the market. Ten-year Treasury yields were little changed at 1.61 percent after falling two basis points earlier.

The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials dropped 2.3 percent, the most since July, as oil and natural gas tumbled at least 3.9 percent. The dollar appreciated against 14 of 16 major peers.

S&P 500 futures turned higher before the open of exchanges in New York after ADP Employer Services said companies added 162,000 jobs last month, topping the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg for a 140,000 advance. Service industries in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in September.

Futures and European stocks slipped earlier as a report showed Chinese services industries expanded at the weakest pace since at least March 2011.

“There has been an ongoing tug of war as to whether or not the liquidity coming into the markets can counteract perhaps weaker earnings,” Quincy Krosby, a market strategist for Newark, New Jersey-based Prudential Financial, which oversees $943 billion, said by phone. While today’s data “are positive underpinnings for the market,” she said, the range-bound trading “will continue until investors feel comfortable enough to go in with longer positions in the equity market. Market participants are still worried about the economy.”

The ADP data comes two days before a government jobs report that economists forecast will show the nation added 115,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate increased to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent.

The S&P 500 is down 1.1 percent from an almost five-year high set on Sept. 14, trimming a drop of as much as 2.2 percent. Gauges of telephone, consumer-discretionary and financial shares led gains in eight of the 10 main industry groups in the S&P 500 today.

Best Buy Co. jumped on a Reuters report the retailer’s founder and buyout firms are scrutinizing the company’s finances. Monsanto Co. fell as the world’s largest seed company forecast 2013 earnings below analyst estimates. Hewlett-Packard Co. tumbled as Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman projected a profit decline for fiscal 2013 as a turnaround effort at the struggling computer maker takes longer than expected.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1 percent after slumping 0.5 percent earlier. The volume of shares changing hands in the index’s companies was 17 percent less than the 30-day average, before a meeting of European Central Bank policy makers tomorrow, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

FirstGroup Plc plunged 21 percent, the most on record, after the U.K. rail operator was stripped of the right to operate West Coast trains from London to Scotland. EasyJet Plc climbed 3.5 percent as Europe’s second-biggest discount airline said full-year earnings beat its forecasts.

Oil declined 4.1 percent to $88.14 a barrel after a government report showed that U.S. crude output climbed to the highest level in more than 15 years and fuel consumption decreased. Natural gas lost 3.9 percent, the most in seven weeks, on forecast of moderating temperatures. Gasoline dropped 2.4 percent as 18 of 24 commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI retreated.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.4 percent, declining for the first time in five days. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid as much as 0.4 percent, the most in a week, before paring its loss to less than 0.1 percent. Financial markets in China and South Korea were closed.

China’s purchasing managers’ index fell to 53.7 in September from 56.3 in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

Australia’s dollar declined for a fourth straight day as the nation recorded its widest trade deficit since 2008 in August. It dropped to as low as $1.0196, the weakest level since Sept. 6.

South Africa’s rand depreciated 0.8 percent against the dollar on rising expectations the central bank will cut interest rates to stimulate growth. The dollar strengthened against 14 of 16 major currencies, up 0.1 percent at $1.2903 per euro and 0.5 percent higher at 78.52 yen.

Yields on 10-year Italian government bonds increased one basis point to 5.04 percent, after earlier slipping below 5 percent. The rate on similar-maturity Spanish securities added six basis points to 5.81 percent.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said yesterday he has no plans to request rescue funds in the near term, defying market speculation that the nation would ask for a bailout which would pave the way for the ECB to buy its debt.

There’s “ongoing uncertainty about the timing of Spain’s formal request for an official program and concerns about global growth,” Barclays Plc’s head of European currency strategy, Guillermo Felices, wrote in a report to investors. “We remain constructive on risky assets, but think better news is needed on both fronts for the rally to regain momentum.”

The cost of insuring European corporate and sovereign debt using credit-default swaps fell for a third day, to the lowest levels in more than a week. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of swaps on 50 mostly junk-rated companies declined eight basis points to 549.

Portuguese debt agency IGCP bought 3.76 billion euros ($4.9 billion) of bonds due next year in exchange for securities due in 2015 as the nation takes steps to return to international credit markets.

“Age is an issue of mind over matter. If you don’t mind, it doesn’t matter.” – Mark Twain

Have a great evening everyone!

“Always be yourself, express yourself, have faith in yourself, do not go out and look for a successful personality and duplicate it.” – Bruce Lee

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

A British political power couple has sparked a debate over whether the modern convention of the “date night” is all it’s cracked up to be. What are your thoughts on this topic? Some say with the busyness of everyday life, they no longer have time to take a night out for a “date”. With soccer games, sleepovers and other extra circular activities, where do you find the time to squeeze in that ever so important night out with your significant other? Well, if you are having problems coordinating a date night, look no further. For $12.50 an hour, Brenndon Knox “secretary of romance”, plans fun outings for couples, such as a taco-making class or an “impromptu” dance down an aisle at a flea market.  Some may criticize this style of dating as an inauthentic expression of love, but Lida Elias, owner of the Toronto date-planning service Save My Date, doesn’t think there’s anything wrong with getting a little help. “People are just busy with their jobs,” she says. With that being said, ensure once, or even every other month, you set aside a night where you and your significant other go out for dinner, a movie or anything, just as long as it is the two of you!

And also on this day in…

1959 – “The Twilight Zone” debuted on CBS-TV. The show ran for 5 years for a total of 154 episodes.
1962 – U.S. ports were closed to nations that allowed their ships to carry arms to Cuba, ships that had docked in a socialist country were prohibited from docking in the United States during that voyage, and the transport of U.S. goods was banned on ships owned by companies that traded with Cuba.
1967 – Thurgood Marshall was sworn in. He was the first African-American member of the U.S. Supreme Court.
1988 – Pakistan’s Supreme Court ordered free elections.
1989 – In Leipzig, East Germany a protest took place demanding the legalization of opposition groups and the adoption of democratic reforms.
1990 – The Allies ceded their rights to areas they occupied in Germany.
1993 – Opponents of Russian President Boris Yeltsin fought police and set up burning barricades. 

“Lots of people want to ride with you in the limo, but what you want is someone who will take the bus with you when the limo breaks down.” – Oprah Winfrey

photos of the day October 2^nd, 2012

A student holds a rose during a program organized to mark the International Day of Non-Violence in Kathmandu, Nepal.

A boat sails on Lake Leman during a warm afternoon in Chexbres, Switzerland.

Children react as a giant bubble is formed around them during an event to attempt a new Ukrainian record for the most people in a bubble, in Kiev. Ten children are taking part in the attempt by Ukrainian bubble artist Anton Kushpil.

Market Closes for October 2^nd, 2012:

 

Market  Index	Close	Change
DowJones	13482.36	-32.75
		+0.24%
S&P 500	1445.75	+1.26
		+0.09%
NASDAQ	3120.042	+6.509
		+0.21%
TSX	12391.23	+21.04
		+0.17%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8786.05	-10.46
		-0.12%
HANGSENG	20840.38	+78.09
		+0.38%
SENSEX	18823.91	+61.17
		+0.33%
FTSE 100	5809.45	-11.00
		-0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.721	1.709
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.318	2.314
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6163	1.6146
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8120	2.8066

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.98417	0.98247
US   $	1.01608	1.01785
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.27124	0.78663
US  $	1.29169	0.77418

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1775.70	1776.35
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	91.89	92.48
BRENT	111.74	112.21

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose in the last hour of trading as a rally in energy shares overshadowed disappointment after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he has no plans to request a bailout in the near term.

Niko Resources Ltd. and Birchcliff Energy Ltd. jumped at least 10 percent as energy stocks contributed the most to gains in the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index. Kinross Gold Corp. climbed 1.5 percent after analysts with RBC Capital Markets raised their rating on the miner. Research In Motion Ltd. jumped 5.8 percent to lead technology shares higher.

The S&P/TSX rose 21.04 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,391.23 in Toronto, reversing an earlier loss of as much as 0.2 percent. The benchmark equity gauge has risen 3.7 percent this year.

Rajoy said he has no plans to request rescue funds for Spain in the near term, defying speculation that the nation was preparing to ask for a bailout.

“The markets have been going up on anticipation of real action, but we’re still waiting,” said Stephen Gauthier, a money manager with Fin-XO Securities Inc. in Montreal. The firm manages about C$600 million ($610 million). “In Europe, every day it’s been like this for the past two months. It’s a lot of talking, and it looks good, but there’s not a lot that’s really being done to address the problems.”

Central banks continued to inject liquidity into the market to sustain the global economy, with the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cutting its interest rate to 3.25 percent. This is good for equities but at some point governments need to take action to cut deficits, Gauthier said.

Kinross rose 1.5 percent to C$10.34 after Stephen Walker, analyst with RBC Capital Markets, raised his rating for the gold miner to outperform from sector perform and increased his one- year price target to $14 from $11. The company is poised to take advantage of higher long-term prices for the metal, Walker said.

Goldcorp Inc. slipped 1.1 percent to C$44.93 after Jorge Beristain, head of Americas metals and mining research with Deutsche Bank Securities, cut his rating to hold from buy.

“We now rate those companies buy that have the most ability to rein in capital spending and have shown the most willingness to return cash to shareholders,” he said. “To put it bluntly, managing for aggressive growth is passe.”

Niko Resources surged 14 percent to C$15.84 and Birchcliff Energy soared 10 percent to C$7.70.

Research In Motion rallied 5.8 percent to C$8.15. The stock has jumped 32 percent over the past six days.

Torex Gold Resources Inc. tumbled 8.5 percent to C$1.94 after announcing a C$350 million financing, selling shares and warrants to a group of underwriters led by Bank of Montreal Capital Markets to help fund the development of the company’s Morelo gold project in Mexico.

US

By Michael P. Regan and Lu Wang

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks erased losses in the final hour of trading as Apple Inc. rebounded from a six-week low, helping the market recover from a drop triggered by concern about Spain’s finances. Treasuries rose and the dollar fell.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added less than 0.1 percent to close at 1,445.75 after retreating 0.4 percent in early trading. Ten-year Treasury yields decreased one basis point to 1.62 percent, declining for the 11th time in 12 days. The Dollar Index slipped for a second day, with the euro up 0.3 percent at $1.2920. Australia’s currency weakened at least 0.7 percent against all 16 major peers after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to the lowest since 2009.

Apple, the world’s largest company by market value, reversed its loss in the final hour of the session after briefly dipping below a technical level watched by traders as a potential buying opportunity. Stocks turned lower earlier after Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy said he has no plans to request rescue funds in the near term, defying market speculation that the nation would ask for a bailout which would pave the way for the European Central Bank to buy its debt.

“Spain took down the market, but people looked past it and found some good entry points in technology stocks,” Frank Ingarra, who helps manage $1.4 billion at Greenwich, Connecticut-based NorthCoast Asset Management LLC, said in a telephone interview. “Apple is such a big part of the market and it’s been on a downtrend for a couple of days, so it makes sense for the stock to get some relief and rebound which would translate into the indexes.”

Apple rose $1.92, or 0.3 percent, to $661.31. The stock rebounded after 3 p.m. after dropping as much as 1.3 percent to $650.65, below its average price from the past 50 days. The shares, which slumped 4.7 percent last week after sales of the iPhone 5 started, contributed the most to the S&P 500’s rebound in the final hour, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Technology companies in the S&P 500 reversed a 0.7 percent retreat to end the session up 0.1 percent.

Health-care, utility and financial shares led gains among 10 groups, while commodity producers and consumer-discretionary stocks fell the most.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. slid 4.2 percent after hedge fund manager David Einhorn recommended betting against the restaurant chain. Mosaic Co. dropped 3.9 percent after reporting earnings that missed estimates. Citigroup Inc. increased 1.6 percent as its rating was raised by KBW. MetroPCS Communications Inc. rallied 18 percent as Deutsche Telekom AG was said to be nearing a deal with the wireless carrier.

MSCI Inc. fell the most on record after being dropped as benchmark provider for 22 index funds by Vanguard Group Inc., the largest U.S. mutual-fund company. MSCI declined 27 percent, the most since it went public in November of 2007, after Vanguard said funds with about $537 billion in assets will replace New York-based MSCI to cut costs for fund shareholders.

Investors are proving skeptical that the Federal Reserve’s announcement of additional quantitative easing will get Americans to spend more.

The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund — which includes Amazon.com Inc. and Macy’s Inc. — has lagged behind the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund by 2.8 percent since Sept. 14, the day after the Fed unveiled plans to buy mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion a month until the labor market improves. During the preceding six weeks, the discretionary exchange-traded fund outpaced its defensive counterpart, which includes Procter & Gamble Co. and Coca-Cola Co., by 9.2 percent.

Rajoy’s remarks followed the close of European markets, where Spanish bonds and stocks rallied in anticipation of a bailout request that would pave the way for the European Central Bank to buy the nation’s debt.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent. PostNL NV, the Dutch mail service with operations in the U.K., Germany and Italy, jumped 4.4 percent after saying it will raise postage stamp rates in 2013.

Banks in the index declined 0.6 percent as a group. Spain’s banks face a capital shortfall that could climb to 105 billion euros ($135 billion), almost double the estimate the government provided last week, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Spanish registered unemployment rose for a second month in September amid a worsening recession. The number of people registering for jobless benefits increased 79,645 from August to 4.7 million, according to data released today by the Labor Ministry in Madrid. That compares with an increase of 95,817 in the same month last year.

Asked at a press conference in Madrid today if a bailout request was imminent, Rajoy said: “No.” Rajoy is weighing the terms of a Sept. 6 proposal by the ECB president to buy bonds of cash-strapped nations including Spain if they make for a formal aid request from the euro region’s government-run rescue funds.

Reuters news agency yesterday reported that Spain is ready to seek a bailout as soon as this weekend.

“This continues to show the fact markets remain much headline driven,” Ryan Larson, the Chicago-based head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., said in an interview. His firm oversees $250 billion in assets. “Rajoy’s comments today really shouldn’t come as any surprise to the market. It seems very consistent with what he reiterated over the last several weeks,” he said. Early declines were “probably a little bit of over-reaction from the market.”

Alstom SA plunged 4.9 percent after Europe’s second-largest power-equipment maker sold 350 million euros ($452 million) of stock to help finance an acquisition it announced in 2009. Erste Group Bank AG slipped 2.8 percent after the Austrian bank’s largest shareholder sold a 235 million-euro stake.

The yield on German 10-year bunds climbed one basis point to 1.46 percent, while Spain’s 10-year rate lost 13 basis points to 5.75 percent and Italy’s decreased five points to 5.03 percent.

The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities declined 0.4 percent as wheat, nickel, gasoline and soybeans declined at least 1.5 percent, while coffee and lean hogs and sugar gained more than 2 percent.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.1 percent for a fourth day of gains. Turkey’s benchmark index climbed 1.1 percent while Russia’s Micex Index slipped 0.4 percent for the first decline in four days.

The dollar weakened against nine of 16 major peers, while strengthening 0.9 percent to $1.0266 per Australian dollar.

The RBA’s interest-rate cut was predicted by nine of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The ECB will probably keep its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent when council members meet on Oct. 4, according to a Bloomberg survey.

“Central bankers have revealed their hands,” said Jeremy Batstone-Carr, head of research at Charles Stanley Group Plc in London. “Open-ended monetary policy will to some extent backstop risk, and thus limit the downside. We can expect a protracted period of sideways churn in the market.”

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” – Eleanor Roosevelt

Have a great evening everyone!

“Believe in yourself! Have faith in your abilities! Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy.” – Norman Vincent Peale

 

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Kinesiology professor, Dr. Jamie Burr has recently conducted a study on the health effects of inactivity and is a proponent of “walk-and-talk” meetings. Dr. Burr maintains that moving around makes your brain work better. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, based in Bethesda, Md., adults who do aerobic exercise show greater task-related activity in the region of the brain associated with attention, while aerobically trained rats learn mazes two to 12 times faster than those which are not. A meta-analysis of several studies examining the link between exercise and cognition in adults, meanwhile, found that physical activity has the greatest impact on “executive control,” which includes tasks such as scheduling, planning and multitasking, as well as working memory. So next time you are planning a staff meeting, or need to meet with a client, think about taking the meeting outside of the office: a coffee shop, lunch date or like Dr. Burr, meet at an indoor/outdoor track and walk laps while enjoying the fresh air.

And also on this day in…

1908 – The Ford Model T, the first car for millions of Americans, hits the market. Over 15 million Model Ts are eventually sold, all of them black.

1942 – The German Army grinds to a complete halt within the city of Stalingrad.
1943 – British troops in Italy enter Naples and occupy Foggia airfield.
1944 – The U.S. First Army begins the siege Aachen, Germany.
1946 – Eleven Nazi war criminals are sentenced to be hanged at Nuremberg trials—Hermann Goring, Alfred Jodl, Hans Frank, Wilhelm Frick, Ernst Kaltenbrunner, Wilhelm Keitel, Joachin von Ribbentrop, Fritz Saukel, Arthur Seyss-Inquart, Julius Streicher, and Alfred Rosenberg.
1974 – Five Nixon aides–Kenneth Parkinson, Robert Mardian, Nixon’s Chief of Staff H.R. Haldeman, John Ehrlichman, and U.S. Attorney General John

“Never be afraid to laugh at yourself, after all, you could be missing out on the joke of the century.” — Dame Edna Everage

photos of the day October 1^st, 2012

A worker sprays water on a statue of the late Mahatma Gandhi on the eve of his birth anniversary at Gandhi Park in Bhubaneswar, eastern India. Gandhi, known as the ‘Father of the Nation,’ was instrumental in the movement that lead to India’s independence from Britain in 1947.

A dog catches a wave during the Surf City Surf Dog contest in Huntington Beach, Calif.

In this handout photo provided by the Mount Washington Observatory, a snowman is seen at the top of the highest peak in the Northeast.

Market Closes for October 1^st, 2012:

Market  Index	Close	Change
Dow  Jones	13515.11	+77.98
		+0.58%
S&P 500	1444.49	+3.82
		+0.27%
NASDAQ	3113.533	-2.695
		-0.09%
TSX	12370.19	+52.73
		+0.43%

International Markets

Market  Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	8796.51	-73.65
		-0.83%
HANG  SENG	20840.38	+78.09
		+0.38%
SENSEX	18823.91	+61.17
		+0.33%
FTSE 100	5820.45	+78.38
		+1.37

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND.  10 Year Bond	1.709	1.728
CND.   30 Year Bond	2.314	2.319
U.S.   10 Year Bond	1.6146	1.6318
U.S.   30 Year Bond	2.8066	2.8238

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.98247	0.98364
US   $	1.01785	1.01663
Euro Rate  1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian   $	1.26604	0.78987
US  $	1.28866	0.77600

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold   Fix	1776.35	1771.77
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	92.48	92.19
BRENT	112.21	113.25

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose to a one-week high after reports showed an unexpected jump in U.S. manufacturing and smaller-than-forecast contraction in European factory data.

Magna International Inc., North America’s biggest auto- parts supplier, added 2.3 percent after agreeing to buy German automotive pumps producer Ixetic Verwaltungs GmbH. Canam Group Inc., a maker of construction products, surged 12 percent as Guy Gottfried, founder of Rational Investment Group, recommended buying the stock at an investing conference.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 68.8 points, or 0.6 percent, to 12,386.26 at 2:35 p.m. in Toronto. The measure is on pace for the highest close since Sept. 20 and has climbed 3.6 percent this year. Energy stocks led gains as nine of 10 industries in the Canadian equity benchmark advanced.

“We’re taking our direction from the much stronger-than- expected ISM numbers,” said Barry Schwartz, a fund manager with Baskin Financial Services Inc. in Toronto. The firm manages about C$450 million ($458.4 million). “Canada is in a pretty good spot right now. Our neighbors in the U.S. are doing just fine, thank you very much, and we do enough trade with them that we can ride on their coattails.”

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. manufacturing rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 a month earlier, snapping three months of contraction. Economists in a Bloomberg survey projected a reading of 49.7 for September, according to the median of 76 forecasts. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro region based on a survey of purchasing managers was at 46.1, above an initial estimate of 46 on Sept. 20, Markit Economics in London said today.

Magna gained 2.3 percent to C$43.47. The purchase of Ixetic will add manufacturing sites in Germany, China and Bulgaria, the company said.

Canam surged 12 percent to C$5.66, on pace for its biggest gain since October 2008 on trading volume more than double the three-month average. Gottfried said the stock was undervalued at the Value Investing Congress in New York.

Centerra Gold Inc. jumped 4.2 percent to C$12.83, poised for the highest close since June. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3 percent to $1,779.40 in New York after earlier touching $1,794.40, highest since Nov. 14.

Bankers Petroleum Ltd. climbed 3.4 percent to C$3.05 and Crew Energy Inc. rose 5.3 percent to C$7.62. Crude for November delivery rose 0.2 percent to $92.41 a barrel in New York.

Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s largest energy company, added 1.9 percent to C$32.94 and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. jumped 2.4 percent to C$31.04.

US

By Rob Verdonck and Rita Nazareth

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed, rebounding from the worst weekly drop in four months, as U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly expanded. Spanish bonds gained with the euro as stress-test results bolstered confidence in Spain’s banking system. Gold touched the highest price since November.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming earlier gains as Apple Inc. slumped. Spanish 10-year yields declined for a third day, slipping six basis points to 5.88 percent. The euro advanced against all 16 major peers. The S&P GSCI gauge of commodities added 0.2 percent as natural gas and sugar led gains. Gold futures pared gains after rising as much as 1.2 percent to $1,794.40. Treasury yields traded near three-week lows.

The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 a month earlier, surpassing the median economist estimate and the level of 50 that signals growth. Banks helped lead gains in Europe after Spanish stress tests revealed a capital deficit of 59.3 billion euros ($76 billion), less than the 100 billion-euro bailout the country was awarded to shore up its banks.

“The fact that manufacturing is beginning to recover will significantly reduce fears of a potential U.S. recession,” said James Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at Minneapolis- based Wells Capital Management. His firm oversees about $325 billion. “Fears regarding the euro zone have been diminishing in recent months and today represents another positive move in that direction.”

Reports today showed euro-area manufacturing contracted less than initially estimated in September, Markit Economics said today. Chinese factory output weakened for a second month and big Japanese manufacturers became more pessimistic in the last quarter, according to the findings of official surveys. Unemployment in the euro area reached the highest on record.

The S&P 500 rebounded after last week sliding 1.3 percent, its worst retreat since the week ended June 1. Consumer-staples, health-care, energy and financial shares led gains in the benchmark index for U.S. equities today as six of its 10 main groups advanced.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advanced 2.8 percent after Barron’s predicted that the stock will rise as much as 25 percent within a year as capital markets improve. Ceradyne Inc. jumped 43 percent after 3M Co. agreed to buy the company for $860 million to expand its energy unit. Monster Worldwide Inc., the Internet recruiting service that is exploring a sale, increased 4.1 percent after DealReporter said the company is in talks with a private equity bidder.

Apple, the biggest company by market value, lost 1.2 percent to extend last week’s 4.7 percent drop, its first weekly decline since July. As it retreated, the S&P 500 trimmed an earlier gain of as much as 1.1 percent.

“Apple is a real market mover,” Alan Gayle, a senior strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees about $47 billion, said in a telephone interview. “Its fundamentals are in place, but after such a big run, we’re a seeing a breather. In the U.S., manufacturing data has limited the downside risk. Yet the market is still saying ‘show me’ and waiting for other data points.”

The S&P 500 may climb to a record 1,585 next year as economic growth improves amid stimulus efforts by global central banks, said John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer & Co.’s chief investment strategist. The strategist’s forecast implies a 10 percent rally in the S&P 500 from the Sept. 28 close of 1,440.67.

Wall Street strategists so far are unanimous in predicting the S&P 500 will reach a record next year, according to the four firms that have made predictions out of 14 tracked by Bloomberg.

Stoltzfus’ estimate is higher than the 1,575 level called for by Bank of Montreal’s Brian Belski while lower than predictions of 1,600 by Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian and 1,615 by Tobias Levkovich at Citigroup Inc.

Emerging markets led global stocks to the fourth monthly gain in September, the longest streak since 2007, handing equity investors better returns than bonds, commodities and the dollar and pushing them ahead for the year.

The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities increased 3.2 percent last month including dividends, bringing its 2012 gain to 13 percent. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index of commodities slid 1.4 percent, trimming its yearly advance to 3.5 percent, while the U.S. Dollar Index lost 1.6 percent. Bonds of all types returned 0.31 percent, on average, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index.

Unprecedented steps by central bankers to fix the slowest global growth since 2009 have sent investors to equities. The U.S. Federal Reserve pledged on Sept. 13 a third round of asset purchases to revive the economy after unemployment stayed above 8 percent for 44 months. The European Central Bank announced an unlimited bond-buying program last month, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase fund and India’s central bank lowered the cash reserve ratio for lenders.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke today renewed a pledge to sustain record stimulus even after the U.S. expansion gains strength, while saying policy makers don’t expect the economy to remain weak through 2015.

“We expect that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economy strengthens,” Bernanke said today in the text of a speech in Indianapolis. Policy makers’ forecast to hold the main interest rate near zero until at least mid-2015 “doesn’t mean that we expect the economy to be weak through” that year.

The S&P GSCI added 0.2 percent as 16 of 24 commodities advanced. Oil increased 0.3 percent to $92.48 a barrel in New York. Sugar, natural gas and coffee rose more than 2.5 percent while wheat, cocoa and soybeans led declines.

All but one of 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 advanced as the gauge rebounded from last week’s 2.7 percent plunge, the biggest decline since June 1. Xstrata Plc rose 2.4 percent in London trading after its board recommended shareholders accept a $33 billion takeover offer by Glencore International Plc.

Air France-KLM Group gained almost 3 percent as the International Air Transport Association raised its 2012 global airline profit forecast by 37 percent. International Consolidated Airlines Group climbed 3.6 percent. Credit Agricole SA advanced 7.4 percent after entering exclusive talks to sell Emporiki Bank, its unprofitable Greek unit, to Alpha Bank SA.

Banks in the Stoxx 600 climbed 2.2 percent as a group and contributed the most to the index’s advance.

“The stress tests are another hurdle overcome in easing the sovereign-debt crisis,” said Henk Potts, an equity strategist at Barclays Plc in London. “It’s absolutely right to rally on the back of the tsunami of stimulus we have seen.”

Unemployment in the economy of the 17 nations using the euro was 11.4 percent in August, the same as in June and July after those months’ figures were revised higher. An Oct. 5 report is forecast to show the U.S. jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent last month from 8.1 percent in August, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated.

Spain’s securities pared last week’s declines after Moody’s Investors Service said the recapitalization of the nation’s banks was positive for its credit rating.

Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell two basis points to 5.08 percent, while the rate on similar-maturity German bunds climbed one basis point to 1.45 percent. The yield on 10-year U.S.

Treasuries lost two basis points to 1.61 percent.

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.2886 and 0.3 percent to 100.51 yen. The shared currency earlier weakened 0.4 percent against both.

A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area based on a survey of purchasing managers was 46.1, a six-month high and above an initial estimate of 46 on Sept. 20, according to Markit. The index, which stood at 44 in July, has held for 14 months below 50, indicating contraction.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.4 percent as almost two stocks fell for each that rose. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker by market value, lost 1.7 percent in Tokyo. Financial markets in China, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holidays.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index was 49.8 in September after a 49.2 reading in August, according to a report today by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. In Japan, the Tankan index for large manufacturers fell in the July-September quarter to minus 3 from minus 1, the fourth negative reading, the Bank of Japan said today.

“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but seeing with new eyes.” —Marcel Proust

Have a great evening everyone!

Watch your thoughts; they become words.

Watch your words; they become actions.

Watch your actions; they become habits.

Watch your habits; they become character.

Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.

—Lao-Tze

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.