15th July, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: St. Swithin’s Day, England.

July 15, 2006: Twitter launches as a microblogging service, sparking a new era of social media communication.
July 15, 2010: BP stopped the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico after 85 days using a 75-ton cap lowered onto the well earlier in the week.

Rembrandt, artist, b. 1606.

Unreleased Beyoncé music stolen in Atlanta
Hard drives containing the tunes — and several other items — were taken from a vehicle rented by the singer’s choreographer.

German tourist describes how she got lost in the Outback
Carolina Wilga, 26, also said she was “beyond grateful to have survived” her ordeal and thanked the people who searched for her.

AMC offers 50% off ticket prices on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
Will such deep discounts bring audiences back to the theater and help revive the movie industry?

Neil Diamond gives surprise performance
Theatergoers attending the show, “The Neil Diamond Musical: A Beautiful Noise,” in Los Angeles last weekend were thrilled when the man himself led an impromptu sing-along.

1,800+: That’s how many earthquakes have shaken a remote Japanese island in the past three weeks. 

100 undiscovered galaxies may be orbiting the Milky Way, supercomputer simulations hint
Our Milky Way could have many more satellite galaxies than we’ve detected so far. They’re just too faint to be seen. Read More.

Archaeologists discover that parties 11,000 years ago were BYOB — bring your own boar
Humans have feasted since the dawn of agriculture — but a new find suggests the practice of bringing exotic food to a communal gathering is even older. Read More.

Grand Canyon Dragon wildfire burns down historic lodge and triggers toxic gas leak
Firefighters are battling a lightning-caused wildfire on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon. The Dragon Bravo Fire has burned down the Grand Canyon Lodge and triggered a chlorine gas leak. Read More.

Missed Prime Day? These camera, telescope and binocular deals are still live — just in time for the Perseids and Sturgeon moon
We’ve rounded up the best camera deals from Sony, Nikon, Canon and more — save $$$’s on your next mirrorless or DSLR camera. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Carnew, Ireland
Blarney Castle features on a knitted map of Ireland. The 12ft by 11ft work took four years of knitting and crocheting to complete
Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

Faraya, Lebanon
‘I recently went on a trip to photograph the beauty of Lebanon, a country often seen through the lens of conflict. I captured the stunning moment of the setting sun above the clouds while up in the mountains. It felt like I was photographing the soul of Lebanon.’
Photograph: Nader Kasfy

Grenoble, France
‘I took this in my kitchen. White light from a laptop screen is polarised and when any plastic is seen through a polarising filter, you get colours like this coming from the stress.’
Photograph: Robert Cubitt
Market Closes for July 15^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. –Dr. Milton Friedman, 1912-2006.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 27,054.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on June 25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Richelieu Hardware Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 3.3%.
Today, 152 of 213 shares fell, while 58 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.4t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.95% compared with 5.64% in the previous session and the average of 6.15% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -48.7410| -0.5| 5/20
Information Technology | -27.3368| -1.0| 3/7
Materials | -23.9688| -0.7| 15/33
Industrials | -16.7779| -0.5| 8/21
Consumer Staples | -13.3084| -1.3| 0/10
Energy | -9.1464| -0.2| 14/24
Consumer Discretionary | -8.9188| -1.0| 0/9
Real Estate | -2.0930| -0.4| 4/15
Health Care | -0.0309| 0.0| 1/2
Communication Services | 2.2176| 0.4| 2/3
Utilities | 3.3714| 0.3| 6/8
Shopify | -17.7900| -1.3| -16.8| 3.2
RBC | -12.6500| -0.7| 70.0| 3.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -8.7840| -1.4| -40.0| -3.2
TC Energy | 2.7610| 0.6| -35.7| -0.4
Brookfield Renewable Partners | 3.2730| 6.3| 124.7| 13.8
Cameco | 3.2860| 1.1| 21.2| 40.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Tuesday following the release of June inflation by the United States and Canada.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 144.71 points at 27,054.14, dropping off Monday’s record close of 27,198.85.
Sectors were mostly down.
Financial and Information Technology led the decliners, falling 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively.
Utilities topped the gainers, up 1.7%.
Statistics Canada reported Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% annualized in June, up from 1.7% in May, but under the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the June CPI rose 2.7% annualized, meeting expectations but up from May’s 2.4 rate.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 2.9% last month, up from 2.8% in May.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said the reliability of U.S. inflation data is “highly questionable,” arguably at the worst possible time for markets.
He added that there are two key reasons for this.
First, the seasonal adjustment applied to June’s core CPI data appears to have artificially suppressed the inflation reading.
The unadjusted core CPI increase for June was among the largest ever for that month, yet the seasonal adjustment factor used was the lowest on record for any June.
This kind of calculation is heavily influenced by recent trends and pandemic-era distortions, many of which are now outdated, he said.
Second, the share of the CPI basket based on estimated or proxy prices rather than actual collected data has reached 35%, up from 30% in recent months and more than double the previous record set during the height of the pandemic.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics attributes this to budget cuts under the Trump administration, which reduced the agency’s ability to collect in-person pricing data, Holt said.
“Proving that this distorts CPI is impossible, but it would stand to reason that one should be extremely guarded toward the quality of the data when so much of the basket is being inferred and will never be revised since the data has fundamentally gone AWOL,” he added.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said while core inflation rose slightly less than forecast at 0.23% month-over-month, it was enough to push the year-over-year core rate to 2.9%.
“There was evidence of tariff price pass through with core goods accelerating, and this particularly apparent in the ex-used cars and trucks measure,” he added.
Looking ahead, Macquarie expects core inflation to stay elevated through the end of the year as tariff effects continue.
The firm also expects the upcoming core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation reading to be on the firmer side, with more clarity expected from tomorrow’s Producer Price Index release.
“Our view on Fed policy remains unchanged with these data. We continue to expect 25 bps in easing ahead in 2025 and a further 25 bps in 2026. Our baseline timing for the first cut is December,” Doyle said.
In connection with Canada’s CPI, he said the data is likely to give the Bank of Canada some pause after the moderation in May.
He added that inflation is expected to cool unevenly.
Higher unemployment and slower private sector wage growth should help, as will easing shelter costs due to slower population growth.
A stronger Canadian dollar could also reduce pressure from import prices.
Because of today’s data and last week’s jobs report, Macquarie now sees just two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with the next likely in October, Doyle said.
The firm previously expected three cuts, starting in July.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declined to impose fresh sanctions on Russian oil exports, giving the country 50 days to end its war on Ukraine before imposing secondary tariffs on buyers of the country’s oil.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed US$0.46 to settle at US$66.52 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.45 to US$68.76.
Gold traded lower midafternoon on Tuesday along with the dollar after U.S consumer prices rose as expected in June.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$22.60 to US$3.336.50 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Relatively tame inflation data failed to ease Wall Street’s worries about the impacts of tariffs, with initial rallies in stocks and bonds sputtering on bets the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for now.
Tech shares jumped on news Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will resume some chip sales to China, with traders also parsing results from banks.
The S&P 500 retreated after earlier topping 6,300.
A gauge of US financial giants sank as Wells Fargo & Co. cut its guidance for net interest income.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped even as investment bankers eked out a surprise gain.
Citigroup Inc. hit the highest since 2008 on a stock-buyback plan.
While short-dated Treasuries led losses, longer maturities also slid – with 30-year yields topping 5%.
The dollar rose 0.4%.
Underlying US inflation rose by less than expected for a fifth month in June even as the details signaled companies are beginning to pass some tariff-related costs more meaningfully to consumers.
Traders priced in somewhat lower odds that the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the probability of a move in September is now seen as only slightly higher than 50%.
“The big question for the inflation picture is tariffs. It’s taking some time for tariffs to show up in the data, but it’s highly likely that a tariff-driven inflation reckoning is coming,” said Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital.
“The Fed will want to watch the next several inflation and jobs reports before it makes any moves on rates.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Fed Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the board when his term is up in May 2026.
Asked whether President Donald Trump has asked Bessent himself to serve as Fed chair, the Treasury chief said, “I am part of the decision-making process.”
He noted that “it’s President Trump’s decision, and it will move at his speed.”
The consumer price index, excluding the often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from May.
While a decline in car prices helped keep a lid on the figure, goods categories exposed to Trump’s levies including toys and appliances rose at the fastest paces in years.
To Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, inflation has begun to show the first signs of tariff pass- through.
While services inflation continues to moderate, the acceleration in tariff-exposed goods is likely the first of greater price pressures to come, she said.
“While any tariff-induced boost to inflation is likely to be short-lived, with higher tariffs being announced, it would be wise for the Fed to remain on the sidelines for a few more months at least,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
At Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Kay Haigh notes that while underlying inflation remained muted, price pressures are expected to strengthen — and the July and August CPI reports will be important hurdles to clear.
“For the time being, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode,” Haigh said.
“Should underlying inflation, however, continue to prove benign the path remains open to a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle in the autumn.”
Traders this month have whittled the odds of Fed easing.
Strong June employment data released July 3 led them to rule out a cut after the next meeting concludes July 30 and to downgrade the chances of a September cut, which was fully priced in as recently as late June.
Given recent trade policy developments, the Fed will likely look to stay patient as inflation impacts continue to materialize, according to Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“Today’s report showed the beginning of the tariff passthrough into core goods inflation, and as long as the labor market remains strong, the Fed can afford to wait and see how inflation and inflation expectations evolve over the summer,” they said.
To Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co., despite a firmer core CPI in June relative to May, Fed officials will likely welcome this report – higher tariff related goods inflation justifies their more cautious stance, while continued disinflation across services categories should support rate cuts in September and beyond.
“We believe the fact that inflation is more concentrated in core goods categories will make it easier for the Fed to communicate why they are cutting rates while inflation is above target,” she noted.
“If you believe the economy is hobbling along, then you have a case for thinking price pressures will disappear soon,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“But for now, they’re here, and curious minds may start wandering down the rabbit hole of how far inflation could go.”
Cox says the next few weeks could shift these summer markets into a higher gear.
“It’s time for the bulls to bring the receipts before we settle in for another sleepy August,” she said.
“Eventually, we need to see fundamentals back up these prices.  I’m interested to see if the data can get us there.”
Fund managers have rushed back into risky assets at a record pace on optimism over economic growth and strong corporate profits, according to a monthly survey by Bank of America Corp.
The share of investors taking a higher-than-normal risk level in their portfolios registered the biggest increase over a three-month span going back to 2001, the poll showed.
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett said that he doesn’t expect a big pullback in stocks over the summer, adding that exposure to equities is not yet “extreme” and bond volatility is still low.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has struck a $500 million deal to buy rare-earth minerals from MP Materials Corp., the US producer that just last week secured backing from the Pentagon.
* Tesla Inc. opened its first India showroom, showcasing Model Y cars with a starting price of nearly $70,000, as Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker looks to tap new markets and offset slowing sales where it’s already well established.
* Air taxi startup Joby Aviation Inc. plans to double aircraft output capacity at its main production site in California, just weeks after completing piloted test flights in Dubai.
* CoreWeave Inc., a provider of AI computing power to companies including OpenAI Inc. and Microsoft Corp., said it plans to invest as much as $6 billion to set up a data center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, as the firm expands its capacity across the US.
* BlackRock Inc.’s revenue and performance fees missed estimates, even as the world’s largest money manager hit a record $12.5 trillion in assets.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s second-quarter profit surpassed analyst expectations as the bank continued to reinvest maturing securities at higher yields, fueling a 9% increase in revenue.
* Uber Technologies Inc. and Baidu Inc. plan to launch robotaxis on the ride-sharing platform in several markets outside of the US and mainland China through a multiyear partnership.
* Georgia regulators approved a plan that opens the door for Southern Co. to boost spending by as much as $15 billion to deliver a projected surge of electricity for data centers, new factories and electric vehicles.
* Albertsons Cos. raised its sales forecast for the full year but left its earnings outlook unchanged amid pressure on margins.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2%
* KBW Bank Index fell 2.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1601
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3386
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 148.86 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.1% to $116,443.69
* Ether rose 1.3% to $3,043.13
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $66.69 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,330.65 an ounce

–With assistance from Julien Ponthus.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives.  It’s what we do consistently. –Tony Robbins, b. 1960.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com